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Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Business
- Miami Herald
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Nosedives With Conservatives
Support for Donald Trump among conservative voters has seen a steady decline over the past three months, according to new polling from YouGov/The Economist. In May, Trump held a commanding approval rating of 88 percent among conservatives, with just 11 percent disapproving — a net approval of +77. But that margin has narrowed each month since. By June, approval slipped to 83 percent, with disapproval rising to 15 percent, bringing his net rating down to +68. The downward trend continued into July, with Trump's conservative approval dropping to 81 percent and disapproval climbing to 17 percent — a net approval rating of just +64, the lowest in months. Conservative voters have long been the foundation of Donald Trump's political strength — especially in primaries and battleground states where even small shifts can have outsized effects. The steady erosion of his approval among conservatives, as captured by YouGov/The Economist polling, signals potential cracks in that foundation heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond. The polling shows that economic issues are at the heart of the dip. Among conservatives, approval of Trump's handling of the economy has held steady at 81 percent in both June and July — down slightly from 85 percent in May. But perceptions of where the economy is heading have darkened. In May, 59 percent of conservatives said the economy was getting better, compared to just 14 percent who said it was getting worse. That optimism fell to 50/15 in June and 53/17 in July. Approval of Trump's handling of inflation has dropped more sharply. In May, conservatives backed his approach by a margin of 84 to 14. By June, support had fallen to 74/22, and by July 18, it was down to 66/25 — a significant net drop of 29 points in just two months. The souring sentiment comes as inflation ticked up nationally: annual inflation rose to 2.7 percent in June, up from 2.4 percent in May, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Meanwhile, Americans now face an average tariff rate of 18.7 percent, the highest since 1933, according to the Yale Budget Lab — a direct result of Trump's expansive tariff policies. Trump's signature legislative package — known as the "Big Beautiful Bill" — is also starting to lose ground among conservatives. In June, 73 percent of conservatives supported the bill, while 18 percent opposed it. Although still a majority, this level of support masks unease about its contents: critics argue that the bill prioritizes tax cuts for the wealthy while cutting safety-net programs, such as Medicaid and SNAP. Adding further strain is the backlash surrounding Trump's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. Approval among conservatives on the issue sits at just 44 percent, with 32 percent disapproving — unusually high for his base. Notably, 55 percent of conservatives believe the government is covering up evidence in the case, and 77 percent say all documents should be released. The discontent intensified after a Justice Department memo last week confirmed Epstein died by suicide in 2019 and that the government does not possess a "client list" — directly contradicting conspiracy theories promoted by some Trump-aligned figures. Trump reportedly lashed out at his own supporters, calling them "weaklings" for being "duped" by what he called a "hoax" pushed by Democrats. He later walked back the comments and directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to begin the process of unsealing grand jury materials related to Epstein. But there is one topic where Trump fares slightly better among conservatives, with the president's numbers having only seen a marginal decline since May. In July, 85 percent of conservatives approved of Trump's job performance on immigration — down slightly from 88 percent in May and up from 83 percent in June, suggesting his aggressive second-term agenda, including mass deportation operations, expanded detention facilities, and record-low border crossings, continues to resonate with much of his base. Throughout his second term, Trump has aggressively expanded immigration enforcement—launching mass deportation operations, increasing raids in sanctuary cities, and reviving thousands of old deportation cases. Meanwhile, crossings at the southern border hit a historic low last month, and he has secured billions in additional funding for border security and expanded enforcement operations. His administration has also dramatically scaled up detention capacity, allocating $45 billion to expand ICE facilities and construct large-scale temporary camps, including a tent facility in Florida nicknamed "Alligator Alcatraz." Nonetheless, broader sentiment is cooling. The latest YouGov/Economist polling shows that 69 percent of conservatives now say the U.S. is on the right track, down from 75 percent in May. It comes as Trump has seen his approval ratings dip to a second-term low nationwide. That includes the most recent Big Data Poll survey, conducted July 12 to 14, which showed 48 percent of voters approving of Trump's performance, while 49 percent disapproved. The downward trend contrasts with earlier in the year. In May, Big Data Poll had Trump narrowly above water, with 48 percent of respondents approving and 47 percent disapproving. That figure was already a notable drop from January, shortly after Trump returned to office, when the pollster recorded one of his strongest ratings: 56 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval, a net positive of 19 percentage points. That broader decline is mirrored in other major polling. Newsweek's approval tracker currently places Trump at a net minus 10 rating, with 44 percent of Americans approving and 54 percent disapproving. It is one of his lowest net approval scores in recent weeks. The latest Atlas Intel survey, conducted between July 13 and 18 among 1,935 respondents, paints a similar picture: Trump's approval rating has dipped to 44 percent, down from 45 percent last month, while disapproval has ticked up to 55 percent. That results in a net rating of minus 11—his worst showing of the term in that poll. The sharpest drop comes from YouGov/CBS News polling conducted between July 16 and 18, which shows Trump's approval at just 42 percent, with 58 percent disapproving—a net rating of minus 16. That figure represents the president's lowest approval level recorded in any national poll so far in his second term. Related Articles Electricity Prices Are Soaring Under Donald TrumpDonald Trump's 'Do Nothing Congress' is One of the Least Productive EverVideo of Jeffrey Epstein Talking About Donald Trump ResurfacesTrump Gets Silver Lining in New Poll As More Voters Approve of Economy 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs to slow spending, economic growth during H2: Conference Board
This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: U.S. economic growth will likely slow during the second half of 2025 as tariffs push up the prices of goods and dampen consumer sentiments, the Conference Board said Monday. Rising claims for unemployment insurance, gloomy consumer expectations and weak new manufacturing orders last month outweighed a bump up from a strong gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, the Conference Board said, citing components of its Leading Economic Index. While a recession is unlikely, growth in gross domestic product 'is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared with 2024,' Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. GDP will likely increase 1.6% this year, 'with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.' Dive Insight: Following President Donald Trump's announcement this month of 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU, consumers face an average effective tariff rate of 20.6% — the highest level since 1910 — and a 2.1% short-run increase in prices, according to the Yale Budget Lab. The higher prices from the planned tariffs and those announced this spring will likely set back the average U.S. household by $2,800 this year, the Yale Budget Lab said in a study published July 14. Tariffs will probably push up unemployment by 0.5 percentage point by the end of this year and, over the long run, trim 0.5 percentage point from GDP, the Yale Budget Lab said. Both public- and private-sector economists disagree over whether the import duties will trigger a brief, one-shot increase in prices or a sustained inflationary tide that sweeps across of the economy. Most economists, while expressing surprise at the resilience of the U.S. economy, forecast GDP growth will decline for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. 'The economy has slowed decisively, with GDP growth likely averaging about 1.5% in the first half from 3% over the previous three years,' Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note to clients on Thursday. After a slight gain during the first quarter, economic growth likely increased at a 2.4% annual rate during the second quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said on Friday. During the first half of 2025, the Conference Board's Coincident Economic Index measuring the current state of the economy rose 0.8%, a decline from a 1% gain during the second half of 2024, the Conference Board said. Still, all four of the index's components improved last month, including payroll employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income less transfer payments, the Conference Board said. Looking ahead, and 'based on what the data tell us today, I expect uncertainty and tariffs to restrain spending and reduced immigration to slow labor force growth,' New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday. 'As a result, I expect real GDP growth this year to be about 1 percent.' Recommended Reading Economic data 'point to headwinds ahead,' Conference Board says Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Axios
4 days ago
- Business
- Axios
U.S. still looking at 10% baseline tariff, not higher, Lutnick says
The U.S. still intends to put a baseline tariff of 10% on many smaller countries, despite recent suggestions it could go higher, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday. Why it matters: It's a small sign of relief for the market, which has watched nervously as President Trum p repeatedly suggested in recent days that baseline rates could go to 15% or even 20%. Catch up quick: Earlier this month, Trump sent letters to dozens of countries, unilaterally setting tariff rates as of August 1. Hundreds more are expected in the coming days. So far, only one of those countries, Indonesia, has made a nominal deal for a better rate than the letter imposed, though it's not clear if that arrangement is anywhere close to finalized. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that Americans — including the impact of the August 1 letters — now face the highest tariff rate since 1910, an average cost of $2,800 per household this year. What they're saying: "You should assume that the small countries, the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in Africa, they will have a baseline tariff of 10%," Lutnick said on CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday. "The bigger economies will either open themselves up or they'll pay a fair tariff to America," he said. Zoom out: Lutnick said August 1 was a hard deadline, and that no nation was going to "negotiate away" tariffs entirely. "10% is definitely going to stay. Many countries will pay higher," he said. The intrigue: CBS released a new poll Sunday morning showing 60% of respondents oppose tariffs, and 61% believe the administration is putting too much emphasis on tariffs. Lutnick dismissed the finding."They're going to love the deals that President Trump and I are doing. They're just going to love them," he said. He also dismissed any concerns about tariffs causing prices to rise. "I think you're going to see inflation stay right where it is," he said. The recent CPI report showed inflation has been creeping steadily higher in recent months, including in the goods categories most exposed to tariffs.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Are Trump's tariffs helping the US economy? Experts weigh in
President Donald Trump's tariffs tanked markets and unleashed recession forecasts when the president unveiled sweeping levies little more than 100 days ago. Now, as Trump continues to tout the policy, the economy is humming along and Wall Street is responding to each new tariff with a shrug. A recent round of tariff threats has added a new layer of uncertainty, but the monthslong track record affords economists an opportunity to evaluate what the tariffs have yielded so far. Analysts who spoke to ABC News credited the tariffs for delivering higher-than-expected tax revenue and helping to elicit some commitments from companies bent on investing in new production in the U.S. MORE: Are tariffs to blame for rising inflation? Experts weigh in But, some analysts cautioned, those company commitments carry a long time horizon and wiggle room for firms to renege upon the spending as the tariff policy fluctuates. Meanwhile, tariffs have started to push up some prices, risking a bout of inflation that could hurt consumers and disrupt the economy, they said. Trump has rolled back many of his steepest tariffs over recent months, including a sky-high levy on China, the top source of U.S. imports. In recent days, however, Trump announced plans to slap tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of countries, including 25% tariffs on top U.S. trade partners such as Japan and South Korea. In all, consumers currently face an effective tariff rate of 20.6%, the highest since 1910, the Yale Budget Lab found this week. The Trump administration touts tariffs as part of a wider set of 'America First economic policies,' which have 'sparked trillions of dollars in new investment in U.S. manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure,' according to the White House's website. In theory, levies on imports incentivize firms to build manufacturing in the U.S. as a means of averting the tax burden. Scores of companies have pledged new investment in the U.S., including tech giants Apple and Nvidia, pharmaceutical companies Merck and Johnson & Johnson as well as automakers Hyundai and Stellantis, the White House says. 'The whole idea is to encourage reshoring of manufacturing and change the balance of trade. That could all have some positive impact,' Morris Cohen, a professor emeritus of manufacturing and supply chains at Duke University, told ABC News. Companies face the choice of making costly, long-term investment decisions amid Trump's on-again, off-again tariff policies, which the White House has altered numerous times since Trump took office, some analysts said. A pair of court rulings in May thrust some of the tariffs into legal limbo, adding another layer of uncertainty as federal appeals court judges determine whether a major swath of the policies pass legal muster. 'The companies making promises are trying to politically deal with Trump,' Matias Vernengo, a professor of economics at Bucknell University, told ABC News, adding that he expects many firms will ultimately fall short of their commitments. 'It would be nice if he announced a tariff policy and stuck to it. But that's not what's happening,' Vernengo added. The Trump administration has rebuked criticism of its tariff approach, saying the flexibility affords White House officials leverage in trade negotiations with countries targeted by the levies. The tariffs, meanwhile, have yielded a burst of tax revenue as importers to pay the federal government when they bring targeted goods into the U.S. The U.S. recorded about $27 billion in tariff-related tax revenue last month, bringing total payments so far this year to more than $100 billion, Treasury Department data showed. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by the end of 2025, which would amount to nearly 1% of U.S. gross domestic product. That revenue could help ease government deficits, some analysts noted. 'The tariff revenues are more substantial than I anticipated at the start of the year,' Zandi said, noting that tariff levels had remained higher than he expected. Still, Zandi voiced skepticism about the staying power of the tax payments. 'It would not be prudent for lawmakers to count on this revenue in the future, as it is unclear whether the tariffs will remain in place given they may be found to be illegal or future Presidents may decide to lower or eliminate them under executive order,' Zandi said. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy so far has defied analysts' fears of a large, tariff-induced price spike. Still, tariffs contributed modestly to the rise of inflation last month, analysts previously told ABC News, citing the price hikes in product categories made up primarily of imports. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June compared to a year ago, matching economists' expectations but marking an uptick from a month earlier. Still, the inflation rate clocked in below the 3% recorded in January, the month Trump took office. MORE: Markets are shrugging off Trump's tariffs. Experts explain why. The price of toys -- a product dependent almost entirely on imports -- increased six times faster in June than it had just two months prior. Commonly imported products like clothes, furniture and bed linens were also among the goods that jumped in price. Vernengo, of Bucknell University, said tariffs would likely push up inflation for a temporary period, putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated and in turn risk an economic slowdown. 'Prices will go up as Trump imposes tariffs. Then, as tariffs are established and prices adjust themselves, they will stop growing,' Vernengo said. 'It's the Fed's reaction that will matter more in my view than the tariffs.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
What have Trump's tariffs achieved so far? Experts weigh in.
President Donald Trump's tariffs tanked markets and unleashed recession forecasts when the president unveiled sweeping levies little more than 100 days ago. Now, as Trump continues to tout the policy, the economy is humming along and Wall Street is responding to each new tariff with a shrug. A recent round of tariff threats has added a new layer of uncertainty, but the monthslong track record affords economists an opportunity to evaluate what the tariffs have yielded so far. Analysts who spoke to ABC News credited the tariffs for delivering higher-than-expected tax revenue and helping to elicit some commitments from companies bent on investing in new production in the U.S. MORE: Are tariffs to blame for rising inflation? Experts weigh in But, some analysts cautioned, those company commitments carry a long time horizon and wiggle room for firms to renege upon the spending as the tariff policy fluctuates. Meanwhile, tariffs have started to push up some prices, risking a bout of inflation that could hurt consumers and disrupt the economy, they said. Trump has rolled back many of his steepest tariffs over recent months, including a sky-high levy on China, the top source of U.S. imports. In recent days, however, Trump announced plans to slap tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of countries, including 25% tariffs on top U.S. trade partners such as Japan and South Korea. In all, consumers currently face an effective tariff rate of 20.6%, the highest since 1910, the Yale Budget Lab found this week. The Trump administration touts tariffs as part of a wider set of 'America First economic policies,' which have 'sparked trillions of dollars in new investment in U.S. manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure,' according to the White House's website. In theory, levies on imports incentivize firms to build manufacturing in the U.S. as a means of averting the tax burden. Scores of companies have pledged new investment in the U.S., including tech giants Apple and Nvidia, pharmaceutical companies Merck and Johnson & Johnson as well as automakers Hyundai and Stellantis, the White House says. 'The whole idea is to encourage reshoring of manufacturing and change the balance of trade. That could all have some positive impact,' Morris Cohen, a professor emeritus of manufacturing and supply chains at Duke University, told ABC News. Companies face the choice of making costly, long-term investment decisions amid Trump's on-again, off-again tariff policies, which the White House has altered numerous times since Trump took office, some analysts said. A pair of court rulings in May thrust some of the tariffs into legal limbo, adding another layer of uncertainty as federal appeals court judges determine whether a major swath of the policies pass legal muster. 'The companies making promises are trying to politically deal with Trump,' Matias Vernengo, a professor of economics at Bucknell University, told ABC News, adding that he expects many firms will ultimately fall short of their commitments. 'It would be nice if he announced a tariff policy and stuck to it. But that's not what's happening,' Vernengo added. The Trump administration has rebuked criticism of its tariff approach, saying the flexibility affords White House officials leverage in trade negotiations with countries targeted by the levies. The tariffs, meanwhile, have yielded a burst of tax revenue as importers to pay the federal government when they bring targeted goods into the U.S. The U.S. recorded about $27 billion in tariff-related tax revenue last month, bringing total payments so far this year to more than $100 billion, Treasury Department data showed. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by the end of 2025, which would amount to nearly 1% of U.S. gross domestic product. That revenue could help ease government deficits, some analysts noted. 'The tariff revenues are more substantial than I anticipated at the start of the year,' Zandi said, noting that tariff levels had remained higher than he expected. Still, Zandi voiced skepticism about the staying power of the tax payments. 'It would not be prudent for lawmakers to count on this revenue in the future, as it is unclear whether the tariffs will remain in place given they may be found to be illegal or future Presidents may decide to lower or eliminate them under executive order,' Zandi said. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy so far has defied analysts' fears of a large, tariff-induced price spike. Still, tariffs contributed modestly to the rise of inflation last month, analysts previously told ABC News, citing the price hikes in product categories made up primarily of imports. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June compared to a year ago, matching economists' expectations but marking an uptick from a month earlier. Still, the inflation rate clocked in below the 3% recorded in January, the month Trump took office. MORE: Markets are shrugging off Trump's tariffs. Experts explain why. The price of toys -- a product dependent almost entirely on imports -- increased six times faster in June than it had just two months prior. Commonly imported products like clothes, furniture and bed linens were also among the goods that jumped in price. Vernengo, of Bucknell University, said tariffs would likely push up inflation for a temporary period, putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated and in turn risk an economic slowdown. 'Prices will go up as Trump imposes tariffs. Then, as tariffs are established and prices adjust themselves, they will stop growing,' Vernengo said. 'It's the Fed's reaction that will matter more in my view than the tariffs.' Sign in to access your portfolio
