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Politico
5 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Don't knock RFK Jr.'s presidential bid just yet
TAN, RESTED AND READY — Not even a year has passed since Donald Trump's election, but the invisible primary for 2028 is already underway. Potential candidates in both parties are making appearances in the early presidential primary states, recalibrating their positions in advance of running and building their fundraising operations. None of it seems to have generated as much chatter in Washington as the groundwork being laid by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who appears to be eyeing another presidential bid. At first, the prospect of a Kennedy campaign seems outlandish. His considerable personal baggage, polarizing views and habit of trafficking in conspiracy theories might seem to be disqualifying. He's never won election to any office. If he ran as a Republican, his party credentials would be suspect — and he'd likely be running in a primary field loaded with experienced heavyweights. Yet that's the precise profile Donald Trump carried into the 2016 primary when he cut through a crowded and accomplished Republican presidential field like a buzzsaw. And RFK Jr. would be a far more formidable candidate in 2028 than in 2024, when his campaign fell apart. As HHS secretary, he has built a portfolio marked by bashing regulatory agencies, the media, mainstream medicine, and taking on foes like Big Pharma, Big Ag, Big Food, and the baby formula industry. By honing an anti-establishment message, RFK Jr. is gaining traction in an increasingly populist Republican Party. Parts of his MAHA agenda are already resonating in state capitals — particularly, but not exclusively, in red states. It's why even if he doesn't really rate in the constellation of MAGA stars — Kennedy exists in his own adjacent universe, which he oversees from his perch as secretary of Health and Human Services — he has just enough celebrity, name recognition and appeal to elements of Trump's winning 2024 coalition that he can't be easily dismissed. Those same coalition politics that boosted Trump's White House comeback bid also may have blurred traditional primary lanes ahead of 2028. RFK Jr.'s road trips to red states draw robust crowds. He already polls better than many of his prospective Republican rivals, especially among the youth vote. While Vice President JD Vance leads most polls by a wide margin, RFK ranked fourth after Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis in a June Emerson College poll. But in the spring 2025 Yale Youth Poll — which surveys both young American voters and the general population — Kennedy trailed only Vance among Republican voters. He also had the highest net favorability ratings after Vance among voters aged 18-29 and the general population. A June Economist/YouGov poll found RFK with a 70 percent job approval rating among Republicans. Polling this far out doesn't have much predictive value. But what's clear is that HHS is providing a useful platform for RFK Jr. that could not only fuel a campaign launch, but also carve out discrete parts of the core MAGA constituency for him. He has an army of online healthy-living influencers proselytizing for him, can tap into the energy of the anti-vax movement and wields a ready-made slogan — Make America Healthy Again — that's a friendly derivative of MAGA. RFK 2028 sounds far-fetched, no doubt. Kennedy did, after all, begin his political adventure running for president as a Democrat, then as an independent, before dropping out and endorsing Trump. But MAGA happily embraces converts — another recent Democratic contender for president, Tulsi Gabbard, is now a Trump stalwart ensconced in a cabinet-level position as director of national intelligence. RFK Jr.'s fate in a prospective Republican primary bid would be heavily reliant on remaining in Trump's good graces. And he'd likely be up against others with greater claims on the MAGA imprimatur — most notably Vance. But in an era of tremendous political disruption, where the major parties are inverting, traditional coalitions are fractured and longstanding campaign assumptions and traditions are being turned upside down, almost nothing can be ruled out anymore. Before writing off Kennedy, ask yourself a question: Is there anyone who thinks Trump wouldn't throw his vice president under the bus if it suited his political needs or whims at the time? Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@ Or contact tonight's author at cmahtesian@ or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie. What'd I Miss? — AI launches across the government: Federal employees will soon be able to try out popular artificial intelligence tools — part of a controversial Trump administration effort to automate more of the government. The U.S. General Services Administration said this morning it will launch USAi, a secure platform designed to let employees experiment with popular AI models made by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta. The website is framed as a way to advance the Trump administration's broader AI Action Plan and to deliver 'a competitive advantage to the American people,' GSA Deputy Administrator Stephen Ehikian said in a statement. — DC police to increase cooperation with immigration enforcement amid Trump crackdown: Officers in Washington's Metropolitan Police Department can now assist federal immigration authorities, Police Chief Pamela A. Smith wrote in an order today, a turning point for the liberal-leaning city government that comes as President Donald Trump continues to flex federal control over the city. The district's officers will be empowered to share information with immigration agencies about people at traffic stops and to transport agency employees and their detainees, per the order. Since 2020, police in the District have been bound by a sanctuary city law that has prohibited broad cooperation with federal immigration authorities. But Mayor Muriel Bowser has proposed a repeal of the law, and White House Border Czar Tom Homan on Wednesday declared DC was 'not going to be a sanctuary city.' — Texas Democrats signal they are poised to end redistricting walkout: Texas Democrats gave their clearest signal yet today that they will soon return to the Lone Star state, after decamping to stop the passage of a redrawn congressional map that adds five new GOP-leaning seats. A statement from the state House Democratic Caucus said that the lawmakers will return on two conditions, both of which are expected this week. First, that the Texas Legislature ends its first special session on Friday, and second that California lawmakers introduce their expected proposal that could offset the GOP gains in Texas. — Trump cold-called Norwegian minister to ask about Nobel Peace Prize: President Donald Trump called Norway's Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg out of the blue last month to discuss trade tariffs — as well as his bid to win the Nobel Peace Prize. The call was first reported by Norwegian newspaper Dagens Næringsliv on Thursday and was later confirmed to POLITICO by a government official in Oslo. This was not the first time Trump had raised the prize in discussions with Stoltenberg, Dagens Næringsliv noted. 'It is true that President Trump called me a few days before his conversation with Prime Minister Støre. Several of the president's staff members also participated in the conversation, including Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer,' Stoltenberg, the former NATO secretary-general, told POLITICO in a comment. — Florida to use shuttered prison as 2nd immigration detention center after 'Alligator Alcatraz': Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday that the state will open a second immigration detention center inside a now-shuttered state prison in North Florida as the fate of its first such facility in the Everglades lies in the hands of a federal judge. Florida plans to spend up to $6 million to stand up Baker Correctional Institution — which is 15 minutes away from an airport in Lake City — to hold more than 1,300 people awaiting deportation. Baker was 'temporarily closed' amid ongoing staffing problems in the state prison system. AROUND THE WORLD AFGHANS STRANDED IN PAKISTAN — Pakistani police have reportedly arrested hundreds of Afghans in Pakistan slated for resettlement to Germany, deporting some to Afghanistan. This follows suspension of a German government program that provided refuge to people deemed particularly vulnerable under Taliban rule. Around 400 Afghans awaiting resettlement to Germany in Pakistan have been arrested in recent weeks, and several dozen of them have been deported to their home country, according to a report by German newspaper Welt — which, like POLITICO, is owned by Axel Springer. The German government effectively suspended a resettlement program for vulnerable Afghans after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz came to power with a vow to drastically curtail the influx of asylum-seekers into the country. That decision stranded some 2,200 Afghans in Pakistan — among them women's rights activists and LGBTQ+ people who face oppression under Taliban rule. FIGHTING BACK — Allies fed up with Donald Trump's latest round of punishing tariffs and spending demands are hitting the president where it hurts — his favorite fighter jet. Spain, in the wake of a row with Washington over NATO's new 5 percent defense spending goal, ditched its multibillion-dollar purchase of the stealthy F-35 fighter jet. Switzerland, reeling from steep U.S. tariffs, is facing increasing pressure across the political spectrum to drop plans for its own F-35 war planes. And India, frustrated at higher U.S. prices on its goods, has reportedly decided to pause efforts to buy American combat vehicles. The moves — all made in the past two weeks — show the potential consequences of Trump's economic actions as they reverberate through allied capitals, forcing governments to reassess their defense ties with the United States. They also reinforce American industry fears that this new form of protectionism will spark retaliation, jeopardize arms sales and chip away at America's dominance as the globe's top defense supplier. Nightly Number RADAR SWEEP THE FEATHER DETECTIVE — Roxie Laybourne, an ornithologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, could identify the species of bird any feather came from. In 1972, she was called to 'the chicken capital of Maine' to testify as an expert witness at a murder trial after the victim was found covered in feathers. The trial was the first of many in which Laybourne lent her expertise to prosecute murderers, poachers, and even a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Chris Sweeney reports on how Laybourne solved the case and created the field of forensic ornithology in an excerpt of his book in Boston Globe Magazine. Parting Image Jacqueline Munis contributed to this newsletter. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
Newsweek
24-06-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Zohran Mamdani Leads Andrew Cuomo Among Wealthiest Voters
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Progressive New York Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani is outperforming former Governor Andrew Cuomo among the state's wealthiest voters in the New York City mayoral Democratic primary race, according to new polling. The latest Yale Youth Poll, conducted with YouGov among 645 voters between June 17 and 23 with a margin of error of ±5 percentage points, shows that in the final round of voting, Mamdani leads Cuomo among voters with income over $100,000 by 20 points, with 60 percent to Cuomo's 40 percent. Newsweek reached out to representatives for Cuomo and Mamdani via email for comment. Why It Matters Mamdani has set himself apart from Cuomo in the mayoral race by sharply focusing on the cost of living and economic fairness. But polls suggest Mamdani is favored by wealthier voters. Meanwhile, Cuomo leads among lower-income voters. According to the poll, the former governor has a 4-point lead among voters with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000, while he has an even bigger lead of 34 points among the lowest-income voters earning below $ 50,000. L: Former Governor Andrew Cuomo speaking during a primary debate on June 4, 2025. R: Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani speaks at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice on June 12, 2025. L: Former Governor Andrew Cuomo speaking during a primary debate on June 4, 2025. R: Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani speaks at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice on June 12, 2025. Yuki Iwamura, file and Vincent Alban/The New York Times/AP What To Know Since launching his mayoral campaign, Mamdani has cast himself as a grassroots alternative to Cuomo, running on a platform of aggressive affordability reforms—rent freezes, fare-free buses, city‑owned grocery stores, and universal childcare—funded by higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. He has vowed to reverse what he calls a housing "affordability crisis." But polling suggests his message isn't resonating with the lowest-income voters. A Marist College poll conducted from June 9 to 12 found that just 14 percent of voters earning under $ 50,000 picked Mamdani as their first choice, while 49 percent backed Cuomo. Among voters earning more than $50,000, however, the two were evenly split, with 33 percent each. Mamdani's campaign has nonetheless gained momentum in recent weeks following an endorsement from progressive New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Since then, polls have shown him gaining support, especially among younger and male voters. The latest Emerson College poll found Mamdani leading with 34 percent among male voters, ahead of Cuomo at 30 percent and Brad Lander at 15 percent. Similarly, Data for Progress showed Mamdani narrowly ahead of Cuomo among men, 34 to 33 percent. However, both surveys showed Cuomo outperforming Mamdani among women, with a lead of 9 to 10 points. One exception is the Yale/YouGov poll, which also shows Cuomo with a 10-point lead among women, but breaks the trend among men, putting Cuomo ahead by 20 points, 60 percent to Mamdani's 40 percent. Mamdani performs the strongest among young New Yorkers. According to Yale/YouGov, he leads Gen Z voters by 14 points with 57 percent support. Data for Progress shows him with 61 percent support among voters under 45, compared to just 15 percent for Cuomo. The same poll also found that housing costs are the top issue for New York City Democrats, particularly among younger and male voters. Among those under 45 years of age, 39 percent said housing was their primary concern, compared to 23 percent of those over 45. Among men, 32 percent cited it as their top issue, versus 26 percent of women. Jack Dozier, deputy director of the Yale Youth Poll, told Newsweek that while Cuomo entered the race with "a reputation and name recognition" as a former governor, "Mamdani has shown an impressive and unique set of grassroots organizing skills that have mobilized young New Yorkers (as well as young Americans nationwide)." Still, Mamdani faces a challenge: women and older voters, demographics where Cuomo holds an edge, typically turn out at higher rates in primaries. As a result, the primary is anyone's to win, Dozier said. "Polls are only race is not over between Mamdani and Cuomo—in reality, it could go either way." Overall, Cuomo maintains a lead. The Yale/YouGov poll gives him a 13-point advantage over Mamdani, with 57 percent support. A Marist poll released last week showed Cuomo ahead in both the initial and final rounds of ranked-choice voting. In the first round, 43 percent of respondents supported Cuomo, while 31 percent backed Mamdani. By the final round, Cuomo had 55 percent support, while Mamdani had 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,350 likely voters from June 9 to 12, with a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points. A poll by the conservative Manhattan Institute conducted from June 11 to 16 also showed Cuomo leading, with 56 percent support to Mamdani's 44 percent in the final round. That survey polled 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. But Emerson College's most recent poll told a different story. While Cuomo led in the first round—36.4 percent to Mamdani's 33.7 percent—Mamdani edged ahead in the final round of ranked-choice voting, 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent. The poll surveyed 833 Democratic primary voters from June 18 to 20, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. A June 6-7 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for Justin Brannan's city comptroller campaign, obtained by Politico, also showed Mamdani leading Cuomo 35 to 31 percent, within the poll's ±4.1 percent margin of error. That survey included 573 likely voters. Following the release of the Emerson poll, Mamdani's odds surged on betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, although Cuomo still retained a narrow lead in betting markets. Joseph Viteritti, the Thomas Hunter Professor of Public Policy at Hunter College, previously told Newsweek that Cuomo's name recognition has been a major advantage. "It's hard to break through that list and come out at the top, so name recognition really serves him well," he said. "He was governor for several terms, and people know who he is. It can also work against you, because he's gotten some negative press. But in the end, I think it's given him a substantial boost." Mamdani, Viteritti added, has been the race's "most outwardly progressive candidate." "He comes out as the most progressive and the most distinguished if you're looking for an alternative to Andrew Cuomo in this race," he said. As Mamdani gains traction, Cuomo has sharpened his attacks, calling Mamdani inexperienced and accusing him of proposing unrealistic policies that would require "massive tax hikes." Mamdani has pushed back, telling The New York Times that his platform focuses on making life more affordable for working-class New Yorkers, stating that affordability is "the most important issue facing New Yorkers right now." During a recent debate, Cuomo again criticized Mamdani's legislative record, saying, "He has never done anything," and noting he had only passed three bills in the State Assembly. Cuomo repeated the line from an earlier debate, arguing it would be reckless to elect someone with so little experience. Mamdani fired back: "I have never had to resign in disgrace...I have never hounded the 13 women who credibly accused me of sexual harassment. I have never sued for their gynecological records. And I have never done those things because I am not you, Mr. Cuomo." What People Are Saying Jack Dozier, Deputy Director of the Yale Youth Poll, told Newsweek: "Cuomo, as a former governor and member of a powerful NY political dynasty, came into the race with a reputation and name recognition. Meanwhile, Mamdani, aside from his tenure in the state assembly, grew his basis of support through an active grassroots campaign with an immense appeal to young voters." "Zohran Mamdani is certainly still in the race." What Happens Next While many New Yorkers voted early, others will head to the polls on Tuesday. Whichever candidate prevails will face off against a Republican candidate and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, an independent, in the November election.
Miami Herald
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Youngest voters now tilting conservative, new poll finds. What's causing shift?
A rift has emerged within Generation Z voters, with the youngest among them shifting significantly toward the right, according to new polling. What's driving the change? In the latest Yale Youth Poll, when asked who they would support in the 2026 congressional elections, voters aged 18-21 leaned Republican by 12 points, while voters aged 22-29 leaned Democratic by 6 points. 'The youngest voters are breaking sharply from their older Gen Z peers,' Zachary Donnini, the poll's lead data scientist, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. The younger cohort's alignment with the right is largely driven by men, who favored Republicans by 19 points, compared to women who favored the GOP by 4 points. Conducted April 1-3, the poll sampled 4,100 registered voters — including 2,205 voters under 30 — and has a margin of error of 1.9 percentage points. In response to the poll, political scientists and public opinion experts said that a number of factors could be playing into this intragenerational split. However, they cautioned that the findings should be replicated in other surveys before they are taken too seriously. Factors at play When examining this divide, it's important to consider which party was in power when voters came of age and became politically engaged, experts said. 'For 18-21 year old Americans who entered voting age during the later stages of the (Joe) Biden years and maintained significant dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, the Republicans represent somewhat of an alternative to the status quo,' Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, told McClatchy News in an email. 'While this cohort may not be enamored with (Donald) Trump and his administration,' Borick said, 'they still see the GOP as more likely than the Democrats to shake things up with the state of affairs they are displeased with.' By contrast, 22-29-year-olds have a different frame of reference. They likely remember Trump's first term better than their younger counterparts, 'and that was probably a factor in their thinking about preferences,' Berwood Yost, the director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, told McClatchy News in a phone interview. Yost also said that social media could have played a part in shaping voters' political beliefs. 'There's a lot of talk about social media and the way that social media may have appealed to certain groups of voters, particularly younger voters,' he said. 'I would think messaging and marketing really reinforced certain issue positions.' But, elections are fundamentally about issues, and the biggest issue of the 2024 election was the economy, Yost said. It's possible younger voters — who are just entering the workforce — were more dissatisfied with the economy than those a few years older. This kind of rightward shift is also not unprecedented. 'When you look back to the 1980s, you had this conservative movement in the (Ronald) Reagan revolution,' Yost said. 'At that point some younger voters were inclined toward the Republican party.' Grain of salt However, the results of the Yale Youth Poll should be taken with a grain of salt — for a few reasons, experts said. For one, freshly minted voters tend not to be firmly grounded in their political beliefs. 'The 18- to 21-year-old cohort has voted in only one presidential election and maximum two congressional elections,' John Mark Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, told McClatchy News in an email. 'Partisan identification is very plastic among young voters and strengthens over time. A distinctive pattern of political support will have more meaning if it persists.' Additionally, these findings are from one poll, so drawing broad conclusions from it would be a dubious enterprise. 'Averages of polls are always better than single polls,' Hansen said. 'I wouldn't want to bet the farm on a handful of people in one poll.' Donnini, the lead data scientist at the Yale Youth Poll, said as much himself, cautioning against overinterpretation in a post on X. 'As is true of any study, we have to be careful about just one result,' Yost said. Still, the results are 'interesting,' he said, adding, 'If we see it in other studies, it's something to dig into.'
Bloomberg
23-04-2025
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Will Gen Z's Pivot to Republicans Last?
What happens when American teenagers get stuck at home, prevented from experiencing the coming-of-age social milestones that most adults took for granted? They become Republicans, apparently. That is perhaps the most striking nugget in the Yale Youth Poll, a survey conducted April 1 – 3 and released last week that examined the political proclivities of voters ages 18 – 29. The pollsters discovered a crucial difference between voters ages 18 – 21 and those ages 22 – 29: The older subgroup plans to vote for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections by a margin of 6.4 percentage points, but the younger set prefers Republicans by 11.7 points.
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Poll finds stark divide in political preference for young voters
Which political party do voters aged 18-29 prefer to support with their ballot? The answer depends on how old they are, according to a recent poll. The Yale Youth Poll, which was conducted from April 1 to April 3, found that voters aged 18 to 21 favored Republicans more, while those aged 22 to 29 preferred Democrats. Respondents were asked whether they would vote for a Republican or a Democratic candidate for Congress if an election were held today. Among voters aged 18 to 21, 46.4% said they would vote for a Republican, while 34.6% said they would vote for a Democrat. When the question was asked of voters aged 22 to 29, 47.3% said they would vote for a Democrat, while 40.9% said they would vote for a Republican. The poll featured a sample size of 4,100 registered voters, including 2,025 voters aged 18-29. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9% for the full sample and a 1.8% margin for the youth sample. In 2008, 2012 and 2020, Democratic presidential candidates won voters under 30 by 60% or more, according to NPR. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton only managed to win 55% of the youth vote, NPR reported. An NBC exit poll found that former Vice President Kamala Harris amassed the support of 54% of voters under 30. The poll also found an ideological divide among male and female voters under 30. The poll found that 42.5% of males under 30 viewed themselves as liberal, while 42.3% said they identified as conservative. A total of 20% of respondents identified as moderate. Among females under 30, 52.8% consider themselves liberal, while just 28.6% said they identify as conservative. The poll found that 17.7% of women under 30 view themselves as moderate. However, the poll did not reveal why voters aged 18 to 21 were more willing to vote for Republicans than those aged 22 to 29. In terms of how all the respondents —regardless of their age —viewed President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, Former President Joe Biden, Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, all were viewed in an unfavorable light. Forty-six point five percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of Trump, while 52.7% said they had an unfavorable opinion of the president. Forty-one percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of Vance, while 44.6% said they did not. Some 38.3% of respondents said they had a favorable view of Biden, while 59.5% said they had an unfavorable opinion of the former president. Slightly more than 42% said they had a favorable opinion of Harris, while 55.1% said they did not. As for Musk, 29.8% said they had a favorable view of the billionaire, while 58.7% said they viewed him unfavorably. 'Evil is being defeated,' Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene says after death of Pope Francis Polling expert: Republicans in 'different universe' over what to do if Trump bucks courts Trump White House purges COVID website. 'Lab leak' theory replaced it Elon Musk could soon leave DOGE because of 'nasty and unethical attacks' Why a pro-Trump ex-Pentagon official is now 'exiled' from the MAGA movement
