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News18
6 hours ago
- Politics
- News18
India Holds Nuclear Edge Over Pakistan, Leaps Ahead In Missile Tech: Global Arms Report
Last Updated: SIPRI's latest report shows India edging out Pakistan in both capability and posture as other nuclear powers race to expand arsenals amid rising global tensions As the Israel–Iran war escalates and global security tensions mount, the spectre of nuclear conflict has once again moved to the forefront. But beyond the world's largest stockpiles, it is regional rivalries that are drawing renewed scrutiny. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) Yearbook 2025, India has not only widened its nuclear lead over Pakistan in terms of warhead numbers, but is also making significant technological advances in missile systems and delivery capability. SIPRI, an independent institute based in Sweden, has tracked global armaments, disarmament, and international security trends since 1966. Its annual yearbook is widely regarded as one of the most credible assessments of the world's nuclear balance. So, who's leading the nuclear race in 2025 and who's catching up fast? SIPRI's new data shows how each country is rearming in a more dangerous world. Russia Russia remains the world's leading nuclear power in terms of total warheads. SIPRI estimates it holds roughly 5,880 nuclear weapons, with many deployed on missiles and submarines, and around 2,100 kept on high operational alert, ready to launch at short notice. Despite these staggering numbers, Russia continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal, aiming to upgrade ageing systems and expand its strike capability. But 2024 saw setbacks, including delays in the Sarmat ICBM, a key next-generation missile, and slower progress across other platforms. With the New START treaty—the last remaining US–Russia arms control agreement—set to expire in 2026, and no new deal in sight, Russia is widely expected to rearm empty silos and increase its deployed warheads, especially as tensions with the West remain high. SIPRI suggests this could mark the start of a more unpredictable and unrestrained nuclear posture. United States Closely behind, the United States possesses an estimated 5,244 nuclear warheads, according to SIPRI, many of which are deployed on submarines, strategic bombers, and land-based missiles. Like Russia, a significant number of these are maintained on high operational alert, capable of being launched within minutes. SIPRI notes that the US is in the midst of a comprehensive modernisation programme, involving the replacement of ageing Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the construction of new ballistic missile submarines, and the development of next-generation air-launched cruise missiles. However, the report points out that funding and planning issues in 2024 led to delays and increased costs, raising questions about the programme's long-term timeline. At the same time, the US is adding new non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons to its arsenal—a move SIPRI highlights as potentially destabilising, as such weapons are seen as more likely to be used in a limited conflict. With China's nuclear arsenal expanding rapidly, SIPRI warns that internal pressure is building within US defence circles to rearm deactivated launchers and broaden deterrence options—a trend that could accelerate the global arms race. China China is the most dynamic player in the current arms race. SIPRI estimates its arsenal at over 600 nuclear warheads as of early 2025, up from roughly 500 the year before. This makes it the fastest-growing nuclear power in the world. Beijing has built over 350 new ICBM silos in three major desert regions and mountainous areas — indicating an intent to drastically increase its second-strike capabilities. SIPRI also notes that China may now be keeping some warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, a departure from its earlier policy. At its current pace, China could possess 1,500 warheads by 2035, rivalling the US and Russia in strategic reach, a shift that could fundamentally redraw nuclear deterrence norms. France France holds around 290 nuclear warheads, a number that has remained relatively stable. But behind the scenes, it is actively investing in next-generation systems. In 2024, France continued work on a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, while upgrading its current ballistic missile with a new warhead modification. President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly suggested that France's nuclear weapons could play a broader role in defending Europe, not just France. This idea of giving the French nuclear deterrent a 'European dimension" implies that, in a crisis, France might extend its nuclear protection to other European Union countries. If taken seriously, such a shift could reshape NATO's internal dynamics, especially at a time when the US commitment to European security is under question, and some European states are reconsidering their reliance on the American nuclear umbrella. United Kingdom The United Kingdom has an estimated 225 nuclear warheads, and according to SIPRI, this number is expected to increase in the coming years. In 2024, the newly elected Labour government reaffirmed its commitment to building four new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) as part of maintaining the UK's continuous at-sea deterrence—a policy under which at least one submarine armed with nuclear weapons is always on patrol. However, SIPRI points out that operational and financial constraints continue to affect the programme's progress, raising doubts about whether construction and deployment will stay on schedule. The 2023 Integrated Review Refresh — the UK's formal defence policy update — had already approved raising the cap on the total number of warheads, reversing earlier disarmament trends. This signals a shift in the UK's strategic posture, moving it further away from its long-standing policy of gradual nuclear reduction. India India now holds an estimated 172 nuclear warheads, according to SIPRI, a modest increase from previous years. However, the more significant development lies not in the number of warheads, but in technological advancements and evolving military posture. India is working on canisterised missile systems, which allow nuclear warheads to be stored and transported pre-mounted onto missiles in sealed containers. If these systems are deployed with warheads already 'mated," it would mark a major doctrinal shift, enabling faster launch readiness and possibly indicating a move toward a more flexible deterrence strategy. There is also speculation, highlighted in SIPRI's assessment, that India's future missiles may be equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), which would allow a single missile to carry and deliver several nuclear warheads to different targets. This would significantly increase strike capability and survivability, particularly in a first-strike or counterforce scenario. Pakistan Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads, and SIPRI notes that it continues to develop new missile delivery systems and produce fissile material at a steady pace—signs of a country actively expanding its arsenal despite lacking transparency or robust oversight mechanisms. Unlike India, which maintains a declared No First Use policy, Pakistan's nuclear doctrine remains deliberately ambiguous and heavily focused on short-range tactical nuclear weapons, designed for battlefield use. This approach, often framed as a deterrent against conventional Indian military superiority, is viewed by many analysts as highly destabilising, since it lowers the threshold for nuclear use in a crisis and increases the risk of early escalation. SIPRI suggests that Pakistan's arsenal could grow further over the next decade, especially as it tries to match India's advancing delivery systems and strategic capabilities. However, Pakistan's continued reliance on opaque doctrine, coupled with its history of nuclear proliferation links and political instability, makes its expanding arsenal a significant source of regional and global concern. Israel Israel's nuclear arsenal is estimated at 80 to 90 warheads, though the country continues to maintain its long-standing policy of nuclear opacity—neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons. This ambiguity is strategic, allowing Israel to project deterrence without inviting direct international scrutiny or arms control obligations. What is evident, however, is that Israel is actively modernising its nuclear delivery capabilities. In 2024, the country conducted a missile propulsion test, which SIPRI assesses is likely related to the Jericho ballistic missile programme—a suspected key component of its nuclear force. Additionally, upgrades have been observed at the Dimona reactor, the core facility believed to support Israel's weapons programme through plutonium production. In the context of the ongoing Israel–Iran war, these developments take on heightened significance. While Iran is not believed to possess nuclear weapons, SIPRI and other expert assessments confirm that it has made substantial progress in uranium enrichment and advanced centrifuge development. This gives Iran the technical capacity to produce a weapon, even if it has not yet done so. The combination of Iran's nuclear latency, regional hostility, and Israel's undeclared but advanced arsenal keeps the strategic balance on a knife's edge. These dynamics are made even more volatile by the absence of any regional arms control framework, the collapse of the JCPOA nuclear deal, and the potential for miscalculation amid open conflict. SIPRI's findings underscore that nuclear ambiguity in an active war zone can be just as destabilising as overt nuclear threats. North Korea SIPRI estimates that North Korea assembled around 50 nuclear warheads as of early 2025 and has produced enough fissile material, primarily enriched uranium and plutonium, to build up to 40 more. This makes North Korea a small but rapidly advancing nuclear power, especially considering its isolated status and limited international oversight. In 2024, South Korean officials warned that North Korea was in the final stages of developing a tactical nuclear weapon—a smaller, shorter-range bomb intended for battlefield use rather than large-scale destruction. If deployed, such weapons would lower the threshold for nuclear use, making them potentially more likely to be used in a regional skirmish or limited conflict. Adding to the concern, Kim Jong Un issued a directive in November 2024 calling for a 'limitless" expansion of the country's nuclear programme, signalling that Pyongyang has no intention of slowing down or re-entering negotiations anytime soon. With diplomatic engagement stalled and military tensions continuing on the Korean peninsula, the risk of miscalculation, misinterpretation, or accidental escalation remains dangerously high, especially given the absence of crisis communication mechanisms between North Korea and its neighbours. SIPRI flagged these developments as part of a broader trend of increasing nuclear risk in unstable regions. Why These Numbers Matter In 2025 What makes SIPRI's findings urgent is not just who holds the most weapons, but how global norms are eroding. The New START treaty between the US and Russia is nearing expiration, with no replacement in sight. China is rising, but unwilling to enter arms control negotiations. And advanced technologies, from AI to missile defence, are destabilising assumptions about deterrence. top videos View all Meanwhile, as the Israel-Iran war rages, one side is confirmed to be nuclear-armed and the other is feared to be nuclear-capable. With no regional arms control, no dialogue mechanisms, and rising disinformation, the threshold for escalation is lower than ever. As SIPRI researcher Matt Korda bluntly warns: 'Nuclear weapons do not guarantee security. They come with immense risks of escalation and catastrophic miscalculation, particularly when disinformation is rife, and may end up making a country's population less safe, not more." About the Author News Desk The News Desk is a team of passionate editors and writers who break and analyse the most important events unfolding in India and abroad. From live updates to exclusive reports to in-depth explainers, the Desk More Get breaking news, in-depth analysis, and expert perspectives on everything from politics to crime and society. Stay informed with the latest India news only on News18. Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : Israel-Iran tensions nuclear warheads Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 16, 2025, 13:19 IST News india India Holds Nuclear Edge Over Pakistan, Leaps Ahead In Missile Tech: Global Arms Report
DW
16 hours ago
- Politics
- DW
Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race – DW – 06/16/2025
A dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging at the same time as arms control is severely weakened, according to the latest SIPRI assessment. AI and space technologies are also radically redefining nuclear capabilities. There are nine nuclear-armed states in the world and nearly all of them continued with intensive nuclear modernization programs in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions. That is one of the key findings of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) Yearbook 2025, an annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security. In the mid-1980s, nuclear warheads, bombs and shells worldwide numbered around 64,000. Today, the figure stands at an estimated 12,241. That trend now looks set to be reversed, according to the latest assessment. "The most worrying single thing that we see in the nuclear arsenals at the moment is that the long-term reduction in the numbers of nuclear warheads is coming to an end," SIPRI Director Dan Smith told DW. The end of post-Cold War nuclear disarmament Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of the Cold War, the dismantling of retired warheads — warheads removed from the nuclear stockpile — has outpaced the deployment of new ones. While it is common practice for nuclear-armed states to modernize and upgrade their nuclear capabilities, Smith says there has been an intensification of this process since late in former US President Barack Obama's final term, with more investment in new generations of missiles and carriers. Germany rethinks future of nuclear security To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video "Already for several years before then, the security horizon worldwide had been darkening and the nuclear-armed states were already starting to introduce these processes of what we would call this 'intense' process of modernization, so not just a little bit of tinkering, but some real steep changes," Smith said. SIPRI researchers conclude that of the world's estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles: either placed on missiles or located on bases with operational forces, or in central storage that could potentially be deployed. An estimated 3,912 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, with around 2,100 of those kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of those belonged to Russia or the US, but China may also now keep some warheads on missiles, according to the assessment. Among the world's nuclear-armed states — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — Russia and the US possess 90% of all nuclear weapons. SIPRI analysts now warn that more and more states are considering developing or hosting nuclear weapons, with revitalized national debates about nuclear status and strategy. This includes new nuclear sharing arrangements: Russia claims to have deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, while several European NATO member states have signaled willingness to host US nuclear weapons. International security deteriorating for over a decade In 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he railed against the US-dominated world order, NATO's eastward expansion and disarmament. But just two years later in 2009, Obama announced the goal of total nuclear disarmament in Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic. "The existence of thousands of nuclear weapons is the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War," he said. He went on to say that the US would "take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons" and negotiate a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia. That treaty was signed, and came into force in 2011. But in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden administration published its 2022 Nuclear Posture Review which identified the modernization of the US nuclear arsenal as a top priority. Amid rising tensions over the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration made the modernization of its nuclear arsenal a top priority Image: Frederic Kern /IMAGO In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill halting Russia's participation in the New START treaty. "The tide of insecurity has been building slowly since 2007-08, through 2014, onto this moment when the waves start crashing down in February 2022," Smith said. "I think that is when maybe many ordinary citizens woke up to this deterioration which was more than a decade old by that time." The bottom line is: the world's nuclear arsenals are being enlarged and upgraded. SIPRI estimates that China now has at least 600 nuclear warheads and that its nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's. India is also believed to have slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2024, while Pakistan continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material — a key component of nuclear weapons. Israel, which on June 13 launched strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, killing military leaders and nuclear scientists, maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity over its own nuclear capabilities. However, it is believed to be in the process of modernizing its own nuclear arsenal, as well as upgrading a plutonium production reactor site in the Negev desert. AI and space technologies up the threat of nuclear war In his introduction to the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, Smith warns of the prospect of a new nuclear arms race that carries "much more risk and uncertainty" than during the Cold War era — largely due to the rise of artificial intelligence and new technologies in the fields of cyber capabilities and space assets. "The coming nuclear arms race is going to be as much about AI, cyberspace and outer space as it is about missiles in bunkers or on submarines or bombs on aircrafts. It's going to be as much about the software as about the hardware," Smith said. This complicates the question of how to control and monitor nuclear weapons and stockpiles when the competition between nuclear-armed states used to be more or less about numbers. There are long-term discussions about AI in relation to what are commonly called "killer robots" (Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems), and the use of automated and semi-automated drones since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine — but not so much in relation to nuclear weapons. Why French are wary of Macron's nuclear umbrella for Europe To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Artificial intelligence allows for a large amount of information to be processed extremely quickly and in theory this should help decision makers to react more quickly. However, if something goes wrong within the software or a system totally reliant on LLMs, machine learning and AI, a small technical glitch could potentially lead to a nuclear strike. "I think there has to be a red line that probably all political leaders and military leaders will also agree with, that the decision on nuclear launch cannot be made by artificial intelligence," Smith said, pointing to the example of Soviet Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov. In 1983, Petrov was on duty at the Soviet nuclear early-warning system command center 62 miles south of Moscow when the system reported the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile from the US, with four more behind it. Luckily, Petrov suspected the warning was a false alarm and waited instead of relaying the information immediately up the chain of command — a decision which likely prevented a retaliatory nuclear strike, and in the worst-case scenario, full-scale nuclear war. "I suppose the big question is that in a world of artificial intelligence, who plays the part of Lieutenant Colonel Petrov?" Smith asked.
