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First Post
09-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Operation Sindoor: India to maintain escalation dominance, de-escalation rests on Pakistan
Under Operation Sindoor that is now in its third day, India will keep the escalation dominance and maintain that de-escalation rests on Pakistan. India will ensure that the cost imposed on Pakistan will be greater than whatever cost Pakistan would try to impose on India. read more Pakistan's senior military and civil officials, along with residents, attend the funeral of a person killed in Indian airstrike on a terrorist site in Punjab province's Muridke on May 7, 2025. (Photo: AFP) Under Operation Sindoor that is now in its third day, India will keep the escalation dominance and maintain that de-escalation rests on Pakistan. After Pakistan attacked northern and western India with drones and missiles on Thursday, India responded forcefully and the two sides exchanged fire throughout the night. The Pakistani barrage had come after India struck Pakistani air defence systems earlier in the day in response to Pakistani attempted attacks on 15 Indian cities the previous night. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While India started Operation Sindoor with restraint, India has turned up the heat gradually as Pakistan has refused to mend its way. While India targeted only terrorist sites in the early hours of Wednesday, Pakistan sought to attack Indian military and civilian targets on Wednesday night — including the holy city of Amritsar. It appears that Pakistan assessed that India would go for a muted response and opt for de-escalation. That turned out to be a gross miscalculation. In the morning, India responded by hammering Lahore and destroying the Pakistani Army's coveted air defence system in the beating heart of Pakistan's political power — after all Pakistan is Punjab and Punjab is Pakistan. India's message is clear that India will keep turning the heat up, offer Pakistan no off-ramp, and force it to de-escalate, says Yusuf Unjhawala, a scholar of geopolitics at the Takshashila Institution. 'From its end, India will not de-escalate. The ball to de-escalate is in Pakistan's court as it is the country's actions that have led India to initiate Operation Sindoor. The ideal choice for Pakistan would be to de-escalate after last night's losses. If Pakistan chooses to respond, India would undo the restraint quicker than expected,' says Unjhawala. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made it clear with his remarks. After a call with his Italian counterpart, Antonio Tajani, he said that India has had a 'targeted and measured response' so far but 'any escalation will see a strong response'. India to keep heat on, ball to in Pakistan Among the many uncertainties of ongoing hostilities, one thing is certain: India will not stand down. It is understood that India will not just keep the heat on with continued escalation dominance, India will also set the case for the nature of escalation — if escalation is forced by Pakistan's continued misadventures. It is understood that one of the fundamental ideas driving the Indian thinking in the ongoing conflict is that the costs that India imposes on Pakistan will be greater than whatever cost Pakistan would try to impose on India. For an unsuccessful strike on Amritsar, India struck Lahore — the seat of Pakistan's political power. For unsuccessful strikes on Indian military stations, India destroyed Pakistan's prized China-made HQ-9 air defence system. As Pakistan's perpetual war on India is driven by a self-consuming jihadist national ideology, the only way to reduce the frequency of its jihadist misadventures is to impose costs such that misadventures are minimised. To be sure, for an artificial nation created from scratch with the sole idea of opposing India, 100 per cent deterrence is not possible, but imposing severe costs will minimise misadventures and ensure yearslong deterrence. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD ALSO READ: Operation Sindoor: 'As jihad drives Pakistan, India can only impose costs — deterrence is impossible' Unjhawala, the geopolitics scholar at Takshashila, tells Firstpost that it's incorrect that the Balakot airstrike did not bring any deterrence. 'The Balakot airstrike ensured that Pakistan did not do anything like that for six years when many thought it would attempt something spectacular after Article 370's abrogation. India is looking to put in place years of deterrence with the current episode as well. India should tell Pakistan that such strikes would be a norm even if five or ten people are killed. India should set a new normal,' says Unjhawala. The way India struck Pakistan yesterday speaks for itself and should deter its leaders, says Unjhawala. 'If striking Lahore, the heart of the country; Islamabad, the capital; and Rawalpindi, the seat of the almighty military; would not prove to be enough, and Pakistan would still attempt something, Indian response would be a notch higher. India will likely bring the navy into action. So far, India has controlled the escalation ladder and there is no indication that India intends to de-escalate or offer Pakistan a face-saving off-ramp and rightly so,' says Unjhawala. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India gains insights into China's weapons The hammering of Pakistan also brings India into Chinese weapons and military systems. With the destruction of Pakistan's China-made air defence systems and interception of Chinese missiles and fighter planes, India has also gained insights into Chinese air defence systems and missiles that Pakistan uses. Insights into Chinese systems will improve India's position regarding China as well. 'With the reports of India taking out air defences, and reportedly its HQ-9 system which is a long-range surface-to-air missile system of China, China will be very concerned that India was able to strike it down because similar missile systems have been deployed on the northern border with us. Also, in today's press conference, they said that they took out an air defence system in last night's action. That will be the Chinese system,' says Unjhawala.
First Post
07-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Operation Sindoor: As India strikes at Pakistan's beating heart of terror, will it set new normal?
By striking at terrorist facilities in Pakistan's Punjab, India has struck at the beating heart of terrorism's soul in Pakistan. India has to make such severe costs a new normal to minimise Pakistan's misadventures. read more Pakistan's senior military and civil officials, along with residents, attend the funeral of a person killed in Indian airstrike on a terrorist site in Punjab province's Muridke on May 7, 2025. (Photo: AFP) Just like the Balakot airstrike called out Pakistan's nuclear bluff, Operation Sindoor has brought a paradigm shift in the India-Pakistan relationship. With strikes in Pakistan's Punjab's Bahawalpur and Muridke, India has struck at the beating heart of terrorism's soul in Pakistan. The nine sites that India struck are spread across the length of northeastern and eastern Pakistan and cover around half of the country. The strikes were not against any one entity but against three of the biggest Pakistan-based terrorist groups: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen. The LeT and JeM witnessed their headquarters being struck by India with JeM chief Masood Azhar losing at least 10 members of his family. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD To grasp the gravity of Indian strikes, consider the fact that headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have been attacked, which were not even attacked in 2019 when 49 Indian soldiers were killed in the Pulwama attack, says Yusuf Unjhawala, a geopolitics scholar at the Takshashila Institution. Unjhawala tells Firstpost, 'Pakistan's Punjab is the beating heart of Pakistan's terrorism movement. Bahawalpur is also the home of Pakistani Army's 31 Corps. By bombing the Jaish headquarters at Bahawalpur, India has demonstrated the ability to bomb the headquarters of the corps headquarters as well. Similarly, Muridke is next door to Lahore, which is the seat of the Punjab's politics. As Punjab is Pakistan and Pakistan is Punjab, a strike at the doorstep of Lahore is a huge deal.' ALSO READ: Operation Sindoor: 'As jihad drives Pakistan, India can only impose costs — deterrence is impossible' While what happens next is up to Pakistan, what is indeed in India's hand now is whether Operation Sindoor would become a one-off instance of India imposing costs on Pakistan or a new normal where India would impose costs so severe that Pakistan would be forced to reduce the frequency of its attacks. 'India has to set a new normal' To be sure, India cannot impose assured deterrence on Pakistan as it is a country driven by a jihadist national ideology — as argued in this article. As Pakistan was founded as an artificial nation just out of opposition to India in the name of religion, a religious war on India has been its national ideology since inception. Instead of imposing deterrence, which is impossible, India's approach over the past decade has been to impose costs and set a new normal after every major misadventure from Pakistan. After the Uri attack in 2016, India publicly acknowledged cross-border ground attacks. After the Pulwama attack in 2019, India struck Pakistan-proper for the first time since 1971. Similarly, after the Pahalgam attack, India has not just hit Pakistan-proper but hit half the country — and struck on the beating heart of the country. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India should make such responses a new normal, says Unjhawala. 'The question that the Indian leadership has to address is whether Operation Sindoor-like response should be the new normal. I believe it should be. India has to respond to incidents with even fewer deaths than Pahalgam with cross-border strikes so that Pakistan knows that there is no acceptable number of deaths. Pakistan has to know that there would be a cost to its actions. India would need to set a new normal where Pakistan is assured of swift and strong retaliations at critical locations in case of acts of terror inside India,' says Unjhawala.
