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Possibility of Iran's retaliation to US strikes keeps markets on their toes
Possibility of Iran's retaliation to US strikes keeps markets on their toes

First Post

time10 hours ago

  • Business
  • First Post

Possibility of Iran's retaliation to US strikes keeps markets on their toes

President Donald Trump said the strikes had a 'limited' objective to destroy Iran's atomic program. Still, he warned that any retaliation on US targets would be met with 'far greater' force and hinted at the possibility of regime change read more Iran has vowed to avenge the "unprovoked" attack on its nuclear facilities by the US. Representational image: AP File Iran has kept up its attacks as Israeli forces launched new strikes on the Islamic Republic's military sites and airports. Iranian leaders have not yet disclosed how they might target US forces in the region in retaliation for Washington's attack on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites, but they warned American assets were vulnerable. The US operation on Sunday (May 22), which marked its entry into the conflict, involved 125 aircraft, submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, and 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, striking Iran's. It was the first time the bunker busters were used in combat. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD President Donald Trump said the strikes had a 'limited' objective to destroy Iran's atomic program. Still, he warned that any retaliation on US targets would be met with 'far greater' force and hinted at the possibility of regime change. Markets on alert The attack and its fallout pushed oil prices up nearly 6 per cent when markets opened in Asia, before easing. Brent crude was trading at $77.65 per barrel as of 8:37 am GMT. US stock futures also fell as investors considered the impact on energy supplies and inflation. 'An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation,' Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud said in a note. At the United Nations, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council meeting that Tehran's response would be determined by 'the timing, nature and scale' chosen by its armed forces. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would keep targeting Israel and pointed to American bases in the region as a weakness, though it stopped short of openly threatening US troops. Damage to Iran's nuclear sites unclear Although Trump said the three nuclear sites hit by US bombers were 'totally obliterated,' US officials acknowledged it was too early to assess the full extent of the damage, particularly at Fordow, which is buried deep underground. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine said more time was needed to determine the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, estimated at more than 400 kilograms enriched to 60 percent. The International Atomic Energy Agency told the Security Council it had no way to verify the condition of the sites or the location of the uranium. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Strait of Hormuz under watch Iran's parliament on Sunday called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz , a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments. However, such a decision would require approval from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council. Iran may also face challenges in organising a direct military response. Russia and China, key allies, have so far offered only statements of support. Russian officials stated their security agreement with Tehran does not include mutual defence. China, which relies on Gulf energy imports, is unlikely to support actions that threaten oil flow or raise prices. Militias aligned with Iran, long used to conduct regional operations, have also not entered the conflict, leaving Iran increasingly isolated as it weighs its next move.

US strikes at a fragile moment for global economy
US strikes at a fragile moment for global economy

Time of India

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

US strikes at a fragile moment for global economy

New York: US strikes on Iran 's three main nuclear facilities come at a fragile moment for the global economy , and the outlook now hinges on how forcefully the Islamic Republic retaliates. The World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Monetary Fund have all downgraded their global growth forecasts in recent months. Any significant increases in oil or natural gas prices, or disturbances in trade caused by a further escalation of the conflict, would act as yet another brake on the world economy. "We'll see how Tehran responds, but the attack likely puts the conflict on a escalatory path," Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud wrote in a report. "For the global economy, an expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation.?" The rising geopolitical risks intersect with a potential escalation in tariffs in the coming weeks as President Donald Trump's pauses of his hefty so-called "reciprocal" levies are due to expire. The biggest economic impact from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely be felt via surging oil prices. Post the US strike, a derivative product that allows investors to speculate on price swings in crude oil surged 8.8% on IG Weekend Markets. If that move were to hold when trading resumes, IG strategist Tony Sycamore said he projects WTI crude oil futures will open at around $80 per barrel. Live Events

US strikes on Iran come at fragile moment for the global economy
US strikes on Iran come at fragile moment for the global economy

Time of India

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Time of India

US strikes on Iran come at fragile moment for the global economy

US strikes on Iran 's three main nuclear facilities come at a fragile moment for the global economy , and the outlook now hinges on how forcefully the Islamic Republic retaliates. The World Bank , the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Monetary Fund have all downgraded their global growth forecasts in recent months. Any significant increases in oil or natural gas prices, or disturbances in trade caused by a further escalation of the conflict, would act as yet another brake on the world economy. 'We'll see how Tehran responds, but the attack likely puts the conflict on a escalatory path,' Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud wrote in a report. 'For the global economy, an expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation.?' The rising geopolitical risks intersect with a potential escalation in tariffs in the coming weeks as President Donald Trump's pauses of his hefty so-called 'reciprocal' levies are due to expire. The biggest economic impact from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely be felt via surging oil prices. Post the US strike, a derivative product that allows investors to speculate on price swings in crude oil surged 8.8% on IG Weekend Markets. If that move were to hold when trading resumes, IG strategist Tony Sycamore said he projects WTI crude oil futures will open at around $80 per barrel. Live Events Much will hinge on near-term events. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US attacks are 'outrageous and will have everlasting consequences.' He cited the United Nations Charter on provisions for self-defense and said Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest and people. Bloomberg Economics sees three options for Iran to respond: Attacks on US personnel and assets in the region Targeting regional energy infrastructure Close the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint using underwater mines or harassing ships passing through In the extreme scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is shut, crude could soar past $130 per barrel, according to Daoud, Tom Orlik and Jennifer Welch. That could take US CPI near 4% in the summer, prompting the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to push back the timing of future rate cuts. About a fifth of the world's daily oil supply goes through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors such as Saudi Arabia. The US is a net exporter of oil. But higher crude prices would only add to the challenges the US economy is already facing. The Fed updated economic projections last week, marking down its forecast for US growth this year to 1.4% from 1.7% as policymakers digested the impact on prices and growth of Trump's tariffs. As the largest buyer of Iranian oil exports, China would face the most obvious consequences from any disruption to the flow of petroleum, though its current stockpiles may offer some respite. Any disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would have a significant impact on the global liquefied natural gas market too. Qatar, which makes up around 20% of the global LNG trade, uses this route for exports and has no alternative passage. That would leave the global LNG market extremely tight, pushing European gas prices significantly higher, Bloomberg Economics has noted. While investors may be concerned that supplies could be interrupted if hostilities escalate, OPEC+ members, including de facto group leader Saudi Arabia, still have abundant spare capacity that could be activated. In addition, the International Energy Agency may choose to coordinate the release of emergency stockpiles to try and calm prices. 'The Middle East tensions represent another adverse shock to an already weak global economy,' Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said in a report ahead of the latest escalation. 'Higher oil prices and the associated rise in CPI inflation would provide central banks with a major headache.'

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