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Spring housing market stagnates despite increased listings
Spring housing market stagnates despite increased listings

Business Journals

time23-04-2025

  • Business
  • Business Journals

Spring housing market stagnates despite increased listings

Homebuyers are gaining leverage and price cuts just hit a milestone, but other factors are putting a damper on what is usually a strong spring real estate market. Like much else about the U.S. economy, tariffs and broader uncertainty are weighing on home sales amid the industry's crucial spring season. In March, more than 375,000 homes were newly listed on the market — an increase of nearly 9% compared to the same time last year, according to Zillow Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ZG) research. But newly pending sales were flat compared to last year, despite slightly lower average mortgage rates in March 2025 compared to a year ago. That's despite several aspects of the market — including price cuts hitting their highest point in at least seven years — shifting to favor buyers. Inventory rose to 1.15 million homes in March, an increase of 19% from last year and the most inventory for buyers in the month of March since 2020, according to Zillow. Inventory is now about 24% below 2018 and 2019 averages for the spring housing market. Stay on top of the latest real estate news by signing up here for The National Observer: Real Estate Edition. During the four-week period that ended April 13, the median home-sale price was down from the same time a year ago in 10 of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas, most especially in Texas and Florida, according to Redfin Corp. (NASDAQ: RDFN). That's because supply is outpacing demand in most places, especially in hot Sun Belt metros that've seen a lot of homebuilding and in-migration that's cooled since its pandemic peak. Homes today are also sitting on the market for longer. The typical home that went under contract in March had been listed for 47 days, according to Redfin. That's the slowest pace tracked by Redfin since the Covid-19 pandemic. These factors are adding up to a sluggish spring homebuying season, usually the start of the housing market's most active time of year. And while the U.S. housing market is finally shifting to favor buyers, the underpinnings for that change aren't necessarily in buyers' favor. "We really haven't seen that big spring lift that's in the traditional spring selling season, where sales spike up and you hit that peak," said Sean Fergus, executive director of economic research at real estate data firm Zonda. "It feels like it's a little bit in a holding pattern, with so much uncertainty and volatility in the market right now." Among new-home sales tracked by Zonda, 650,355 new homes sold in March at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, a decline of 3.2% from February and down 11.5% from a year ago. In its monthly survey, Zonda also found 32% of builders lowered their prices in March, 53% held prices flat and 15% raised prices. In February, 21% of builders lowered their prices from the month prior, 61% kept prices the same and 18% raised their prices. The slowdown in new-home sales comes as builders are grappling with higher materials and labor costs because of White House tariff and immigration policy. "Some of the markets are seeing softness in home prices, like Florida and Texas, and an increase in new home inventory sitting there," said Brian Bernard, director of industrials equity research at Morningstar who tracks public homebuilders. "If the spring selling season is solid, it would work through that, but it feels like this season has been mixed, at best. If [builders] don't have a great spring selling season, that's more of a reason for pullback on starts." One positive from the amount of resale listings coming to market means the market is moving to a healthier inventory level than it's had for some time, Fergus said. More options within the greater housing market is ultimately a good thing, he added. And while new home sales have pulled back about 10% in the past year, according to Zonda, they're still 4% higher than they were at this time in 2019, Fergus said. "[More inventory] could have longer upside potential, especially if rates come down, attracting more potential buyers," Fergus said, although he added Zonda is not expecting mortgage rates to come down significantly in the near term. Mortgage rates, a key lever in the housing market, have also not moved much recently, with the 30-year fixed rate hitting an average of 6.83% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Rates have largely been hovering in the mid- to high 6% to low 7% range for the past year. Shift to a buyer's market The change happening in the housing market is somewhat nuanced. It's not that buyer demand has recently or suddenly dropped off but, rather, demand from homebuyers isn't growing while supply is. Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin, said homebuyer demand has actually been weakening since mid-2022, when interest rates began to rise. But since that time, and through 2024, supply remained low. Inventory in recent weeks and months has been picking up, through both new construction and resale homes. "You might expect that, since 2023 or 2024, as people get more used to these high mortgage rates, demand would naturally start to increase," Zhao said. "And demand would have to increase in some sense if you have more homeowners selling their homes — a lot of them have to buy another home if they're move-up buyers. Demand is somehow not increasing." That's because economic turmoil has sidelined buyers who now may be more reticent to make what's likely the biggest investment of their lives by purchasing a house, both Zhao and Fergus said. Cameron LaPoint, assistant professor of finance at the Yale School of Management whose research includes housing affordability, said in addition to consumer sentiment, major climate events, such as last fall's hurricanes and the wildfires in Los Angeles in January, may also be cutting demand for housing. He added tariff's ripple effects could make other monthly housing costs more expensive, too, such as homeowners insurance, which has already been soaring in recent years because of more severe weather risks from climate change. Homes are now spending four additional days on the market compared with this time last year, according to And more sellers are slashing their prices, with about 23% of the listings on Zillow receiving a price cut in March — the highest share for any March since at least 2018, according to Zillow. While price cuts may be welcome in a housing market laden with affordability challenges, especially since the pandemic, many would-be buyers are pausing big purchases right now. "Some are saying, if [there's] a recession, mortgage rates will fall, that will bring back housing demand," Zhao said. "If you're in a recession with the [higher] tariffs, I'm not even sure mortgage rates will fall. That also doesn't necessarily bring back demand, depending on the severity of the recession. If we assume mortgage rates stay where they are, you can have higher demand than what we're seeing right now." For buyer demand to come back meaningfully, consumers need to have more certainty about the direction of the economy, she added.

Buy the Dip on This Real Estate Stock
Buy the Dip on This Real Estate Stock

Yahoo

time15-02-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Buy the Dip on This Real Estate Stock

Shares of Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) are up 0.7% at $78.78 at last glance, following last session's 9.4% loss. The bear gap occurred after the company's , despite strong fourth-quarter results. Prior to yesterday's slide, Z hit a Feb. 11 three-year high of $89.39. The stock is outperforming with a 35.1% year-over-year gain, and could soon push back toward those highs, if history is any indicator. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Z has come within striking distance of its 80-day moving average after a lengthy period above it (defined by White as 80% of the time over the past two months and 8 of the last 10 trading days). This has occurred five other times over the last three years, after which the stock was higher one month later 60% of the time with an average 10.4% return. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put Zillow stock at $86.97 -- much closer to its recent peak. An unwinding of pessimism could provide tailwinds as well, should the stock start to rebound. Despite the stock's recent rally, short interest has been building for the last two weeks, and represents 6.7% of the stock's available float. It would take over four days to cover, at Z's average pace of trading. Plus, the stock's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 34 is nearing "oversold" territory, while its 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 91% of readings from the past year. Sign in to access your portfolio

Zillow Group Inc (Z) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst Market ...
Zillow Group Inc (Z) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst Market ...

Yahoo

time12-02-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Zillow Group Inc (Z) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst Market ...

Total Q4 Revenue: $554 million, up 17% year over year. Full-Year 2024 Revenue: $2.2 billion, up 15% year over year. Q4 For Sale Revenue: $428 million, up 15% year over year. Q4 Rentals Revenue: $116 million, up 25% year over year. Q4 Net Loss: $52 million, representing 9% of revenue. Q4 EBITDA: $112 million, resulting in a 20% EBITDA margin. Full-Year 2024 EBITDA Margin Expansion: 200 basis points to 22%. Q4 Mortgages Revenue: $41 million, up 86% year over year. Q4 Multifamily Properties: 50,000, up from 37,000 at the end of 2023. Cash and Investments at End of Q4: $1.9 billion. Convertible Debt Outstanding at End of Q4: $419 million. Q1 2025 Revenue Outlook: $575 million to $590 million, implying a 10% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Q1 2025 EBITDA Outlook: $125 million to $140 million, equating to a 23% margin at the midpoint. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with Z. Release Date: February 11, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) reported a 17% year-over-year increase in Q4 revenue, surpassing their outlook range. The company achieved double-digit revenue growth for the full year 2024, with a 15% increase to $2.2 billion, despite a challenging housing market. Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) expanded its EBITDA margin by 200 basis points in 2024, demonstrating effective cost management. The Rentals segment saw a 25% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, driven by a 35% increase in multifamily property listings. Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) is on track to achieve a $5 billion revenue target with a 45% EBITDA margin in a normalized housing market, indicating strong future growth potential. Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) reported a GAAP net loss of $52 million in Q4, representing 9% of their revenue. The housing market remains subdued, with expectations of low to mid-single-digit growth in 2025, potentially impacting Zillow's growth. The company faces ongoing challenges in the rate environment, which could affect their mortgage revenue growth. Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z) anticipates a more challenged housing market in Q1 2025, with relatively flat growth expected. The company made a $100 million upfront payment to Redfin as part of a partnership, which could impact their financials in the short term. Q: Can you discuss the path to achieving 75% of connections through Enhanced Markets and the benefits observed so far? Also, elaborate on the strategic rationale behind the Redfin partnership and its financial implications. A: Jeremy Wacksman, CEO, explained that the goal is to increase Enhanced Markets connections from 21% to 35% by the end of the year, eventually reaching 75%. This involves scaling agent partnerships and integrating loan officer capabilities. The Redfin partnership, as detailed by CFO Jeremy Hofmann, involves a $100 million upfront payment and aims to expand Zillow's reach, benefiting both companies and enhancing the value for property managers. Q: Regarding the 2025 outlook for positive GAAP net income, how do you plan to manage fixed and variable costs, and what role does advertising play? A: Jeremy Hofmann, CFO, stated that achieving GAAP profitability involves outperforming the housing market, maintaining a flat fixed cost base, and leveraging stock-based compensation. Variable costs and marketing will be managed opportunistically, with investments in growth areas like rentals and Zillow Home Loans. Q: How is AI expected to impact Zillow's business, particularly in terms of cost structure and customer experience? A: Jeremy Wacksman, CEO, expressed optimism about AI's potential to enhance efficiency for customers, partners, and employees. AI can streamline workflows, improve customer interactions, and support agents and loan officers, ultimately making the marketplace more efficient. Q: What factors contributed to the Q4 revenue growth being slightly below market growth, and how does the Q1 guidance reflect share gains? A: Jeremy Hofmann, CFO, noted that the housing market softened at the end of the year, impacting Q4 results. However, Zillow expects to grow revenue by 10% in Q1, outperforming a flat housing market, and aims for low to mid-teens growth in 2025. Q: Can you elaborate on the strong growth in mortgage revenue and its connection to Enhanced Markets? Also, what is your view on the current housing market dynamics? A: Jeremy Wacksman, CEO, highlighted that the growth in mortgage revenue is driven by the Enhanced Markets strategy, with mid-teens adoption rates in mature markets. He noted that the housing market faces an affordability and availability crisis, but Zillow continues to gain share and outperform despite these challenges. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio

Match Names Zillow Co-Founder Rascoff as CEO, Replacing Kim
Match Names Zillow Co-Founder Rascoff as CEO, Replacing Kim

Bloomberg

time04-02-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Match Names Zillow Co-Founder Rascoff as CEO, Replacing Kim

By Updated on Save Match Group Inc. named Zillow Group Inc. co-founder Spencer Rascoff as its new chief executive officer, replacing Bernard Kim who has struggled to end a persistent decline in subscribers to the company's flagship dating app Tinder. The appointment of Rascoff, who joined Match's board last year following discussions with activist investor Elliott Investment Management, is effective immediately, Match said in a statement late Tuesday. Kim, who had served as CEO for less than three years, is also stepping down from the company's board.

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