03-08-2025
Pinpointing Pollution (Part 1) — The Mpumalanga town where South Africans suffer most
Thubelihle, a township in Mpumalanga, appears unremarkable on a map — until the layers are added: coal plants, population density, lack of healthcare and clouds of ash. It's here that our geo-journalism investigation reveals how pollution settles hardest where people are most vulnerable.
While Eskom contemplates the costs and implications of compliance with minimum emission standards and out-of-touch politicians extol the virtue of coal as an unblemished boon for South Africa and communities in Mpumalanga, ordinary men, women and children are denied their Section 24(b) Constitutional rights.
In the coal-rich heartlands of Mpumalanga, South Africa, residents breathe some of the world's most polluted air. This reality is felt most acutely in Thubelihle, a community of about 20,000 within eyesight of Eskom's Kriel and Matla Power Stations, and ringed by numerous mines.
Using Google Earth Engine, Daily Maverick layered satellite-derived pollution exposure data with indicators of vulnerability, including poverty, lack of healthcare access and proximity to emissions sources, to identify one of South Africa's most at-risk communities.
Thubelihle, our analysis shows, is at the confluence of severe air pollution, fly ash waste carried on winds and levels of socioeconomic and infrastructural deprivation that arguably make this Mpumalanga community among the most vulnerable to the silent killer that is air pollution.
But the small community is not an isolated case. This geo-journalism project points to a broader national crisis where data and lived experience reveal the constitutional failure to secure clean air for millions of people across South Africa.
The power of the map lies in what it revealed before a single interview was conducted. Before we arrived in Thubelihle, the data told us that this community was not just heavily polluted — it was structurally disadvantaged in ways that compound that pollution's harm.
On the ground and in person with these ordinary men, women and children who call Thubelihle home, Daily Maverick was given an unvarnished and ultimately woeful account of daily life under a polluted sky.
'The air is very dirty. It's very dirty,' said resident Thandeka Hlatshwayo.
'Very, very dirty,' she emphasised pointedly, saying that, 'It's [badly] affecting us. It's like ash,' in between coughing fits.
'I'm very, very sick,' she said as she burst into another wracking coughing fit.
Alongside her, Zinhle Zungu, Thembisile Silwambane and Sweetness Gininda, speaking in unison, told Daily Maverick that it was extremely common in the community for people to have respiratory problems and illnesses.
If 100 people from the community were gathered, 95 would probably have respiratory complications and suffer from constant ill health, Zungu speculated.
In a community of more than 20,000 people, there is only one clinic available with an average waiting time of at least two to three hours. The other options are to either make the nearly one-hour journey to eMalahleni if they're lucky enough to have access to a car or to a GP in nearby Kriel; both expensive and suboptimal propositions for a community where employment is scarce and money is tight.
The Thubelihle Community Health Centre – the community's sole healthcare facility – is visibly under-resourced. Staff there declined to comment on illness trends without provincial authorisation – a refusal that echoes systemic dysfunction in public health transparency and responsiveness.
Asked how often they go to the clinic, Hlatshwayo said, 'Me, I think not even monthly. Maybe a week, three or four times [per week].'
Gininda said, 'The ash and pollution are very, very dangerous because even if you are here with your car, the ash is coming, you can check [how particulate matter settles on the car]. Every time in the morning, if your car is outside, you will see the ash from Eskom, especially Eskom, every morning. Every morning.'
'So we even don't benefit to what Eskom [is doing] because we are living here at Thubelihle, but we don't work. Even the mines, they are affecting us. We are coughing, we are going to the clinic, so we really don't know who we must talk to or who will assist us because we are really affected by these mines and Eskom,' she said.
'We are suffering every day. Every day.'
Asked about a neat pile of coal in the yard, Zungu said 'we are using it [for cooking and heating]' because, Thembisile added, 'there is no electricity this side', despite the Kriel Power Station within eyesight.
'Imagine you've got a sick child and you don't know how to help the child, when you go to the clinic at some point you don't receive the medication. There is no medication so we are forced to have medical aid or maybe always have some cash on your side so you can cover the child in case of the emergency, so now you can't even do that because there is no job, you can't afford to do that. You can't afford to do anything. Some of us are the breadwinners, so if I'm not working, then everything is standing still. It's not workable,' said Zungu.
'Yoh, it is so difficult to stay here in Kriel,' added Gininda.
'Even the eyes,' said Silwambane, 'the air is affecting the eyes. Every day you wake up in the morning with a sore throat. Every day.'
Zungu said, 'And at some point you don't even know how to to approach this matter, because you'll find some of the community members, if they get affected by the mines or something like that and if they go and approach [the] mine in terms of like 'man, you need to do what's right by us', then you'll get the community members being shot at by the police. Like there is no help at all. There's no help.'
Asked what they thought would be workable solutions, Gininda said jobs and greater engagement from Eskom and the mines in the area would go a long way.
'At least if they give us jobs … then we can afford to go … to the doctors.'
'The first problem is air pollution. The second one is unemployment. Kriel is a very small town; we should be working, all of us. We shouldn't have this issue of all of us not working here. We have a lot of mines and two power stations surrounding us, but we are crying still,' said Zungu.
Science behind the suffering
But just how bad is living a few kilometres from two coal-fired power stations and at least three mines?
Dr Jamie Kelly is the lead of the Health Impact Assessment team at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends, causes and health impacts, as well as the solutions to air pollution.
'Among the various pollutants emitted by Eskom's coal-fired power stations, sulphur dioxide (SO₂) stands out as having the greatest impact on public health and air quality,' said Kelly.
This is due to two main reasons. 'SO₂ is directly harmful to human health. It is a toxic gas that irritates the respiratory system, contributing to asthma attacks, bronchitis and other lung diseases. Children, the elderly and those with existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable.'
Moreover, 'SO₂ leads to the formation of PM2.5, a deadlier pollutant. In the atmosphere, SO₂ undergoes chemical reactions to form fine particulate matter (PM2.5) – tiny particles that penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream. PM2.5 is widely regarded as the most dangerous air pollutant for human health, linked to heart attacks, strokes, lung cancer and premature death.'
'Importantly,' Kelly stressed, 'both SO₂ and the PM2.5 it forms can travel long distances, often hundreds of kilometres from the source. This means emissions from a single plant can affect not only the surrounding communities, but also people living far beyond the plant's immediate vicinity, across provinces and even national borders.'
Asked how Eskom's noncompliance with minimum emission standards (MES) translates into public health outcomes, Kelly told Daily Maverick, ' According to our 2023 study, emissions from Eskom's coal fleet are projected to cause approximately 79,500 air pollution-related deaths between 2025 and the eventual decommissioning of the plants. However, if Eskom were to meet the legally mandated MES, this number would fall to 34,000 deaths over the same period.'
'This means that continued non-compliance is projected to cause an additional 45,000 premature deaths – avoidable harm directly linked to excess emissions of pollutants like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).'
Daily Maverick previously reported that Eskom CEO Dan Marokane told members of Parliament in June that it could cost the South African taxpayer up to R257-billion for the necessary upgrades for Eskom to meet government-mandated MES. Compliance, in this way, could translate into the equivalent of up to a 10% tariff increase.
This revelation was preceded by Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment Dion George's granting of limited exemptions from minimum emission standards for eight of Eskom's coal-fired power stations in March 2025.
In seeming confirmation of Daily Maverick's independent mapping exercise, Eskom's presentation to Parliament in June noted that Kriel Power Station did not meet minimum emissions standards for particulate matter.
The exemptions granted by the minister, as Daily Maverick reported, came with 'strict' conditions, including emission reduction measures and health interventions.
Among these: Eskom must deploy air quality monitoring stations and a data-free alert app within eight months, appoint an environmental health specialist within three months and extend community health screening programmes within six months. Mobile clinics and greenspace initiatives should further support affected communities; real-time emissions data must be published immediately, with additional monitoring stations installed within 12 months.
'Eskom significantly inflated cost estimates'
Dr Kelly told Daily Maverick that despite Eskom's claims of extreme costs to meet compliance, 'Eskom has significantly inflated its cost estimates, leading to the misleading conclusion that compliance is unaffordable.
'This conclusion is based on flawed assumptions: Eskom uses inaccurate data on pollution control costs; it makes unrealistic assumptions about how many plants would require retrofitting; it fails to account for the fact that SO₂ standards have been weakened, reducing the scale of intervention needed.'
'Together,' he said, 'these distortions lead to grossly exaggerated cost projections – masking the reality that compliance is both feasible and economically justified when the public health benefits are properly considered.'
The costs of compliance are felt either way, whether borne directly by taxpayers via Eskom or the costs to human health and lost economic productivity, as Dr Lwando Maki, President of the Public Health Association of South Africa (Phasa), explained.
'It is estimated here that the total quantifiable economic cost of air pollution from coal-fired generation in South Africa is in the region of $2.37-billion (R43-billion) annually. This is made up of impacts in terms of early death, chronic bronchitis, hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease and a variety of minor conditions leading to restrictions on daily activity, including lost productivity.'
'Air pollution is considered a silent public health emergency; it is responsible for eight million premature deaths globally each year, and it accounts for about a quarter of heart attack deaths and a third of all deaths from stroke, lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,' said Maki.
'Eskom not the only pollution source'
Though Eskom is undoubtedly a major contributor, it would be incorrect to assign all air pollution in Mpumalanga and beyond to the utilities' activities, Professor Rebecca Garland explained.
Garland is an associate professor in the Department of Geography, Geoinformatics & Meteorology at the University of Pretoria. She has a background in atmospheric science, with a focus on air quality and climate change.
In an interview with Daily Maverick, Garland explained that while Eskom and the broader coal value chain in Mpumalanga were large contributors to the state of the air pollution in Mpumalanga and beyond, that was not the whole story.
'Eskom does make some primary particles that may form in their stack, but they also contribute to secondary particles. That said, a lot of our exceedances are driven by ozone and particulate matter. There's a lot of sources from both of them as well, but Eskom is definitely one of them,' said Garland.
'So if we're talking only about what they are emitting, because of course, the coal sector as a whole, with the mining and everything, that's much larger. What Eskom is emitting itself, the most work has been done on particulate matter, and because they emit so high up, they contribute a small amount to what we breathe, but because they emit high up, it impacts a larger area a little bit.'
'All of the modelling shows that they (Eskom) contribute a little bit in a wide area to particulate matter. So that's one of the reasons why the numbers get quite big [for] the health impacts because it impacts a larger area.'
Garland said, 'The things that are emitted at the ground are the things that also impact health directly. The ground-level sources, such as burning coal in one's house, burning wood in one's house, traffic, vehicles and such, because they're right where we inhale them, they generally will dominate the exposure of people.'
She said really tall stacks were 'designed to disperse pollutants'.
'So, it is good in the one sense that nobody gets a large amount of pollution, a large amount of particulate matter, but it's dispersed over a larger area. If individuals think about what dominates, what they breathe, it isn't only Eskom. It contributes to it, but there are so many sources of pollution.'
Garland said, 'PM levels are highest in low-income settlements… and urban areas, the areas with high industry as well would have high pollutants, which pollutant would depend upon the industries that are there themselves.'
In other words, the smoke, ash and particulate matter that hang in Thubelihle's air come from many sources, but it is the people who live here who pay the price.
You can see and hear from these people in Part 2 of this story here. DM
