Latest news with #analysts
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why ITT Inc. (NYSE:ITT) Could Be Worth Watching
Today we're going to take a look at the well-established ITT Inc. (NYSE:ITT). The company's stock saw a significant share price rise of 34% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. The company is inching closer to its yearly highs following the recent share price climb. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at ITT's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. According to our valuation model, ITT seems to be fairly priced at around 13% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy ITT today, you'd be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company's true value is $172.18, then there's not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that ITT's share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility. View our latest analysis for ITT Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by a double-digit 18% over the next couple of years, the outlook is positive for ITT. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation. Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in ITT's positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven't considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value? Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on ITT, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop. Since timing is quite important when it comes to individual stock picking, it's worth taking a look at what those latest analysts forecasts are. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here. If you are no longer interested in ITT, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Estimating The Fair Value Of Endeavour Mining plc (TSE:EDV)
Endeavour Mining's estimated fair value is CA$40.34 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With CA$42.07 share price, Endeavour Mining appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Our fair value estimate is 15% lower than Endeavour Mining's analyst price target of US$47.51 Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Endeavour Mining plc (TSE:EDV) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.06b US$1.13b US$775.4m US$473.1m US$395.1m US$352.4m US$328.4m US$315.2m US$308.7m US$306.5m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x10 Analyst x11 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ -16.49% Est @ -10.80% Est @ -6.81% Est @ -4.02% Est @ -2.07% Est @ -0.70% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6% US$985 US$980 US$623 US$353 US$274 US$227 US$197 US$176 US$160 US$148 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.1b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$307m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.5%) = US$6.2b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$6.2b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= US$3.0b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$7.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$42.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Endeavour Mining as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.992. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Endeavour Mining Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market. Opportunity Expected to breakeven next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio. Threat Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable. Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Endeavour Mining, we've compiled three essential items you should consider: Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Endeavour Mining . Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for EDV's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Globe and Mail
6 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Quant Signals Point to High-Probability Trades in UNH, CVX and SOUN This Week
In the film 'Enemy at the Gates,' an early scene set in the midst of the Battle of Stalingrad shows the classic Soviet meatgrinder attack: essentially, it's an attempt to overrun enemy positions with massive scale, irrespective of the cost. Because this brute Russian logic applies throughout the underlying society, it's a human rights catastrophe. But applied to data? The statistical implications are impregnable and that's the beauty of the Playmaker forecasting model I've been using over the past month-and-a-half period. Fundamentally, the discipline of trading — specifically options trading — focuses on probabilities. Because the framework is short term and defined, the emphasis is less on the 'why' of a particular asset or security and more on the 'how': how much, how fast and, most importantly, how likely. Generally, there are two ways of approaching the probabilistic dilemma. The standard American or western approach is to attempt to find signals and patterns in the continuous scalar signal that is the share price. Here, stochastic calculus and partial derivatives are deployed to estimate future price ranges. However, with the advent of artificial intelligence, analysts no longer need to estimate probabilities; they can directly count the datapoints in brute fashion at blistering scale and speed. But in order to make data comparisons across vast ranges of time, it's important to compress this demand profile into its most elemental, binary form. And that's what the Playmaker does, count tens of thousands of market breadth datapoints — or sequences of accumulation and distribution — to identify highly probabilistic trades. I'm not here to tell you why I think these stocks may move higher. Frankly, that's irrelevant. No, I'm letting the data guide the discourse. Below are three stocks to put on your watchlist for the coming week. UnitedHealth (UNH) Let's start with a controversial idea in the form of UnitedHealth (UNH). The healthcare giant has just about hit every branch of the ugly tree. You don't need me to rehash the same tired narratives. What you might not be aware of is that from a market breadth perspective, UNH stock may be signaling a reversal pattern. In the past two months, UNH stock has printed a '4-6-D' sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a net negative trajectory across the 10-week period. In 66% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 2.88%. Should the 4-6-D sequence pan out as projected, UNH stock could potentially reach over $310 within a week or two. What makes this setup so intriguing is that, as a baseline, the chance that a long position will be profitable over any given week is only 54.49%. Therefore, the 4-6-D shifts the odds firmly in favor of the bullish speculator. With the above market intelligence in mind, I'm looking at the 305/310 bull call spread expiring June 20. This transaction involves buying the $305 call and simultaneously selling the $310 call, for a net debit paid of $260. Should UNH stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward is $240, or a payout of over 92%. Chevron (CVX) Thanks to widescale societal changes combined with economic challenges, circumstances have not been favorable for the oil industry. Since the start of the year, supermajor Chevron (CVX) has struggled for traction, with CVX stock losing almost 6%. For context, the benchmark S&P 500 — which isn't exactly storming up the charts — is up half-a-percent. Still, market breadth data provides a different impression of the hydrocarbon juggernaut. In the past two months, CVX stock printed a 3-7-D sequence: three up weeks, seven down weeks, with a net negative trajectory across the 10-week period. Notably, this relatively rare pattern generates a 70.27% probability that the following week's price action will rise, with a median return of 2.6%. On Friday, CVX stock closed at $136.70. If the implications of the 3-7-D pan out predictably, it may soon reach over $140. Now, Chevron exemplifies why a Barchart Premier membership is worth its weight in gold. With Premier access, traders can drill down the available bull spreads for the June 20 expiration date. Specifically, the 138/140 bull spread is enticing because $140 is a legitimately rational target and the payout is robust at over 104%. In my opinion, the aforementioned spread is favorably mispriced. SoundHound AI (SOUN) I don't mean to rehash an idea that I already discussed just a few weeks ago. Still, SoundHound AI (SOUN) is awfully intriguing because of its relatively low share price and high popularity among retail traders. This presents on occasion a favorably combustible mix that, if timed correctly, could generate significant gains in a short period. A few weeks ago, I mentioned that SOUN stock had printed a 3-7-D sequence: three up weeks, seven down weeks, with a net negative trajectory across the 10-week period. At the time, I mentioned that the pattern generated a 58.33% probability that the following week's price action will result in upside, with a median return of 13.58%. This time around, we're back at a similar juncture with a 3-7 sequence. However, the twist is that the 10-week period has resulted in a positive trajectory. The 'U' iteration of the 3-7 has materialized only six times since SoundHound's public market debut. And in all six cases, the following week's price action swung higher, with a median return of 15.08%. Generally, I take 100% success ratios with a huge grain of salt. Still, the 3-7 sequence, whether of the up or down variety, ultimately favors the bulls. If you're willing to play the numbers game, the 10/11 bull call spread expiring June 20 is awfully tempting.
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Ambarella First Quarter 2026 Earnings: Beats Expectations
Revenue: US$85.9m (up 58% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: US$24.3m (loss narrowed by 36% from 1Q 2025). US$0.58 loss per share (improved from US$0.93 loss in 1Q 2025). Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 8.2%. Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in the US. Performance of the American Semiconductor industry. The company's shares are down 15% from a week ago. It's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Ambarella, and understanding them should be part of your investment process. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Fair Value Of Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE)
The projected fair value for Ameren is US$91.75 based on Dividend Discount Model Current share price of US$96.88 suggests Ameren is potentially trading close to its fair value Our fair value estimate is 11% lower than Ameren's analyst price target of US$103 Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We have to calculate the value of Ameren slightly differently to other stocks because it is a integrated utilities company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.4%. Relative to the current share price of US$96.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = US$3.2 / (6.4% – 2.9%) = US$91.8 Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ameren as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Ameren Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average. Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Integrated Utilities market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows. Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Ameren, we've put together three further aspects you should further research: Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ameren (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about. Future Earnings: How does AEE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
