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Newsweek
4 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Who Is Ali Larijani? Iran's New Security Czar
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Ali Larijani has surged back into Iran's corridors of power as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, taking a decisive role in steering the country's regional and defense strategy. A senior advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Larijani has moved quickly in his new role, traveling to Moscow, Baghdad and Beirut to reinforce alliances, manage Tehran-aligned proxies, and signal Iran's influence amid rising tensions with the United States and neighboring countries. Newsweek has reached out to Iran's Foreign Ministry for comment. Why It Matters Larijani's re-emergence signals Tehran's reliance on experienced, trusted figures to steer its regional strategy. His influence could consolidate Iran's network of proxies and allies, reinforce its positions in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, and affect how Iran navigates its relations with Washington and other regional powers. Ali Larijani listens to a question during a press conference in Tehran, Iran, on December 1, 2019. Ali Larijani listens to a question during a press conference in Tehran, Iran, on December 1, 2019. Vahid Salemi/AP Photo What To Know Larijani's role as Iran's top security official and as a senior adviser to the country's supreme leader places him at the core of Tehran's strategic and defense operations. Dr. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek: "Ali Larijani's appointment as Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security and designation as the country's representative marks the return of a pragmatic conservative close to the leadership to a critical post just weeks after the war with Israel." Previous Positions Before his latest appointment, Larijani held influential but less central roles in security policymaking. A founding member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and former nuclear negotiator, he headed state media and served as Speaker of Parliament from 2008 to 2020 when he decided to step down. These roles emphasized legislative, diplomatic and advisory work, making his current position a clear return to the heart of Iran's defense and regional strategy. Ali Larijani, right, head of Iran's National Security Council, gestures as Hezbollah supporters gather to welcome him outside Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 13, 2025. Ali Larijani, right, head of Iran's National Security Council, gestures as Hezbollah supporters gather to welcome him outside Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 13, 2025. AP Photo/Bilal Hussein A tour of influence Since taking on his new role, Larijani has traveled to Moscow, Baghdad, and Beirut. His meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in late July saw high-level discussions on regional security and cooperation. In Baghdad, he met with Iraqi leaders, laid a wreath at the site of the killing of Qassem Soleimani—the famed IRGC general assassinated in a U.S. drone strike ordered by then-President Donald Trump in January 2020—and discussed Tehran-aligned proxies. Larijani visited Beirut on Wednesday, meeting with the Lebanese president and parliament speaker amid a heated domestic debate over Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political and militant group. The Lebanese army is drafting legislation to bring all armed groups under state control, but Hezbollah has warned it will resist any attempts to disarm until Israel withdraws from contested areas. Ali Larijani, left, meets with the Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 13, 2025. Ali Larijani, left, meets with the Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 13, 2025. Bilal Hussein/AP Photo What People Are Saying Dr. Sanam Vakil, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House: "His selection signals a shift toward a more unifying, experienced regime insider capable of managing both domestic political tensions and sensitive regional diplomacy. Larijani's track record as parliament speaker and nuclear negotiator suggests Tehran may seek a more calibrated security and foreign policy approach. His experience positions him to navigate complex regional dynamics while maintaining cohesion within Iran's political structures." What Happens Next Larijani's return to high-level diplomacy and security management marks a new chapter for Iran's strategic operations. As the country continues to engage with regional allies and respond to U.S. policies, his role in coordinating defense, diplomacy, and domestic stability will be closely watched.
France 24
13-06-2025
- Business
- France 24
Gulf countries fear Israel-Iran spillover
"Gulf states are very much caught between a rock and a hard place," Sanam Vakil, director of the Chatham House think-tank's Middle East and North Africa Programme told AFP. While "they are quietly applauding the further weakening of Iran they face real risks and have to play their cards carefully", she said. Their close ties to Israel's protector Washington, which maintains military bases in the region, and their proximity to Iran -- and its missiles -- pose risks. Vakil said that "Saudi diplomats are distancing themselves from Israel and condemning the strikes as a means to stay out of this conflict". The unfolding situation is playing out against a recent diplomatic rapprochement Riyadh has been building with Tehran ever since China in 2023 brokered an agreement aiming to restore ties. "This is a notable difference with the situation that prevailed in the region 10 years ago, when Saudi Arabia was sort of inciting the United States to strike Iran, calling it the 'head of the snake'," said Karim Bitar, a lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at Paris's Sciences Po university. Indeed, as Tehran reeled from Israel's attacks and planned retaliation, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan called his Iranian counterpart and "stressed the importance of dialogue to address disputes". Stability at risk "Gulf countries realise that this Israeli attack will jeopardise their economic interests as well as the entire stability" of the region, Bitar said. That is a major preoccupation of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has been focusing on economic growth, giga-projects at home and diversification away from oil. During Donald Trump's first US presidency, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had pushed for a stronger stance against Iran. Gulf countries supported Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. But Gulf sentiment began to change after the United States failed to provide significant backing following attacks blamed on Tehran, analysts said. A 2019 attack -- claimed by Yemen's Huthis but blamed by Riyadh and Washington on Tehran -- hit Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing plant and Khurais oil field, temporarily halving the kingdom's crude output. Tehran denied involvement. The UAE too has been targeted by attacks from the Huthis that hit Abu Dhabi in 2022. Seeking to avert attacks by Iran and its proxies, especially as they host US bases that could become targets in the wake of a broader conflict, Gulf monarchies have pursued a detente. "The greatest concern in the Gulf now will be to what extent the United States will have to rely on their bases to assist in the defence of Israel," said Middle East analyst Andreas Krieg. US 'red line' While Trump's administration has distanced itself from Israel's operation, it has warned Iran not to hit US targets in the Middle East. "It has... drawn a firm red line, warning that any attacks on US personnel or military installations will provoke a response," Vakil said. She added, however, that "for now, Iran is unlikely to target Gulf infrastructure or assets". The leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar last month had urged Trump, as he visited the region, to not order US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and to pursue a deal instead, according to the US news outlet Axios. "The Gulf states had hoped that Trump would show strong leadership and would contain (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu's neo-conservative tendencies to escalate," said Krieg. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme had been going on between Washington and Tehran, although with little headway. Oman had been readying to host a sixth round of talks on Sunday, before Israel's attack threw that into doubt. For Bitar, the Israeli strikes seemed to be trying to "torpedo" the US-Iran talks. "What will be the US reaction? Will they maintain their blind and unconditional support for Israel, or will they try to go back to the negotiating table and reach a new deal?" he asked.
New York Times
08-04-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
An Explosive Clock Is Ticking on Iran and Its Nuclear Program
Talks between the United States and Iran, which President Trump said on Monday would begin on Saturday in Oman, face considerable problems of substance and well-earned mistrust. But time is short for what is likely to be a complicated negotiation. 'We're at a fork in the road, heading toward a crisis,' said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. While Mr. Trump has recently threatened Iran with 'bombing the likes of which they have never seen before,' he has also made it clear that he prefers a diplomatic deal. That reassurance — made in the Oval Office sitting next to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who has pressed for military action — will be welcomed widely in the Arab world. Even if the target is the Islamic Republic of Iran, with all of its ambitions for regional hegemony, Arab countries from Egypt through the Gulf fear the economic and social consequences of an American and Israeli war, especially as the killing in Gaza continues. But Mr. Trump's public demands — that Iran stop nuclear enrichment, hand over its large supply of enriched uranium and destroy its existing nuclear facilities — will almost surely be rejected by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, as an unacceptable humiliation and surrender. How far both sides are willing to compromise is unclear, but Mr. Trump is well known for making ultimate demands at the start and then searching for a deal. This weekend's talks are expected to be at a high level and include Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and reportedly Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Russia and much else. While the two sides disagree on whether these initial talks will be 'direct,' as Mr. Trump said, or 'indirect' through intermediaries, as Iran said, it will not matter very much, given the importance of the two men. What will matter, as Mr. Araghchi said, is that the effort is 'as much an opportunity as it is a test' — a test of the willingness of both sides to negotiate seriously on restricting Iran's nuclear program, which Iran says is only for civilian purposes, in return for permanent sanctions relief. But even if war can be avoided, the space for talking is narrow, European officials and analysts say, because by the end of July the Europeans must signal whether they will reimpose the punishing United Nations sanctions against Iran, currently suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal, but which expire on Oct. 18. If that happens, Iran says it will pull out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty altogether. And that might cause Israel, with American help, to engage in an extensive military campaign to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Both Israel and the United States have vowed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The Europeans want to decide before Russia, increasingly an ally of Iran, takes over the presidency of the Security Council for the month of October. 'I am very worried,' said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and director of the foreign policy program of the Brookings Institution. 'This tactic of negotiation under threat being used by the Trump administration is not a substitute for a serious policy on Iran.' Already, the United States has moved more long-range stealthy B-2 bombers into range and dispatched a second aircraft carrier, the Carl Vinson, into the region, while initiating a major bombing campaign against the Houthis, Iran's allies, which is seen as a message from Washington. Iran is eager to avoid a further set of multilateral sanctions, on top of the ones that Washington imposed after Mr. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. But the Europeans have said they will reimpose sanctions absent a new nuclear deal. That has prompted Iran to vow that it would then abandon the nonproliferation treaty, which has a 90-day timeline, which might even then allow for some last-minute diplomacy. Even if Iran agreed to keep international nuclear inspectors in the country, the International Atomic Energy Agency, in charge of implementation of the treaty, has made it clear that Iran's previous refusals to be open with its inspectors mean that the world is already blinded to a significant degree about Iran's nuclear program. And an unregulated Iranian nuclear program — with the strong potential for a breakout to produce even a primitive nuclear weapon — may prompt Israel and the United States to attack Iran. The West and Israel are concerned that Tehran has been secretly planning a faster, cruder approach to building a weapon; it already has enough near weapons-grade uranium to build at least six bombs, according to I.A.E.A. data. 'It's hard to imagine that Israel would be happy with a nuclear program as advanced as Iran's without U.N. supervision,' said Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. A bombing campaign would most likely prompt serious Iranian counterattacks on American and Israeli targets and Gulf infrastructure, like Saudi oil facilities, which no Arab nation in the region wants to see. It could also prompt Iran to weaponize its nuclear program and build a bomb. Whether the Europeans will be willing or legally able to postpone the deadline for imposing more sanctions is unclear, analysts say. But there would have to be enormous progress toward a new deal to even consider the option. Given mutual mistrust — after all, Mr. Trump already pulled out of one nuclear deal — a new accord would have to 'perpetually restrain Iran's nuclear advancement in return for perpetual economic guarantees,' ones that Ayatollah Khamenei, 'who is deeply anti-American,' believes will be guaranteed, said Ms. Vakil, the Mideast specialist at Chatham House. Iran is also likely to want strong security guarantees for the future of the regime. Mr. Netanyahu said on Monday in the Oval Office that he sought a deal 'the way it was done in Libya,' referring to 2003, when Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, then the leader, agreed to eliminate all of his country's weapons of mass destruction, including a nuclear-weapons program. If Mr. Trump 'seeks to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program Libya-style, in addition to closing down Iran's missile program and Tehran's relations with its regional partners, then diplomacy will most likely be dead on arrival,' argued Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Quincy Institute. But if Mr. Trump's strategy 'is centered on achieving a verification-based deal that prevents an Iranian bomb — his only red line — then there is reason to be optimistic about upcoming talks,' he continued. Mr. Vaez believes the Iranians are skeptical about getting a deal with Mr. Trump. 'I see signs that they are preparing for war,' he said, including efforts to increase social cohesion, vowing not to enforce a strict law on the hijab, releasing some political prisoners and warning about protests. After Israel's efforts to destroy Iran's proxies and allies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Israel air attacks on Iran's missile defenses, Iran is perceived as militarily vulnerable. But Mr. Vaez warns of overconfidence. 'No doubt the Iranians are weakened, but they are not weak, and they are not desperate,' he said. 'Iran does not want to validate pressure as a tool for concessions, which is a slippery slope,' he said. 'For Khamenei, the one thing more dangerous than suffering from U.S. sanctions is surrendering to them.'
