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Yahoo
24-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Alpha From Ashes: ‘Big Loser' Comstock Resources (CRK) is Flashing a Statistically Significant Reversal Signal
You've all heard the aphorism of buy low and sell high. But have you ever noticed that hardly anyone provides a tangible blueprint for how to actually find these hidden gems? We're going to change that right now. More News from Barchart NVDA Broken Wing Butterfly Trade Targets A Profit Zone Between 150 and 160 Tariff Deals Spark Unusual Options Trading in Carrier Global Corp Stock Low IV Alert: Stocks that Could be Ready to Pop Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! One of the many Barchart screeners that's particularly helpful for bargain-hunting speculators is the one-day percentage change decline list. As the name implies, it lists out the biggest losers on the day. Usually, people should avoid attempting to catch falling knives. When a publicly traded security loses a significant amount of value in a single session, there's almost always a reason for it — and not a good one. With that warning out of the way, I'm going to make an exception for Comstock Resources (CRK). An independent energy company, Comstock is engaged in the acquisition, development, production and exploration of oil and natural gas properties. Per its public profile, the enterprise's hydrocarbon reserve base is entirely concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico, Southeast Texas and East Texas/North Louisiana regions. Fundamentally, CRK stock would seem to be an intriguing idea, especially under the Trump administration. However, shareholders would have different thoughts for right now. On Wednesday, CRK slipped almost 4%. In the past five sessions, the security dropped more than 11%. To be sure, the year-to-date performance stands at nearly 13%, making it a very solid name relative to the benchmark S&P 500 index. So, what gives? It's difficult to say, although Barchart content partner Zacks reported a spike in implied volatility due to the purchase of a $3 put that expired last week on July 18. Other than that, the news cycle seems dry. Interestingly, though, the company is scheduled to release its earnings results after the closing bell on July 30. A better-than-expected print or guidance may help lift CRK stock from its funk — and its statistical framework is pointing to exactly that. Using Objective Truth to Decipher CRK Stock Scientists and theologians often spar on the existence of objective truth in the universe. It's a contentious topic, one that I'm obviously not going to explore here. However, I do find the concept of truth fascinating, in part because it's a rare — possibly near-extinct — commodity in the financial publication realm. It's here that many people may have a knee-jerk reaction. Hey, what a minute, CRK stock closed at $20.55 on the midweek session and is priced at 4.91-times trailing-12-month (TTM) sales…that's truth! No, I'm afraid those are facts. And what is typipcally considered 'analysis' in the financial realm comes down to heuristics formulated from those facts. Sorry for the red pill but once you see it, you can't unsee it. Think about all the times we've heard experts talk about a stock being offered at a 'good price' or a company stumbling on 'bad earnings.' But what do those labels even mean? There's no objective mechanism to determine that since scalar metrics like share price or earnings are unbounded and therefore undefinable. The only objective truth? At the end of the day, the market is either a net buyer or net seller. Consider what has been happening in the trailing two months. CRK stock has printed (including the current week) four up weeks and six down weeks, with an overall negative trajectory across the 10-week period. This sequence can be abbreviated as 4-6-D. It may seem ridiculous to compress the magnitude dynamism of CRK stock into a simple binary code. But consider what's happening here. In the past 10 weeks, the market has been a net buyer four times and a net seller six times. This is a falsifiable sequence. When we stack this pattern against others across rolling 10-week intervals (going back to January 2019), we get the following demand profile for CRK stock: L10 Category Sample Size Up Probability Baseline Probability Median Return if Up 2-8-D 8 75.00% 50.58% 4.09% 3-7-D 28 46.43% 50.58% 3.24% 3-7-U 5 40.00% 50.58% 4.28% 4-6-D 46 69.57% 50.58% 4.62% 4-6-U 16 62.50% 50.58% 3.68% 5-5-D 51 50.98% 50.58% 7.23% 5-5-U 45 48.89% 50.58% 7.17% 5-5-F 1 100.00% 50.58% 0.62% 6-4-D 13 61.54% 50.58% 8.57% 6-4-U 71 39.44% 50.58% 3.92% 7-3-U 33 33.33% 50.58% 9.09% 8-2-U 1 0.00% 50.58% N/A Interestingly, the 4-6-D sequence has flashed 46 times. In 69.57% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 4.62%. Should the bulls maintain control for a second week, the median forecasted performance is an additional 3.63%. That may mean that CRK stock is on course to hit around $22.28. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in CRK will rise on any given week is only 50.44%. This is essentially our null hypothesis, our expected performance assuming no mispricing. The beauty of the 4-6-D signal is that the odds now dramatically favor the bulls. A Rationally Aggressive Trade Based on the market intelligence above, the 21/22 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15 is awfully intriguing. This transaction involves buying the $21 call and simultaneously selling the $22 call, for a net debit paid of $50. Should CRK stock rise through the short strike price ($22) at expiration, the maximum reward is also $50, a 100% payout. With earnings coming up next week, though, super-aggressive speculators may consider ramping up the short strike price to $23. In that case, the 21/23 bull spread would offer the highest payout at almost 167%. Some might wonder at this point about the reliability of the 4-6-D sequence. Running a one-tailed binominal test reveals a p-value of 0.0067, translating to a 99.33% confidence level that the signal is 'intentional' rather than random. Scientifically, this metric meets the threshold of statistical significance. This doesn't guarantee a successful outcome, to be clear. However, it lets you know that there's something about this sequence that extends well beyond white noise — and that's how we can extract alpha from heavily cheapened stocks. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Gear Up for the 127 Yard Sale: 690 Miles of Bargains and Adventure, August 7–10, 2025
Rust-Oleum Returns as Presenting Sponsor of The World's Longest Yard Sale CHATTANOOGA, Tenn., July 09, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The 127 Yard Sale, known far and wide as The World's Longest Yard Sale, is back for its 39th year, running August 7–10, 2025. The four-day event stretches 690 miles from Addison, Michigan to Gadsden, Alabama, drawing hundreds of thousands of bargain hunters, collectors, and road trip enthusiasts. With over 10,000 vendors and 38 Major Vendor Stops along the route, the 127 Yard Sale is a bucket-list experience for anyone who loves the thrill of the hunt. "Hundreds of thousands of people attend each year, but what keeps them coming back isn't just the bargains — it's the adventure and community," says Josh Randall, Director of Media Relations. Rust-Oleum: The Official Spray Paint of Summer This year's Presenting Sponsor, Rust-Oleum, invites shoppers to #SprayNewLife into their 127 Yard Sale discoveries. Whether it's a rusty lawn chair, a faded frame, or a funky lamp with potential, Rust-Oleum products are perfect for those who want to transform rather than toss. With endless creativity, bold colors, and lasting durability, Rust-Oleum makes it easy to transform your finds into something fresh and uniquely yours. Rust-Oleum has also created a free DIY Guide filled with creative ideas and project inspiration. Available now at Live at Van Wert Fairgrounds Catch Rust-Oleum in action at the Van Wert Fairgrounds in Van Wert, OH, (lot 73) August 7–9! Stop by for live DIY demos, expert tips, and inspiration from influencers and in-house pros. Learn how to flip and upcycle your 127 Yard Sale finds without breaking the bank. Plus, enjoy giveaways and a chance to win Official Spray Paint of Summer prize packs. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned DIYer, you'll leave ready to #SprayNewLife into your treasures. Vintage Vibes & Limited-Edition Merch In celebration of nearly four decades of bargain-hunting adventure, the 127 Yard Sale is introducing an all-new vintage-themed t-shirt, available online and — for the first time ever — at select Major Vendor Stops along the route. Inspired by retro road trip graphics from the 1980s, this limited-edition design is a nostalgic nod to the event's early days. Fans can snag t-shirts, tanks, and more at: Siggy Parker's General Store – Addison, Michigan (the northernmost point of the route) Vinterest Southside – Chattanooga, Tennessee (one of the sale's busiest vendor hubs) Shop online anytime at More Than a Yard Sale — It's an Experience With support from sponsors like Flea Market Decor and the State of Tennessee ( the 127 Yard Sale continues to grow in scale, charm, and national attention. Whether you're road-tripping for a day or mapping out all 690 miles, the event offers a one-of-a-kind mix of small-town charm, adventure, and incredible finds. Plan Your Trip To view maps, featured stops, find lodging, and more, visit Be sure to follow @127yardsale on social media for countdowns, route highlights, and real-time updates. About the 127 Yard Sale The 127 Yard Sale began in 1987 to encourage travelers to explore the scenic backroads of the U.S. Highway 127 corridor. Today, it's The World's Longest Yard Sale — a four-day, six-state, 690-mile celebration of small towns, the joy of the hunt, and meeting new friends along the way. View source version on Contacts Contact Information: Name of Press Contact: Josh Randall (Director of Media Relations)Email: Social media: @127YardSalePress Kit:
The Guardian
21-06-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
‘Not an attractive place to shop': how Poundland lost its appeal to shoppers
'It's not actually that cheap any more. It's kind of lost its appeal because everything is not a pound.' Samantha, a shopper outside Poundland's Luton retail park outlet who is heading off to B&M to find some better deals, sums up the feelings of many of her fellow bargain hunters and a central problem facing the new owner of the budget retailer. Gordon Brothers, which snapped up Poundland for a pound earlier this month – appears to have got a cheaper deal than is now available on many of the shelves at the chain, where there is a dizzying array of prices – from £14 jackets to £3 boxes of lightbulbs and £1.50 lipgloss. The group, which dived to a pre-tax loss of more than £51m last year despite sales at its outlets in the UK, Republic of Ireland and Isle of Man rising slightly to £1.82bn, according to accounts filed at Companies House, is aiming to close up to 150 of its 800 UK stores and asking landlords to cut rents on many more as it battles for survival. On a busy lunchtime in Luton, shoppers are queueing up for Poundland's largely self-service tills but many are convinced they can find better bargains elsewhere. This area highlights how the competition is breathing down Poundland's neck. The retail park store is just a couple of doors down from B&M, a major competitor, while its nearby outlet in the centre of Luton is squeezed between one of the UK's few remaining Wilkos and The Works – both cut-price rivals. Floretta Pope, 68, who is passing by with her daughter Tia, 32, says she no longer shops very frequently in Poundland. 'Everything in there is not a pound and, even if it is, it can be smaller than normal. It is not really an attractive place to shop.' 'I always find it a bit hectic in Poundland,' adds Katie Duffy, 26. 'I don't tend to go in. B&M has more choice.' Bargain chains are having a particularly tough time due to rising competition from supermarkets, including Tesco, Aldi and Lidl. The expansion of groups such as Savers, The Range, B&M, The Works and Home Bargains as well as online rivals such as Temu and Shein mean the budget market is now very crowded even since the demise of major player Wilko in 2023, which was left with only a few stores after The Range snapped up the brand. There has already been some consolidation. Poundland's rival Poundstretcher was bought last year by Majestic Wine's owner, Fortress, in its latest rescue deal, while another rival, Poundworld, closed its 350 stores in 2018 and Poundland bought its rival 99p Stores in 2015. Despite that, Poundland has been losing ground. Industry research group GlobalData estimates that its market share has fallen 2.3 percentage points (ppts) between 2019 and 2024 while Home Bargains, B&M and The Range's shares increased by 7.2ppts, 6.2ppts and 1.3ppts respectively. It is a dramatic turnaround in the past decade when Poundland grew rapidly amid demand for cheap stores. It rode a wave on which the UK's pound shop estate doubled between 2010 and 2016, according to the retail analyst Local Data Company now known as Green Street. The number continued to climb between 2015 and 2024 when more than 480 were added. Growth has now stalled according to Green Street and 21 shops in the pound-store category have closed this year. Poundland's parent group, Pepco, said it put the group up for sale after the government's increase in national insurance and business rates in April, which it said would 'add further pressure to Poundland's cost base'. But it also admitted it had made mistakes, including putting its Pepco clothing ranges into stores – which had not gone down well with UK shoppers. The budget retailers are under particular pressure from a raft of increases in basic business costs – such as wages, energy and property tax – as their slim profit margins give them little room to absorb additional costs. Meanwhile, the low-wage shoppers that make up the core of their fanbase now have little spare cash for non-essentials and those with more to spare can get what they need with their supermarket shop, where they are increasingly locked in by loyalty-card-linked discounts. The general slowdown in visits to physical stores on high streets and shopping malls has also hit bargain chains whose rock-bottom prices are designed to tempt passersby into impulse purchases. One former Poundland director, said the brand had 'lost its way' by becoming 'far too complicated and confusing for customers' with such an array of different price points. He said its decision in 2019 to drop the focus on £1 items also meant business operations, including running stores and dealing with suppliers had become more costly and complex. Poundland itself said in January it wanted to increase the number of items on sale for a £1 or less from 1,500, less than a third of its core range of 5,000 items, to almost half – 2,400. However, a banner outside the Luton store still only boasted of having the lower number of products at or below the headline price point. Emily Scott, a retail analyst at GlobalData agrees: 'The introduction of multiple price points has confused customers, while still not enabling shoppers to trade up within its ranges as it lacks the additional choice of mid to premium products.' She adds: 'Poundland's weak variety of branded goods at low prices has meant it has struggled to keep pace, damaging its brand perception amongst brand- and budget-conscious shoppers.' Poundland said: 'Despite continuing to serve 20 million shoppers a year, we know we've not met customers' expectations in a number of areas over the last couple of years. 'We've heard them and we're looking forward to having the opportunity to put those missteps right as we put our recovery plan in place.' The former director believes Poundland could still have a place on high streets but might need to shift to something more akin to the US chain Five Below, which sells items for five dollars or less to give more flexibility as costs rise. But, he warns, 'they have to keep it simple'.
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oscar Health (OSCR) Rallies 16.51% Anew on New Medicare Proposal
We recently published a list of These 10 Stocks Boast Double-Digit Gains Amid Boring Market. Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE:OSCR) is one of the best-performing stocks on Thursday. Oscar Health extended its winning streak to a third consecutive day on Wednesday, jumping 16.51 percent to finish at $18.77 apiece as investors resorted to bargain-hunting following news that lawmakers are proposing a new measure that would allow individuals and employers to voluntarily enroll in a new version of Medicare. Under the bill, lawmakers are looking to establish a 'Part E,' a self-funded Medicare plan to be offered alongside private insurance across all states and federal marketplaces. While this would heighten competition with private insurers, such as Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE:OSCR), the voluntary enrollment could potentially delay or prevent Medicare's insolvency. A close up of a patient and a healthcare professional engaging in conversation, showing the company's commitment to patient care. Over the past few days, fears brewed over Medicare getting insolvent sooner than expected, with the cautious sentiment spilling over to stocks of Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE:OSCR) and its counterparts. While we acknowledge the potential of OSCR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Daily Mail
16-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Shoppers rush to AliExpress to shop home and garden must-haves with up to 70% OFF in the summer sale - including a £270 BBQ for just £85
Bargain-hunting shoppers on the lookout for affordable homeware deals are racing to AliExpress to shop the brand's unmissable summer sale, with savings of up to 70 per cent to take advantage of. From kitchen appliances and cleaning tools to beauty must-haves and clothing, you'll find it all and more on AliExpress – and all for record low prices. Whether you're hoping to upgrade your most used homeware tools or spruce up your garden in time for the summer months, there's plenty to help you kit out your home at AliExpress – and we've found some of the top deals to grab at unmissably low prices in the sale. Ready to shop? Explore our top homeware picks from the summer sale below.
