09-05-2025
Fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups featuring Jordan Beck, Cade Horton and more
Even though it's very early into the 2025 fantasy baseball season, many of you might be looking at a roster that only partially resembles the team you drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I'm running it back with your favorite speculator piece with my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week's waiver wire headliners … today.
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Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure player statistics regarding control, batted ball quality and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production, which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact frequency and quality, paired with advanced statistics to identify underlying hitting skills.
Hitters in this table have +80% contact, +42% hard-hit, a +.335 expected weighted on-base average and at least 35 plate appearances in the past 21 days.
After a couple of intense weeks in the waiver streets, things suddenly got pretty quiet without any major injuries or marquee call-ups. Well, I never stop churning the bottom of my roster, and anytime there's a possibility to hitch my wagon to Coors Field as the weather warms, I'm buying with both hands. After a multitude of injuries, plus poor performance in Colorado, the subsequent outfield carousel appears to have come to a stop. One player left standing who is worth your fantasy attention is 24-year-old sophomore Jordan Beck. A rough initial go at the majors in 2024 — 184 PA, .188 BA, .521 OPS, 32 wRC+ — spurred some negative narratives surrounding Beck, but I contend they were premature. Remember, MLB is hard, and lots of superstars started slow their first time around.
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Since his late-April promotion, Beck has been 5×5 viable in a full-time role — .310 BA, 13 R, 11 RBI, 5 HR, 1 SB — hitting primarily second in the Rockies' order. Sure, there have been strikeouts (32.2% K), but the chase rate isn't disastrous (34.4% O-Swing), so I'm willing to hang in there given the elite elevated pulled batted ball approach (19.5% Pulled FBLD). So, yes, the homers all came in a bunch, but more than half were on the road. And the underpinning power metrics, especially in his past 64 plate appearances, cannot be sold short — 51.3% Hard Hit, 25.6% Barrel, .607 xwOBAcon. Wow. Without real competition for plate appearances, and given his track record for five-category production, there's no reason for Beck to be rostered in so few leagues (only 23% on Yahoo).
Since I have the chance, there's another thing worth mentioning. One of fantasy managers' most common errors is complacency, usually on better teams. Many of us have been there — a roster's performing well, full of noteworthy names, but we might not notice someone in the active lineup losing playing time. Now, that doesn't mean it's necessarily time to cut these guys, but losing at-bats is never a good thing. It gave me the idea to start tracking notable names losing opportunities.
*** = Prioritize for speed
^^^ = Riser
Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn't be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there's an argument this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action.
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Pitchers in this table have a ≤3.50 skills independent ERA, ≤1.20 WHIP, +18.0% K-BB rate, with a minimum of 10 IP in the past 30 days.
Sometimes, the minor leagues are the perfectly placed open window, just as injuries slam a fantasy door. The Cubs look fantastic this season, continuing to succeed despite losing SP1 Justin Steele. Now it's co-ace Shota Imanaga (hamstring) on the IL15, and I'm no longer waiting to add rookie Cade Horton. Determined to capitalize on the great start, Cubs brass should have already been on the phone with Iowa for a one-way bus ticket. The former first-round pick has been excellent throughout Triple A this season — 29.0 IP, 1.24 ERA. 0.86 WHIP, 30.6% K, .128 BAA — posting at least five strikeouts in every game started. Horton's inducing whiffs (14.1% Swing Strike) while suppressing hard contact (.445 OPS, 27.9% Hard Hit, 4.9% Barrel). He has very little left to show in MiLB, especially with a big club in contention needing impactful innings pitched.
In desperate times like this, when most self-respecting waiver wires are devoid of any true pitching talent, it's OK to add a player on a good team now and ask questions later. Due to spotty command and home run issues in his MiLB track record, I've never really been the biggest Landon Knack guy. But we fantasy beggars can't be choosers. Knack will occupy a spot in the Dodgers' rotation at least until Clayton Kershaw returns, and even then, he could be part of a six-man staff. After getting obliterated by the Nationals on the road in early April, the 27-year-old righty settled in nicely against Miami (5 IP, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K), for whatever that's worth. His changeup is a legitimately devastating MLB offering (42.3% Whiff, .215 xSLG), and if he'd just start getting the curveball over for more strikes (50.0% Ball), Knack could level up to stick with a club that's going to provide plenty of wins.
^^^ = Riser
Players from previous articles who are no longer under 50% rostered (Yahoo) and should be rostered first
(Top photo of Cade Horton: Rick Scuteri / Imagn Images)
