Latest news with #bearish
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG): A Bear Case Theory
We came across a bearish thesis on TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) on Substack by Edwin Dorsey. In this article, we will summarize the bears' thesis on TPVG. TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)'s share was trading at $6.71 as of 23rd May 2025. TPVG's trailing and forward P/E were 7.22 and 5.61 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. A financial portfolio manager looking at data on a monitor while managing assets. TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (NYSE: TPVG) has shown a consistent decline in net asset value (NAV), raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model. Since Q4 2021, NAV has dropped from $14.01 to $8.61 by Q4 2024, reflecting a significant erosion in asset quality. This ongoing trend suggests structural issues within its lending practices, particularly its continued exposure to financially unstable, venture-stage companies. While the firm has attempted to rotate out of distressed loans, the newer additions to the portfolio appear to carry similar levels of risk, offering little improvement in overall credit quality. The company remains heavily reliant on startups that are either operationally challenged or lack the financial strength to meet their obligations, making recovery rates uncertain and potentially leading to further write-downs. Despite expectations of stabilization, there has been no meaningful progress in reversing the decline in NAV or improving portfolio health. Dividend sustainability is also in question, given the weakening income profile and increasing pressure on earnings. Without clear signs of a strategic shift or a credible path to portfolio improvement, TriplePoint's long-term outlook remains concerning. The persistent deterioration in NAV, limited visibility into credit recovery, and continued exposure to weak borrowers all suggest a structurally fragile business. As a result, the stock may continue to underperform, and the risk/reward profile has become increasingly unfavorable for long-term investors. For a deeper look into another stock in the Asset Management industry, be sure to check out our article on BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), wherein we summarized a bullish thesis by Kroker Equity Research on Substack. TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 7 hedge fund portfolios held TPVG at the end of the first quarter which was 9 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of TPVG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TPVG but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bond Traders See Treasuries Selloff Going Even Further
Traders rattled by the rout in long-dated Treasuries are turning more bearish as yields continue to oscillate around a key 5% psychological threshold. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. survey of traders released Wednesday spotlighted that investors expect the selloff to worsen, keeping yields elevated in the $29 trillion Treasury market. The survey's all-client category for outright short positions — which includes central banks, sovereign wealth funds, real money and speculative traders — has climbed to the most since around mid-February.
Yahoo
24-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Option traders moderately bearish in Advanced Micro Devices with shares down 1.59%
Option traders moderately bearish in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), with shares down $1.76 near $ volume roughly in line with average with 156k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.76, compared to a typical level near 0.59. Implied volatility (IV30) is higher by 0.9 points near 45.37,and below the 52wk median, suggesting an expected daily move of $3.11. Put-call skew steepened, indicating increased demand for downside protection. Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See today's best-performing stocks on TipRanks >> Read More on AMD: Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue AMD Will Be as 'Aggressive as Possible' to Challenge Nvidia Sanmina price target raised to $95 from $87 at BofA Intel Stock (NASDAQ:INTC) Slips as AMD Steps Up at Computex Wall Street Backs Dell's AI Strategy with Buy Ratings AMD's Growth Potential and Strategic Positioning Drive Buy Rating Amid AI Market Opportunities
Bloomberg
21-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hedge Fund EDL's 31% Gain Belies Painful Short Bets on US Stocks
Macro hedge fund veteran Edouard de Langlade, who is in the middle of the best trading period of his more-than two decade career, says bearish wagers on US stocks have been painful. He is shorting them anyway. His $1.6 billion EDL Global Opportunities strategy gained 7.3% amid volatility in global markets sparked by US President Donald Trump's tariff war last month, according to an investor document seen by Bloomberg News. That added to its best-ever monthly gain of more than 14% during the previous month, the document shows.
New York Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- New York Times
The ‘Sell America' Trade Makes a Comeback
Markets get bearish on the U.S. The 'sell America' trade is back in focus on Monday. Investors are bracing for a triple threat of an inflationary trade war, President Trump's tax cut plan swelling the federal deficit, and fallout from Moody's cutting America's triple-A credit rating. That adds pressure on the White House to make trade deals, and on House Speaker Mike Johnson to win over Republican fiscal hawks to make Trump's big campaign vow — permanent tax cuts — a reality. The latest: S&P 500 futures, oil, the dollar and Bitcoin are all down. More worryingly, investors are selling government bonds, with the yield on the 30-year Treasury climbing above 5 percent, surpassing the level it reached in April when Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs. The administration quickly paused the levies after turmoil in the bond market, with Trump acknowledging that investors 'were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.' Wall Street has been watching to see how bond vigilantes respond to Trump's domestic policy campaign, especially if it stokes inflation and adds to the deficit. The downgrade was hardly a surprise. Moody's put the U.S. on its watch list in November 2023, and the other major ratings agencies, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, made a similar move years ago. Still, the decision shifts investor attention to deficits and America's fiscal problems, especially as doubts grow that Trump's tariffs will be the revenue-generator he's long promised. Could the bond sell-off complicate the House's budget negotiations? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent minimized the Moody's downgrade on Sunday. But Representative Andy Harris, Republican of Maryland and a fiscal conservative, posted on X that it was 'a signal that we can wait no longer to address the debt crisis.' He later added: 'I'm still a HARD NO' on Trump's 'big, beautiful' spending bill. Republicans can afford to lose no more than three votes in either the House or the Senate. Larger cuts, including to popular measures like Medicaid and paring Inflation Reduction Act clean-energy tax credits, may win them over — but at what political cost? Johnson has said he wants the bill to head to the floor for a vote this week. Investors are also watching inflation. Walmart spooked some in the market when it said last week that tariffs would probably force it to raise prices as soon as this month. Trump angrily responded this weekend that Walmart should 'EAT THE TARIFFS,' presumably meaning not pass the added cost on to consumers. Bessent told CNN on Sunday that he had spoken with Doug McMillon, Walmart's C.E.O., acknowledging that some, but not all, price rises 'may get passed on to consumers.' He added that he expected inflation to stay stable, however. Consumers aren't so sure. Friday's University of Michigan survey showed that households see year-ahead inflation spiking. Trump's handling of the economy has already hurt his approval ratings. A potential credit crisis won't help. We'd like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please let us know what you're doing. Joe Biden is diagnosed with prostate cancer. The former president's office said doctors had found an aggressive form of the cancer and that his family was discussing treatment options with them. President Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris were among those that issued supportive statements; the news comes as Democrats are reckoning with their initially staunch support of Biden's re-election campaign. New Jersey's statewide transit strike is over. NJ Transit and the union that represents the state's passenger-train drivers called off the work stoppage on Sunday after reaching a compromise on pay and work rules. The strike was set to cost NJ Transit an estimated $40 million a day — but the trains aren't running just yet: Safety checks will be conducted on Monday, and full service won't resume until tomorrow. Capital One closes its takeover of Discover Financial. The formal conclusion of the $35 billion deal creates a new credit card giant, coming after the companies persuaded federal authorities that the transaction would strengthen a rival to Visa and Mastercard. But Capital One suffered a blow a few days ago, agreeing to pay $425 million to settle litigation accusing it of cheating savings customers out of higher interest rates. Exclusive: A $6 billion bet to get hospitals paid using A.I. Hospitals and doctors are at war with health insurance firms for every last dollar. With the explosion of electronic medical records — and hundreds or thousands of reimbursement codes — it's almost impossible for hospital systems and their staff to keep up with the paperwork needed to get paid. Health insurers deny almost one out of every five claims. Now a new venture aims to fix that. New Mountain Capital plans to announce a $6 billion deal to establish a company that will use artificial intelligence to help hospitals and other health care providers get paid more quickly, Maureen Farrell is first to report for DealBook. The new business, Smarter Technologies, was created through an acquisition and merger of three separate businesses. One of them, Access Healthcare, already manages billing for hundreds of hospitals. Smarter Technologies will combine Access Healthcare's system with two artificial intelligence start-ups: SmarterDx and Jeremy Delinsky, formerly with the health care software company Athenahealth, will be C.E.O. What's the model? Smarter Technologies takes a percentage of the revenue they collect. By applying its A.I. to existing revenue collection systems, New Mountain Capital is betting its technology can find the proper codes demanded by insurance providers. These codes are notoriously difficult to decipher and navigate. The A.I. systems can speed up processing so the staff can get bills paid the first time around, or more quickly challenge denied claims. Dr. Samara Llewellyn leads the clinical documentation practice at Novant Health, which operates more than 700 clinics and urgent care centers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Her teams struggle to find the right codes used for billing, she said, which makes it easy for insurance companies to deny claims. 'There are 150,000 codes out there. And it's basically impossible for providers to know all of that.' Kathrynne Johns, the C.F.O. of Allegiance Mobile Health, the largest private provider of ambulances in Texas, has been using system since last year. In the first month of use, Johns said, the number of claims paid within 30 days rose to 27 percent from roughly 10 percent to 15 percent. Healthcare is an M.&A. hot spot. Deal making has mostly stalled under President Trump, as his tariff gambit continues to stoke economic uncertainty, but health care mergers and acquisitions have stayed active. So far this year, deals for health care firms accounted for roughly 12 percent of all buyouts, according to Dealogic, the largest share in more than a decade. New Mountain Capital, which manages about $55 billion in investor money, has targeted this sector. Matt Holt, managing director and president of New Mountain, said if Smarter Technologies could speed up payment timing, it could generate cost savings for hospitals and significant revenue for the company. Caveat: Bob Kocher, a partner at the V.C. firm Venrock Capital and a former senior health care adviser to President Barack Obama, warned that A.I. automation is unlikely to reduce health care costs overall. 'No hospital will buy an A.I. widget that means their revenue goes down,' he said. 'There's no market for that.' Buffett steps back from Berkshire's annual meeting When Warren Buffett announced that he planned to step down as C.E.O. of Berkshire Hathaway, he said that his successor, Gregory Abel, was ready to handle the job. A small but prominent test of that will come next year, when Buffett sits out the signature Q&A session at Berkshire's annual meeting in Omaha. The change could give a sense of whether the company, which Buffett built into a trillion-dollar conglomerate, will lose its luster as its longtime leader steps back. 'I'm going to leave it to Greg,' Buffett said of the decision, his daughter, Susie, told the Omaha World-Herald. The billionaire will attend the meeting, set for May 2, 2026 — but will sit with other directors on the floor of the CHI Health Arena. Susie Buffett said that when it comes to questions about Berkshire and its operations, Abel, who already handles much of the day-to-day matters, is at least as capable of answering as her father was. But the investors meeting has usually been about more than that. Shareholders have flocked to Omaha every year to ask Buffett about nearly anything, one of the many things that set Berkshire apart from other companies. Susie Buffett acknowledged that may no longer happen, though she expects a packed arena next year. A drop-off in attendance could have a major economic effect. Berkshire shareholders give the Omaha economy a big boost: The city sold out 92 percent of its hotel rooms last year during the event, which generated more than $21 million in tourism revenue, according to Deborah Ward, the head of Visit Omaha. And many Berkshire-owned companies set up shop at the annual meeting, selling Dairy Queen Dilly bars, Brooks running shoes and more to attendees. Berkshire is hoping that will continue. Abel told the World-Herald that the company announced the change now 'so people come with the right expectation,' but added that all the usual events that accompany the annual meeting — the shareholder-only shopping event, the Brooks 5K race the day after — will go on as usual. 'Tariffs are Boeing's problem, not ours.' — Michael O'Leary, the C.E.O. of the airline Ryanair and a major customer of the plane maker, on who's really getting hit by President Trump's trade fight. The market lessons of papal betting Throngs of worshipers and world leaders descended on Rome on Sunday for Pope Leo XIV's inaugural Mass. At one point, the first American pontiff reflected on his unlikely election, an outcome that stunned the faithful and Vatican experts. It has also led to questions about the wisdom of prediction markets, as bettors took to Polymarket and Kalshi to wager on the Vatican's ancient selection process. Some market watchers gleaned lessons from how those gamblers got it wrong, and what it says about wider market trends like meme stocks. A recap: White smoke billowed from a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel around 6 p.m. Rome time on May 8, signaling that cardinal electors had chosen a new pope. Bettors piled into prediction markets, wagering that the longtime front-runner, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, had won. Here's how Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College, described what happened next: Bettors could see the Parolin rally happening in real time, but didn't know why. Without inside information, bettors probably suspected that others must know something about the next pope's identity, setting off a stampede, Sethi concluded. This kind of feedback loop is a common — and sometimes destabilizing — feature of markets, said Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, a physicist who co-founded the French hedge fund Capital Fund Management. 'When a price moves, it affects what people think,' Bouchaud, who has studied how bubbles and manias form, told DealBook. In extreme cases, he added, 'this induces bubbles and crashes and trends.' He saw a similar phenomenon in January 2021, when retail investors, armed with little news, sent the shares in the loss-making retailer GameStop to extraordinary heights. The takeaway: The conclave may have revealed prediction markets' limits, but Sethi and Bouchaud said the result offers a timely lesson in how volatility can swing markets absent clear information. Deals Politics, policy and regulation Best of the rest
