Latest news with #bondMarket
Wall Street Journal
2 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon Predicts ‘Crack in the Bond Market,' Citing U.S. Fiscal Mess
JPMorgan JPM -0.14%decrease; red down pointing triangle Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon delivered a dire warning for the markets, predicting a crisis unless the U.S. takes steps to address its spiraling national debt. 'You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?' Dimon said during an interview at the Reagan National Economic Forum in California. 'It is going to happen.'
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Global equity funds see second weekly outflow on tariff concerns
May 30 (Reuters) - Global equity funds posted outflows for a second straight week through May 28, as risk aversion rose following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats on EU imports and overseas-made iPhones, alongside a spike in long-tenor bond yields. Investors pulled out a net $7.52 billion from global equity funds during the week following a net $9.48 billion worth of sales in the previous week, data from LSEG Lipper showed. In a surprise move last Friday, President Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports starting June 1, but later postponed the measure until July 9 after a weekend call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. In particular, Asian equity funds witnessed a significant selling pressure during the week as they lost about $6 billion in outflows, the biggest amount for a week since August 2018. Investors sold U.S. equity funds of $5.46 billion but purchased $3.64 billion worth of European equity funds, marking their seventh weekly net purchase in a row. Global bond funds attracted $15.27 billion in net inflows during the week, marking a sixth straight week of gains. U.S. bond funds drew $6.98 billion, while European and Asian bond funds added $6.23 billion and $1.27 billion, respectively. Government and high-yield bond funds also recorded inflows of $1.9 billion and $1.51 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, investors pulled $36.52 billion from money market funds, reversing the previous week's $18.71 billion in inflows. Gold and precious metals commodity funds saw $1.3 billion in inflows, snapping a five-week streak of outflows. Among 29,627 tracked emerging market funds, equity outflows slowed to $183 million from $1.4 billion the previous week, while bond funds drew $885 million, notching a fifth consecutive weekly inflow.
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
If Anything, Bond Markets Are Returning to Normal
A lot of people are worried about the level of US interest rates. 'I think we should be afraid of the bond market,' billionaire investor Ray Dalio said last week. To other observers, the bond market is ' barfing,' ' signaling a dire scenario for the economy,' ' shaking Wall Street,' ' sending a warning to Congress,' ' giving stock-market investors the yips,' ' worrying that something may be breaking beneath the surface ' or just plain ' breaking.' I don't see what all the fuss is about. There is nothing unusual about the current level of interest rates or their recent movement. If anything, this is a yawningly normal interest rate environment.
Finextra
5 days ago
- Business
- Finextra
but rising yields could rain on the parade: By Prakash Bhudia
Bitcoin just smashed through another all-time high, crossing $109,800 and lighting up the crypto crowd like it's 2021 all over again. The bulls are back, the memes are flying, and institutional money is pouring in. But just as things were starting to feel a little too euphoric, something old-school snapped everyone back to reality: the bond market. Because while Bitcoin's been partying, yields have been rising - and fast. And if there's one thing that can spook speculative assets, it's the sudden reminder that traditional finance still writes the rules on risk. Bitcoin's big moment - Fueled by ETFs and Institutional FOMO Let's start with the good stuff. Bitcoin didn't just edge past its previous high - it blew through it. Up 47% since April's dip to $75K, BTC's rally has been supercharged by inflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which racked up $7.4 billion in net inflows over just five weeks. That's not retail punting for fun - that's serious capital making a bet. Source: Coinglass It's not just ETFs, either. Futures open interest hit a record $75.14 billion, showing that traders are all-in on this trend. Add in corporate moves like Indonesia's DigiAsia Corp planning a $100 million Bitcoin treasury reserve, and it's clear: institutions aren't sitting this one out. The setup looked nearly perfect. Until it wasn't. Then the bond auction happened On 21 May, the U.S. Treasury held a routine 20-year bond auction. It should've been a non-event. Instead, it sent shockwaves through global markets. Investor demand was weak. The auction was priced at a 5.047% yield, slightly above the expected 5.035%. That tiny gap? It's called a 'tail' - and this one, at 1.2 basis points, was the largest since December. In bond-speak, that's code for investors who are worried. Source: Kobeissi Letter, X The fallout was fast: The S&P 500 fell nearly 80 points in half an hour The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.586% The 30-year yield hit 5.067% Source: Kobeissi Letter That's not just noise. That's the market pricing in bigger risks: rising deficits, sticky inflation, and the possibility that the Fed won't be cutting rates anytime soon. Why bond yields matter for Bitcoin Crypto isn't in its own little universe anymore. Like it or not, Bitcoin now dances to the macro beat - and right now, the rhythm is changing. Here's how soaring yields ripple through crypto: Higher yields strengthen the U.S. dollar → Bitcoin tends to move inversely to the dollar Tighter financial conditions → Less liquidity and less appetite for high-risk trades Risk-off sentiment → Capital flows back into traditional safe havens like bonds, not Bitcoin So even if the fundamentals look great - ETF inflows, corporate adoption, bullish momentum - the mood can turn quickly when macro headwinds start picking up. And that's what we saw this week. The bigger picture: Trouble brewing in the background The weak auction wasn't a fluke - it's a symptom. The U.S. is running a 7% budget deficit, inflation is still lurking, and trade tensions are re-emerging as Trump ramps up his campaign trail. Investors are starting to say, 'If you want us to lend you money, you're going to have to pay more.' That adds pressure not just on the Treasury, but on every asset priced off yields - including crypto. Analysts at K33 Research warned that macro risks could inject fresh volatility into Bitcoin's uptrend, especially if upcoming headline events disappoint. Case in point: Trump's $TRUMP Gala and VP JD Vance's appearance at Bitcoin 2025 might move sentiment - but they're no match for Treasury market shocks. What traders should keep an eye on This doesn't mean the Bitcoin bull run is over - but the game just got more complicated. If you're in the market, here's what to watch: U.S. Treasury yields – particularly the 10- and 20-year Inflation prints and Fed commentary – to gauge rate expectations ETF inflows – a slowdown here would be a red flag Futures open interest – high levels mean potential for sharp reversals Right now, Bitcoin's still flying high - but the air is getting thinner. The next leg up (or down) could depend less on crypto news, and more on how the macro winds blow. Bitcoin technical outlook: Further rally or reversal? Bitcoin is still very much in a bullish trend. Institutions are coming in, ETFs are delivering inflows, and price action remains technically strong. But this week's bond market shock is a reminder that macro still matters. If yields continue rising and financial conditions tighten further, Bitcoin could lose altitude fast. For now, traders remain optimistic - but the rally is skating on thinner ice than it appears. So the big question remains: is this just a wobble, or the start of something bigger? The next bond auction might tell us more. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's upside momentum is meeting some resistance, with a wick forming at the top of the up move. However, the volume tells a story of sellers not moving in with enough conviction which could lead to more upside. If sellers fail to force a reversal, buyers could struggle at the $112,000 price level that's currently holding prices. If we see a slump, on the other hand, prices could find support floors at the $102,990 and $93,000 price levels. Source: Deriv MT5 Disclaimer The information contained within this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice. We recommend you do your own research before making any trading decisions. This information is considered accurate and correct at the date of publication. Changes in circumstances after the time of publication may impact the accuracy of the information. The performance figures quoted are not a guarantee of future performance.
Wall Street Journal
7 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
How Your Town Can Feel the Weight of the National Debt
City and state borrowing costs edged up this past week when House lawmakers advanced a bill that would increase deficits. With concerns about federal spending pressuring the bond market, here is what to know about how U.S. borrowing may affect your state or local government. Yields crept upward on some long-dated municipal bonds after expectations of increased federal borrowing unsettled the debt market. Some Chicago airport bonds maturing in 2053 traded at 5.15% this week, the highest level since President Trump's tariff's broadside in early April. Yields also increased on bonds that raised money for Texas toll roads and student housing at the University of Tennessee.
