Latest news with #budgetsurplus
Telegraph
18-07-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Milei beat his detractors and it's delicious to watch
A budget surplus, inflation at a five-year low and an upgraded credit rating. These are economic conditions Britain could only dream of. But they are exactly what Argentina is now boasting under the sideburned, chainsaw-wielding libertarian president Javier Milei. When he was elected, Milei was widely dismissed as a dangerous eccentric who dubbed himself an 'anarcho-capitalist'and waved a chainsaw as a symbol of his mission to bring in savage spending cuts. When he swept to victory in 2023, Argentina was on the brink. Annual inflation had surged past 100 per cent, eventually peaking near 300 per cent. Every time Argentinians went shopping they found they had become noticeably poorer. But within months, Milei's shock therapy took effect. His prescription was brutal austerity: one in five government workers sacked, a public sector pay-freeze, the tax agency abolished, infrastructure spending slashed nearly 80 per cent and government subsidy removed leading to the cost of a trip on the Buenos Aires metro system jumping nearly five times overnight. It was difficult, but last year Argentina returned to a budget surplus for the first time in 14 years. The annual rate of inflation also dropped to below 40 per cent, with last month's monthly rate of price rises coming in under expectation at 1.6 per cent. He didn't stop with putting the brakes on price rises. Abolishing rent controls led to a near trebling in the number of apartments available on the market. Average rents have dropped 40 per cent even after adjusting for inflation – Zohran Mamdani, take note. Milei still has his critics. His style is shock and awe, his methods Trumpian. On Monday his vice-president, Victoria Villarruel, told him to 'grow up' after the president shared a post on X calling her 'stupid', and 'a traitor'. They've fallen out over a motion in the senate that would raise pensions faster than inflation. Unlike British politicians – too lily-livered to tackle the triple lock on pensions, a policy that might literally bankrupt us – Milei is against more money for retirees and has said he will veto the bill that increases pensions. He insults journalists (critics are labelled 'baboons') and ignores protesters but the economic indicators all seem to be pointing in the right direction. Milei has pulled his country back from the brink and seven in 10 Argentinians now support his agenda. Should we in Britain, then, consider a Mileian approach to our economic crisis? The inflation we've experienced over the past few years – ticking back up to 3.6 per cent on Wednesday – is by no means Argentinian but our spending is set to pass half of GDP. Bond markets baulk at forecasts which show welfare costs climbing to £375 billion. The result: it is near impossible for the Government – or any government – to think remotely long term, instead having to survive day to day among constant speculation about the Chancellor's headroom. Naysayers would argue Milei's approach wouldn't work here. Thatcher already carried out much of the financial deregulation here that's helped Milei bring in nearly 8 per cent growth over there and that it's easier to climb up the economic ladder from the starting point of an emerging market or developing country. But that might be precisely the point. If Britain started to think more like a crisis economy – accepting that we're already in financial disaster – rather than warning that a crunch point is yet to come, might we be prepared to accept the kind of shock therapy Milei dished out to such success. Long ago we should have called time on sluggish growth, the return of red tape and worsening productivity. We've avoided hyperinflation but we add billion upon billion to state spending with no improvement to our living standards in return. Perhaps we don't need someone as theatrical as Milei, and perhaps his model wouldn't fit Britain neatly. But his shock-therapy mindset – if not his chainsaw – might be exactly the prescription we've been too afraid to try.
Irish Times
17-07-2025
- Health
- Irish Times
Better-off children ‘sailing away from the have-nots', warns Ombudsman
Children from Ireland's financially better-off families are 'sailing away from the have-nots', the State's Children's Ombudsman has warned. The number of children living in poverty has doubled in the last year, Dr Niall Muldoon told the Patrick MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Co Donegal. 'They're sailing away from us. The haves are sailing away from the have-nots. And children are the ones who suffer there all the time,' he said. Nearly 5,000 children are currently homeless, even though the State has been running unprecedented budget surpluses in recent years, Dr Muldoon noted. READ MORE 'That's 2,200 families that need to be found a home. That priority has never been given to children, or families.' [ Child homelessness a 'national shame', TDs and Senators told Opens in new window ] Family homelessness was 'not even an issue' until 2012, when post-crash austerity 'kicked in properly' as the State moved away from providing public housing to depending on the private sector, he said. Currently, it costs the State €350 million a year just to house homeless families in Dublin, but the problem can be tackled, he told the summer school. 'It's not intractable. It is something that can be done.' The Government is unable to tell the Office for the Ombudsman for Children how much it spends on children, Dr Muldoon said. 'They can tell me exactly what the State spends on every brick in the [National] Children's Hospital , but not what they spend on children.' Equally, it can explain that the State's mental health budget has grown by a fifth in the last five years to €1.3 billion, 'which is still about half of what most other countries do, but they can't tell me what they spend on children'. Three-quarters of all mental health issues begin in childhood, the summer school heard. 'You would think 75 per cent of the budget, or 50 per cent of the budget should be spent on that. It's not. The reason it isn't is because it allows the other part of the system to use it as a slush fund if necessary.' Chris Quinn, Northern Ireland Commissioner for Children and Young People, said the homelessness crisis is affecting even more children north of the Border, where 5,000 households are in temporary accommodation and 18,000 are registered as homeless. 'It baffles me as to why we have silence on this. In the South, there's a huge outcry about homelessness and the housing situation. In the North, it isn't, but those figures are mind-boggling. [ Children have 'borne the biggest brunt' of homelessness crisis Opens in new window ] 'Poverty's sitting at about 25 per cent. So, one in four children are living in poverty. One in four children are going to school hungry, whose mommy or daddy is choosing to heat the house, or put the dinner on the table for themselves and their children,' he said. One in 10 of 11- to 19-year-olds in a recent Northern Ireland survey declared that they would engage in self-harm, with one in eight young people having suicidal ideation: 'Our child adolescent mental health waiting lists are through the roof,' Mr Quinn went on. The consequences of poverty make people age faster, said Prof Rose Anne Kenny, the founding principal investigator of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) and the chair of Medical Gerontology at Trinity College Dublin . 'Children who experience circumstances actually have an accelerated ageing process,' she said. 'The children experiencing depression at home, alcohol, drugs, homelessness, uncertainty, et cetera – those children age faster.' The faster ageing can be tracked biologically: 'We're creating a society, or a section of society, which will not get a chance at any stage unless we get it right now,' Prof Kenny said. Looking at lessons that can be learned from the United States, Prof Kenny said it has been clearly shown that people who possess a Bachelor of Arts degree die later and are far less likely to die in middle age than people who are poorly educated. Urging parents to encourage children to read and to read to them, Patricia Forde, the State's Laureate na nÓg, warned that the number of children who read regularly, or at all, is falling dramatically – largely explained by the rise in social media use. 'My grand ambition is very simple. I would like every child in Ireland to be a reader. And when I say reader, I don't mean literate, and I don't mean reading as a hobby,' she told the summer school. 'I want children who are reading for pleasure and who form a habit of being readers so that they grow up with something that is beside them at all times that they can read. So, that would be my magic wand moment.'
Wall Street Journal
09-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
A Thriftier ‘Trump Account'
Regarding Kevin Clark's letter 'A Day Old and Deep in Debt' (July 9): Perhaps a single amendment could make President Trump's accounts a truly big, beautiful deal: Stipulate that funds can be deposited only when the government runs a budget surplus. David W. Kreutzer
Zawya
07-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Reforms and Oman Vision 2040 drive recovery, confidence
MUSCAT: Just a few years ago, Oman faced one of the most challenging periods in its fiscal history, grappling with plunging oil prices, mounting public debt and global disruptions that pushed the nation into a deep deficit. Today, however, Oman is on a different path — one defined by recovery, economic reforms and renewed confidence in its future. A June 2025 report by Bahrain-based regional asset manager and investment bank SICO BSC, titled 'Rise of Oman: An Example of Fiscal Prudence,' confirms that Oman ended 2024 with a budget surplus of approximately RO 1 billion. At the same time, the country succeeded in reducing its public debt to RO 15.3 billion, equivalent to just 36.5 per cent of GDP, down from a high of 64 per cent in 2020. The seeds of recovery were planted in 2015 when Oman faced a record budget deficit of RO 4.6 billion. In response, the government implemented aggressive cost-cutting measures. Fuel subsidies were reduced, saving RO 479 million, while electricity subsidies were trimmed by RO 386 million. Defence spending was slashed by RO 350 million and civil ministry budgets were tightly managed. After His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik assumed leadership in 2020, Oman accelerated its fiscal reforms. The government focused on diversifying its revenue sources and enforcing strict control over expenditures, even during the Covid-19 pandemic. A major milestone was the introduction of VAT in April 2021, which raised RO 301 million in its first year. Between 2020 and 2023, tax and fee revenues increased by approximately 70 per cent, helping reduce dependence on oil revenues. The government's restraint in public sector hiring and wages also played a role. Over the past decade, public sector salaries and benefits have remained largely flat, allowing the state to avoid long-term financial burdens and maintain greater fiscal flexibility. Oman also benefitted from rising oil prices after 2021. While other Gulf states cut production under OPEC+ agreements, Oman maintained strong export volumes, allowing it to capitalise on market conditions. By 2024, Oman had reduced its budget breakeven oil price to $55 per barrel, down from $100 in 2014. This fiscal strength was recognised internationally when Oman's credit rating was upgraded to investment grade (BBB-) in September 2024, a move that is expected to reduce borrowing costs and improve investor confidence. Looking ahead, the 2025 budget projects a modest deficit of RO 620 million, largely due to cautious oil price assumptions. However, analysts — including those at SICO — believe Oman could record another surplus if oil prices remain favourable. To fund priority projects, the government plans to raise RO 750 million through new bonds and sukuk this year. With its finances stabilised, Oman is preparing for a new phase of strategic development aligned with Oman Vision 2040. Key projects include Sultan Haitham City ($2.6 billion), HyDuqm Green Hydrogen Hub ($7.5 billion) and later phases of green hydrogen expansion ($27 billion). Other major initiatives include the Duqm Green Steel Plant, the now-operational Duqm Refinery and revitalisation of Al Khuwair Downtown. Real estate and tourism projects in Yiti, a new UAE–Oman rail network and renewable energy projects such as the Ibri III Solar Plant and five wind power plants are also in the pipeline. 'These projects are not just about infrastructure,' the SICO report notes. 'They're a catalyst for national growth and investor confidence'. Oman is also planning for the long term by broadening its tax base. A domestic minimum top-up tax will be introduced in 2025, followed by the rollout of personal income tax in 2028, representing a major policy shift in the Gulf. At the same time, Oman's capital markets are positioned for growth. Despite returning just 15 per cent over the past decade, the market achieved 10 per cent annualised returns in the past five years. With stocks trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5x, there is potential for market re-rating. The launch of the Tanmia Liquidity Fund in May 2024 is expected to further deepen investor participation. Oman's transformation from fiscal fragility to financial resilience did not happen by chance. It required tough decisions, steady leadership and a focus on long-term stability. As SICO concludes, 'The fiscal consolidation achieved over the past five years provides a strong foundation for Oman to accelerate its ambitious development agenda'. 2022 © All right reserved for Oman Establishment for Press, Publication and Advertising (OEPPA) Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
News.com.au
06-07-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Natural disasters threatening hopes of slim budget surplus: McBain
The unpredictability of natural disasters is threatening hopes of Labor delivering a third budget surplus, Anthony Albanese's disasters tsar says. Department of Finance figures released last week showed the Albanese government had shrunk the forecast underlying deficit for 2024-25 to $5.5bn as of May, down from $27.9bn. But with natural disasters happening more often and states needing greater federal support in their responses, factoring in the cost poses a serious challenge for Jim Chalmers as he vies to keep his budget streak. Emergency Management Minister Kristy McBain said on Sunday extreme weather events had already cost Commonwealth coffers some $2bn in the first six months of 2025. 'The first six months of the year we've seen a number of events in our communities,' she told Sky News, pointing to ex-tropical cyclone Alfred. Alfred caused havoc by pounding coastal communities in Queensland and New South Wales with violent waves and winds. It also affected when the Prime Minister called the election. 'We've had those southwest Queensland floods, flooding in North Queensland,' Ms McBain said. 'Just last month, we saw the mid-North Coast and Hunter floods and an event, obviously over the past week on the South Coast of NSW in particular, also at a time where we've got drought in Victoria and South Australia.' She said while the states and territories led the disaster responses, the federal government has 'provided over $770m in direct Commonwealth assistance to people in disaster hit areas'. Ms McBain said federal funds also went into economic recovery, such as supporting primary producers and small businesses. 'So for the first six months of this year, we're close to $2bn that we've spent, and we'll continue to work with the states and territories … to make sure that we are dealing with some of those infrastructure impacts,' she said. Asked directly if the costs would ultimately dash the Treasurer's chances of landing another budget surplus, Ms McBain said natural disasters were hard to factor in to planning. 'In a budget, you are looking at a range of things that you can measure and predict,' she said. 'And I think what we have come to see is that natural disasters sometimes are unpredictable, and the impact they have on communities can be long and wide ranging. 'And what we've said from day one since the Albanese government was elected, is that we will walk with communities through the long tail of recovery, because recovery isn't … a few days while cameras and lights are in the area. 'It's … the weeks, the months and potentially years afterwards.'
