02-06-2025
Fed's Goolsbee: Rates Can Fall If Trade Policy Resolved
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Thing to know about official data is it comes out with a month or a quarter lag. So another major component of data sources that I monitor and that we monitor and Chicago Fed are coming out to talk to people. We had 36 or 38 business roundtables around the district and we go out to try to get information in real time, especially at moments of transition. So then pivot to tariff policy, other fiscal policies. Here it just emphasizes how by if you only looked at the official data, you you'd be behind the curve. So far we've had the last two months excellent inflation reports. But when we're out talking to people, they're like, Oh, just wait, just wait. You know, the tear. We haven't seen it yet, but the tariffs are coming, so. So we got to have a little bit of anticipation. I would say surprisingly little direct impact so far in the data that's coming out. But with the question mark, we don't know what will if that will remain true for in the next month or two. We had our our big Fed listeners event in Chicago. People came in from around the district. They expressed a lot of it was a construction firm in Iowa, actually, who said, hey, we're basically in a pencils down moment where we can't keep taking the test. We got to just wait first to find out some information. But there was optimism, too, that people thought on the back end of this thing, if we could open up some new markets, if it didn't turn into as big of a cost driver as the kind of the first first round announcements made it look, if we could find some deals, etc., by the time the harvest came in in the fall. In a way, it might be fine. So now I guess I still think I got to update the timing. So it used to be 12 to 18 months. Now it's what, nine and a half to 15 and a half months or something. I still think if we can get past this, this bumpy period that the dual mandate looks there, it still looks pretty good to me. And I and I think we can we could be on that path.
