Fed's Goolsbee: Rates Can Fall If Trade Policy Resolved
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Thing to know about official data is it comes out with a month or a quarter lag. So another major component of data sources that I monitor and that we monitor and Chicago Fed are coming out to talk to people. We had 36 or 38 business roundtables around the district and we go out to try to get information in real time, especially at moments of transition. So then pivot to tariff policy, other fiscal policies. Here it just emphasizes how by if you only looked at the official data, you you'd be behind the curve. So far we've had the last two months excellent inflation reports. But when we're out talking to people, they're like, Oh, just wait, just wait. You know, the tear. We haven't seen it yet, but the tariffs are coming, so. So we got to have a little bit of anticipation. I would say surprisingly little direct impact so far in the data that's coming out. But with the question mark, we don't know what will if that will remain true for in the next month or two. We had our our big Fed listeners event in Chicago. People came in from around the district. They expressed a lot of it was a construction firm in Iowa, actually, who said, hey, we're basically in a pencils down moment where we can't keep taking the test. We got to just wait first to find out some information. But there was optimism, too, that people thought on the back end of this thing, if we could open up some new markets, if it didn't turn into as big of a cost driver as the kind of the first first round announcements made it look, if we could find some deals, etc., by the time the harvest came in in the fall. In a way, it might be fine. So now I guess I still think I got to update the timing. So it used to be 12 to 18 months. Now it's what, nine and a half to 15 and a half months or something. I still think if we can get past this, this bumpy period that the dual mandate looks there, it still looks pretty good to me. And I and I think we can we could be on that path.
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And he punished the Vatican's Secretariat of State that had allowed the London deal to go through by stripping it of its ability to manage its own assets. But Francis left unfinished business and his overall record, at least according to some in the donor community, is less than positive. Critics cite Pell's frustrated reform efforts and the firing of the Holy See's first-ever auditor general, who says he was ousted because he had uncovered too much financial wrongdoing. Despite imposing years of belt-tightening and hiring freezes, Francis left the Vatican in somewhat dire financial straits: The main stopgap bucket of money that funds budgetary shortfalls, known as the Peter's Pence, is nearly exhausted, officials say. The 1 billion euro ($1.14 billion) pension fund shortfall that Pell warned about a decade ago remains unaddressed, though Francis had planned reforms. 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In 2023, when massive rains flooded the region, he personally brought food to the flood-struck zone. Within hours of his May 8 election, videos went viral on social media of Prevost, wearing rubber boots and standing in a flooded street, pitching a solidarity campaign, 'Peru Give a Hand,' to raise money for flood victims. The Rev. Jorge Millán, who lived with Prevost and eight other priests for nearly a decade in Chiclayo, said he had a 'mathematical' mentality and knew how to get the job done. Prevost would always be on the lookout for used cars to buy for use around the diocese, Millán said, noting that the bishop often had to drive long distances to reach all of his flock or get to Lima, the capital. Prevost liked to fix them up himself, and if he didn't know what to do, 'he'd look up solutions on YouTube and very often he'd find them,' Millán told The Associated Press. Before going to Peru, Prevost served two terms as prior general, or superior, of the global Augustinian order. While the order's local provinces are financially independent, Prevost was responsible for reviewing their balance sheets and oversaw the budgeting and investment strategy of the order's headquarters in Rome, said the Rev. Franz Klein, the order's Rome-based economist who worked with Prevost. The Augustinian campus sits on prime real estate just outside St. Peter's Square and supplements revenue by renting out its picturesque terrace to media organizations (including the AP) for major Vatican events, including the conclave that elected Leo pope. But even Prevost saw the need for better fundraising, especially to help out poorer provinces. Toward the end of his 12-year term and with his support, a committee proposed creation of a foundation, Augustinians in the World. At the end of 2023, it had 994,000 euros ($1.13 million) in assets and was helping fund self-sustaining projects across Africa, including a center to rehabilitate former child soldiers in Congo. 'He has a very good interest and also a very good feeling for numbers,' Klein said. 'I have no worry about the finances of the Vatican in these years because he is very, very clever.' ___ Franklin Briceño contributed from Lima, Peru. ___ Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP's collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
