Latest news with #cashflows
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Venture Corporation Limited (SGX:V03)
The projected fair value for Venture is S$12.31 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Venture's S$11.07 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate Our fair value estimate is 1.7% higher than Venture's analyst price target of S$12.11 Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Venture Corporation Limited (SGX:V03) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (SGD, Millions) S$282.3m S$191.8m S$261.2m S$221.8m S$199.9m S$187.5m S$180.7m S$177.4m S$176.4m S$177.0m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x3 Est @ -15.09% Est @ -9.85% Est @ -6.19% Est @ -3.62% Est @ -1.83% Est @ -0.57% Est @ 0.31% Present Value (SGD, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% S$264 S$168 S$214 S$170 S$143 S$126 S$113 S$104 S$96.8 S$90.9 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = S$1.5b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = S$177m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.4%) = S$4.0b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= S$4.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= S$2.1b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is S$3.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of S$11.1, the company appears about fair value at a 10% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Venture as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.047. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Venture Strength Currently debt free. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Singaporean market. Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Venture, there are three essential elements you should look at: Risks: Take risks, for example - Venture has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does V03's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Singaporean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Fair Value Of Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE)
The projected fair value for Ameren is US$91.75 based on Dividend Discount Model Current share price of US$96.88 suggests Ameren is potentially trading close to its fair value Our fair value estimate is 11% lower than Ameren's analyst price target of US$103 Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We have to calculate the value of Ameren slightly differently to other stocks because it is a integrated utilities company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.4%. Relative to the current share price of US$96.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = US$3.2 / (6.4% – 2.9%) = US$91.8 Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ameren as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Ameren Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average. Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Integrated Utilities market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows. Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Ameren, we've put together three further aspects you should further research: Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ameren (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about. Future Earnings: How does AEE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) Will Pay A Dividend Of A$0.24
The board of GrainCorp Limited (ASX:GNC) has announced that it will pay a dividend of A$0.24 per share on the 17th of July. Based on this payment, the dividend yield on the company's stock will be 6.1%, which is an attractive boost to shareholder returns. Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in GrainCorp. Read for free now. A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. Prior to this announcement, GrainCorp's dividend was making up a very large proportion of earnings and perhaps more concerning was that it was 109% of cash flows. Paying out such a high proportion of cash flows can expose the business to needing to cut the dividend if the business runs into some challenges. Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 64.7%. If the dividend continues on its recent course, the payout ratio in 12 months could be 97%, which is a bit high and could start applying pressure to the balance sheet. See our latest analysis for GrainCorp The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was A$0.20 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was A$0.48. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 9.1% per annum over that time. A reasonable rate of dividend growth is good to see, but we're wary that the dividend history is not as solid as we'd like, having been cut at least once. Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. We are encouraged to see that GrainCorp has grown earnings per share at 6.5% per year over the past five years. Recently, the company has been able to grow earnings at a decent rate, but with the payout ratio on the higher end we don't think the dividend has many prospects for growth. Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. The track record isn't great, and the payments are a bit high to be considered sustainable. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock. Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. Just as an example, we've come across 3 warning signs for GrainCorp you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) Will Pay A Dividend Of A$0.24
The board of GrainCorp Limited (ASX:GNC) has announced that it will pay a dividend of A$0.24 per share on the 17th of July. Based on this payment, the dividend yield on the company's stock will be 6.1%, which is an attractive boost to shareholder returns. Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in GrainCorp. Read for free now. A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. Prior to this announcement, GrainCorp's dividend was making up a very large proportion of earnings and perhaps more concerning was that it was 109% of cash flows. Paying out such a high proportion of cash flows can expose the business to needing to cut the dividend if the business runs into some challenges. Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 64.7%. If the dividend continues on its recent course, the payout ratio in 12 months could be 97%, which is a bit high and could start applying pressure to the balance sheet. See our latest analysis for GrainCorp The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was A$0.20 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was A$0.48. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 9.1% per annum over that time. A reasonable rate of dividend growth is good to see, but we're wary that the dividend history is not as solid as we'd like, having been cut at least once. Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. We are encouraged to see that GrainCorp has grown earnings per share at 6.5% per year over the past five years. Recently, the company has been able to grow earnings at a decent rate, but with the payout ratio on the higher end we don't think the dividend has many prospects for growth. Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. The track record isn't great, and the payments are a bit high to be considered sustainable. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock. Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. Just as an example, we've come across 3 warning signs for GrainCorp you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
