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Mail & Guardian
4 days ago
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
Ample grain and oilseed harvest in SA bodes well for food price inflation
Agriculture in the country is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may have quality problems Glimpses of positivity often arise from the agricultural data and are worth highlighting. These do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal diseases in cattle farming and the poultry industry. But, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. The message I continue to receive from farmers of various fruits, vegetables, grains and oilseeds, as well as other field crops, suggests a promising agricultural season. The yields are up from last year's drought. For a moment, I was worried that the excessive rains throughout April would cause quality damage to some crops. At the start of the harvest season, particularly in some grains, some farmers also had this concern. But things seem to have changed quite significantly. I've heard that the quality of crops, especially soybeans, is not as bad as we anticipated, although there are areas with problems. Nevertheless, what is encouraging is seeing a continuous upward revision of the harvest. For example, on 27 June, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its fifth production estimate for the 2024-25 season, lifting the expected harvest. While there are five more estimates to come in the following months, when we reach the fifth estimate, we generally have more confidence in the size of the crop, as well as its quality, because some areas would have delivered a sizable share of their crop to the silos. The CEC raised South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production by 3% from the May 2025 estimate to 18.43 million tonnes. This represents a 19% increase from the previous season. A closer look at the data shows that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+1%), soybeans (+14%) and dry beans (+4%). The other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month. More specifically, the maize harvest is now forecast at 14.78 million tonnes, which is 15% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Of these 14.78 million tonnes, about 7.65 million tonnes is white maize, and 7.13 million tonnes is yellow maize. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's annual maize needs of about 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize. Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.65 million tonnes, representing a 43% year-over-year increase. The annual uptick is primarily because of improved yields resulting from favourable rainfall. A significant portion of the soybean crop has already been delivered to commercial silos, and the quality is generally encouraging. Importantly, this is the second-largest harvest on record, and it is not even finished. The record harvest of 2.77 million tonnes was recorded in the 2022-23 production season. This ample harvest also means South Africa will remain a net exporter of soybeans and products. We are far from the time when we were a net importer of soybean products for animal feed, mainly oilcake. We are now in a net exporter position. Sunflower seeds are up 15% from the previous season and are estimated at 727.800 tonnes. The groundnut harvest is estimated at 63.510 tonnes (up 22% year-on-year), sorghum production is estimated at 137.970 tonnes (up 41% year-on-year), and the dry beans harvest is at 74.299 tonnes (up 47% year-on-year). The base effects and favourable agricultural conditions boosted the yields. We see the benefit of the solid harvest in generally softening commodity prices, which are now at lower levels than last year, boding well for the moderating food price inflation for the year. The benefits of these ample harvests may be more evident in the inflation data in the second half of the year. Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
New York Times
21-05-2025
- General
- New York Times
What Helped Clean Up Oklahoma Waters? Getting Cows to Use a Different Washroom.
What Helped Clean Up Oklahoma Waters? Getting Cows to Use a Different Washroom. Grant Victor wasn't sure what to expect when he decided to fence his cattle off from Horse Creek, which wends through northeast Oklahoma, bisecting his family's pastures and cropland. The original plot of land has been in his family since the 1890s, and they added to it over the years. But a century's worth of bovine traffic had left the creek's banks muddy and bare, and its waters thick with kicked-up sediment and animal waste. In 2016, Mr. Victor resolved to change that. Working with a conservation program, he installed fencing around Horse Creek, creating a protective riparian buffer, even though it meant keeping his animals off 220 acres, about 6 percent of his family's land. Today, Horse Creek is no longer on the state's list of most contaminated waterways. And, thanks to practices such as the ones enacted by Mr. Victor, about 100 Oklahoman streams once polluted by runoff predominantly from farmland have been restored to health. That's more than in any other state, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. For Mr. Victor, the decision to fence his cattle off from the waterway wasn't easy. The creek was why his great-grandmother, who was Cherokee, especially prized the land. The parcel was allotted to her in 1891 through the Dawes Act, which allowed the federal government to break up tribal land. The waterway gave the family's cattle a place where they could drink and cool off. 'I'm sure at the coffee shop, they were all laughing at me,' Mr. Victor, 68, said. The benefits of a healthier waterway exceeded his hopes. Mr. Victor thought that the land around the creek might regenerate in five years, perhaps 10. But within just a couple of years, the banks were transformed into verdant corridors of grasses and shrubs. Wildlife appeared, including white-tailed deer, bobcats, coyotes and bald eagles that return each year to a sprawling nest to rear their young. The health of his cows improved, too. Mr. Victor installed pipes and wells in the pastures, allowing his cattle to drink water unsullied by sediment and their own waste. They put on more weight and suffered fewer respiratory ailments, and that resulted in lower veterinary bills. 'The amazing thing that I have to keep telling people is, 'You can't believe how quickly it all changed,'' Mr. Victor said. 'Mother Nature knows how to heal itself. It always has and always will, but you have to give it a chance.' Shanon Phillips, director of the Water Quality Division at the Oklahoma Conservation Commission, said the state had started using federal funds to track stream health in the late 1990s. Getting livestock and crop farmers to adopt conservation practices was key. Steve Glasgow recently retired as a state resource conservationist with the Natural Resources Conservation Services, a division of the Agriculture Department. He said memories of the Dust Bowl prompted many Oklahoma farmers to adopt practices such as cover crops and no-till farming, which help to stem erosion and nutrient runoff. That benefits the health of soil and nearby waterways. Mr. Glasgow estimates that nearly a third of Oklahoma's crop farmers employ conservation practices, up from roughly one-fifth 25 years ago. 'They know what happened to the generations before them, their dads and granddads,' Mr. Glasgow said. 'They're very much conservation-minded, wanting to keep soil in place and not let erosion take place.' Those conservation practices can also increase yields and reduce labor and fuel costs. While the Trump administration cut an Agriculture Department program supporting cover crops and no-till farming, Ms. Phillips said there was still funding for those practices through the current farm bill. Mr. Glasgow said that ranchers could be resistant to keeping cattle out of waterways. Regular flooding can wash out fences, and some question the effects of their livestock on distant watersheds. 'It's just a hard sell,' he said. For Mr. Victor, one deciding factor was the water health of Grand Lake, a popular vacation spot that is part of the same watershed as Horse Creek. In 2011, James M. Inhofe, then a longtime Republican senator and climate science denialist, announced that he'd gotten ill after swimming in toxic algae at the lake. Mr. Victor was already using cover crops and no-till practices at the time. 'I decided I want to be a part of helping fix it,' he said. A government program covered the bulk of the cost of the watering systems and fences, and Mr. Victor spent around $250,000. Still, he said he had since largely recouped the investment. The new wells allowed for rotational grazing, leading to healthier grass and soil, and more cows in the fields, improving productivity. He also secured an agreement with the Grand River Dam Authority, Oklahoma's largest utility, to collect payments for 30 years for the conserved land. Ms. Phillips said water quality at Grand Lake had improved, helped by major landowners who adopted conservation easements. 'We haven't solved all the problems with Grand Lake, but it was a demonstration that we could have meaningful water quality improvement with those voluntary programs,' she said. Mr. Victor, who was nominated in 2023 to serve on the Oklahoma Conservation Commission, said many of his fellow farmers remained skeptical about conservation practices. But, he said, 'my dad always taught me there's some things you can't afford to do and there's other things you can't afford not to do.' 'This was one of the things I couldn't afford not to do,' he added.
