Latest news with #climatologist
Fast Company
2 days ago
- Climate
- Fast Company
Are 1 in 1,000 year floods getting more common?
BY There have been five '1 in 1,000 year floods' this summer alone in the continental U.S. Heavy rains have poured over Texas, North Carolina, New Mexico, Illinois, and Florida over the past months causing streets to flood, homes to suffer irreparable damage, and people losing their lives', loved ones, and pets. The death toll alone in Texas is at 135 as of July 25, as search efforts begin to end with only three more persons still missing—the result of over three weeks of searching. The .1% chance of these floods occurring makes their recent frequency alarming. This, coupled with other recent flash floods across major East Coast states like New York, Boston, and New Jersey and projected flash floods to continue in central and southwestern U.S., makes for increasingly unsettling future forecasts. But are these weather patterns actually out of the norm—or are these floods becoming more common? How 'rare' are 1,000 year floods? The phrase '1 in 1,000 year floods' comes from the fact that statistically, floods of that intensity and destruction are likely to happen once every 1,000 years (or a .1% likelihood). In 2024, there were 35 1,000-year floods across the U.S. and more than triple that number of 100-year floods, which have a statistical probability of happening 1% of the time. 'As far as I'm aware, if we tracked 1 in 1,000 year flood events over time, you wouldn't necessarily see a discernible increase in the number of events per year,' says Allie Mazurek, a climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center. 'However, on a more general scale, we are expecting to see more extreme precipitation events in a warmer climate.' An interactive map from the Colorado Climate Center—which is updated in near real-time—tracks high precipitation events across the country. It combines past research and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14, a precipitation frequency data interface, to track high-precipitation events from 2002 to today in every state but Washington and Oregon (their data has yet to be updated on NOAA's precipitation server). The data sets visually depict the number of 1,000 year heavy precipitation rates from 2002 to 2024. Each year follows similar patterns and frequency. But that doesn't mean rainfall and subsequent flooding isn't intensifying. Mazurek says there are two factors at play for these natural disasters: the frequency in which rain falls, and the intensity: how much it rains in a short amount of time. According to independent climate research group Climate Central, 88% of 144 locations across all nine climate regions in the U.S. have experienced a 15% increase in hourly rainfall intensity since 1970. Nearly two-thirds of those locations experienced at least a 10% increase or more in the same period. Mazurek says these trends come down to one primary effect of climate change—humidity. Rising temperatures create 'wet' air 'Essentially, when you have warmer temperatures, that allows more water to exist in the vapor phase, and therefore, you get more water up in the atmosphere,' Mazurek said. 'Then when you get a thunderstorm, there is more water available to it when it starts to precipitate and make rainfall. If you're adding more water to the atmosphere, you'll get more rainfall as a result.' Climate Central says that for every single Fahrenheit degree of Earth warming, the air holds 4% more moisture. Give that the Earth's temperature has risen by roughly two degrees Fahrenheit since the pre-industrial era, there's simply often more water available to create intense rainfall. So while the statistical probability of these floods occurring won't change, their severity could get worse 'Mitigation and adaptation' Flash floods aren't expected to subside anytime soon this summer, with Accuweather meteorologists warning that additional flooding events can be expected due to this summer's continued trend of high precipitation predictions. 'I think there's definitely more work that all of us together could work on for extreme rainfall and flood events from meteorologists to emergency managers,' Mazurek said. 'We all obviously have more work to do communicating those kinds of events and keeping people safe. I think that is still a very active area of research.' However, with recent Trump administration changes to climate policy, emergency weather cuts at NOAA, and the dismantling of FEMA, these efforts may become more and more difficult, even as climate-driven natural disasters increase. 'We expect kind of both sides of the extremes to get more extreme,' Mazurek said. 'Heavy precipitation, extreme rains, flooding events, as well as drought. They each work off their own feedback.' The super-early-rate deadline for Fast Company's Most Innovative Companies Awards is tonight, July 25, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply today.
CTV News
19-07-2025
- Climate
- CTV News
‘Very unhealthy': climatologist David Phillips on Canada's summer air quality
Watch Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips explains how wildfires are impacting Canada's air quality this summer.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
More Chantals in our future: Climate change will likely increase storms, flooding
Storms like Chantal, isolated flooding from sudden cloudbursts and other natural disasters will likely become more frequent and intense thanks to climate change, scientists say. 'It can be a bit tougher to be that definitive with things like heavy rainfall from tropical storms, since those are relatively rare events,' said Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist. 'But when we see new daily rainfall records of 8 inches or more in places like Chapel Hill, all from [Chantal] that was only a tropical depression, then we can at least say that this was beyond what we've seen historically from a tropical storm, and that the impacts such as heavy rain and flooding line up with what we expect due to climate change.' Heavier rainfall can be fueled by rising local and global temperatures. Increasing temperatures are a climate change indicator, and North Carolina is warmer now than in the previous century. And it is very likely the state's temperatures will rise by at least 2 to 4 degrees by the middle of this century, according to the N.C. Climate Science Report. Warmer weather leads to denser clouds that hold more water, eventually causing heavier rainfall. 'This is closely tied to another basic scientific principle — that a warmer atmosphere is also a wetter one, and weather systems like tropical storms that form in this environment can bring heavier rain over shorter time periods than we've seen historically,' Davis said Davis also commented on heavy rainfall from recent storms in North Carolina, including Hurricanes Florence and Matthew, Hurricane Helene, which had weakened before reaching Western North Carolina, and Chantal. 'The sorts of rainfall we've seen from those storms, with more than 20 inches in some cases, used to be a once-in-a-lifetime event. Now it's something we're seeing somewhere in the state every few years, or even multiple times per year like in 2024.' Weather and climate are closely related but not interchangeable. 'The climate is what we expect while the weather is what we actually get,' Davis explained. Weather describes the conditions in an area at a particular time. It's what people see on a day-to-day basis — rain, sunshine, snow, etc. Climate describes typical weather patterns in an area over a long period of time. Scientists measure weather conditions daily, then use averages to predict the climate during a particular season. Daily weather often differs from the average climate. 'For example, our climate tells us that wintertime is when we expect to get snow, but in some years we may not see any, while in other winters like this past one, we can see multiple snow events,' Davis said. Climate change is a long-term shift in average weather patterns. Differences in temperature, rainfall and greenhouse gas emissions — greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in the earth's atmosphere — are some of the markers used to measure climate change. And the scientific data demonstrates global climate change. Davis stated that greenhouse gas emissions have been the main driver of climate change. 'While the earth's atmosphere has always had some of these gases ... we've effectively supercharged the atmosphere with more of those gases than it can cycle through naturally, and that has led to the warming temperatures and its consequences,' he said. And while it might seem like a new concept, Davis said, 'it has been well known to atmospheric scientists for more than a hundred years.' Global data shows increases in carbon dioxide levels and average air temperatures dating back to the early 20th century, he said. Scientists are very confident that rising global temperatures are largely due to human actions that significantly increase carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, according to the the most recent N.C. Climate Science Report. NC Reality Check is an N&O series holding those in power accountable and shining a light on public issues that affect the Triangle or North Carolina. Have a suggestion for a future story? Email realitycheck@
ABC News
08-07-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
Eastern states shivered through a chilly June, is a warmer winter still on the cards?
It is now two weeks past the winter solstice, and despite a prediction of a warmer winter, many Australians have been feeling the cold. Large parts of the country have shivered through sub-zero temperatures and there have been big dumps of snow and powerful storms. So, have temperatures been significantly cold, or has the country become acclimatised to milder winter temperatures? A look at overnight minimum temperatures, which typically occur first thing in the morning, indicates days have started particularly chilly in many parts of Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology's temperature anomaly map shows most of the country experienced "cooler than average" minimum temperatures for June, apart from southern WA, western South Australia and northern Queensland. Daytime maximum temperatures, however, were closer to average for most of the country, apart from WA, which was warmer than normal. BOM climatologist Qian Zhou said the cold mornings had made it New South Wales's coldest June in nearly 20 years, by minimum temperature, while Queensland had its coldest June minimums in over a decade. "In June, several cold fronts passed us through the south and south-east with cold air behind it," Ms Zhou said. "And after the cold front passed, high-pressure systems settled in, creating the clear skies and the light winds overnight, allowing heat to escape. The cold minimum temperatures included -10 degrees Celsius in Goulburn, in the New South Wales Southern Tablelands, on June 21, which was colder than some sites in Antarctica. Canberra had three mornings in a row below -7C, a record cold run for the city. Tasmania also saw some particularly cold mornings late in the month, with Liawenee plunging to -9C, while Queensland's typically mild weather was freezing on several occasions. While the frigid mornings have warranted a scarf and beanie, they have been far from remarkable by historical standards — with the month coming in as the 48th coldest June on record. "Although the minimum temperature in June across Australia was below average, it was not that remarkably low compared to history," Ms Zhou said. Barely more than a handful of sites with more than 20 years of data broke daily cold records. Ms Zhou said record cold temperatures were becoming less common because of climate change. Since 1910, Australia's average temperature has warmed by more than 1.5C, with most of that change occurring since the 1950s. It means all seasons are getting warmer on average. The last "colder than average" winter, for example, was more than a decade ago. While cold extremes have become rarer, warm extremes have been getting more common, according to Ms Zhou. "And there has been an increase in number of extreme heat events. "A big part of this is due to global warming." The exception was for extreme cold nights in parts of south-east and south-west Australia, where the frequency of frost had been relatively unchanged since the 1980s. Ms Zhou said this was because those regions were also facing a rainfall decline during the cooler months, resulting in more time under clear skies and more "heat loss from the surface" — just like this year. The official winter outlook strongly favoured warm days and nights for June for almost the entire country. June was warmer than average for maximum temperatures. So, in that case, the outlook was accurate. But for the minimum temperatures, the outlook showed strong odds of warm minimum temperatures and for most places, that did not eventuate. Ms Zhou said it demonstrated how individual weather events, which were not able to be detected in the long-range outlook, could change the outcome of a month or season. "The long-range forecasts are unable to predict individual weather events more than one or two weeks in advance," she said. "Those weather systems are short timescales, but the long-range outlook is providing a forecast of the overall trend for the season. "In June, there were at least two major cold fronts with cold outbreaks, which brought abnormally cold air to much of the country and particularly to the east, which the long-range forecast was unlikely to be able to resolve at a long lead time." Technically, though, the outlook can not be wrong because it is not declaring what will happen, but just presenting the odds. Even though there was an 80 per cent chance of it being warmer than average, there was still a 20 per cent chance of it being colder than average. In this case, the outside chance won. Just because June was cold, it does not mean the rest of winter will continue that way. You only need to look to last year as an example. Frigid temperatures in June 2024 saw many calling it the "coldest winter in living memory" and criticising the BOM for getting their forecast wrong. But by the end of August, it was Australia's second-warmest winter on record. The Bureau of Meteorology has softened its forecast for the rest of this winter though. For the most part, it is still expected to be warmer than normal for July and August. But what was a fairly emphatic signal of warmth for the entire country is now looking more patchy, depending on where you live. Parts of South Australia are now expected to have cooler-than-average minimum temperatures in July, though maximum temperatures are still expected to be above average for most. And by August, large parts of inland Australia are showing even chances of above- or below-average maximum temperatures — meaning it could go either way. As for rainfall, July is forecast to be average to below average for most places, apart from coastal NSW, which is expected to be wetter than normal. This changes in August, with rainfall largely favoured to be above average for most of the NT, Queensland, NSW and parts of South Australia.
CTV News
05-07-2025
- Climate
- CTV News
Climatologist David Phillips says to expect more heat-filled days this summer
Watch Environment Canada senior climatologist David Philips discusses heat warnings issued for parts of Ontario and Quebec, the threat of wildfires in the West.
