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Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumers are feeling the pressure of a stagnant labor market
Consumers are feeling worse about the labor market outlook. In June's Consumer Confidence Survey, 29.2% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," down from 31.1% in May. Meanwhile, 18.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down slightly from 18.4% in month prior. These may seem like mere details, but this pushed the difference between the two — a closely watched sentiment reading called the labor market differential — to just 11.1 percentage points in June. That marked the lowest gap since March 2021, when the job market was recovering from the onset of the pandemic. Coupled with the surprise of the reading, expected to be strong, and it's something of note. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy The current situation is different than the so-called vibecession of 2022, where consumers felt worse about the state of the economy than actual data had shown. This time, consumers aren't getting it twisted: There are clear signs of slowing in the labor market all over the place right now. Weekly filings for unemployment are hovering at an eight-month high. In a sign workers are taking longer to find jobs, continuing unemployment claims are near their highest level since November 2021. The hiring rate is near its lowest level in more than a decade. And the outlook for certain cohorts of the labor market, like tech workers and new college graduates, is worse than before the pandemic. "The lost momentum in the labor market is not lost on consumers," Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients. The weakening labor market outlook helped contribute to the broad Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly declining in June after a large May bounce back. But perhaps even more importantly, it's also one reason why some are clamoring for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates soon. In a speech on June 23, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman noted that while the labor market is showing signs of strength, it "appears to be less dynamic." "With inflation on a sustained trajectory toward 2%, softness in aggregate demand, and signs of fragility in the labor market, I think that we should put more weight on downside risks to our employment mandate going forward," Bowman said. But with seven officials forecasting no interest rate cuts this year and eight penciling in two cuts, there's clear debate about whether rising inflation or a weakening labor market will drive the Fed's policy decisions over the next few months. While testifying in front of House lawmakers on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell stressed the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" before moving interest rates. Powell cited wider-ranging metrics like the national unemployment rate at 4.2% and an average of 124,000 nonfarm payroll gains through the first five months of the year to describe labor market conditions as "solid." And it's hard to argue that. But the argument for the Fed to cut sooner rather than later isn't about the broad-ranging metrics flashing warning signs. If that were the case it wouldn't be an argument. Just look back to the Fed's jumbo half percentage point interest rate cut last September that came after a string of weak labor data. Instead, the key concern some economists have about the economic outlook is being expressed by slowing on the margin and the fear those data points could be pointing to something worse. As Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday, "I follow what consumers tell me about the jobs market since they tend to lead the actual data." A compelling argument. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Forbes
27-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Talent Sustainability: 10 Leadership Moves To Build A Workforce That Lasts
The paradox of simultaneous labor shortages and widespread job seeker rejection underscores the ... More pressing need for leaders to reassess and refine their talent acquisition and sustainability strategies. Here are 10 first steps. Despite employer complaints of unfilled vacancies, millions of qualified candidates—especially recent college graduates and those over 50—struggle to land interviews, let alone offers. This paradox underscores the pressing need for leaders to reassess and refine their talent acquisition and sustainability strategies. 'The unemployment rate for college graduates ages 22 to 27 jumped to 5.3 percent in the past six months ending in May, up from 4.4 percent for the same period a year earlier,' according to a recent Washington Post analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. While college graduates in that age range typically have lower unemployment rates than workers without degrees, this advantage is smaller today than it has been in 30 years. For older workers who also face ageist assumptions when seeking employment, research has found that nearly half of recruiters believe that applicants are too old to consider for a job by age 57. The results of the survey demonstrate that 'millions of older people risk being overlooked for jobs because of entrenched ageism in recruitment, despite companies facing a significant shortage of skilled workers.' Moreover, two in five recruiters reported being pressured by their bosses to hire younger candidates, while nearly two-thirds of HR professionals admitted to making assumptions about candidates based on their age. The most successful leaders–and businesses–will be those focused on talent sustainability across the age spectrum. That requires rethinking how to source for talent and how they are evaluated. Talent Sustainability Blind Spots Companies today face two significant blind spots that hinder their ability to attract and retain top talent. Firstly, most talent strategies ignore the global demographic reality. Secondly, most workforce strategies focus disproportionately on the mythical age sweet spot for hires. Across the globe, countries report increased longevity, combined with decades-long declines in birth rates–a demographic duo that challenges every company's talent sustainability strategy. To offset the decreasing talent pipeline and knowledge drain, leaders must pivot policies, procedures and workplace culture to facilitate the new whole-life career model and benefit from the longevity advantage. 'In the last 100 years, the 65+ age group has grown five times faster than the rest of the population. What's even more surprising are projections that people aged 75+ will constitute the fastest-growing age band in the civilian workforce between now and 2030,' Stephanie Henkenius, principal at Mercer writes. Outdated recruiting strategies and age-based assumptions result in limited talent pools with candidates who are all within the same age range. This highlights the ageism timeline, depicting a mythical sweet spot that excludes talent on both sides of the age spectrum. Younger workers are excluded from workplace opportunities because they lack experience, completely discounting demonstrated potential to learn and adapt. Older workers are often denied opportunities due to age stereotypes and assumptions that overlook their experiences and career aspirations. The ageism timeline shows how age bias and stereotyping hurts talent sustainability at both ends of ... More the age spectrum. As the ageism timeline suggests, both younger and older candidates are often excluded from hiring, development and promotional opportunities. Younger workers eventually move into the mythical sweet spot but then hit the age where exclusion becomes long-lasting or indefinite. Workplace Strategy: What Leaders Can Do Now Talent sustainability is a key leadership strategy. Proactive leaders who understand and respond to these talent blind spots will come out ahead. Below are 10 first steps that leaders can take now to strengthen talent sustainability of all ages. Creating a strong talent sustainability strategy requires ongoing, proactive management. Leaders model the whole-life career model when practices and policies make it clear that employees are valued for their skills, abilities and potential– regardless of age or life stage.
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumers are feeling the pressure of a stagnant labor market
Consumers are feeling worse about the labor market outlook. In June's Consumer Confidence Survey, 29.2% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," down from 31.1% in May. Meanwhile, 18.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down slightly from 18.4% in month prior. These may seem like mere details, but this pushed the difference between the two — a closely watched sentiment reading called the labor market differential — to just 11.1 percentage points in June. That marked the lowest gap since March 2021, when the job market was recovering from the onset of the pandemic. Coupled with the surprise of the reading, expected to be strong, and it's something of note. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy The current situation is different than the so-called vibecession of 2022, where consumers felt worse about the state of the economy than actual data had shown. This time, consumers aren't getting it twisted: There are clear signs of slowing in the labor market all over the place right now. Weekly filings for unemployment are hovering at an eight-month high. In a sign workers are taking longer to find jobs, continuing unemployment claims are near their highest level since November 2021. The hiring rate is near its lowest level in more than a decade. And the outlook for certain cohorts of the labor market, like tech workers and new college graduates, is worse than before the pandemic. "The lost momentum in the labor market is not lost on consumers," Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients. The weakening labor market outlook helped contribute to the broad Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly declining in June after a large May bounce back. But perhaps even more importantly, it's also one reason why some are clamoring for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates soon. In a speech on June 23, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman noted that while the labor market is showing signs of strength, it "appears to be less dynamic." "With inflation on a sustained trajectory toward 2%, softness in aggregate demand, and signs of fragility in the labor market, I think that we should put more weight on downside risks to our employment mandate going forward," Bowman said. But with seven officials forecasting no interest rate cuts this year and eight penciling in two cuts, there's clear debate about whether rising inflation or a weakening labor market will drive the Fed's policy decisions over the next few months. While testifying in front of House lawmakers on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell stressed the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" before moving interest rates. Powell cited wider-ranging metrics like the national unemployment rate at 4.2% and an average of 124,000 nonfarm payroll gains through the first five months of the year to describe labor market conditions as "solid." And it's hard to argue that. But the argument for the Fed to cut sooner rather than later isn't about the broad-ranging metrics flashing warning signs. If that were the case it wouldn't be an argument. Just look back to the Fed's jumbo half percentage point interest rate cut last September that came after a string of weak labor data. Instead, the key concern some economists have about the economic outlook is being expressed by slowing on the margin and the fear those data points could be pointing to something worse. As Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday, "I follow what consumers tell me about the jobs market since they tend to lead the actual data." A compelling argument. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
