Latest news with #consumer_spending
Wall Street Journal
22-05-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Bank of Canada's Macklem Warns of Weaker Growth Without Tariff Resolution
BANFF, Alberta–Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said Thursday the economy risks weakening further unless there is a relatively quick resolution to the U.S.-Canada trade conflict. Following the end of the Group of Seven meeting of finance and central bank chiefs, Macklem said he expects first-quarter gross-domestic data to show weak consumer spending and business investment, which will be partly offset by a buildup in inventories as companies sought to escape retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports.
News.com.au
14-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Real wages grow to 3.4 per cent as household consumption softens
St George Bank Chief Economist Besa Deda says real wage growth will support consumer spending despite 'soft' household consumption. 'Real wages growing means that it will help support consumer spending growth and overall economic activity,' Ms Deda told Sky News host Ross Greenwood. 'We have seen over the last period that household consumption has been pretty soft due to the cost of living expenses. 'Although the recent rate cut in February has helped alleviate some of those cost-of-living expenses.'
Yahoo
11-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US economy will slow this year & rebound in 2026, economist says
Economic growth may be slowing, but it's not stalling. Vanguard chief economist and global head of portfolio construction Roger Aliaga-Díaz joins Catalysts to explain why tariffs are triggering a price shock first, with slower consumer spending expected later this year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. We are gearing up to hear President Trump speak about this potential US and UK deal. But Roger, from an economic perspective here, where is your head at when it comes to the US economy potentially slowing off the back of these tariffs? If we start to get deal making headlines in from a country like the UK, for example, does that move the needle for you on your outlook for the US economy at all? Yeah, great to be here. Um, well, um, obviously, we're we're tracking the the headlines and the news very closely to see if we need to revise our our expectations for the year. But the but the reality is that there is some level of of uncertainty that has been already injected in the system. Uh, and probably will will be very difficult to undo even if we an announcement is made, right? Um, the level of tariffs we're talking about uh, with the UK, for example, 10% versus carbouts on cars or steel, um, may not materially really impact the that little general level of tariffs that we have. So, we have these uh, 0.8% growth for the year, um, considerably slower, no recession. But, uh, is it will depend really a lot about deals achieved with with China, mainly, and with other countries for for that picture to change dramatically. And, Roger, my guest host, Keith Lerner, has a question for you. Yeah, thanks so much. I was just curious. I mean, the big debate in the market right now is this kind of divergence between the hard data and the soft data. It sounds like you're at 0.8% GDP. So, that would that would lead me to suspect that you think that we're going to have a convergence to the downside with the the soft data leading to the hard data following suit shortly. And, if so, when do you expect to see that in the numbers? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, um, I I think what happened with tariffs is that, um, clearly, you don't see it in the in the activity data yet. So, the the hard data, when you see, even high frequency, uh, indicators, uh, like retail tracks and consumer spending, and things that you you don't see until later, um, the first place where you're going to see the impact of tariffs is on the price side, on inflation shock. So, we're really keeping a close eye on on things like PPI and and import prices versus CPI, um, and also on tariff revenues because that's the clear evidence that tariffs are actually impacting imports import activity. So, we're going to see that price shock first. That price shock, in turn, is going to impact the purchasing power of the consumer, and that is going to eventually turn into a slowdown in in activity data and in consumer spending data more towards the back end of the year. Would you would you expect as we move past some of this, maybe even if if it's by the end of the year, that we actually then see a bit of a kickback, or move back up next year? Or are you thinking that this is going to be prolonged where we have that slow economic environment today, and that next year, we're still going to run around 1% or less? No, um, this is the thing with with tariffs. Um, there is this one, um, off shock, but on the price side and on the on the spending side. Once, um, the the tariffs are set at that level, you could, basically, in terms of growth rates, right? In terms of the how fast the economy is growing, you can have a a 2026 where the economy is going back to something closer to 2%. Um, of course, the uncertainty will continue, basically hindering the the activity and the investment decisions, right? Because even if you achieve a bilateral agreements, um, you never know when those terms of the agreement, or the enforcement commitments under of that agreement are are changed, right? So, the uncertainty is something that may continue underlying. But, you could you could see how activity will go back even though levels of activity, right? Like the the consumer spending levels are not recovered. The growth rate next year of the lower base could actually become more normal. Same with with inflation. Same with inflation, right? So, we see inflation, perhaps, jumping to something like high threes this year. Next year, you could well see inflation going back down, not because prices have decreased, but because the inflation rate is actually normalizing. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
11-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US economy will slow this year & rebound in 2026, economist says
Economic growth may be slowing, but it's not stalling. Vanguard chief economist and global head of portfolio construction Roger Aliaga-Díaz joins Catalysts to explain why tariffs are triggering a price shock first, with slower consumer spending expected later this year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
CNA
09-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
Japan March real wages dip, consumer spending up
TOKYO :Japanese real wages decreased for a third consecutive month in March, squeezed by relentless inflation although consumer spending beat expectations, government data showed on Friday. The mixed wage and spending data highlights Japan's challenging growth outlook, as the export-reliant economy faces tariff threats and uncertainty over monetary policy. Economists are expecting to see a contraction in first-quarter gross domestic product next week. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a key determinant of households' purchasing power, dropped 2.1 per cent in March from a year earlier following a revised 1.5 per cent fall in February and a 2.8 per cent decline in January, labour ministry data showed. The consumer inflation rate the ministry uses to calculate real wages, which includes fresh food prices but not rent costs, rose 4.2 per cent year-on-year in March, easing slightly from February's 4.3 per cent gain but still elevated due to rising food costs. Regular pay, or base salary, grew 1.3 per cent in March, the same pace as in February after a downward revision. But overtime pay fell 1.1 per cent, following February's revised 2.4 per cent growth, indicating a potential softening in business activity. It marked the first dip in overtime pay since September, and the decrease was the sharpest since April last year. Total average cash earnings, or nominal pay, increased 2.1 per cent to 308,572 yen ($2,132) in March, which was slower than a revised 2.7 per cent rise in the previous month. In March, major Japanese firms on average agreed to more than 5 per cent pay hikes during annual spring wage talks, but the effect of such raises typically begins to show up in the government's wage data for April or later. "Looking ahead, real wages would likely move in positive territory," said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, adding lower oil prices and a stronger yen will put downward pressure on import prices and keep inflation under control. At the same time, Koike said a global economic slowdown from U.S. tariffs could risk stalling wage hike momentum. Meanwhile, separate internal affairs ministry data showed Japan's household spending rose 2.1 per cent from a year earlier, much better than the median market forecast for a 0.2 per cent uptick. On a seasonally adjusted, month-on-month basis, spending rose 0.4 per cent, versus an estimated 0.5 per cent decline. An internal affairs ministry official said increases in utilities and entertainment spending had pushed up overall figures, adding there were signs consumption had picked up in recent months. The official, though, said consumers were still cutting spending on food items because of higher prices. "Real wages are expected to improve, but it is difficult to imagine a significant increase in consumption in the face of increasing uncertainty" like tariffs, Koike of Sompo Institute Plus said. ($1 = 144.7500 yen)
