Latest news with #cornyield
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Grain Traders Await Key USDA Report on August 12. Big US Corn, Soybean Crops Expected.
Grain futures markets trading action may be muted on Monday ahead of what is arguably the data point of the month for the grain markets: Tuesday's USDA monthly supply and demand report. Huge and even record yields could be forecast for U.S. corn (ZCZ25) and soybean (ZSX25) crops. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect U.S. corn production this year at 15.991 billion bushels, with an average yield of 184.3 bushels an acre. The record for U.S. corn production, according to USDA, is the 15.186-billion-bushel crop grown in 2024, with a record average yield of 183.6 bushels per acre. The Dow Jones Newswires survey expects U.S. soybean production in 2025 at 4.371 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.0 bushels an acre. U.S. soybean production in 2024 totaled 4.37 billion bushels, which was also a record. The average yield per acre was 50.7 bushels, More News from Barchart What Game Is Being Played in Grains Early Monday Morning? Traders Sold the Rumor. Is It Time to Buy the Facts with Soybean Meal Here? Tightness in Coffee Supplies Underpins Prices Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Bearish USDA Data Expected for Corn and Soybeans, But… Price action in corn and soybean futures early last week saw significant selling pressure, with December corn hitting a fresh contract low and November soybeans scoring a four-month low. However, by the end of the week both markets had stabilized, suggesting that the bears had become exhausted, especially in the corn market. I suspect traders last week were factoring into futures prices the expected bearish USDA crop report on Tuesday. Such suggests that a classic 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' scenario may play out following Tuesday's crop report. U.S. Midwest Weather Still Leans Bearish for Corn, Soybeans Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is still non-threatening, with generally adequate soil moisture levels and rains still falling in the region. Weather forecasters say such will likely be the case for at least the next two weeks. There will also be a lack of widespread heat for at least another week. Warmer- to much-warmer-than-normal temperatures will be most common through the next week, but widespread, excessive heat is not expected, according to weather forecasters. August is arguably the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. Export Demand for U.S. Corn Picking Up Steam USDA last Friday reported another daily U.S. corn sale of 125,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year. Last Thursday, USDA reported weekly old-crop U.S. corn sales of 170,400 metric tons for 2024-25 for the week ended July 31, down 50% from the previous week and down 71% from the four-week average. However, new-crop corn sales totaled a solid 3.163 million MT. The 2025-26 marketing year corn export sales pace is now more than double the rate seen one year ago at this time. It may be difficult for corn market bears to continue to press the downside in corn futures if the U.S. corn export sales pace continues to be strong. October will find the U.S. corn harvest in full swing, and with a bumper crop expected, rallies and an extended price uptrend in corn futures will likely be limited by commercial hedging pressure. A better handle on the size of the U.S. crop will also come likely at that time, with combines rolling and yields from farmers rolling in. Soybean Meal Futures Providing Early Bullish Clues The soybean meal futures market had a good week last week, as spreaders unwound long bean oil (ZLU25), short meal (ZMU25) trades. If meal continues to perform well this week, that would be an early sign the soybean futures market has also put in a near-term low. Soybean bulls continue to anxiously await new-crop purchases from China. If the U.S. and China agree to a trade deal in the coming weeks or few months, the soybean market likely would get a significant price boost. Conversely, a deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations would be a bearish weight on the soybean futures complex. Wheat Market Bulls Are Still Struggling After swooning to contract lows last week, the winter wheat futures (KEZ25) (ZWZ25) markets posted decent rebounds Wednesday and Thursday and saw just modest corrective pullbacks Friday. Key for the bulls this week will be to show some price strength to better suggest near-term market price bottoms are in place. Wheat traders will be looking to the corn market for daily price direction. Tuesday's midday USDA supply and demand report is also in focus for wheat traders. The Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect all U.S. wheat production to come in at 1.925 billion bushels. U.S. wheat harvesting weather has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains is winding down. The Canadian Prairies wheat region has seen some dry weather that hurt wheat production potential. USDA last Thursday reported weekly U.S. wheat sales of 737,800 MT for the week ended July 31, up 25% from the previous week and four-week average. Sales exceeded pre-report expectations. U.S. wheat sales abroad will need to continue to improve in the coming weeks to get the winter wheat markets out of their slump and possibly begin sustainable price uptrends. U.S. winter wheat harvest will be mostly completed in the coming weeks, which suggests less commercial hedging pressure on futures prices. The wheat market bulls will be looking to new trade deals between the U.S. and other countries, including China, to potentially boost U.S. wheat export prospects in the coming months. Tell me what you think. I really enjoy getting emails from my valued Barchart readers all over the world. Email me at jim@ On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Zawya
10-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Can US corn yield meet ballooning expectations?
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.) NAPERVILLE, Illinois - The U.S. corn yield appears on pace to break its six-year streak of undershooting trendline expectations, and some analyst predictions have gotten quite lofty. But how reasonable are some of these assumptions? What's the true yield potential, and could anything derail the crop from here? Corn conditions in the top state of Iowa are at a 31-year high for July, and the rest of the Corn Belt is in decent shape. Additionally, near-term weather outlooks remain supportive. The market has certainly noticed. CBOT December corn futures hit contract lows again on Wednesday, and prices are now chasing five-year lows for the date. Corn farmers have their sights set on 181 bushels per acre, this year's trendline yield set by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Yield has not exceeded this trend since 2018, but at 74% good-to-excellent, current corn crop conditions are the week's best since 2018. Iowa's 86% good-to-excellent stands out, but conditions across other states are solid. Only three key states (Ohio, North Dakota, Michigan) carry below-average corn ratings this week, and those margins are at most a few percentage points. So what would it look like if the corn crop truly does fire on all cylinders? SCENARIOS A national corn yield of 181 bpa requires state-level yields to exceed recent averages. Multiplying USDA's latest harvested acreage estimates by each state's five-year-average yield would put the national number at 174.8 bpa. Above-average assumptions should probably be made at this point, though some analyst estimates have reached into the mid-180s. National yield would be 189.5 bpa this year if every state matched previous yield records. That specific outcome would never happen, but it sets an upper bound based on previously observed yields. If the two best yields of the last five years are averaged by state, national yield drops to 184.4. Taking the three best yields of the last five years would result in 181.6 bpa, so this scenario most closely represents USDA's trendline. But things are going exceptionally well in Iowa, which accounts for 17% of the U.S. corn crop. Last year, Iowa scored a record 211 bpa, some 3.4% higher than its previous max. Repeating those gains in 2025 would yield 218 bpa, and this makes a huge difference nationally. Taking the previous scenario that resulted in 181.6 bpa and plugging in 218 for Iowa raises the national yield to 183.5. Yes, Iowa by itself could have a 2-bpa impact on overall yield. Last year's national yield record of 179.3 bpa consisted of only six states notching new highs, but Iowa and Illinois were among them. This means that any shortfall in Ohio, North Dakota or elsewhere this year could be more than offset by a banner Iowa harvest. REPORT EXPECTATIONS Although not impossible, USDA is unlikely to change its U.S. corn yield estimate on Friday. The last time corn yield increased in July was 2003, though the agency has since altered its methodology. August, however, could be a doozy. Big August corn yields have been printed in years where crop conditions were similarly strong to today, including 2016 and 2018. The crop was also doing well in early July 2020, and USDA estimated a whopper yield that August. The August corn yield, which incorporates farm operator surveys, has a history of coming in heavy. The figure has landed above the average trade estimate in seven of the last 10 years, topping all trade estimates in four of those years. The August corn yield also has a history of being too high, and that has been the case in seven of the last 10 years. Interestingly, 2016, 2018 and 2020 were among them. Corn yields tend to disappoint versus late summer expectations if August temperatures, especially those overnight, are too warm. Dry August weather can also clip yields. The downside to corn yields is shrinking by the day given how well things have gone so far. At this point, it is the upside potential that should be monitored, because that can certainly be capped if the near-perfect weather streak encounters some speed bumps. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. (Writing by Karen Braun; Editing by Matthew Lewis)
