Latest news with #cropdevelopment
Reuters
12 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
What late-June sizzle could mean for US corn yields: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 18 (Reuters) - Although the U.S. Corn Belt is in for a scorching weekend, June weather has been mostly supportive of crop development, with corn health ratings improving for three consecutive weeks. But how much bearing might that have on final corn yields or weather outcomes for the pivotal month of July? As early as last year, meteorologists warned that the U.S. Corn Belt could be due for drought in 2025, though that has yet to unfold. A mid- or late-summer drought could still be in the cards, of course, and the yield impacts would vary depending on timing. Recently, new-crop CBOT corn futures appeared to be carrying minimal weather premium as prices sank to six-month lows this week. December corn has since bounced with this weekend's hot forecast in focus, though prices remain well off the year's peak. Recent weather models suggest that both temperatures and precipitation for June will be above average across the Midwestern United States. While warm Junes are more likely to feature dry conditions, this warm-wet combination is similar to last year. Corn yield outcomes have varied widely in relation to observed June weather. But July temperatures are where things start to separate. In the past quarter-century, the worst corn yield outcomes all coincided with warmer-than-normal Midwestern Julys. The truly good years featured cool Julys, but slightly warm temperatures were also passable a couple of times (2016, 2017). Big corn yields have resulted from abnormally dry Julys (2014), though this works only if July is cool and June and/or August rainfall is ample. The strongest corn yields all resulted in years where July-August Midwestern rainfall was near or above normal. Near-average yields have coincided with dry July-Augusts, but only when July temperatures were cool. Obviously, a hot July plus a dry July-August is the very worst combination for yields, which was seen in 2011 and 2012. Interestingly, 2011 is the last time that corn conditions improved over the same three weeks in June as the 2025 ones. But the fact that June 2025 will likely feature above-average rainfall doesn't tell us much about what's coming next. July and August have been both wet and dry following wet Junes, though warm Julys are more likely to follow warm Junes. Current extended forecasts suggest the next four weeks could be warmer than average across the central Corn Belt, featuring pockets of both wet and dry weather. Uncertainty is always high when it comes to long-range forecasts, but the current outlook should warrant some caution. August matters for U.S. soybean yields like July matters for corn. Last year, the market was harshly reminded of the need for August rains to support large soybean yields. August 2024 rainfall across the Midwest amounted to just 87% of normal, the driest August since 2013. But 2024 U.S. soybean yield forecasts were still easily at record levels as late as October. The government's yield estimate plunged 4.5% between October and January, the largest decline for that period since 1993, emphasizing the significance of the August rainfall deficit. That occurred despite above-average June and July rains, meaning the range of possibilities for U.S. soybean yields is even wider than those for corn given that August is still several weeks away. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
CTV News
6 days ago
- Climate
- CTV News
Seeding now 100% complete in Saskatchewan: crop report
Saskatchewan's Ministry of Agriculture says 100 per cent of the province's 2025 crop is now in the ground. According to the province's latest crop report, various stages of crop development are now being reported, thanks to varied amounts of rain throughout the province. Thirteen per cent of winter cereals are in the tillering stage, 20 per cent at stem elongation, 26 per cent at flag leaf, 36 per cent are heading and five per cent are in the dough stage. Nine per cent of spring cereals are at the pre-emergent stage, with 47 per cent at the seeding stage, 38 per cent are tillering and six per cent in the stem elongation stage. Eight per cent of pulse crops are at the pre-emergent stage, with 48 per cent at the seedling stage and 44 per cent are at the vegetative stage of development. Eighteen per cent of canola and mustard are at the pre-emergent stage, with 67 per cent at the seedling stage and 15 percent at the rosette stage. Eighteen per cent of flax is also at the pre-emergent stage with 68 per cent at the seedling stage and 14 per cent starting stem elongation, the province says. The Calder area received the most rainfall in the past week with 36 millimetres (mm). That was followed by the Stockholm region at 35 mm and the Rocanville area at 34 mm. 'Regions that did not receive significant amounts of precipitation have noted that rainfall is needed soon to avoid serious crop damage,' the province said. Crop damage over the past seven days was caused by dry conditions, heat and wind. The province says damage overall was reported as minor to moderate. 'Flea beetles, grasshoppers, cutworms and pea leaf weevil [also] continue to cause crop damage throughout many regions with some areas reporting minor to moderate crop damage,' the province said. A full provincial crop report can be found here.
