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Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee back on the ropes after US yields spike post jobs data
MUMBAI, June 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to come under renewed stress on Monday after the U.S. economy added slightly more number of jobs than was expected, prompting a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and bringing relief to the dollar. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated a open in the 85.74-85.78 range, versus the close of 85.6250 in the previous session. The Indian currency had found respite on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India delivered a larger-than-expected rate cut while the signalling limited room for more reductions. The policy surprise lifted domestic equities and lent support to the rupee. "The opening today is probably just a retracement of Friday's move," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "With the U.S. jobs data broadly positive for the dollar, the rupee is simply coming back under pressure." The trader is betting on a 85.60-86.00 range for the week with bias more-or-less neutral. Employers added 139,000 jobs last month, above estimates for an increase of 130,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in May against a rise of 0.3%. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations were scaled back post the data, Morgan Stanley said in its daily commentary. The market-implied rate for the December Fed meeting was re-priced 9 basis points higher, implying just 42 bps of rate cuts through 2025, it said, adding that the probability of a rate cut in July fell to 12% from 25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed nearly twelve bps on Friday and the dollar index rose 0.5%. The key U.S. jobs report followed a string of mostly weak data points that had raised concerns about the economic outlook. With that risk now tempered to an extent, attention turns to the pivotal U.S.-China trade talks scheduled to take place in London later in the day. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.84; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.75 paise ** Dollar index at 98.99 ** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $66.4 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.49% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $5.8 million worth of Indian shares on Jun. 5 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $9.3 million worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 5
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Rupee back on the ropes after US yields spike post jobs data
By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is set to come under renewed stress on Monday after the U.S. economy added slightly more number of jobs than was expected, prompting a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and bringing relief to the dollar. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated a open in the 85.74-85.78 range, versus the close of 85.6250 in the previous session. The Indian currency had found respite on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India delivered a larger-than-expected rate cut while the signalling limited room for more reductions. The policy surprise lifted domestic equities and lent support to the rupee. "The opening today is probably just a retracement of Friday's move," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "With the U.S. jobs data broadly positive for the dollar, the rupee is simply coming back under pressure." The trader is betting on a 85.60-86.00 range for the week with bias more-or-less neutral. US JOBS SURPRISE Employers added 139,000 jobs last month, above estimates for an increase of 130,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% in May against a rise of 0.3%. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations were scaled back post the data, Morgan Stanley said in its daily commentary. The market-implied rate for the December Fed meeting was re-priced 9 basis points higher, implying just 42 bps of rate cuts through 2025, it said, adding that the probability of a rate cut in July fell to 12% from 25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed nearly twelve bps on Friday and the dollar index rose 0.5%. The key U.S. jobs report followed a string of mostly weak data points that had raised concerns about the economic outlook. With that risk now tempered to an extent, attention turns to the pivotal U.S.-China trade talks scheduled to take place in London later in the day. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.84; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.75 paise ** Dollar index at 98.99 ** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $66.4 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.49% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $5.8 million worth of Indian shares on Jun. 5 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $9.3 million worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 5 Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee weakness set to linger in lead up to RBI verdict, US jobs data
MUMBAI, June 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee's downward bias looks set to persist at Friday's open, with traders awaiting the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision and the U.S. jobs report due later in the day. The RBI outcome is expected to provide cues on the domestic rate outlook, while the latter could shape expectations for U.S. interest rates. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.86-85.90 range, versus 85.79 in the previous session. The rupee inched up 0.1% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, finding support at the 86 level. While the rupee found slight relief on Thursday, the "overall direction of travel" remains on the downside, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "With the RBI policy due shortly, it should be quiet after the opening move higher (on dollar/rupee)," he said. The trader expects the dollar/rupee to be supported at 85.60-85.70 and pegs resistance at 86-86.10, reckoning that the range will hold up after the two catalysts. The RBI is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its third straight reduction amid a backdrop of benign inflation. India's largest lender by assets, State Bank of India, is more dovish and is calling for a 50 bps rate cut. A 50-bps "will not be received well" by the rupee and will lead to a sizeable up move on the dollar/rupee at least initially, the currency trader said. Inflation forecast revision and comments by the RBI head will be watched for cues on what comes next for interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, due later in the day, will attract attention amid signs that President Donald Trump's tariffs are weighing on the economy. Investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could increase expectations for further cuts, putting additional pressure on the already struggling dollar. "The US labour market is so essential in underpinning market confidence that we must be prepared and reactive if we were to see an outlier outcome," Chris Weston, head research at broker Pepperstone, said. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.98; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.5 paisa ** Dollar index at 98.81 ** Brent crude futures down 0.2% at $65.2 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.40% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $186.8mln worth of Indian shares on June 4 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $130.7mln worth of Indian bonds on June 4
Reuters
5 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
September Fed rate cut bets undermine dollar, handing rupee a breather
MUMBAI, June 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to open slightly higher on Thursday, aided by a decline in the U.S. dollar after weaker-than-expected private payrolls and services data spurred concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and fuelled hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve stance. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated a open in the 85.82-85.84 range, versus 85.90 in the previous session. The Indian currency has logged daily losses in six of the past seven sessions, and on Wednesday it slipped past the 86 level. "The rupee should find relief from its downtrend," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. Whether that opening move has any follow through or holds is doubtful, he said. The 85.70–85.75 zone will now act a support for the dollar/rupee pair, while resistance is in the 86.00–86.10 region, he added. The current bias, he noted, favours a break past 86.00–86.10 rather than a sustained move dip below 85.70–85.75. The dollar dropped against its major peers on Wednesday and the currency was down versus Asian currencies on Thursday after two disappointing sets of data raised the odds of the Fed cutting rates at the September meeting. The probability of Fed rate reduction this month remains low. The private survey showed the increase in U.S. private payrolls was well short of estimates. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report on the U.S. services sector unexpectedly showed a contraction. The ISM's measure of prices paid for services inputs rose to 68.7, the highest level since November 2022, from 65.1 in April. Concerns around the U.S. economic outlook mounted after the data, pushing U.S. yields and the dollar lower, Morgan Stanley said in its daily commentary. Private payroll has been slowing since the fourth quarter of 2024, signalling softening in the labour market and the ISM services data signals stagflation concerns, it added. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.98; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.75 paise ** Dollar index at 98.86 ** Brent crude futures down 0.2% at $64.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.37%, dropped 10 basis points on Wednesday ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $385.6 million worth of Indian shares on June 3 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $15 million worth of Indian bonds on June 3
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Rupee set to extend rally, riding momentum in Asia FX
By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is poised to kick off the week on a positive note, extending Friday's rally, buoyed by a strength in Asian currencies which included the Chinese yuan's surge to a seven-month high. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open in the 84.98-85.02 range per U.S. dollar on Monday, from its Friday close of 85.2125. The currency had surged 0.92% on Friday, its best single-day performance in over two years. Friday marked an unexpected turnaround in the rupee's performance. Until then, the Indian currency had largely missed out on the rally enjoyed by its Asian peers. "Difficult to pinpoint what exactly changed on Friday. In hindsight, it may have been the lack of dollar payments that had been plaguing the rupee, the relentless up move in Asia and finally the collective wisdom that a short (on dollar/rupee) offers value, " a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. However, despite Friday's rally, the rupee remains an underperformer among Asian FX this month. While the rupee is down 0.8% in May, the Korean won, Thai baht, and Indonesian rupiah have climbed between 2.5% and 5.5%. Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese yuan has strengthened 1.5% to 7.1650 against the dollar. BROAD LOSSES ON DOLLAR The dollar weakened against its major peers and Asian currencies on Monday, with the dollar index (=USD) slipping 0.3% to 98.76 — not far from its year-to-date low. Expectations of FX revaluation have supported Asian currencies, while U.S. fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday backed off his threat to speed up 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union, agreeing to extend his deadline for trade talks until July 9. The rapid de-escalation — just two days after the initial threat — underscores the unpredictability and volatility of U.S. trade policy. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.14; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.5 paisa ** Dollar index down at 98.72 ** Brent crude futures up 0.1% at $64.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.51% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $634.6 million worth of Indian shares on May 22 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $53.4 million worth of Indian bonds on May 22
