07-07-2025
Is the Dollar Resting, or Nailed to Its Perch?
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John Cleese's dead parrot famously wouldn't voom if you put 4,000 volts through it. Similarly, the dollar at present won't voom, even with a jolt of startlingly positive economic data. The question for the second half of this year is whether it's merely resting, or sticking to its perch only because it has been nailed there (by the exorbitant privilege which comes with being the world's reserve currency). The trend is startlingly negative, with the DXY dollar index now further below its own 200-day moving average than at any time in 20 years:
