Latest news with #demographers
Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Climate Resiliency Drawing New Buyers To Traverse City
Peek colors in downtown Traverse City, Michigan, just one of the attractive qualities of the ... More climate-resilient Northern Michigan metro. We're going to hear a lot more about climate-resilient cities in the years ahead. Today, many are only just becoming familiar with the term. But demographers and developers who know Traverse City, Mich. are among those most conversant with the concept. Each year, the northern Michigan city at the southern tip of Grand Traverse Bay and the Leelanau Peninsula sees greater numbers of incoming climate refugees from the West Coast and Arizona. Home buyers are citing climate change as a main driver convincing them to acquire their primary or secondary homes in or near Traverse City. As well, the city and its surrounding four-county metropolitan area – home to more than 150,000 residents according to the 2020 U.S. Census -- have a variety of additional attributes to recommend them, from great beaches to water sports, festivals, parks and recreation, a performing arts center, an increasingly vibrant dining scene and not least warm, mild summers that drive its viticulture and cherry-growing industries. Choice destination These qualities have not been lost on developers like Freshwater Development founder Andrew McCarthy, a force behind the development of a number of New York City towers before returning to his home state to develop in Traverse City. 'We are focused on bringing premier luxury real estate to Traverse City's climate-resilient market,' he says. 'Traverse City has emerged as a destination of choice for both full-time residents and second-home investors, drawn by its natural beauty, active outdoor lifestyle and ease of access, with direct flights from over 20 major U.S. markets.' The company is wrapping work on a pair of Traverse City projects, one offering the only full-floor condos in the city with private elevators, garages and rooftop terraces, the other a trio of waterfront brownstone residences with individual boat slips. Agricultural happenings Michigan's West Coast takes a back seat only to California when it comes to fresh fruit and biodiversity. Vegetable and fruit farms and wineries pepper the countryside around Traverse City. The vibrancy of the growing area attracted real estate professional Turner Booth, managing partner at Cochran Booth & Company, who regularly visited Northern Michigan as a youth and spent a decade in Manhattan real estate before relocating to the region. The firm's flagship property, The Mill Glen Arbor, is an inn, restaurant, cafe and bakery serving fresh-baked breads and pastries using milled-on-site flours. The company's hospitality orientation takes a nod from New York City and Chicago and other refined urban markets, and is built on the abundance of local growers, Booth has said. As the Traverse City metro's culinary scene matures, it is attracting well-deserved attention. That spotlight in turn is luring young chefs from Michelin-starred restaurants, who are relocating to Northern Michigan to launch their own dining establishments. Booth is striving to help ensure a sustainable workforce within the region. 'Good housing options for employees is critical and dovetails nicely with our hospitality operations,' he says. 'A big part of our focus is high-quality housing for the workforce. Addressing hospitality in a silo, without the local workforce simply doesn't make sense.' Airport expansion The city's Cherry Capital Airport was designed with the idea only so many incoming flights would be landing. In the early 2000s, when the newest terminal opened, the expectation was for 250,000 to 300,000 annual passengers traversing the terminal. Last year passenger numbers reached 770,000, an increase of nearly 70,000 from the year before. That's necessitated a more than 68,000-square-foot expansion now underway. As the shoulder season continues to be extended in Northern Michigan, and climate resiliency becomes more of a household word, who's to say there won't be additional expansions necessary once people discover the charms of Traverse City?
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
Pronatalism – the belief that low birth rates are a problem that must be reversed – is having a moment in the U.S. As birth rates decline in the U.S. and throughout the world, voices from Silicon Valley to the White House are raising concerns about what they say could be the calamitous effects of steep population decline on the economy. The Trump administration has said it is seeking ideas on how to encourage Americans to have more children as the U.S. experiences its lowest total fertility rate in history, down about 25% since 2007. As demographers who study fertility, family behaviors and childbearing intentions, we can say with certainty that population decline is not imminent, inevitable or necessarily catastrophic. The population collapse narrative hinges on three key misunderstandings. First, it misrepresents what standard fertility measures tell us about childbearing and makes unrealistic assumptions that fertility rates will follow predictable patterns far into the future. Second, it overstates the impact of low birth rates on future population growth and size. Third, it ignores the role of economic policies and labor market shifts in assessing the impacts of low birth rates. Fertility fluctuations Demographers generally gauge births in a population with a measure called the total fertility rate. The total fertility rate for a given year is an estimate of the average number of children that women would have in their lifetime if they experienced current birth rates throughout their childbearing years. Fertility rates are not fixed – in fact, they have changed considerably over the past century. In the U.S., the total fertility rate rose from about 2 births per woman in the 1930s to a high of 3.7 births per woman around 1960. The rate then dipped below 2 births per woman in the late 1970s and 1980s before returning to 2 births in the 1990s and early 2000s. Since the Great Recession that lasted from late 2007 until mid-2009, the U.S. total fertility rate has declined almost every year, with the exception of very small post-COVID-19 pandemic increases in 2021 and 2022. In 2024, it hit a record low, falling to 1.6. This drop is primarily driven by declines in births to people in their teens and early 20s – births that are often unintended. But while the total fertility rate offers a snapshot of the fertility landscape, it is not a perfect indicator of how many children a woman will eventually have if fertility patterns are in flux – for example, if people are delaying having children. Picture a 20-year-old woman today, in 2025. The total fertility rate assumes she will have the same birth rate as today's 40-year-olds when she reaches 40. That's not likely to be the case, because birth rates 20 years from now for 40-year-olds will almost certainly be higher than they are today, as more births occur at older ages and more people are able to overcome infertility through medically assisted reproduction. A more nuanced picture of childbearing These problems with the total fertility rate are why demographers also measure how many total births women have had by the end of their reproductive years. In contrast to the total fertility rate, the average number of children ever born to women ages 40 to 44 has remained fairly stable over time, hovering around two. Americans continue to express favorable views toward childbearing. Ideal family size remains at two or more children, and 9 in 10 adults either have, or would like to have, children. However, many Americans are unable to reach their childbearing goals. This seems to be related to the high cost of raising children and growing uncertainty about the future. In other words, it doesn't seem to be the case that birth rates are low because people are uninterested in having children; rather, it's because they don't feel it's feasible for them to become parents or to have as many children as they would like. The challenge of predicting future population size Standard demographic projections do not support the idea that population size is set to shrink dramatically. One billion people lived on Earth 250 years ago. Today there are over 8 billion, and by 2100 the United Nations predicts there will be over 10 billion. That's 2 billion more, not fewer, people in the foreseeable future. Admittedly, that projection is plus or minus 4 billion. But this range highlights another key point: Population projections get more uncertain the further into the future they extend. Predicting the population level five years from now is far more reliable than 50 years from now – and beyond 100 years, forget about it. Most population scientists avoid making such long-term projections, for the simple reason that they are usually wrong. That's because fertility and mortality rates change over time in unpredictable ways. The U.S. population size is also not declining. Currently, despite fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, there are still more births than deaths. The U.S. population is expected to grow by 22.6 million by 2050 and by 27.5 million by 2100, with immigration playing an important role. Will low fertility cause an economic crisis? A common rationale for concern about low fertility is that it leads to a host of economic and labor market problems. Specifically, pronatalists argue that there will be too few workers to sustain the economy and too many older people for those workers to support. However, that is not necessarily true – and even if it were, increasing birth rates wouldn't fix the problem. As fertility rates fall, the age structure of the population shifts. But a higher proportion of older adults does not necessarily mean the proportion of workers to nonworkers falls. For one thing, the proportion of children under age 18 in the population also declines, so the number of working-age adults – usually defined as ages 18 to 64 – often changes relatively little. And as older adults stay healthier and more active, a growing number of them are contributing to the economy. Labor force participation among Americans ages 65 to 74 increased from 21.4% in 2003 to 26.9% in 2023 — and is expected to increase to 30.4% by 2033. Modest changes in the average age of retirement or in how Social Security is funded would further reduce strains on support programs for older adults. What's more, pronatalists' core argument that a higher birth rate would increase the size of the labor force overlooks some short-term consequences. More babies means more dependents, at least until those children become old enough to enter the labor force. Children not only require expensive services such as education, but also reduce labor force participation, particularly for women. As fertility rates have fallen, women's labor force participation rates have risen dramatically – from 34% in 1950 to 58% in 2024. Pronatalist policies that discourage women's employment are at odds with concerns about a diminishing number of workers. Research shows that economic policies and labor market conditions, not demographic age structures, play the most important role in determining economic growth in advanced economies. And with rapidly changing technologies like automation and artificial intelligence, it is unclear what demand there will be for workers in the future. Moreover, immigration is a powerful – and immediate – tool for addressing labor market needs and concerns over the proportion of workers. Overall, there's no evidence for Elon Musk's assertion that 'humanity is dying.' While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, in our view the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated. Strong investments in education and sensible economic policies can help countries successfully adapt to a new demographic reality. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Leslie Root, University of Colorado Boulder; Karen Benjamin Guzzo, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Shelley Clark, McGill University Read more: Taxing bachelors and proposing marriage lotteries – how superpowers addressed declining birthrates in the past The problem with pronatalism: Pushing baby booms to boost economic growth amounts to a Ponzi scheme Pronatalism is the latest Silicon Valley trend. What is it – and why is it disturbing? Leslie Root receives funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Development (NICHD) for work on fertility rates. Karen Benjamin Guzzo has received funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development in the United States. Shelley Clark receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Solve the daily Crossword
Russia Today
03-07-2025
- Business
- Russia Today
South Korea faces 85% population crash by 2125
South Korea's population could decrease 85% over the next century if current demographic trends persist, according to a new study. The research highlights the nation's ongoing struggle with low birth rates and an aging population. The report, released on Wednesday by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, showed that even under the most optimistic scenario, the population is projected to fall to 15.73 million, which is less than one-third of its present size. The median estimate puts the population in 2125 at 11.15 million. In the worst-case scenario outlined by the institute, South Korea's population could decline to 7.53 million by 2125, a steep drop from its current 51.68 million. That number would be lower than the capital Seoul's current population of more than 9.3 million. The institute used the internationally recognized cohort-component method to project future population changes based on fertility, mortality and migration trends. The report highlights the unusually fast rate of South Korea's demographic decline. The decline is being driven not only by low birth rates but also by a compounding effect: as each generation becomes smaller, the number of potential parents also drops, speeding up the overall population decrease. In 75 years, the worst-case projection shows that for every 100 people of working age (between 15 and 64) there could be 140 seniors aged 65 or older. At present, 100 working-age people support about 30 seniors, signaling that South Korea is heading toward an 'inverted pyramid' society, where the number of elderly dependents greatly exceeds those in the workforce. The findings also showed that younger generations now place more importance on 'money' and 'housing' than 'love' when talking about marriage. Financial pressure was the most common concern raised in discussions about having children. The report concluded that economic factors currently play a bigger role than personal choice in decisions about marriage and parenthood. The projections highlight the demographic pressure South Korea faces as it deals with one of the world's lowest birth rates and fastest-aging populations. As of 2024, the country's total fertility rate has risen just 0.75, and remains far below the replacement level of 2.1.
Yahoo
27-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
AI could ‘devastate' Earth's population down to the size of the UK by 2300, expert warns: ‘People really don't have a clue'
Are we facing tech-stinction? An Oklahoma tech expert predicted that artificial intelligence will become so omnipresent on the planet that Earth — with a current population of about 8 billion — will have just 100 million people left by the year 2300. 'It's going to be devastating for society and world society,' Subhash Kak, who teaches computer science at Oklahoma State University in Stillwater, told the Sun. 'I think people really don't have a clue.' However, the 'Age of Artificial Intelligence' author doesn't think this dystopian future will come about via nuclear war or other 'Terminator'-evoking scenarios, but rather through replacing our jobs. 'Computers or robots will never be conscious, but they will be doing literally all that we do because most of what we do in our lives can be replaced,' said Kak. Currently, techsperts fear that AI is rendering humanity obsolete in every sector, from law to academia and even romance. As a result, they suggest, birth rates will plunge as people will be hesitant to have kids who are destined to be unemployed, especially given the exorbitant costs of rearing children. Without people making babies, the global population will suffer an apocalyptic blow, Kak theorized. 'There are demographers who are suggesting that as a consequence, the world population will collapse, and it could go down to as low as just 100 million people on the entire planet Earth in 2300 or 2380,' he warned of the shocking drop. With only that many people left on the planet — which Kak noted was just over the population of the UK — great metropolises such as London and New York will quickly turn into ghost towns, according to the professor. 'I have all the data in the book. This is not just my personal opinion,' said the computer scientist, who claims this population shrinkflation is happening before our eyes. 'People have stopped having babies. Europe, China, Japan, and the most rapid fall in population right now is taking place in Korea,' Kak declared. 'Now, I'm not saying that these trends will continue, but it's very hard to reverse them because a lot of people have children for a variety of reasons.' He added, 'One is, of course, social. In the back of your mind, you have a sense of what the future is going to be like.' Kak invoked the warnings of SpaceX's Elon Musk, who has been quite vocal about plummeting birth rates and population decline and has used it as a rationale for colonizing Mars. 'That's why Musk is saying maybe humans should go to space, maybe build colonies elsewhere, so that should such a tragedy hit Earth, then it could be reseeded,' said Kak. And while he's not sure whether humanity will go extinct, he said that 'what is absolutely certain is that there is a population collapse occurring right before our eyes.'
Malay Mail
17-06-2025
- Business
- Malay Mail
Want to file for divorce in China? Booking agents are now your ticket to a quick split
Job insecurity and youth unemployment strain family finances Financial stress drives up divorce rates in China Divorce rates higher in poorer regions, lower in affluent areas Demographers warn more divorces mean fewer child births SINGAPORE, June 17 — Chinese medical office worker Qin Meng has found a lucrative side-hustle: she wakes up before midnight, fills in her clients' divorce certificate applications on a government website, then hits the confirm button exactly at the top of the hour. Miss it by seconds and the daily slots are 'gone in the blink of an eye,' says the 30-year-old, who charges 400 yuan (RM236.40) for her service, bringing relief to couples who have sometimes spent six months trying for a slot. Demographers say the emergence of impromptu agents like Qin, who advertise on Chinese social media, is another sign of how the slowing economy is piling financial stress on married couples and contributing to the breakdown of relationships. The 2024 divorce rate has yet to be announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, but Yi Fuxian, a Chinese demographer and senior scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison, expects it to hit 2.6 per 1,000 people, against a low of 2.0 during the Covid-19 pandemic. This compares with the most recent rates of 1.5 in Japan and 1.8 in South Korea. 'Poverty destroys marriage,' said Yi, warning divorce numbers were inversely correlated with birth rates and could worsen the country's demographic crisis. 'China's economic downturn in recent years and the rising youth unemployment rate have reduced the economic capacity of families, exacerbated family conflicts, and thereby increased the divorce rate.' While the economy is expanding at about 5 per cent a year, Chinese households have been saving more because of concerns about job security and the impact of a prolonged property crisis. Much of the economic growth has relied on export competitiveness, but Chinese firms, hit by US tariffs, have cut jobs or lowered pay to reduce costs, while millions of fresh university graduates are struggling to find work. The rising financial pressure was thrust into the spotlight last year after a driver rammed his car into a crowd killing 35 people in what was the country's deadliest attack in recent history. The court found that at the time of his offence, the driver was angry with his divorce settlement. He was sentenced to death. Soon after, the bi-monthly Communist Party magazine Qiushi re-published a 2016 speech by President Xi Jinping that argued 'harmonious families lead to a stable society'. Financial strain In a further sign that the rebound in divorces is driven by financial strain, demographers point at data showing lower divorce rates in affluent coastal areas and higher ones in poorer inner and northern regions. Zhou Minghui booked her divorce appointment herself on the fifth attempt, after weeks of worry that her ex-husband might change his mind about their separation. Zhou said her motivation for divorce was what she described as her ex's 'reckless financial investments'. He had lost nearly 4 million yuan in the stock market in the space of three years, forcing the couple to sell their home, she said. Even then they were only able to repay just over half of the debt he had taken to buy the shares. 'When the economy is in a downturn, people shouldn't be so eager to invest or consume,' said 38-year-old Zhou, who works in the education industry in the southern city of Shenzhen. The Covid-era drop in divorce appears increasingly like an anomaly. Demographers say it was the result not only of the shutdown of non-essential public services, but also by the 2021 introduction of a 30-day mandatory cool-off period for couples seeking amicable divorce outside the courts. Couples need to get on the Civil Affairs Department's website twice – before and after that month-long breather – to book appointments to register their divorce. But the demand now far exceeds the available daily slots. The agents, people like Qin, have figured this out and advertise their services for anything from 50 yuan to 999 yuan. Qin has earned 5,000 yuan, nearly half her monthly salary from her day job, since she started the side gig 'for fun' in March. She receives multiple daily enquiries and expects to earn much more. 'The economy is not great, so there's more pressure at work and more conflicts in marriage,' Qin said. 'Divorce rates will keep rising.' — Reuters
