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Al Jazeera
10-07-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
The South Caucasus is slipping from Russia's grasp
The recent flare-up between Russia and Azerbaijan is far more than a diplomatic spat: It marks a potential turning point in the balance of power in the South Caucasus. On June 27, Russian special forces conducted a violent raid on ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, an industrial city in Russia's Ural region. About 50 people were detained, several were reportedly injured, and two Azerbaijani brothers – Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov – died in custody under suspicious circumstances. Autopsies revealed blunt-force trauma and broken ribs, contradicting Russian claims that the men died of heart failure. Survivors reported beatings, electrocution, and degrading treatment. Far from being seen as a routine law enforcement action, the operation has been widely interpreted in Baku as a politically motivated act of intimidation – prompting sharp condemnation from Azerbaijani officials and a wave of anger from the public. On July 1, Azerbaijan's ambassador to Russia, Rahman Mustafayev, delivered a formal protest to Moscow, denouncing what he described as the unlawful killing and mistreatment of Azerbaijani citizens, including dual nationals. This diplomatic fallout unfolded just as Baku launched its own high-profile crackdown on organised crime – one that notably included the arrest of several Russian nationals, some reportedly linked to Kremlin-funded media outlets and others accused of cyberfraud and drug trafficking. Among those detained were local staff of Sputnik Azerbaijan, the state-run Russian news agency. While the two episodes are officially unrelated, the timing suggests Azerbaijan is signalling a rejection of external coercion and asserting its sovereignty with new intensity. These developments reflect a deeper geopolitical shift. Russia's traditional levers of influence in the post-Soviet space – military alliances such as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), energy dependency, and soft power through Russian-language media – are weakening. Strained by the war in Ukraine and international sanctions, the Kremlin has increasingly turned to diaspora policing, symbolic shows of strength, and nationalist rhetoric to maintain control. The Yekaterinburg raid appears to fit this pattern: A demonstration of power aimed at a former Soviet republic now carving out a more independent path. Azerbaijan's traditionally balanced foreign policy is now entering a more assertive phase. For years, Baku carefully navigated its relations with Russia, the West, and Turkiye. But the events of the past week have marked a clear shift: Azerbaijan is adopting a firmer stance against Kremlin pressure while deepening its strategic alignment with Ankara. This evolving alliance is not only strengthening bilateral ties but fostering broader regional integration through organisations such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The implications extend well beyond Azerbaijan. Moscow's deteriorating relationship with Baku may trigger a wider realignment across Central Asia. Kazakhstan has already taken steps to distance itself from Russian influence, while Armenia, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has publicly questioned the reliability of Russian security guarantees. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are simultaneously strengthening ties with Turkiye and China. In this context, Azerbaijan's defiance signals not an isolated dispute, but a broader erosion of Moscow's soft power across the former Soviet sphere. For the Kremlin, traditional diplomatic tools are proving increasingly ineffective. In Azerbaijan, public outrage over the deaths in Yekaterinburg is helping shape foreign policy in ways that go beyond formal statecraft. Moscow now faces the real prospect of Baku firmly embedding itself in the Turkish geopolitical orbit – supporting projects such as the Zangezur corridor, and reinforcing a trans-Caspian Turkic axis stretching from Anatolia to Central Asia. This vision stands in stark contrast to the Kremlin's fading Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) project, which now looks more like a symbolic construct than a meaningful alliance. Meanwhile, the media landscape has become another battleground. Russian state outlets – particularly firebrand figures like Vladimir Solovyov – have adopted openly anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, stoking ethnic and religious tensions. These attacks blur the line between journalism and state propaganda, further inflaming bilateral tensions and undermining traditional diplomatic protocols. Yet, amid the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan faces a rare strategic opportunity. If managed wisely, Baku can leverage this moment to strengthen its leadership role within the Turkic world and reset its relationship with Russia on more equal terms. In the years ahead, Azerbaijan has the potential to emerge not just as a key energy hub, but as a central geopolitical actor in the South Caucasus and beyond. The Yekaterinburg raid is not simply a matter of domestic policing. It is a symptom of the accelerating breakdown of Moscow's grip over its 'near abroad'. What happens next – whether Russia adapts to the changing dynamics or attempts to reassert control through more coercive means – will shape the next chapter of Eurasian geopolitics. One thing is already clear: The regional balance of power is shifting, and Azerbaijan stands squarely at the centre of that transformation. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
Al Arabiya
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
Cambodia Accuses Thailand of Escalating Tensions With New Land Crossing Restrictions
Cambodia's government on Tuesday accused Thailand of escalating border tensions by imposing new restrictions that have blocked almost all land crossings, especially for tourists heading into Cambodia. Relations between the neighbors have deteriorated following an armed confrontation on May 28 in which one Cambodian soldier was killed in a relatively small contested territory along their border. While the two sides have agreed to de-escalate their dispute, they have continued to implement or threaten measures that have kept tensions high. The Thai army on Monday imposed heightened restrictions at border checkpoints with Cambodia following an order from Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to allow only students, medical patients, and others with essential needs to enter or leave Thailand. That also makes it impossible for thousands of tourists to cross between the two countries. Pen Bona, a spokesperson of the Cambodian government, said Tuesday that Cambodia has committed to resolve the conflict through diplomatic channels, but tensions have soared because of Thailand's actions. 'The Cambodian government has already stated that we will not initiate any border closure and that it will also lift restrictions if Thailand does so first,' he said. Cambodia has boycotted some Thai internet services, banned Thai fruits and vegetables, and blocked electricity and fuel supplies from Thailand in response to the border dispute. Prior to the boycott, Cambodia imported 30 percent of its gasoline and other fuel from Thailand. Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet on Monday visited troops at the border and a temporary shelter for thousands of civilians who were evacuated from the area. He said that while Cambodia doesn't want war, 'we cannot stand by and let us be abused.' In addition to border restrictions, Paetongtarn also announced measures targeting online scam operations in Cambodia. They include blocking exports that could facilitate such activities in Cambodia and coordination with other countries and international agencies to crack down on cybercrime based in Southeast Asia. Pen Bona said that while he recognized that Cambodia is being exploited by online scammers, many such operations are also based in Thailand. 'This is a very shameful thing that is happening in Thailand, but they are trying to divert the story from Thailand to Cambodia,' he said. Thailand earlier this year implemented measures to crack down on online scam operations in neighboring Myanmar, severing electricity, internet, and gas supplies to border towns where the syndicates were based.
