Latest news with #dissent
Yahoo
18 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How stock-market investors should trade what could be a historic Fed dissent on Wednesday
The conclusion of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday could produce a historic dissent. If so, investors should be prepared to do, well, nothing, according to one Wall Street veteran. The Fed is seen as virtually certain to leave interest rates unchanged despite intense pressure from President Donald Trump and his allies on Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a cut. But a pair of Fed governors — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — are seen as potentially voting against holding rates steady and in favor of easing. And although they would be easily outvoted, it has been more than five years since a rate decision saw more than one dissent, according to the Wall Street Journal. And would be the first time since 1993 that two governors who are permanent members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee have dissented from a rate decision. Social Security wants to make a change that would cause 3.4 million more people to have to visit its field offices Why is Meta's stock soaring after earnings? It's about far more than the numbers. Josh Hawley's $600 rebates bill shows why Republicans win Under normal circumstances, a pair of dissents in favor of a rate cut would be taken as a sign the Fed is taking a dovish turn, Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a Tuesday note. It would be signal that policymakers are moving in favor of easing, making a reduction at the next meeting a more likely event. 'However, these are not normal times,' Essaye wrote. Dissents by either Waller or Bowman would largely be ignored by the market because they would be viewed as 'political moves,' he said. Specifically, both Waller and Bowman are viewed as jockeying to succeed Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May, meaning any votes to cut would be seen as designed to curry favor with the president, he said. See: Powell's fate overshadows must-see meeting amid Trump pressure, Fed dissent and a sky-high stock market Whether or not that's the real motivation for any such vote doesn't matter to investors, because 'it's how the market views it,' Essaye said. 'Point being, don't believe any reporting that implies the dissents are a dovish surprise or make a September rate cut more likely,' he said. 'It won't be a surprise and they won't make a September cut more likely.' Investors might also note that the Fed under Powell has so far been remarkably united. In a post on X, Steve Donze of Pictet Asset Management Japan said data shows the FOMC under Powell has been the most unified on record. Stocks have staged a strong summer rally but finished with modest losses Tuesday. The S&P 500 SPX snapped a streak of six straight record closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA continues to trade not far below its record from December. Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, fell sharply Tuesday as investors prepared for the Fed meeting and a raft of key data, including the July jobs report, due on Friday. The yield on the 10-year note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dropped 8.9 basis points to 4.329%. Regardless of whether the meeting produces dissents, the debate between doves and hawks on the rate-setting committee is likely to be robust, Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry, strategists at Macquarie, said in a note. 'And as we keep saying, the 'doves' do have a point about the perceived pockets of weakness in the U.S. economy which is also why they may dissent,' they wrote. 'There is still a significant probability of a cut in September, although December feels no less likely.' Fed-funds futures traders have priced in a better-than-60% probability of a September rate cut, while the probability of at least two cuts by the Fed's December meeting stands at around 65%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Comcast could see its heaviest internet-subscriber losses ever. Then what? Why the man behind 'The Hater's Guide to the AI Bubble' thinks Wall Street's hottest trade will go bust Why Marvell's beaten-down stock is now seeing a big gain Sign in to access your portfolio
CNN
a day ago
- Business
- CNN
Video: Why there's so much drama around this Fed meeting
The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates have almost always been unanimous. But today's meeting could reveal the most dissent inside the central bank since 1993, as President Trump ramps up the pressure to cut rates. CNN's Matt Egan explains.
CNN
a day ago
- Business
- CNN
Video: Why there's so much drama around this Fed meeting
The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates have almost always been unanimous. But today's meeting could reveal the most dissent inside the central bank since 1993, as President Trump ramps up the pressure to cut rates. CNN's Matt Egan explains.
Al Jazeera
2 days ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Myanmar military government sets long prison terms for election protests
Myanmar's military government has imposed harsh new penalties for protesting its planned election, with critics potentially facing years in prison for dissent. The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar reported that the new law took effect on Tuesday, months before elections expected at the end of this year. The legislation bans 'any speech, organising, inciting, protesting or distributing leaflets in order to destroy a part of the electoral process' – which opposition groups and international monitors have slammed as a ploy to shore up military rule. Those convicted of violating the law face three to seven years in prison, with group offences punishable by five to 10 years. The law also criminalises damaging ballot papers or polling stations, and intimidating or harming voters, candidates or election workers – with sentences of up to 20 years. If anyone is killed during an attempt to disrupt the election, 'everyone involved in the crime faces the death penalty,' the law says. Myanmar's military government seized power in a 2021 coup that prompted a many-sided civil war, and swaths of the country remain outside the military's control. Some state census workers deployed last year to gather data before the poll faced resistance and security threats. Data could not be collected from an estimated 19 million of the country's 51 million people, provisional results said, in part because of 'significant security constraints'. Analysts have predicted that the myriad of anti-coup fighter groups and ethnic armed groups which the military is battling may stage offensives in the run-up to the vote as a sign of their opposition. A United Nations expert called on the international community last month to reject the election plan as 'a fraud'. Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, said the military is 'trying to create this mirage of an election exercise that will create a legitimate civilian government'.
Japan Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
At LDP's post-election meeting, calls intensify for Ishiba's resignation
Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba faced a rising tide of dissent and a chorus of calls to resign Monday in the first showdown between the party's lawmakers and its executives following the loss of its Upper House majority. 'I'd like him to say he is leaving as soon as possible, though it doesn't need to be now,' Lower House lawmaker Hiroyuki Nakamura told reporters as he left the party headquarters 45 minutes into the meeting. 'Party executives bear the responsibility of failing to improve the party's standing,' Upper House member Yohei Wakabayashi said, adding that 80% of lawmakers who spoke in the meeting asked Ishiba to resign.
