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Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Pause in dollar rally offers relief to rupee after 86 breach
MUMBAI, July 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to open higher on Friday, tracking a broader recovery in Asian peers and supported by a pause in the U.S. dollar index's near-term uptrend. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 86.00-86.02 range versus 86.0750 on Thursday, marking the rupee's first sub-86 finish in nearly a month. "Asia will help (the rupee) at the open. However, I'd fade any downside (on USD/INR)," a currency trader at a bank said. "Positioning and risk-reward favour upside, and this looks (like a) buy-on-dips market right now." The dollar index fell about 0.2% in Asia to 98.40, helping most Asian currencies climb higher. The dollar index had rallied on Thursday, approaching the 99 mark, after robust U.S. data spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to resume rate cuts. Upbeat U.S. retail sales in June pointed to a pickup in economic activity, while job claims fell to a three-month low, reinforcing signs of steady labour market strength. U.S. economic data released on Thursday "continues to signal resilience," MUFG Bank said, while noting the muted reaction in U.S. Treasury yields. Markets were largely unchanged about the Fed outlook, with no major shift in pricing for a September rate cut or the cumulative rate cuts expected in 2025. Despite the dip in the dollar index on Friday, the gauge is up 0.6% this week after last week's near 1% rally. Markets continue to hold net short positions on the U.S. dollar, and an unwinding of those short dollar positions could provide support for the U.S. currency, MUFG Bank noted. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.08; onshore one-month forward premium at 10 paise ** Dollar index down at 98.41 ** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $69.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.44 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $121.3 million worth of Indian shares on July 16 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $3.5 million worth of Indian bonds on July 16
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Rallies to 3-week High
The dollar index (DXY00) is up +0.22% today. The dollar index is seeing some technical buying as it extends its two-week rally to post a 3-week high. Bullish factors for the dollar include safe-haven demand amid weakness in stocks and a stronger-than-expected US industrial production report. Bearish factors today include a -4 bp decline in the 10-year T-note yield and today's soft PPI report. Today's June PPI report was favorable, as both the month-over-month and year-over-year figures were better than expected, suggesting that tariff inflation has not yet hit the producer level. The PPI report sparked some inflation optimism after Tuesday's mixed CPI report. Dollar Rallies on Higher T-note Yields Dollar Rallies on Higher T-note Yields Gold and Silver Are Grinding Sideways. Here's What Could Change That, and When It Might Happen. Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Specifically, the June final-demand PPI was unchanged m/m and +2.3% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. The June core PPI report of unchanged m/m and +2.6% y/y was weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y. The year-over-year figures of +2.3% (nominal) and +2.6% y/y (core) were down from the revised May figures of +2.7% and +3.2%, respectively. Today's June US industrial production report of +0.3% m/m was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.1%, and May was revised higher to unchanged from -0.2%. The June US manufacturing production report of +0.1% m/m was slightly stronger than expectations of unchanged. The July New York Fed services business activity index rose to -9.3 from -13.2 in June. The Fed's July Beige Book report will be released later today. Expectations for Fed policy were little changed after today's economic reports. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 59% at the following meeting on Sep 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.28% due to strength in the dollar. The euro is receiving some underlying support from the May Eurozone trade surplus report, which showed a surplus of 16.2 billion euros. This was wider than market expectations of 14.0 billion euros and up from April's revised 15.1 billion euros. Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is little changed. The yen is seeing some downward pressure from the stronger dollar. However, the yen has some support from interest rate differentials as the 10-year JGB yield today rose +0.4 bp, while the US 10-year T-note yield is down -4.2 bp. The yen remains under pressure due to concerns about the upcoming upper house election in Japan on July 20. The promises by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party of cash handouts to voters and promises of lower taxes by the opposition have sparked concerns of fiscal deterioration, which are bearish for the yen. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -2.5 (-0.07%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.215 (-0.56%). Precious metals are trading lower on today's +0.2% rise in the dollar index. However, precious metals have underlying support from today's -4.2 bp decline in the 10-year T-note yield. Precious metals also have some underlying support from safe-haven demand as Congress loosens restrictions on stablecoins, which could boost inflation in the future due to an underlying increase in the nation's unofficial money supply and potentially cause eventual systemic problems for the Fed and the US banking system. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Gains on US Tariff Uncertainty
The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.04%. The dollar is slightly higher today due to concerns that the US trade policy of higher tariffs will boost inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, a supportive factor for the dollar. Gains in the dollar are limited as strength in stocks reduces the liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar also has support from some flight-to-safety demand after President Trump vowed to push forward with his aggressive tariff regime, stressing that he would not offer additional extensions on country-specific tariffs set to take effect on August 1. In addition, despite stating that the US was close to a trade deal with India, Mr. Trump said he would still impose a 10% tariff on India's goods for their participation in BRICS, a group of developing nations he claimed were "set up to hurt" the US. Royal Gold (RGLD) Dips After Acquisition News But Options Traders Don't Seem Worried Will it Be a Watson Wednesday? Q2 in Precious Metals- Where are they heading in Q3? Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. The markets are discounting a 7% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.05%. The euro is under modest pressure today from a stronger dollar. Also, lower German bund yields are weighing on the euro. Losses in the euro are limited by hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann, who said, "There's no reason at the moment why the ECB should cut interest rates, definitely not at the next meeting, and also for the rest of the year." Swaps are pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down by -0.15%. The yen recovered from a 2-week low today against the dollar and moved higher after the 10-year Japan JGB bond yield climbed to a 5-week high of 1.51%, which strengthened the yen's interest rate differentials. Also, lower T-note yields today are supportive of the yen. Gains in the yen are limited by weak Japanese economic news after Japan's June machine tool orders fell by the most in nine months. Also, worries about the upper house election in Japan on July 20 are negative for the yen. The promises by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party of cash handouts to voters and promises of lower taxes by the opposition have sparked concerns of fiscal deterioration, which are bearish for the yen. Japan June machine tool orders fell -0.5% y/y, the biggest decline in nine months. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -4.40 (-0.13%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.124 (-0.34%). Precious metals are slightly lower, with gold prices falling to a 1-week low. Metals are under pressure today from a stronger dollar. Also, the action by President Trump to postpone tariff hikes from July 9 to August 1 has eased trade tensions slightly and curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals. In addition, strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals. Finally, hawkish comments today from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann undercut precious metals prices when he said the ECB doesn't need to cut interest rates further. Precious metals are supported today by lower T-note yields. Also, US trade policy has led to economic uncertainty that has boosted some safe-haven demand for precious metals. In addition, central bank buying of gold is supporting prices after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchased 70,000 MT of gold bullion in June, the eighth consecutive month the PBOC has added gold to its reserves. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Slightly Higher as T-Note Yields Climb
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose slightly by +0.03%. The dollar recovered from overnight losses and climbed to a 1.5-week high due to stronger T-note yields. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high on Tuesday at 4.43%, which strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials. Weakness in the yen also benefited the dollar as the yen tumbled to a 2-week low against the dollar on Tuesday. Gains in the dollar were limited as stocks stabilized after President Trump late Monday signaled that he is open to further negotiations on tariffs. Late Monday, President Trump said he's still open to additional negotiations and that the August 1 deadline for higher tariff rates was "not 100% firm," adding, "we're not going to be unfair" and would look favorably on countries continuing to offer additional concessions. Royal Gold (RGLD) Dips After Acquisition News But Options Traders Don't Seem Worried Dollar Rises as Trade Tensions Undercut Stocks Q2 in Precious Metals- Where are they heading in Q3? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Tuesday recovered from a 1-week low and finished up by +0.17%. The euro recovered early losses and moved higher on optimism about a trade deal between the US and European Union (EU) after a Politico report said the US offered a deal to the EU that would keep the 10% baseline tariffs, with exemptions for sensitive sectors beyond August 1, while a permanent deal is worked out. The euro initially moved lower on Tuesday due to dollar strength and some weaker-than-expected German trade news. German trade news was weaker than expected after May exports fell by 1.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m. Also, May imports fell by 3.8% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of -1.7% m/m and the biggest decline in a year. Swaps are pricing in a 5% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Tuesday rose by +0.40%. The yen added to Monday's losses on Tuesday and fell to a 2-week low against the dollar. Concerns over fiscal deterioration in Japan are weighing on the yen ahead of the upper house election in Japan on July 20. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is promising cash handouts to voters while opposition lawmakers are advocating lower taxes. Higher T-note yields on Tuesday also weighed on the yen. The Japan Jun eco watchers outlook survey rose +1.1 to a 4-month high of 45.9, stronger than expectations of 45.3. August gold (GCQ25) Tuesday closed down -25.90 (-0.77%), and September silver (SIU25) closed down -0.155 (-0.42%). Precious metals were under pressure Tuesday from a stronger dollar after the dollar index climbed to a 1.5-week high. Also, higher global bond yields on Tuesday were bearish for precious metals. In addition, comments from President Trump that he is open to additional tariff negotiations eased trade tensions slightly and curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Rising inflation expectations are supportive of gold demand as an inflation hedge and are limiting losses in gold after the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 6-week high Tuesday. Also, central bank buying of gold is supporting prices after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchased 70,000 MT of gold bullion in June, the eighth consecutive month the PBOC has added gold to its reserves. Losses in silver were contained Tuesday on carryover support from a +10% surge in copper prices to an all-time high after President Trump called for a 50% tariff on US copper imports. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Rises as Trade Tensions Undercut Stocks
The dollar index (DXY00) Monday rose by +0.30% and posted a 1.5-week high. The weakness in stocks on Monday boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar extended its gains Monday when President Trump announced plans to hike tariffs on several countries, including Japan, South Korea, Laos, South Africa, Myanmar, and Malaysia, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective August 1. The higher tariffs could boost inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates, a supportive factor for the dollar. Gains in the dollar were limited on Monday after President Trump signed the reconciliation bill into law on Friday, when US markets were closed. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.4 trillion to US budget deficits over the next decade. The fiscal stimulus from the bill will be a net positive for the US economy, but the higher deficit is negative for the dollar as it increases the risk of an eventual debt crisis in the US and reduces foreign investor confidence in the US. Trade Tensions Boost the Dollar Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Monday fell by -0.48% to a 1-week low, mainly due to dollar strength. Also, weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic news weighed on the euro after Eurozone May retail sales fell more than expected. Limiting losses in the euro was the jump in the Eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index to a nearly 3.5-year high, as well as the unexpected increase in German May industrial production. The Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index rose +4.3 to a nearly 3.5-year high of 4.5, stronger than expectations of 1.0. Eurozone May retail sales fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.6% m/m and the biggest decrease in 1.75 years. German May industrial production unexpectedly rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of a -0.2% m/m decline. Swaps are pricing in a 5% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Monday rose sharply by +1.11%. The yen tumbled to a 2-week low against the dollar Monday after President Trump raised US tariffs on Japanese exports to 25% beginning August 1, which could hurt the Japanese economy. Also, the rising tariffs may prevent the BOJ from raising interest rates further. Higher T-note yields on Monday also weighed on the yen. The Japan May leading index CI rose +1.1 to 105.3, stronger than expectations of 105.2. Japan May labor cash earnings rose +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y. August gold (GCQ25) Monday closed down -0.10 (-0.01%), and September silver (SIU25) closed down -0.169 (-0.46%). Precious metals were under pressure Monday from a stronger dollar. Also, higher global bond yields on Monday weighed on precious metals. In addition, industrial metals demand concerns undercut silver prices after President Trump said that he will impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligned with the BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil, China, South Africa, and India, with no exemptions. Precious metals recovered most of their losses on Monday after stock market weakness boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, trade tensions are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump announced plans to hike tariffs on several countries, including Japan, South Korea, Laos, South Africa, Myanmar, and Malaysia, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective August 1. Fund buying of silver is supporting silver prices as silver holdings in ETFs rose to a 2.75-year high last Friday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
