Latest news with #dollarweakness
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Weak dollar reprises its role as 'carry' trade funder
MUMBAI, June 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's weakness since the start of Donald Trump's presidency has made it the preferred funding currency for popular "carry" trades, fuelling heavy flows into higher-yielding emerging market currencies. Dollar-funded carry trades in the Indonesian rupiah , Indian rupee , Brazilian real , Turkish lira among other currencies, are back in vogue, fund managers said. In a typical currency carry trade, investors use cheap-to-borrow currencies to fund investments in those with better yields. Returns are boosted if the borrowed currency weakens. The dollar, traditionally less favoured than the Japanese yen or Swiss franc for such trades, has become the funding currency of choice as Trump's trade war stokes recession worries and an investor retreat from U.S. Treasuries. Carl Vermassen, a portfolio manager at Zurich-based asset manager Vontobel, has added to carry trades on the rupee and rupiah. "Emerging market local currency was basically shunned for the simple reason: to avoid local currency risk at a time of an almighty dollar," he said. "But, given most investors deem U.S. exceptionalism to have ended, things are changing." Claudia Calich, head of emerging market debt at M&G Investments, also expects dollar weakness to persist and support carry trades. The London-headquartered fund oversees more than 312 billion pounds ($423.5 billion) and favours the rupee and Philippine peso for carry positions within Asia and the Brazilian real and Mexican peso in Latin America. The more investors rush back into dollar carry trades, the deeper the dollar's losses are likely to be, analysts said. The dollar index has fallen 8.5% so far this year, dropping below the critical 100 mark in mid-April for the first time in nearly two years. It was last seen at 99.30. That means investors are finding good carry not just in the likes of the rupee and rupiah, whose yields are above those in the United States, but even those with low interest rates such as the South Korean won . The won has led gains in Asian currencies this year with a 6.7% rally against the dollar. The yield advantage over dollars, or the "carry", measured by the three-month tenure is 2% on the Indian rupee and 1.2% for Indonesia's rupiah. Brazil's real gives a much higher carry at 9% but is far more volatile, meaning the trade could go horribly wrong if the currency depreciates, instead of appreciating. The future expected 3-month volatility, also called implied volatility, for the real is 8.1% compared with 4.7% for the rupee. Goldman Sachs said carry trades were "a big theme" in recent meetings with its New York clients, with interest growing in Latin American and European markets. "If volatility settles some more, we will start to hear more about dollar-funded carry trades," ING Bank said. "This could be a story for this summer." Since "FX carry trades" typically involve investments in bond or money markets in these destinations, analysts expect to see heavy flows into emerging markets. Data for April shows investors bought bonds worth $8.92 billion, the highest for any month since last August, in South Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. While some of those flows could have been straight real-money investments into these markets, analysts say carry trades also boomed. In South Korea, foreign investors bought $7.91 billion in bonds, the most since May 2023. Tom Nakamura, vice-president and head of fixed income & currencies at Canadian fund AGF Investments, finds carry trades in Turkey attractive since the central bank's adoption of more orthodox monetary policy. Turkey's benchmark rates are at 46%(TRINT=ECI), opens new tab.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Weak dollar reprises its role as 'carry' trade funder
By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's weakness since the start of Donald Trump's presidency has made it the preferred funding currency for popular "carry" trades, fuelling heavy flows into higher-yielding emerging market currencies. Dollar-funded carry trades in the Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee, Brazilian real, Turkish lira among other currencies, are back in vogue, fund managers said. In a typical currency carry trade, investors use cheap-to-borrow currencies to fund investments in those with better yields. Returns are boosted if the borrowed currency weakens. The dollar, traditionally less favoured than the Japanese yen or Swiss franc for such trades, has become the funding currency of choice as Trump's trade war stokes recession worries and an investor retreat from U.S. Treasuries. Carl Vermassen, a portfolio manager at Zurich-based asset manager Vontobel, has added to carry trades on the rupee and rupiah. "Emerging market local currency was basically shunned for the simple reason: to avoid local currency risk at a time of an almighty dollar," he said. "But, given most investors deem U.S. exceptionalism to have ended, things are changing." Claudia Calich, head of emerging market debt at M&G Investments, also expects dollar weakness to persist and support carry trades. The London-headquartered fund oversees more than 312 billion pounds ($423.5 billion) and favours the rupee and Philippine peso for carry positions within Asia and the Brazilian real and Mexican peso in Latin America. The more investors rush back into dollar carry trades, the deeper the dollar's losses are likely to be, analysts said. The dollar index has fallen 8.5% so far this year, dropping below the critical 100 mark in mid-April for the first time in nearly two years. It was last seen at 99.30. That means investors are finding good carry not just in the likes of the rupee and rupiah, whose yields are above those in the United States, but even those with low interest rates such as the South Korean won. The won has led gains in Asian currencies this year with a 6.7% rally against the dollar. The yield advantage over dollars, or the "carry", measured by the three-month tenure is 2% on the Indian rupee and 1.2% for Indonesia's rupiah. Brazil's real gives a much higher carry at 9% but is far more volatile, meaning the trade could go horribly wrong if the currency depreciates, instead of appreciating. The future expected 3-month volatility, also called implied volatility, for the real is 8.1% compared with 4.7% for the rupee. Goldman Sachs said carry trades were "a big theme" in recent meetings with its New York clients, with interest growing in Latin American and European markets. "If volatility settles some more, we will start to hear more about dollar-funded carry trades," ING Bank said. "This could be a story for this summer." HUGE INFLOWS Since "FX carry trades" typically involve investments in bond or money markets in these destinations, analysts expect to see heavy flows into emerging markets. Data for April shows investors bought bonds worth $8.92 billion, the highest for any month since last August, in South Korea, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. While some of those flows could have been straight real-money investments into these markets, analysts say carry trades also boomed. In South Korea, foreign investors bought $7.91 billion in bonds, the most since May 2023. Tom Nakamura, vice-president and head of fixed income & currencies at Canadian fund AGF Investments, finds carry trades in Turkey attractive since the central bank's adoption of more orthodox monetary policy. Turkey's benchmark rates are at 46%.
Globe and Mail
21-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Citi (C) Sees Dollar Decline Following Tariff Softening at G-7 Meeting
Citigroup (C) expects the U.S. dollar to weaken following discussions at this week's Group-of-Seven meeting, as global leaders tackle currency issues tied directly to trade negotiations and tariff reductions. Citi analysts led by Osamu Takashima believe Washington is positioning for a subtle depreciation of the greenback, especially as tariff agreements ease tensions with East Asian trade partners. Currency policy has become a significant focus at the G-7 summit, with South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan engaging directly with U.S. officials on the topic. Japan's Finance Minister is slated for bilateral meetings with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, heightening expectations that the U.S. will press for currency appreciation among key trade partners as part of broader tariff negotiations. Market Overview: U.S. dollar expected to weaken following G-7 meetings. Currency appreciation a potential condition for reduced tariffs. East Asian nations primary focus in currency discussions. Key Points: Citi forecasts dollar depreciation as tariffs are rolled back. U.S. likely targeting Japan and China's currency policies. Role of central banks emphasized by Treasury Secretary Bessent. Looking Ahead: Dollar poised for further declines pending trade clarity. Future U.S. interest rates influenced by currency reserve policies. Tariff negotiations to significantly shape FX market sentiment. Bull Case: If the U.S. successfully encourages trade partners like Japan and China to allow their currencies to appreciate as part of tariff reduction deals, it could boost the competitiveness of U.S. exports and help reduce the U.S. trade deficit. A more balanced global currency landscape, potentially facilitated by G-7 discussions, could lead to smoother trade relations and reduced market volatility in the long run. A weaker U.S. dollar, as forecasted by Citi, could make U.S. goods and services more attractive internationally, potentially benefiting U.S. multinational corporations and export-oriented industries. The focus on central bank investment strategies for foreign currency reserves influencing U.S. interest rates, rather than direct intervention, suggests a more market-driven approach to currency adjustments. Successful negotiations leading to tariff rollbacks and managed currency adjustments could signal a de-escalation of trade tensions, fostering a more stable global economic environment. Bear Case: A weakening U.S. dollar, as anticipated by Citi and already evidenced by a 4% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index since April, could signal declining confidence in U.S. fiscal and trade policies and the overall safety of U.S. assets. Pressure from the U.S. for currency appreciation from East Asian trade partners, particularly Japan and China, could be met with resistance or lead to competitive devaluations, increasing FX market volatility. The depreciation of the dollar may be driven by concerns over the U.S. economy, the national deficit (highlighted by Moody's recent downgrade), and a lack of fiscal restraint, rather than a managed policy outcome. Uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of U.S. tariffs and the chaotic nature of their implementation has already negatively affected the dollar; further policy shifts could exacerbate this. If the U.S. pushes too aggressively for currency adjustments, it could strain relationships with key allies and trading partners, potentially complicating broader G-7 objectives and cooperation on other economic issues. A continued decline in the dollar could lead to imported inflation in the U.S. and may necessitate higher interest rates in the future to attract foreign capital, potentially slowing domestic economic growth. Citi analysts underscored that rather than pursuing a broad Plaza Accord-style intervention, Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to emphasize the role of central banks and their investment strategies in influencing currency markets. This nuanced approach could result in continued downward pressure on the dollar as tariff barriers are progressively lowered. Since the introduction of tariffs in April, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has already fallen about 4%, reflecting heightened uncertainty around U.S. fiscal and trade policies. Citi's outlook suggests these trends could persist, especially if U.S. trade strategy continues favoring tariff cuts accompanied by a softer dollar policy stance.
