5 days ago
3 Science-Backed Reasons Why We Need Leaders Who Doubt
To lead through complexity, we need leaders who are willing to question, listen, and adapt. Leaders ... More who doubt.
In the movie Conclave, Cardinal Lawrence (played by Ralph Fiennes) delivers a homily to begin the ancient process of picking a new Pope. After a solemn Latin preamble, he speaks from the heart: 'There is one sin which I've come to fear above all others. Certainty. Certainty is the great enemy of unity. Certainty is the deadly enemy of tolerance.' He closes with a radical plea: 'Let us pray that God grants us a Pope who doubts.'
It's a striking line—and a timely one.
In a world teetering on the edge of political, technological, moral upheaval, it's no wonder we crave certainty. We long for clear answers, solid ground, and leaders who sound sure—even when the world is anything but. And yet, the ground keeps shifting. Employees report an 80% rise in uncertainty, losing nearly a full day of productivity each week to stress and anxiety. The cost to employers? A staggering $183 billion a year.
At first glance, certainty seems like the obvious antidote. But here's the paradox: certainty isn't the opposite of uncertainty. Certainty is not clarity—it's often closure. It slams the door on new information, on nuance, on growth. What we need instead is doubt—not paralyzing and indecisive, but the thoughtful kind that invites reflection, openness, and the humility to revise our assumptions.
False certainty is rigid, defensive, performative. It doesn't steady us, it narrows us. It creates the illusion of control while blinding us to complexity. And in a world this volatile, complexity is the only constant. To lead through complexity, we don't need louder voices, we need wiser ones. Leaders who are willing to question, listen, and adapt. Leaders who doubt.
Here are three science-backed reasons why doubt isn't a leadership liability—it's an essential strength.
German physicist Max Planck once famously quipped, 'Science advances one funeral at a time.' Even the brightest minds—including his own protégé, Albert Einstein—can become so attached to their theories that they resist new ideas. Ironically, Einstein himself dismissed scientific advances that grew out of his own theory of relativity.
Innovation means being willing to let go of firmly-held beliefs long enough to try different ideas and consider discordant points of view. But that's hard—especially for experts. Research shows that the more experienced we are, the more cognitively entrenched we become. Expertise, while valuable, often narrows our thinking and reduces our mental flexibility. Certainty shrinks our peripheral vision.
This rigidity is especially dangerous in times of radical change. Disruptive technologies require not just technical understanding but an open mind—especially when the disruption challenges something that doesn't seem broken. Consider Blackberry: once the gold standard of mobile devices, the company failed to anticipate and respond to the iPhone's seismic shift. Their success became their blind spot. They clung to what had always worked, confident that market dominance would protect them. But by the time they recognized the landscape had changed, it was too late.
You can't embrace new ideas while clinging to the comfort of the status quo.
In a world beset by misinformation, one-sided narratives and polarizing perspectives, doubt may be one of the most underrated leadership tools we have. Doubt invites us to examine our assumptions, question our mindsets, and interrogate our biases. It fuels a growth mindset—one that embraces the idea that we can adapt to change by learning new skills and embracing new insights. Research supports this. Studies on learning agility—the ability to draw on past experiences to navigate unfamiliar challenges and hold competing perspectives—show it's a powerful predictor of both current and future career success.
Certainty, on the other hand, is the hallmark of a fixed mindset. It closes the mind, shutting down new opportunities. Certainty favors the obvious over the ambiguous. It also falsely protects the ego at the expense of curiosity. Our belief systems are deeply entangled with identity: the way we show up in the world, how we see ourselves and where we believe we belong. Neuroscience and behavioral research reveal that we often reject any evidence that threatens those beliefs—especially when they're shared by the groups we belong to and identify with.
This leaves us prone to closed-mindedness and intolerance. Known as 'motivated reasoning,' this cognitive reflex doesn't just preserve bias, it forecloses learning. To counteract it, leaders must cultivate intellectual humility and cognitive flexibility. That means seeking out dissonant perspectives, asking more questions, and challenging our own assumptions—especially when we feel most certain.
It's easy to be open-minded when the stakes are low. But in a volatile world, when the stakes are high, doubt becomes essential—not a weakness, but a discipline.
Leadership rarely gets easier with altitude. The higher you climb, the harder it is to get unfiltered feedback and the unvarnished truth. With limited access to candid input and incomplete data, even the most educated and experienced leaders are vulnerable to confirmation bias. One study found that psychologists are over 77% more likely to seek information that supports an initial diagnosis rather than explore conflicting evidence. Why? Because confirmation bias creates the illusion of stability. It allows us to make faster decisions based on what we already believe—offering comfort, but at the cost of clarity. It narrows our field of vision and stifles our ability to reconcile competing data. And too often, these fast decisions miss the mark.
Even when we try to stay objective, certainty clouds our judgment. Nobel Prize-winning research on prospect theory shows that in high-risk or complex situations, we use mental shortcuts—quick rules for sorting information and estimating outcomes. Instead of weighing real probabilities, we make decisions based on the outcomes we hope for. We prioritize minimizing losses over maximizing gains. In short: we choose the safer bet, not the smarter one.
Kodak offers a textbook example. In the 1970s, one of its own engineers invented the digital camera. But rather than embrace the breakthrough, Kodak treated it as a modest extension of their photo printing business. They feared that going digital would cannibalize their lucrative film sales. That fear—rooted in certainty about what had always worked—led them to dismiss the very future they had pioneered. While competitors rushed forward, Kodak stood still.
In times of rapid change, the cost of certainty is missed opportunity.
Theologian Søren Kierkegaard wrote, 'Life must be understood backwards. But it must be lived forwards.' The future is never predictable. And the pursuit of certainty—while comforting—often tethers us to the past: to familiar patterns, outdated assumptions, and habits that no longer serve the world we're trying to lead.
You don't have to be a Pope to feel the pull of certainty. But in today's world, none of us has the luxury of digging in our heels. Leadership demands a different kind of strength: the courage to sit with contradiction, to weigh competing truths, and to resist the rush to resolution.
In tumultuous times, we don't need leaders with all the answers, we need leaders willing to continually question.
May we all have the courage to become leaders who doubt.
