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New York Times
2 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Davante Adams, Travis Hunter and more best buys on the cusp of fantasy football draft season
With training camp in full swing and draft season right around the corner, let's look at some bargains based on July-only ADP through July 24. I'm focusing on overall ADP, but I also note positional ADP, as that's much more relevant regardless of your league's format. I've ignored the first three rounds because I want everyone to have a shot at all these players, no matter where they pick. I've also included their position ADP in my 2025 rankings, which are obviously significantly higher in all cases. I'm looking for bargains based on the round these players are being drafted. Advertisement He's playing this year without Deebo Samuel and probably without Brandon Aiyuk (ACL) for at least the start of the year. He's the team's No. 1 receiver. Let's look at Kittle's stats without either Samuel or Aiyuk on the field for the past three years: If we expect 500 Niners targets (very conservative), Kittle's share projects to 115. If we give him his average stats without Samuel or Aiyuk in the lineup, I get 90 catches for 1,368 yards with 12 TDs. Puka Nacua ran 239 routes with Cooper Kupp, and his target rate was 38% compared to 24% for Kupp. Adams is better than Kupp, who was hobbled last year by an ankle injury, so I expect a target rate of about 25-30% for Adams. Nacua was one of the lowest-targeted WRs in the red zone at just 16%. Expect Adams to dominate that area of the field. Adams was down less than a mile per hour in his top speed in 2024 vs. 2021 — faster than Nacua. In 2024, with the Jets, Adams was 50% better in expected YAC based on the radar than in 2021. We can't predict the future, but Adams showed no signs of age-based decline in 2024. He was third in the NFL with 80% of team rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line — even with three missed games. I figured Mixon would be a volume play last year, and he was, but his efficiency was decent, at least to start. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry in his first 205 totes and then 3.2 in his final 40. In the playoffs, he was great — 194 yards on 43 carries (4.5) with a pair of TDs. He's playing 2025 at age 29, and that's post-cliff for the generic RB. So, of course, there is risk here, but you're being paid to take it. Always bet against the market when it's sure on something unknowable — in this case, how much Hunter will be used on offense. No matter what the reports say, people will tether their ranking to their belief that he's a true two-way player with an expected 50% of WR snaps. But I think Hunter's snap rate on offense will be at least the top-50 average for WRs last year (92%), with maybe 8% of defensive snaps in high-leverage, obvious passing situations. I think he'll finish as a top-15 receiver. But I'm ranking him conservatively at WR20 and want to pay close to ADP, which I expect will rise to at least WR25 by draft day with camp news. Jameson Williams had 79% snaps in the games he played, and if Hunter doesn't match that, I'll eat a bug. In his 10 starts, Jennings produced a 59-767-6 line over 17 games, which works out to 100-1,304-10. Jennings is not slow (average for a WR) and is great on contested routes (10-for-17 on tight-window throws). Yes, he was 68th in separation according to the radar, right behind Allen Lazard. But separation seems like it should mean a lot, but it doesn't. You are wide open if you're open by his average of 2.5 yards. Who cares where that ranks? Advertisement We don't view Meyers as a No. 1 WR on the Raiders because their tight end is viewed that way. But when they were both on the field, Meyers had 113 targets (with over 400 more air yards), and Brock Bowers had 120. Also, Geno Smith likes throwing to outside receivers and hasn't really utilized the TE much. After Week 7, when he returned from injury and Adams was gone, Meyers' target rate was 24.5%. To reach 150 targets, you need 27.2% for 550 pass attempts or 23.6% with last year's 635 attempts. I project between 130 and 150 targets for Meyers. I get that no one is close to me regarding his ranking, but I believe in the numbers. I'm fading 31-year-old RB Aaron Jones. Back of the napkin numbers show that 24 RBs have had 200+ carries this century at age 30. At age 31, that drops to 17. So let's call that a 30% age-related collapse risk. The Vikings ran the ball 390 times with their RBs last year, so that leaves, at worst, 150 for Mason, with the likelihood of most of the goal-line work, since Jones is bad there (3-for-10 on goal-line runs — average is 44%). And that's with Jones staying healthy and productive at age 31 after playing all 17 games at age 30. Mason is the 22nd-highest paid RB in the NFL, which tells me the Minnesota plan is a full-blown 50/50 timeshare. (Photo of Davante Adams: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
Yahoo
a day ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings Tiers: Wide Receivers
With the teeth of draft season just around the corner, it's a good time to get the Shuffle Up series going. This week, I'll offer my player tiers for the four major positions in fantasy football. Consider them as you get ready for your drafts, or self-scout the teams you've already assembled. The quarterback and running back boards went up earlier this week; today, we handle the wideouts. Friday will be the tight end day. What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same salary are considered even. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Before you step into your draft room, examine your league settings closely — especially the WR requirements. If your league mandates three or more starters at this position, I want you to attack the pool aggressively — bully the wideouts. I want your WR room to be the envy of your entire league. If your pool requires just two wideouts on a weekly basis, it's probably better to focus on your RB room first. Tier 1: The Big Tickets $45 Ja'Marr Chase $43 Justin Jefferson $41 CeeDee Lamb $39 Amon-Ra St. Brown $38 Nico Collins $37 Malik Nabers $37 Brian Thomas Jr. $36 Puka Nacua Chase is my No. 1 overall player and, obviously, I have plenty of company there. It's a good time to be Chase — he's coming off a triple-crown win, he's tied to an elite QB in Joe Burrow, the Bengals have one of the most narrow usage trees in the league and the Cincinnati defense looks bad again. Get your popcorn ready, weekly pinball appears likely. Jefferson has been a superstar with every QB the Vikings have paired him with, so why should life with J.J. McCarthy be any different? And let's not treat McCarthy as some journeyman lottery ticket — he was a top recruit into Michigan and the 10th overall pick in the previous draft. Kevin O'Connell is one of the right answers when it comes to play design. Minnesota's offense is a safe place to park your money. The Rams haven't unlocked Nacua as a touchdown scorer (just 10 in 31 career games, including the playoffs), and they had little success with Nacua around the goal last year. And now Davante Adams joins the offense, a player put on the Earth to score touchdowns. Nacua also has more injury risk than the average player — he missed six games last year, and all four of his college seasons were injury-riddled. I understand the upside of Nacua — if healthy, he has a fair chance to lead the league in receptions. But he's currently commanding a top 10 pick in Yahoo leagues, and I won't sign off on that. The market gets nervous when someone like Ben Johnson leaves Detroit, but Jared Goff is a tenured quarterback in Detroit — he's essentially a coordinator for this offensive unit. Goff isn't going to forget what's worked with St. Brown the last four years. The Sun God lost some volume last year but made up for it with a spike in his touchdown rate. But even if he regresses to the 2022 touchdown rate, we're still talking about the WR9 here — a player with a very high floor. Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks $34 Drake London $34 Ladd McConkey $32 A.J. Brown $28 Mike Evans $27 Tee Higgins $26 Jaxon Smith-Njigba $25 Tyreek Hill $24 Davante Adams $23 Garrett Wilson $22 Terry McLaurin $21 Marvin Harrison Jr. When Michael Penix Jr. took over for the final three games of 2024, he quickly focused on London as his primary read. London absorbed a ridiculous 39 targets over that period, en route to a 22-352-2 line. Falcons OC Zac Robinson was more comfortable with the playsheet at the end of the year, and Atlanta has a lot of reliable advantages for fantasy managers — an indoor-heavy schedule, narrow concentration of targets. I'll be looking for London options in the second round all summer. It took Ladd McConkey some time to figure out the pro game, and for the Chargers to figure him out. But things were cooking in the latter stages of the year — McConkey posted a 45-657-3 line over his final seven games in the regular season (that tracks to 109 catches and almost 1,600 yards in a full season), and then detonated for a 9-197-1 line in the playoff loss to Houston. The genie is out of the bottle. McConkey's current Yahoo ADP is outside the top 20 overall, a screaming buying opportunity. Kyler Murray didn't make great use of Harrison or Trey McBride last year — Harrison didn't see a lot of layup targets, while McBride's touchdown count was laughably low. Murray at times struggles to see over-the-middle throws, a nod to his limited size. And it's not like Murray got any taller in the offseason. I understand all the scouting praise thrown at Harrison before last season and I respect that the Cardinals will be trying to unlock their most dynamic receiver in Year 2. But maybe this is as good as it gets with Murray, and it caps Harrison's upside. I can't draft MHJ proactively into the fresh season. Has the cheese gone bad on Hill? He didn't have a 30-yard reception after Week 1, a shocking stat. Obviously Miami had to retool the offense to the limitations of Tua Tagovailoa, but I don't see what's different with Tua going forward. The offensive line could also be a problem — this isn't a unit that encourages deep drops and long-developing routes. Hill wanted out of Miami when the season ended, then walked it all back with some reflection time. But I worry that if Miami gets off to a poor start in 2025, Hill could go off the reservation again. I won't be targeting Hill in his age-31 season. Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down $19 Jameson Williams $18 Xavier Worthy $18 DK Metcalf $18 DeVonta Smith $17 Zay Flowers $17 Courtland Sutton $17 DJ Moore $17 Calvin Ridley $17 Rashee Rice $17 Jaylen Waddle $15 George Pickens $15 Tetairoa McMillan $15 Travis Hunter $14 Rome Odunze $13 Chris Godwin $13 Chris Olave $12 Jordan Addison $12 Jauan Jennings $11 Jerry Jeudy $11 Ricky Pearsall $11 Jayden Reed $10 Khalil Shakir $10 Jakobi Meyers Calvin Ridley is no longer an exciting fantasy player entering his age-31 season. But he's also the best target in the Tennessee receiver room, and now that the Titans have a credible QB starter in Cam Ward, Ridley could be an interesting value play. Ridley currently holds an affordable sticker price of WR32, something he can easily beat in a healthy season. This is also a show of faith in play designer Brian Callahan, who knew how to utilize Ridley last year. The Buccaneers can't be that worried about Chris Godwin's return from ankle surgery — they gave him a three-year deal in March, after all. But the team also isn't guaranteeing that Godwin will be ready to play Week 1. The Yahoo draft market has kept Godwin in the top 80, which might be optimistic given the crowding in this passing game — Mike Evans is still here, Emeka Egbuka was drafted in the first round and Jalen McMillan had moments in his rookie season. It's also worth noting that Godwin has not been a dynamic touchdown scorer with Baker Mayfield, spiking a modest seven times over their 24 games together. Unless the draft price comes down, I'll be avoiding Godwin in August. As bad as the Cleveland QB room looked last year, it's certainly not improved this season — and could easily be worse. Jeudy has never shown the traits of a consistent touchdown scorer and at times, he shies from physical contact. I also suspect the Browns will try to win ugly this year, turning every game into a rock fight; they'll try to win 13-10, focusing on defense and the running game. Jeudy's cheap ADP obviously is tempting, but I'm likely to resist it. Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside $9 Deebo Samuel Sr. $9 Stefon Diggs $9 Josh Downs $8 Darnell Mooney $8 Brandon Aiyuk $8 Cooper Kupp $8 Michael Pittman Jr. $7 Rashod Bateman $6 Emeka Egbuka $6 Keon Coleman $6 Rashid Shaheed $5 Matthew Golden $5 Marvin Mims Jr. $4 Christian Kirk $4 Cedric Tillman $4 Marquise Brown $4 Jalen McMillan $4 Adam Thielen Occam's Razor carries the day with Kupp — he's entering his age-32 season and he's missed 18 games in the last three years. Now he's on a new team, ostensibly as the team's No. 2 target. I'd rather be a year early than a year late. Player development isn't always linear, but player decline almost always is. I toyed with ranking Downs earlier — it's the Indianapolis QB room that gave me pause. But he's a splash play waiting to happen. Downs was especially explosive last year when Joe Flacco played, and it's plausible that Daniel Jones — for all of his flaws — represents an upgrade over Flacco. But if Anthony Richardson Sr. has to play for the Colts for any extended period of time, all bets are off. Tier 5: Bargain Bin $3 Luther Burden III $3 Romeo Doubs $3 Tre Harris $3 Kyle Williams $2 Jayden Higgins $2 Quentin Johnston $2 DeAndre Hopkins $2 Alec Pierce $2 Joshua Palmer $2 Jalen Coker $2 Wan'Dale Robinson $2 DeMario Douglas $2 Tyler Lockett $1 Xavier Legette $1 Jack Bech $1 Jaylin Noel $1 Keenan Allen $1 Adonai Mitchell $1 Darius Slayton $1 Dontayvion Wicks $1 Andrei Iosivas $1 Michael Wilson $1 Calvin Austin III $1 Elic Ayomanor $1 Pat Bryant $1 Dyami Brown
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings Tiers: Running Backs
With the teeth of draft season just around the corner, it's a good time to get the Shuffle Up series going. This week, I'll offer my player tiers for the four major positions in fantasy football. Consider them as you get ready for your own drafts, or self-scout the teams you've already assembled. We handled the quarterbacks on Monday, and today we take on the running backs. The wideouts and tight ends will follow later this week. What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same salary are considered even. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Running back remains the most important of the four major positions in fantasy, the area we desperately want to get correct. Last year saw a shockingly low injury rate at this position, something that's unlikely to repeat. No matter how you address this spot at the front of your draft — Zero RB, Hero RB, Robust RB — you'll probably be sure to proactively draft a bunch of high-upside runners for your bench, hoping to get lucky here and there. Just one good break at running back can make a fantasy season. Tier 1: The Big Tickets $44 Bijan Robinson $43 Jahmyr Gibbs $42 Saquon Barkley $41 Derrick Henry $40 Ashton Jeanty $37 Christian McCaffrey $37 Jonathan Taylor $34 Josh Jacobs $33 Bucky Irving $33 Chase Brown $32 Kyren Williams $32 James Cook It took new Atlanta OC Zac Robinson some time to find his way last year, and Bijan Robinson was affected — he was merely the RB21 after four weeks. After that, Robinson averaged 20.1 points per week and was the overall RB2. Robinson offers everything we want in an early fantasy draft pick — upside, floor, low mileage (it's his third season, his age-23 season) and an offense that's presumably on the improvement path, with Michael Penix Jr. likely an upgrade over the late-career version of Kirk Cousins. Bijan to the moon. Barkley's season had "outlier" stamped all over it, with 15 touchdowns coming from an astounding average of 29.4 yards. The Eagles didn't give Barkley a single touchdown from the 1-yard line — that's Jalen Hurts territory — and Barkley remarkably kept hitting those glorious home runs. But 5.8 YPCs are always poor bets to repeat (De'Von Achane waves hello) and Barkley might have trouble staying healthy after handling a ridiculous 482 touches last year. Pricing in some regression is the prudent play, and let's not forget that Barkley missed multiple games in each of the five seasons preceding his move to Philadelphia. McCaffrey is the most ticklish boom-bust pick on the board, capable of elevating a fantasy roster to glory (think 2019 and 2023) and capable of ruining a season before September is over (think last year). McCaffrey has just two full seasons out of his last five, and he's moving into his ninth professional year — there's some mileage here. Of course, McCaffrey's value has always been significantly tied to his pass-catching chops, which enables him to be tackled by lighter defenders and avoid some of the attrition you face running inside. The 49ers' offensive line is probably average at best, but the Kyle Shanahan schemes are always a plus. Do you feel lucky? Taylor's value probably gets a boost with Daniel Jones the presumed Week 1 QB starter — whatever you think of Jones, he's more of a professional quarterback than Anthony Richardson Sr. right now, and Jones is also less likely to take rushing yardage off the table. Taylor was humming after his return from ankle problems last year, settling in as the RB7 from Week 8 to the finish of the year. The Colts have moved away from him as a receiver in recent years, which is why Taylor now commonly lands in the second round. But this looks like a safe area to park your investment. Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks $31 De'Von Achane $26 Kenneth Walker III $25 Breece Hall $25 Chuba Hubbard $24 James Conner $23 Omarion Hampton $23 Joe Mixon $21 Alvin Kamara $20 David Montgomery Walker is in a prove-it year, but he's proving it for a new coaching staff that inherited him. Zach Charbonnet performed better than Walker in several key metrics last year, and it's also possible the Seahawks might have a goal-line package for mobile rookie QB Jalen Milroe. Walker has also been a high-attrition back for most of his career, missing 10 games in three pro seasons. He's not a target of mine. Hampton was always the likely bet to take over the LAC backfield, but the Najee Harris eye injury clears the path somewhat. Hampton is five years younger than Harris and more athletic — Hampton posted a number of shiny measurables at the combine. He also showed the ability to play in all situations at North Carolina, including passing packages. Hampton has risen to RB21 in recent Yahoo drafts and could easily be a third-round staple when we move into the second part of August. Hall should be a player on the escalator and he's merely entering his age-24 season. The Jets will be a run-first offense from the jump. But New York is also going to employ multiple backs in every game plan, and then there's the presence of new QB Justin Fields, a threat to run for 1,000 yards of his own. If Hall is going to meet his expectant ADP, he needs to be active in the passing game — and Fields generally has not been a good quarterback for pass-catching backs. Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down $17 TreVeyon Henderson $16 RJ Harvey $16 Kaleb Johnson $15 D'Andre Swift $15 Tony Pollard $15 Aaron Jones Sr. $13 Isiah Pacheco $12 Brian Robinson Jr. $11 Travis Etienne Jr. $11 Tyrone Tracy Jr. $10 Jordan Mason Jones isn't a bad player, but it was interesting to see Minnesota add Mason to the backfield — Mason is about five years younger and he's 15 pounds heavier than Jones. It's possible Mason could become the short-yardage specialist here, and he looked like a potential feature back during his San Francisco days. Mason isn't a cheap lottery ticket — his Yahoo ADP is just outside the top 100 — but he's still someone I view as a proactive pick. Minnesota's depth is short behind this duo, so Mason will probably have a tangible role on opening day. The buzz on Harvey became a little more muted after the addition of J.K. Dobbins, but keep in mind Dobbins has been an ordinary pass-catcher all through his pro career. Dobbins has also had trouble staying on the field, playing just 37 games over five seasons. Sean Payton has always been fine with backfield platoons, but one of the backs has a realistic shot to handle 60% or more of the work. I'll keep betting on Harvey, the younger player with the higher upside. Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside $9 Jaylen Warren $9 Quinshon Judkins $9 Javonte Williams $8 Cam Skattebo $8 Najee Harris $8 J.K. Dobbins $7 Rhamondre Stevenson $7 Zach Charbonnet $6 Tank Bigsby $6 Rachaad White $6 Bhayshul Tuten $5 Tyjae Spears $5 Isaac Guerendo $5 Trey Benson $5 Ray Davis $5 Tyler Allgeier $5 Jerome Ford $5 Braelon Allen $4 MarShawn Lloyd $4 Nick Chubb $4 Jaydon Blue Liam Coen loved to throw to his backs in Tampa Bay, and Tuten was a handy receiver at Virginia Tech. The Jaguars have plenty of competition at the position, but it's possible they've soured on Travis Etienne Jr., and Tank Bigsby hasn't shown receiving chops in the NFL. Tuten isn't someone we'll draft as an initial fantasy starter, but see the long-term potential here. Although Davis is about 30 pounds heavier than teammate James Cook, don't overlook what Davis can do in the passing game. Davis was a reliable pass-catcher during his itinerant college days, and he secured 17-of-19 opportunities last year, making a juicy 9.9 yards per target. We've already had a look at what Davis might do in a featured role — he picked up a midseason start last year and rolled for 152 total yards. With Cook undersized and unhappy about his contract, Davis is one of the more interesting speculative plays on the board. Tier 5: Bargain Bin $3 Jaylen Wright $3 Austin Ekeler $3 Rico Dowdle $3 Blake Corum $3 Roschon Johnson $3 Dylan Sampson $3 Will Shipley $2 Kendre Miller $2 Kareem Hunt $1 DJ Giddens $1 Devin Neal $1 Jarquez Hunter $1 Audric Estime $1 Jaleel McLaughlin $1 Kyle Monangai $1 Elijah Mitchell $1 Justice Hill $1 Keaton Mitchell $1 Antonio Gibson $1 Devin Singletary $1 Miles Sanders $1 Kenneth Gainwell $1 Raheem Mostert $1 Jordan James $1 Sean Tucker $1 Chris Rodriguez Jr. $1 Emanuel Wilson
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings Tiers: Quarterbacks
With the teeth of draft season just around the corner, it's a good time to get the Shuffle Up series going. This week, I'll offer my player tiers for the four major positions in fantasy football. Consider them as you get ready for your own drafts, or self-scout the teams you've already assembled. Quarterbacks are the opening assignment; the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends will follow later this week. What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same price are considered even. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] As usual at quarterback, the position is deep. It's one of the long-running ironies of fantasy football — while real-life football is all about the quarterback, it's not a position of stress for most fantasy managers. This doesn't mean you can't attack the position proactively — especially with so many of the superstars offering a juicy rushing upside — but you can do well at any draft price point. Tier 1: The Big Tickets $31 Josh Allen $31 Lamar Jackson $28 Jayden Daniels $26 Jalen Hurts $26 Joe Burrow Allen finally bagged his first MVP award despite ordinary help from the Buffalo offense — the Bills didn't have anyone make it to 830 receiving yards, and Mack Hollins led the club in touchdown catches, a pedestrian five. Unfortunately for Allen, the Bills are basically asking him to play Superman again. Allen's aggressive running at the goal line (27 rushing scores in two years) hasn't cost him a start, and he's missed just one game since the beginning of the 2019 season. Allen will need to keep the rushing scores up to hold his place in line — the Bills have become more run-heavy under coordinator Joe Brady, and Allen's passing-yard count from last season was his lowest in five years. I usually don't go for a vanity QB in my roster builds, but Jackson presents an appealing case. Jackson didn't repeat as MVP last year, but he was the best quarterback in football, leading the league in YPA, touchdown rate and QB rating while trimming his sack and interception rates to career-low numbers. The Ravens don't ask Jackson to run a lot at the goal (just 14 touchdowns in four years), but he averages 1,018 rushing yards for every 17 games started. His professional maturity has coincided with the Ravens surrounding him with better talent and offensive scheming. There's no good way to defend these guys. Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks $17 Patrick Mahomes $17 Baker Mayfield $16 Justin Fields $15 Bo Nix $15 Brock Purdy $13 Kyler Murray $13 Dak Prescott The Chiefs have made it to the Super Bowl three years running, but Mahomes hasn't been much of a fantasy treat the last two seasons. His YPA has dipped to 6.9 over this sample (his career rate is 7.8) and his touchdown rate has slipped to 4.5 in the period (against a career norm of 5.9). Maybe the Chiefs will get a boost from a healthy Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy might have an expanded route tree in his second season. But we have to temper expectations for Travis Kelce in his age-36 season, and it's possible Rashee Rice could be looking at a multiple-game suspension. I can't view Mahomes as a proactive pick. Fields probably had the highest gap between real-life and fantasy value. His sack problem is an ongoing one — remember, sacks are more a quarterback stat than an offensive line stat — and the Jets might try to hide him in the offense. But Fields also is the unquestioned starter — Tyrod Taylor is a non-challenging backup — and Fields has the athleticism and willingness to run for 1,000 yards. The receiver room in New York is not deep, but at least Fields and Garrett Wilson know each other from two successful years together at Ohio State. I'll be ahead of market on Fields. If the Cardinals improve the offensive scheme and unlock their passing game, it will come at my expense. Murray is a straight fade for me. I worry that his below-average height keeps him from seeing the middle of the field properly — consider how the Cardinals struggled to get layup targets to Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, or unleash Trey McBride in the red area. And Murray's rushing has become a hit-and-miss proposition in recent years, something that doesn't always translate — he's averaged fewer than five rushing attempts over the last two seasons, and some kneeldowns are baked into that stat. Murray's career started with QB8 and QB3 finishes — he's been stuck in a QB10, QB18, QB26 and QB10 pattern since (last year's finish buoyed by playing the full schedule). He's not going to be part of my 2025 portfolio. Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down $12 Trevor Lawrence $11 Caleb Williams $11 Drake Maye $11 Justin Herbert $10 Jared Goff $10 Jordan Love $10 J.J. McCarthy $9 C.J. Stroud $8 Matthew Stafford Williams would like to forget most of his rookie year — those 68 sacks were a horror show — but the Bears basically set him up to fail. Since the end of the year, Williams got everything he wanted for Christmas: an improved offensive line, skill talent in the draft and a respected play caller to take over the offense. Williams needs to get more comfortable playing under center, and although he showed mobility as a rookie, he didn't run for any touchdowns. I don't dismiss his upside case out of hand, but I see other players around his general tier that make me more excited. Lawrence can be had about two rounds cheaper than Williams in early Yahoo drafts, which might present a buying opportunity. We've already seen some proof of concept with Lawrence — he was the QB7 back in 2022 — and new schemer Liam Coen is just as respected as Chicago designer Ben Johnson. And although the Jaguars don't have the offensive depth that the Bears enjoy, opening with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter in the passing game is a good place to start. Lawrence also should run for a handful of touchdowns, offering some extra floor. After watching Coen orchestrate the best season of Baker Mayfield's career, I'm excited to see what's possible with the Jaguars. McCarthy is another inexpensive upside pick to get excited about, because we've watched Kevin O'Connell perform miracles before. Sam Darnold may have crashed at the end of the 2024 season, but we can't discount 35 touchdown passes or a juicy 7.9 YPA. And recall when the Vikings had injury problems at quarterback the previous season, O'Connell somehow coaxed an 8.8 YPA from Nick Mullens (three starts) and an 8.4 YPA from Jaren Hall (two starts). McCarthy was a five-star recruit and a first-round pick, and I'd follow his coach into a burning building. Even if Jordan Addison misses some time with a possible suspension, the Vikings obviously have plus-talent to throw to. Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside $7 Bryce Young $7 Tua Tagovailoa $6 Michael Penix Jr. $6 Geno Smith $5 Cam Ward $5 Sam Darnold Young was the QB6 over the final six games of the year, in part due to improved passing stats, but also boosted by a surprising five rushing touchdowns. The former could be sticky, the latter likely will not be. But the Panthers seemed to make a plus-hire with Dave Canales a year ago, and Young finally gets to work with a bona fide No. 1 target in rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. Young might not have the upside to climb into the second tier of the position, but he's a reasonable backup for standard leagues or a solid QB3 target if you play in the Superflex format. Mike McDaniel has all offseason to fix his passing game, but after watching Tyreek Hill go without a 30-yard catch after Week 1 last year, I'm running away from this offense. Tagovailoa's concussion history has encouraged the Dolphins to focus on a short-hold passing game, and I'll need some proof of improvement before I trust this offense again. If that means I miss out on 2025 values, so it goes. Tier 5: Bargain Bin $4 Aaron Rodgers $3 Daniel Jones $3 Russell Wilson $2 Anthony Richardson Sr. $2 Tyler Shough $1 Joe Flacco $1 Jaxson Dart $1 Jalen Milroe $1 Kirk Cousins
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings Tiers: Quarterbacks
With the teeth of draft season just around the corner, it's a good time to get the Shuffle Up series going. This week, I'll offer my player tiers for the four major positions in fantasy football. Consider them as you get ready for your own drafts, or self-scout the teams you've already assembled. Quarterbacks are the opening assignment; the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends will follow later this week. What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same price are considered even. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] As usual at quarterback, the position is deep. It's one of the long-running ironies of fantasy football — while real-life football is all about the quarterback, it's not a position of stress for most fantasy managers. This does not mean you can't attack the position proactively — especially with so many of the superstars offering a juicy rushing upside — but you can do well at any draft-price point. The Big Tickets $31 Josh Allen $31 Lamar Jackson $28 Jayden Daniels $26 Jalen Hurts $26 Joe Burrow Allen finally bagged his first MVP despite ordinary help from the Buffalo offense — the Bills didn't have anyone make it to 830 receiving yards, and Mack Hollins led the club in touchdown catches, a pedestrian five. Unfortunately for Allen, the Bills are basically asking him to play Superman again. Allen's aggressive running at the goal line (27 rushing scores in two years) hasn't cost him a start, and he's missed just one game since the beginning of the 2019 season. Allen will need to keep the rushing scores up to hold his place in line — the Bills have become more run-heavy under coordinator Joe Brady, and Allen's passing-yard count from last season was his lowest in five years. I usually don't go for a vanity QB in my roster builds, but Jackson presents an appealing case. Jackson didn't repeat as MVP last year, but he was the best quarterback in football, leading the league in YPA, touchdown rate and QB rating while trimming his sack and interception rates to career-low numbers. The Ravens don't ask Jackson to run a lot at the goal (just 14 touchdowns in four years), but he averages 1,018 rushing yards for every 17 games started. His professional maturity has coincided with the Ravens surrounding him with better talent and offensive scheming. There's no good way to defend these guys. Legitimate Building Blocks $17 Patrick Mahomes $17 Baker Mayfield $16 Justin Fields $15 Bo Nix $15 Brock Purdy $13 Kyler Murray $13 Dak Prescott The Chiefs have made it to the Super Bowl three years running, but Mahomes hasn't been much of a fantasy treat the last two seasons. His YPA has dipped to 6.9 over this sample (his career rate is 7.8) and his touchdown rate has slipped to 4.5 in the period (against a career norm of 5.9). Maybe the Chiefs will get a boost from a healthy Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy might have an expanded route tree in his second season. But we have to temper expectations for Travis Kelce in his age-36 season, and it's possible Rashee Rice could be looking at a multiple-game suspension. I can't view Mahomes as a proactive pick. Fields probably had the highest gap between real-life and fantasy value. His sack problem is an ongoing one — remember, sacks are more a quarterback stat than an offensive-line stat — and the Jets might try to hide him in the offense. But Fields also is the unquestioned starter — Tyrod Taylor is a non-challenging backup — and Fields has the athleticism and willingness to run for 1,000 yards. The receiver room in New York is not deep, but at least Fields and Garrett Wilson know each other from two successful years together at Ohio State. I'll be ahead of market on Fields. If the Cardinals improve the offensive scheme and unlock their passing game, it will come at my expense. Murray is a straight fade for me. I worry that his below-average height keeps him from seeing the middle of the field properly — consider how the Cardinals struggled to get layup targets to Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, or unleash Trey McBride in the red area. And Murray's rushing has become a hit-and-miss proposition in recent years, something that doesn't always translate — he's averaged fewer than five rushing attempts over the last two seasons, and some kneeldowns are baked into that stat. Murray's career started with QB8 and QB3 finishes — he's been stuck in a QB10, QB18, QB26 and QB10 pattern since (last year's finish buoyed by playing the full schedule). He's not going to be part of my 2025 portfolio. Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down $12 Trevor Lawrence $11 Caleb Williams $11 Drake Maye $11 Justin Herbert $10 Jared Goff $10 Jordan Love $10 J.J. McCarthy $9 C.J. Stroud $8 Matthew Stafford Williams would like to forget most of his rookie year — those 68 sacks were a horror show — but the Bears basically set him up to fail. Since the end of the year, Williams got everything he wanted for Christmas: an improved offensive line, skill talent in the draft and a respected play caller to take over the offense. Williams needs to get more comfortable playing under center, and although he showed mobility as a rookie, he didn't run for any touchdowns. I don't dismiss his upside case out of hand, but I see other players around his general tier that make me more excited. Lawrence can be had about two rounds cheaper than Williams in early Yahoo drafts, which might present a buying opportunity. We've already seen some proof of concept with Lawrence — he was the QB7 back in 2022 — and new schemer Liam Coen is just as respected as Chicago designer Ben Johnson. And although the Jaguars don't have the offensive depth that the Bears enjoy, opening with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter in the passing game is a good place to start. Lawrence also should run for a handful of touchdowns, offering some extra floor. After watching Coen orchestrate the best season of Baker Mayfield's career, I'm excited to see what's possible with the Jaguars. McCarthy is another inexpensive upside pick to get excited about, because we've watched Kevin O'Connell perform miracles before. Sam Darnold may have crashed at the end of the 2024 season, but we can't discount 35 touchdown passes or a juicy 7.9 YPA. And recall when the Vikings had injury problems at quarterback the previous season, O'Connell somehow coaxed an 8.8 YPA from Nick Mullens (three starts) and an 8.4 YPA from Jaren Hall (two starts). McCarthy was a five-star recruit and a first-round pick, and I'd follow his coach into a burning building. Even if Jordan Addison misses some time with a possible suspension, the Vikings obviously have plus talent to throw to. Some Plausible Upside $7 Bryce Young $7 Tua Tagovailoa $6 Michael Penix Jr. $6 Geno Smith $5 Cam Ward $5 Sam Darnold Young was the QB6 over the final six games of the year, in part due to improved passing stats, but also boosted by a surprising five rushing touchdowns. The former could be sticky, the latter likely will not be. But the Panthers seemed to make a plus hire with Dave Canales a year ago, and Young finally gets to work with a bona fide No. 1 target in rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. Young might not have the upside to climb into the second tier of the position, but he's a reasonable backup for standard leagues or a solid QB3 target if you play in the Superflex format. Mike McDaniel has all offseason to fix his passing game, but after watching Tyreek Hill go without a 30-yard catch after Week 1 last year, I'm running away from this offense. Tagovailoa's concussion history has encouraged the Dolphins to focus on a short-hold passing game, and I'll need some proof of improvement before I trust this offense again. If that means I miss out on 2025 values, so it goes. Bargain Bin $4 Aaron Rodgers $3 Daniel Jones $3 Russell Wilson $2 Anthony Richardson Sr. $2 Tyler Shough $1 Joe Flacco $1 Jaxson Dart $1 Jalen Milroe $1 Kirk Cousins
