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The 4-Point Plan To Prepare For The Worst
The 4-Point Plan To Prepare For The Worst

Forbes

time22-05-2025

  • Business
  • Forbes

The 4-Point Plan To Prepare For The Worst

Illustration of the crisis concept with a businessman in panic The old joke goes: if you aren't panicking, you just don't understand the situation. We can all relate to that – now more than ever. The cat is very much amongst the pigeons, and chaos is certainly abroad. It might never happen, but most of us know that doing nothing is as poor a response as planning to flee. We're likely already in the best place to be if the worst comes to the worst, but for many, that doesn't stop them gnawing on a bone of worry. So, is there a master plan that can offer comfort in the face of unpredictable times – one that won't disrupt lifestyles while retaining the upside of business as usual? But first, let's consider a couple of sobering examples that crystalize why we might be concerned about the future. History provides some good examples. The first is an image from Wikipedia: a 1-yen gold coin: A 1-yen gold coin Yes, the 1-yen coin used to be gold – not aluminium. There used to be 100 sens to a yen, too. So, as you can see, given enough time, pretty much anything can happen economically – and usually, it's the erosion of value set off by politics. We know this, which is why we're all lured into reading the news. Bad things do happen. Take, for example, the history of the French 5 Franc: A short history of inflation using French coins You can see the tempo of dramatic change can be quite fast, even in a highly developed country like France. Even the U.S. one-cent coin has gone from a big, thick copper piece in the early 1800s to a tiny copper-clad version, with rumors today of its discontinuation. The $1 coin was once gold as well. While these examples are monetary,they underscore that preparing for an uncertain future is grounded in the historical reality of never-ending, painful disruption –not merely a pathology brought on by too much media consumption. So, is there a way to 'copper-bottom' your life and finances against bad times and emergencies – without going off-grid, learning how to build log cabins in remote locations with your bare hands? Happily, there is. You can cover your rear while behaving as if nothing could possibly go wrong. It's all about how you configure your assets, because in the end, financial flexibility is what protects. The configuration is this: You can see the principle. That might mean 25% of your wealth as cash in the bank, 25% in stocks, 25% in a bank somewhere far away but convenient, and 25% in rental property. You're free to play with the idea. Cash can mean pure cash, but it can also include assets you can liquidate in a trice, like stocks. Anything that can be cashed in a few days without a 'haircut' is as good as cash – because nothing will happen so fast that you won't have time to adjust your liquidity profile. If you're comfortable with near-cash as cash, you could have 50% in stocks, knowing you'd liquidate chunks if the going got bumpy. Likewise, you could have an offshore broker – if you are lucky enough to find one willing to take on U.S. citizens (if that's what you are) – and hold 25% of your offshore capital in stocks too. That would mean a significant exposure to equities while retaining the 'get out of jail' card you may feel you need if the wrong folks win the ballot. You might also find an offshore provider happy to vault 25% of your wealth in precious metals, or you might own a rental property abroad and mix and match the offshore segment with your productive asset allocation. The whole system is designed to protect you from inflation and help you retain flexibility in worst-case outcomes. With this structure in mind – even if you don't follow it exactly – you can put the pieces in place so that if you suddenly get skittish, you're prepared. You will be able to adjust your comfort levels to suit the circumstances because the infrastructure will already be there. Of course, without this structure, you'll probably be just fine. But since so many people stress over the future, it's reassuring to know that you can arrange your affairs in such a way that you can cover the downside – without going to extreme lengths. Cartoon: Not sure, how long we can pretend nothing is happening

RBA ‘caught a lot of people off guard' with comments after rate cut
RBA ‘caught a lot of people off guard' with comments after rate cut

News.com.au

time22-05-2025

  • Business
  • News.com.au

RBA ‘caught a lot of people off guard' with comments after rate cut

Independent analyst Evan Lucas has examined the 'bigger change' in the Reserve Bank of Australia's view on the economic downside following its decision to cut interest rates this week. 'Now, basically in the last 24 hours, pricing for the expectation of Christmas is for two with the possibility of three rate cuts to be done,' he told Sky News Australia. 'It would be a massive, massive boost ... if this comes to fruition – so, it's a big change and it's certainly caught a lot of people off guard with how sort of strong the wording to the downside it was.'

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