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Telegraph
4 days ago
- Business
- Telegraph
We're witnessing the slow extinction of the human race
'When the facts change', economist JM Keynes is supposed to have said to a critic, 'I change my mind. What do you do, sir?' In a vast swathe of countries, there are more deaths each year than births. Across the world, annual population growth has dropped from more than 2 per cent 60 years ago to less than 1 per cent and falling. Populations are ageing and shrinking with calamitous ramifications for economic dynamism and for the viability of welfare states. The facts have certainly changed, but contra Keynes, opinion – never mind action – is lagging well behind. Only slowly is humanity waking up to the possibility of a future in which history comes to an end, not in the kind of liberal utopia imagined by political theorist Francis Fukuyama, nor in the bang of the nuclear apocalypse feared during the Cold War, but in the whimper of the last person turning off the lights. Somewhere, some group or other with a pro-natal urge is likely to keep humanity going. But if the examples of the worst performing societies in East Asia are replicated – where a hundred parents make 33 children who make 11 grandchildren – the end of the human race altogether is not impossible. In the UK, where fertility rates have been below replacement level for more than half a century, feeble demography lies at the root of many if not most of the country's woes. Britain's increasingly upside-down population pyramid means society is less creative, productive and entrepreneurial, suffering from stultifying economic growth and placing ever greater burdens on the state. But ministers have been cautious even to comment on the matter. Keir Starmer was one of the first frontline politicians to have anything to say about the birth rate and the best he could muster amounted to little more than 'nothing to do with me'. Although many governments are uneager to dip their toes into controversial and turbulent demographic waters, it is nevertheless incumbent on those of us who understand the issue to think about what policies might be adopted so that when, one day, the authorities in countries like the UK wake up to the population emergency (as they already have in many other places, from China to France) they have an idea of what to do about it. Unlike hiking up interest rates to clamp down on inflation, this is not an easy matter. The mechanisms required to e ncourage people to have more children are not obvious and the remedies will not feed through into the workforce for the best part of 20 years. But the fact that it is difficult should not be a counsel of despair or inaction. The first reaction of many identifying a problem is to demand the government throw money at it. But as we know, many governments have precious little money to throw at anything. So, as my fellow author Philip Pilkington and I will argue in a forthcoming book on demography and economics, the whole way that government spends money, the whole of the welfare state, will need to be redesigned around the family, encouraging, incentivising and nurturing the formation of the unit within which children can be born and flourish. And the tax system should be redesigned around it, too. Those bearing the costs of producing a future cohort of workers are effectively bearing the costs of the existence of a future economy. Without children today, there will be no workers or taxpayers when today's cohort of the economically active age and retire. Reorienting the state, nation and economy towards families and childbearing – that is, towards the state, nation and economy having any kind of future – will take multiple forms. Childcare will need to be made more available and affordable. Planning restrictions which prevent the widespread creation of housing suitable for families will have to be smashed. Un-means-tested benefits for the elderly will need to be amended. The tax and benefits system penalising those who want to have children will require a complete overhaul. But however important it is for governments to start acknowledging the problem of too few births and doing something about it, economic incentives alone will not fix this problem. There is evidence that a suitable tax system stimulates family formation, that affordable childcare encourages working mothers to have more children, and that baby bonuses do indeed stimulate childbearing. But the effects are modest. In the UK, plenty of young people today say that they cannot afford to have children, and with housing out of the reach of many, nurseries wildly expensive by international comparisons, and the tax burden on young families indefensible, they deserve our sympathy and assistance. But in parts of the UK where housing is relatively cheap, the birth rate is not noticeably higher than where it is expensive. In countries where childcare is highly subsidised (Germany, the Baltic States), the problem has not improved. Recent data from the US shows that, while the better-off still have more children than middle-earners, the drop-off in arrivals on the maternity wards is affecting even the wealthiest. What is required, above and beyond any changes to tax and spend, is a cultural revolution which transforms coupling-up and having children from a distant aspiration to an urgent priority. Films and novels, internet influencers and education should orient around this goal. So many influences from the cultural sphere today are negative. Sex education focuses on prevention and disease rather than positively encouraging planned pregnancy. Instagram accounts are more focused on kittens than kids. Changing the culture is even harder than changing the material incentive structure, but it is the only way we stand a realistic chance of returning to a world in which the average couple having an average of two or three children is the norm. It is the only alternative to a terminal decline and a long farewell.
Zawya
01-08-2025
- Automotive
- Zawya
The renovated National Road 1 between Kinshasa, Kwango and Kwilu is boosting economic activity in the south-west of the Democratic Republic of Congo
In Kikwit, in Kwilu province in the south-west of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the "lower town" market is bustling. No-one seems bothered by the sun, which is at its zenith. Motorcycles, tricycles, goods trucks and street vendors intermingle in a constant, noisy ballet, signs of the economic dynamism of this city located more than 600 kilometres from the capital, Kinshasa. In the distance, men can already be seen busy loading huge blue plastic drums onto large trucks lined up in single file at the edge of the market. Their destination: Kinshasa, via National Road No. 1 or RN1. Modeste Mafangala, a road haulier, makes no secret of his satisfaction with a recent major change in his daily life: the repair of the Kinshasa–N'Djili–Batshamba section of the RN1. "Before, it was very difficult to get from here to Kinshasa. You could spend a week or two on the road. But now the road is good. The goods we're loading today will arrive at their destination the next day, either by bus, truck or motorcycle," he says, visibly relieved. The project to renovate the 622-kilometre section of RN1 between Kinshasa, N'Djili and Batshamba was financed to the tune of $70.2 million by the African Development Fund, the African Development Bank Group's concessional financing window. The project addresses the major challenge of opening up rural areas to trade in goods and services. Long isolated due to poor road conditions, the provinces of Kwango and Kwilu now enjoy better connectivity with the capital and with each other. This improvement greatly facilitates interprovincial trade and creates momentum for regional economic integration. The impact on transport conditions is particularly evident. The journey between Kinshasa and Kikwit, and even Batshamba, now takes just six hours. In addition to reducing travel times, the improved road quality has also led to a significant reduction in the number of accidents. "Back then, hauliers would spend days on end trying to reach Kikwit or Tshikapa,' explains Jean Luemba, project implementation coordinator in Kinshasa. 'But today, they get there in less time and save money on fuel and even spare parts, because with all the potholes on the road, vehicles used to suffer significant damage. You could say that hauliers are now getting their money's worth." But the benefits of the project go far beyond simply repairing the road. An integrated approach to development has multiplied the positive impacts for the people living in the project area. Schools now have access to drinking water, health centres have been built, rural markets refurbished, agricultural tracks upgraded, and several villages equipped with boreholes. At the Don Bosco Institute in Kenge, for example, the project has changed the daily lives of the students. A drinking water borehole with a standpipe has been installed in the schoolyard, so the students can now enjoy their breaks without worrying about finding water to drink. Espérance Anga, a student in the 4th grade general mechanics class, said: "This is a very good thing for us. Before, we had trouble getting drinking water during breaks. We used to buy water in bags from the canteen. Now, thanks to the borehole, it's much easier." The RN1 renovation project is a major infrastructure initiative that is expected to have positive effects on socioeconomic development in the Democratic Republic of Congo. By connecting Kinshasa to the provinces of Kwango and Kwilu, the road facilitates travel and trade, with a knock-on effect on the daily life of communities and economic activity. "Today, people living along the road can get more value from their daily produce. They can sell more easily because vehicles now have direct access to their villages. One mother, for example, no longer needs to travel to Kinshasa or the market to sell a bag of cassava or charcoal: she can sell it in front of her house. It's a real change in their daily lives," says Jean Luemba. Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).
