Latest news with #economicfallout
South China Morning Post
21-07-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
From job cuts to suspending plans, Taiwan firms brace for Trump tariff storm
At least a quarter of Taiwanese companies have put expansion plans on hold, and 5 per cent have started cutting staff in the shadow of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on the island, according to a new study. The findings come amid persistent uncertainty over the potential economic fallout from Washington's tariff plan, especially following speculation that Taiwan could face a steep 32 per cent import duty – matching the level initially proposed by Trump in early April. A midterm assessment report released on Monday by two opposition-aligned think tanks found that more than half of the Taiwanese firms with trade ties to the United States expected to be affected by the new tariffs. The study involved a survey a 238 companies and was jointly conducted by the National Policy Foundation – which is affiliated with the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) – and the Taiwan People's Party policy committee. 01:42 Trump imposes 25% unilateral tariffs on Japan, South Korea amid slow negotiation progress Trump imposes 25% unilateral tariffs on Japan, South Korea amid slow negotiation progress Under a hypothetical 10 per cent tariff scenario, nearly 60 per cent of the surveyed firms said they expected only minor revenue changes or no significant impact.
SBS Australia
17-07-2025
- Business
- SBS Australia
What would the fallout be if Donald Trump tries to fire the Federal Reserve chief?
US President Donald Trump has again said he has no immediate plans to fire the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, after a string of media reports suggesting otherwise. Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Powell in recent months for not lowering interest rates and what he sees as an overpriced renovation of the Fed's headquarters in Washington. On Wednesday, he continued his criticism, saying while it was "unlikely" Powell be fired soon, "unless he has to leave for fraud". There has been no evidence of fraud, and the Fed has pushed back on criticism. Trump also told reporters that he had floated the idea of getting rid of Powell with Republican lawmakers in a meeting on Tuesday. No president in recent US history has gone after the head of the Federal Reserve, which is supposed to operate independently from the government. So, does Trump have the power to fire Powell, and what would the economic fallout be of any attempt to do so? Can the president fire the Federal Reserve chief? According to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, the chair of the bank can only be dismissed "for cause", which is broadly interpreted as relating to extraordinary cases of gross misconduct. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Trump appeared to double down on the Fed's renovation as a new line of attack, stating that it was "possible there's fraud involved" while complaining about the cost of the project. "There could be something to that, but I think he's not doing a good job. He's got a very easy job to do. You know what he has to do? Lower interest rates," he added. The comments prompted concerns from Democrats that Trump is manufacturing outrage over the building works to use them as grounds for Powell's dismissal. If Trump were to fire Powell, over what many view as a policy dispute, it would be unprecedented and could end up in court. But whether or not the Supreme Court — which has consistently ruled in Trump's favour throughout his second term — would seek to protect the impartiality of the central bank is currently being hotly debated by US economists, scholars, and analysts. A 'dreadful idea' and 'very significant' market reaction Former Fed officials and financial experts have consistently warned that the economic fallout from any attempt to fire Powell would be swift and far-reaching. "If there were an effort by the president to remove the chair, the market reaction would be very significant — well before any court had an opportunity to pass on the issue," former Fed board member Daniel Tarullo told the Harvard Gazette in late April. In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Roger Altman, who was deputy Treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton, described Trump's impulse to interfere with the Fed as "a dreadful idea," pointing to the economic downturn other countries that have meddled with their central banks have faced. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina delivered a spirited defence of an independent Fed on Wednesday. "There's been some talk about potentially firing the Fed chair," said Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees the Fed and confirms presidential nominations to its Board. Subjecting the Fed to direct presidential control would be a "huge mistake," he said. Meanwhile, a research paper by Wolfe Research, which gamed out possible market scenarios if Trump decides to go after Powell, stated that regardless of whether it was deemed legal or not, the result would be an extreme "mess". "We expect, as does everyone else, that it would be significantly negative for markets, likely driving both an equity selloff and a counterproductive spike in long-term yields," the firm wrote in a briefing. — Additional reporting by Reuters
Wall Street Journal
13-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey
The economic fallout from President Trump's policies may prove less dire than feared. Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal's quarterly survey of professional forecasters.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil prices jump after U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities
Oil prices jumped and stock futures slipped Sunday evening, indicating concern among investors about the possibility of economic fallout from the ongoing unrest in the Middle East following U.S. strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. The major focus is on oil. Iran remains a major international oil supplier, and it also sits on the Strait of Hormuz, a heavily trafficked waterway in the Persian Gulf that is a key transit channel for about one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Concerns centered on whether Iran would begin limiting or shutting down access to the strait. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that closing the strait would be tantamount to 'economic suicide' for Iran and called on China, Iran's top trading partner, to head off any attempt by Iran to affect traffic. U.S. and global oil benchmark prices opened up 4% Sunday evening, underscoring the concerns about what the conflict means for the world's oil supplies. Those gains had eased slightly by 9 p.m. Sunday. Oil prices already gained about 3% last week in the wake of Israel's initial strikes against Iranian targets and Iran's retaliatory missile attacks. Stocks also slid Sunday. S&P 500 futures contracts opened about 0.6% in the first hour of trading, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell about 250 points, or 0.6%. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.7%. Like oil, they had pared those opening losses somewhat by 9 p.m. U.S. markets officially open at 9:30 a.m. ET Monday. 'Should oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz be affected, we could easily see $100 oil' or an increase in U.S. gas prices by 75 cents per gallon, Andy Lipow, president of the consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, said in a note to clients Sunday. In a worst-case scenario in which oil prices rose to at least $120 a barrel, U.S. gas prices would increase as much as $1.25 per gallon, Lipow said. In a follow-up email, Lipow said that even if the strait does not officially close, any action by a tanker company to pre-emptively reduce its footprint there represents 'a de facto supply disruption.' Iran's state-owned media reported that Iran's parliament backed closing the strait — but that the final decision lies with Iran's national security council, according to the report. Any move by Iran to alter traffic in the strait could also hurt its own economy — particularly commerce with China. On Sunday, a department of the U.K. Royal Navy said it observed 'electronic interference in the Strait of Hormuz.' At least two massive supertankers that had entered the strait were reported to have made U-turns. Marine tracking websites also showed the vessels turning about halfway through the strait. 'I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said in an interview on Fox News. China is Iran's most important oil customer, and they maintain friendly relations. Iran may still be assessing the ultimate damage to its nuclear facilities as it contemplates its next move. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Sunday that while it had confirmed that the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites had been hit, it was not immediately possible to assess the damage at the Fordo site. Until last week, U.S. stocks had been enjoying a substantial, if volatile, recovery from the lows following President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement in April. That momentum reversed after Israel announced last weekend it had struck key Iranian military and nuclear targets, prompting retaliatory missile strikes on Israeli targets by Iran. JPMorgan analysts said Sunday that investors had voiced concerns to them last week that the Iran-Israel conflict would spread, 'and those concerns have been materialized.' 'Trump's statement that this might be the only US attack or might begin a series of attacks brought us little certainty,' the analysts added in a note to clients. 'Moreover, we do not see an obvious route to a political settlement to the military conflict, which makes us think the conflict, like the one in Gaza, could last longer than many investors think.' Year to date, the S&P 500 is up less than 2%. This article was originally published on
Bloomberg
16-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Battered Wall Street Short Brigade Is Refusing to Admit Defeat
Just like that, the panic on Wall Street has vanished almost as quickly as it arrived. Just weeks ago, traders from Singapore to New York were bracing for the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's trade war. Global markets had shed trillions in value and American financial dominance faced its sharpest scrutiny in years.
