Latest news with #economictrends
Forbes
a day ago
- Business
- Forbes
Investment In The Small Business Community
Virtually every large producing firm in the U.S. started as a small business, usually in a home or garage, financed by the personal savings of the entrepreneur, and family and friends. Microsoft and Amazon come to mind. Most starts, of course, will not replicate those growth experiences. But drive down the Main Street of any U.S. city and you will pass the storefronts of America's largest employer – small business. Investment comes in two forms: time and money. Both are in short supply but necessary for a successful small business. Entrepreneurs work long hours, which is necessary to efficiently employ the capital available. Depending on the industry of the business, buildings are needed, as well as a wide variety of physical capital. A dishwasher is critical for a restaurant but not for a construction firm. The quality of the equipment and management impact the productivity of the employees, which directly affects unit labor costs. And labor costs are, for most firms, the largest item in the P&L. It's hard to discern any trend in capital spending; the 2008 recession clearly tanked investment spending, as have all recessions. Clearly, the fear associated with Y2K drove the highest levels of investment spending in the last 50 years, which fell sharply after we all saw what actually happened (which was not much). Investment spending picked up around 2016 but hit a wall with Covid, and has been subdued since. Actual Capital Outlays. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. April 2025. Reporting on their most recent outlays, there appears to be little variation between 2019 and 2025 in the type of specific investments in capital equipment. Most expenditures are paid for in the purchase period, not financed. Vehicles and equipment dominated the shopping list, although taken together, facilities expenditures were almost as frequent as vehicle purchases. Capital Expenditures. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. There was a lot of inflation at the end of the 2019-2025 period. However, there is not much evidence of it in the size of expenditures, other than a shift from outlays below $10k to the $10k-$50k category. They buy what they need to run their business and figure out ways to absorb higher costs. Apparently, most small business borrowing is for cash flow management, not for the financing of major equipment and facilities purchases. Expenditure Spending. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. Employees get paid by the hour of work provided, delivering variable amounts of value. Owners are compensated in the bottom line of the P&L. Owners don't 'punch a clock,' they just work. They are the most valuable asset of the firm. Their focus too often is diverted by mandated compliance activities of dubious value. Their investment of time is critical to the success of the firm, and regulators should avoid unnecessarily diverting their attention from their main job – building a successful business.
CBS News
3 days ago
- Business
- CBS News
Will the price of gold hit a new high this June?
The price of gold has been consistently rising and could continue to do so this June. Getty Images/iStockphoto The price of gold has seemingly been on an endless rise, the latest price record coming in recent weeks when it surpassed $3,400 per ounce. While that new price record was remarkable in itself, what has been equally impressive is the extended price surge gold has experienced since early 2024. Priced at just $2,063.73 in January 2024, the price of gold per ounce as of May 28, 2025, is $3,300.77 for the same amount, according to American Hartford Gold, constituting a near 60% rise in under 18 months. Ahead of a new month, then, and with opportunities to buy in during small gold price dips rare, many prospective investors may be wondering about the potential for gold's price to rise again soon. Specifically, will the price of gold hit a new high this June? If recent history is a reliable indicator, it may. Below, we'll detail why it could rise again (and how investors can still get started without having to pay today's top price). Invest in gold before the price rises again here. Will the price of gold hit a new high this June? There are multiple reasons why gold's price could rise again this June. Here are three to know: Inflation progress could slow Inflation declined in February, March and April, after rising in the four prior months, but that progress could slow in May, should broader economic trends continue. Concerns over economic policies, tariffs and trade deals could cause everyday prices to rise – and inflation to spike again. If that happens, gold prices could rise too, as investors tend to turn to the yellow metal for protection against inflation as the purchasing power of the dollar erodes. So if you're considering the metal for that reason or just as a broader portfolio diversification tool, you may want to act aggressively before the May inflation reading is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 11. Explore your current gold investing options now. Interest rates are likely to remain frozen After the Federal Reserve issued three rate cuts in the final months of 2024, borrowers (and savers) expected more in 2025. But rates have remained frozen in the first five months of 2025 as the central bank gauges its progress against inflation and other economic concerns. Now, the CME Group's FedWatch tool has a rate pause for the Fed's June meeting listed at a 97.9% certainty. Traditionally, a rise in rates causes gold prices to increase while a cut results in them dropping. A pause, however, could keep them high. But if comments made by the central bank after that meeting indicate higher rates for longer, gold prices could tick up in response. Geopolitical tensions could rise Geopolitical tensions have been high in recent years and remain one of the key reasons why gold has surged in price. But they have not changed dramatically in recent months, either, and any negative development here could easily lead to an investor surge in safe-haven assets like gold. And that could cause the price to spike yet again, potentially close to the $4,000 mark, depending on the severity of the circumstances. While this may feel like conjecture, a quick review of gold prices in response to recent world affairs demonstrates that this is more likely than some investors may prefer. How to invest in gold with the price high While today's gold price is exorbitant, prospective investors can still get started with fractional gold, which allows them to invest in the precious metal in an amount smaller than the traditional 1-ounce. Dollar-cost averaging, in which you invest a select amount of money in gold in routine intervals, regardless of the price, could also help you get invested with limited funds. And gold-exchange traded funds (ETFs), traded on stock exchanges in amounts of a fraction of an ounce, could also allow you to benefit from the features a gold investment offers without being burdened by today's top price. Investing cost-effectively in today's gold price climate, however, will require strategy and patience, perhaps more so than when the cost of the metal was closer to the $2,000 mark. The bottom line Predicting the price of any asset is inherently difficult to do with precision but especially so with gold, which has broken numerous price records in recent years. But if inflation progress slows, interest rates remain high and geopolitical concerns remain prevalent or even if one or two of those factors remain prominent in June then, yes, gold prices could rise to yet another new high in the month. Understanding this reality, prospective investors may want to be proactive and get invested now, while the price is comparably low. Just remember to keep your gold investment limited to 10% of your overall portfolio to avoid crowing out other, income-producing assets at the same time.
Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- Times
It'll take more than words to attract investment to Europe
The annual Milken Global Conference, which took place just over a week ago in Beverly Hills, is one of the most important dates in the investor calendar. For a few days, about 4,000 financial executives and policymakers, this year including Bill Ackman, Marc Rowan and Tony Blair, as well as sports and movie stars, convene in the home of Hollywood to talk about the trends shaping global markets. Two themes from this year's conference stood out, which, taken together, may suggest that reports of the US's economic demise, and Europe's rise, may be overstated. Most striking was how the Trump administration treated Milken — overlooked by the Biden administration — as a diplomatic mission to Wall Street. High-profile members of the president's inner circle
Forbes
14-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Trump's Winners: 10 Best Performing U.S. Companies Since Inauguration
Stocks are down since Trump's inauguration but some companies are doing well. The stock markets may have rallied in recent days, but the S&P500 is still down 5% since Trump's inauguration. This does not mean that all companies have declined during that period. On the contrary, some have done well. To identify how U.S. companies can excel under the current administration, it may be helpful for business leaders to consider which companies had the best stock price performance between January 17 (the last trading day before inauguration) and May 8, 2025. Three strategic pathways emerge. First, being efficient at selling essentials always works during turbulent times. That's true for Kroger and Dollar General, but also Philip Morris. Second, if you are great at creating the essential plumbing for the digital world—AT&T and VeriSign are good examples—you are set for growth. Finally, if you play in niches less affected by trade wars or polarization in general, then you can avoid some of the headwinds. Again, AT&T is a good example. So is Netflix. Better still, these tensions may play in your favor as it does for the government's security firm of choice Palantir. Even when consumers are unsure about the future, they continue to buy essential goods like groceries. Instead of buying less, they actually shift their spending from other discretionary items to food. Meaning the demand even increases. Discount stores tend to benefit most from this. Although Kroger is a mid-market retailer, it carries 16,000 well-priced items under its own private labels. These products generate 20% of the company's revenues. In short, turbulent times are not bad for Kroger. Telecoms are relatively isolated from trade wars. While tariffs had an effect on the availability and cost of some telecom equipment, the overall trajectory of the Trump administration is favorable for AT&T. Reducing the regulatory burden, and particularly easing M&A restrictions, opens the door for strategic deals. If the plan to reduce corporate tax materializes, it will improve AT&T's financial position and the administration's desire to invest in infrastructure aligns well with the company's main strategic play to expand fibre networks and modernize 5G networks. Not all corporate fortunes are tied to the woes of an administration. Howmet Aerospace is able to exploit a leading position in a profitable niche market—aerospace fastening systems and forged aluminium wheels for commercial transportation. Tariffs on steel and aluminium have not undermined this, as Howmet optimized its supply chain, carefully managed its offerings, and could pass on rising costs by invoking force majeure. Gold has always been a safe haven in times of political turmoil and inflation. So it is no surprise that the mining company holding the world's largest gold reserves is doing well at the moment. For the past decade Newmont has consistently produced 6 million ounces per year, making them a likely beneficiary of rising prices. The company has also increased operational efficiency in recent months, after being punished for higher-than-expected costs reported in October last year. CVS integrated health model came under fire in late 2024. New bi-partisan legislation introduced in December intends to break the relationship between pharmacies and health insurance. Not surprisingly, the share price dropped. The increase since January is a recognition by the market that CVS has been able to adjust quickly. Financials in the first quarter were strong while CVS prepares legal challenges, increases lobbying efforts, and plans 270 pharmacy closures in 2025. Considerable headwinds are waiting though, with this administration planning to lower drug prices partly by cutting out pharmacy benefit managers. Lilyhammer, the story of a New York mobster relocating to Norway, was Netflix's first original. It was Netflix's answer to a new threat: streaming services set up by Hollywood studios. Rather than trying to mimic the likes of Disney, it leveraged its international footprint, often partnering with local studios to create unique content that it distributed globally. This strategy still works, even more so in a more divided world. A new season of Korean hit-show Squid Game and the unexpected success of British produced Adolescence were among the new releases attracting and retaining subscribers. In addition, expansion into live streaming, interactive shows, and gaming created new income streams. New growth engines! Discount stores do well when consumers are worried. During the pandemic, Dollar General's stock went up by 60%, though it dropped sharply afterwards. Since then, a turnaround has increased efficiency, leveraging the considerable scale the company has. No other retailer can match its local footprint of 20,000 stores. That puts a Dollar General store within 5 miles of 75% of Americans. With the economy entering choppy waters, this combination of low prices and convenience sets Dollar General up for further growth. Warren Buffet likes three things when looking at potential investments: strong fundamentals, a unique competitive edge, and consistency. Since 2018, VeriSign has consistently reported exceptionally high net profit margins above 45%. Its competitive advantage is the monopoly it holds for .com and .net domain names. Consumers don't buy from VeriSign directly, but every time someone buys one of these domains, the company gets paid. Even better, it can increase prices—last September by it did so by 7%. VeriSign may be a boring company, but by providing vital plumbing for the digital economy, it is also likely to prevail in more turbulent times. Tobacco products are consumer staples that are usually not effected by recessions. But Philip Morris has a strategy that puts it ahead of U.S. competitor Altria (+16%). Crucially, Philip Morris has diversified more successfully—42% of its quarter one revenues came from smoke-free products. Compared to cigarettes, this is a growing market. In addition, the exposure to tariffs is limited. Since the spin out of Altria in 2008 no cigarettes are sold in the US. Other products are but supply chains are regional, with ZYN nicotine pouches for the U.S. market for example being produced in the country. Investors are always excited when companies are aligned with major trends. Few are in such a perfect spot as Palantir right now. It invested early in an AI platform. As CEO Alex Karp writes in the most recent letter to shareholders, at that time, 'many were skeptical, if not outright hostile.' And in an increasingly polarized world where many conflicts are fought online, Palantir's government security products are highly in demand. This isolated the company to the recent downward trends of tech stocks and outweighed concerns about how trade wars might affect the company. This analysis of the 10 best performing companies since inauguration offers a timely reminder that, even during difficult periods, there are usually winners as well as losers. The companies that benefit most are those with strong strategies that align with the needs of the situation and turn challenges into opportunities.
Forbes
14-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Trump Winners: The 10 Best Performing U.S. Companies Since Inauguration
Stocks are down since Trump's inauguration but some companies are doing well. The stock markets may have rallied in recent days, but the S&P500 is still down 5% since Trump's inauguration. This does not mean that all companies have declined during that period. On the contrary, some have done well. To identify how US companies can excel under the current administration, I analyzed those who had the best stock price performance between January 17th (the last trading day before inauguration) and May 8th. Three strategic pathways emerge. First, being efficient at selling essentials always works during turbulent times. That's true for Kroger and Dollar General, but also Philip Morris. Second, if you are great in creating the essential plumbing for the digital world—AT&T and VeriSign are good examples—you are set for growth. Finally, if you play in niches less affected by trade wars or polarization in general, you can avoid some of the headwinds. Again, AT&T is a good example. So is Netflix. Better still, these tensions may play in your favour as it does for the government's security firm of choice Palantir. Even when consumers are unsure about the future, they continue to buy essential goods like groceries. Instead of buying less, they actually shift their spending from other discretionary items to food. Meaning the demand even increases. Discount stores tend to benefit most from this. Although Kroger is a mid-market retailer, it carries 16,000 well-priced items under its own private labels. These products generate 20% of the company's revenues. In short, turbulent times are not bad for Kroger. Telecoms are relatively isolated from trade wars. While tariffs had an effect on the availability and cost of some telecom equipment, the overall trajectory of the Trump administration is favourable for AT&T. Reducing the regulatory burden and particularly easing M&A restrictions opens the door to strategic deals. If the plan to reduce corporate tax materializes, it will improve AT&T's financial position and the administration's desire to invest in infrastructure aligns well with the company's main strategic play: to expand fibre networks and modernize 5G networks. Not all corporate fortunes are tied to the woes of an administration. Howmet Aerospace is able to exploit a leading position in a profitable niche market—aerospace fastening systems and forged aluminium wheels for commercial transportation. Tariffs on steel and aluminium have not undermined this, as Howmet optimized its supply chain, carefully managed its offerings, and could pass on rising costs by invoking force majeure. Gold has always been a safe haven in times of political turmoil and inflation. So it is no surprise that the mining company holding the world's largest gold reserves is doing well at the moment. For the past decade Newmont has consistently produced 6 million ounces per year, making them a likely beneficiary of rising prices. The company has also increased operational efficiency in recent months, after being punished for higher-than-expected costs reported in October last year. CVS integrated health model came under fire in late 2024. New bi-partisan legislation introduced in December intends to break the relationship between pharmacies and health insurance. Not surprisingly the share price dropped. The increase since January is a recognition by the market that CVS has been able to adjust quickly. Financials in the first quarter were strong while CVS prepares legal challenges, increases lobbying efforts and plans 270 pharmacy closures in 2025. Considerable headwinds are waiting though, with this administration planning to lower drug prices partly by cutting out pharmacy benefit managers. Lilyhammer, the story of a New York mobster relocating to Norway, was Netflix's first original. It was Netflix's answer to a new threat: streaming services set up by Hollywood studios. Rather than trying to mimic the likes of Disney, it leveraged its international footprint, often partnering with local studios to create unique content that it distributed globally. This strategy still works, even more so in a more divided world. A new season of Korean hit-show Squid Game and the unexpected success of British produced Adolescence were among the new releases attracting and retaining subscribers. In addition, expansion into live streaming, interactive shows, and gaming created new income streams. New growth engines! Discount stores do well when consumers are worried. During Covid, Dollar General's stock went up by 60%, though it dropped sharply after the pandemic. Since then, a turnaround has increased efficiency, leveraging the considerable scale the company has. No other retailer can match its local footprint of 20,000 stores. That puts a Dollar General store within 5 miles of 75% of Americans. With the economy entering choppy waters, this combination of low prices and convenience sets Dollar General up for further growth. Warren Buffet likes three things when looking at potential investments: strong fundamentals, a unique competitive edge, and consistency. Since 2018 VeriSign has consistently reported exceptionally high net profit margins above 45%. Its competitive advantage is the monopoly it holds for .com and .net domain names. Consumers don't buy from VeriSign directly, but every time someone buys one of these domains, the company gets paid. Even better, it can increase prices—last September by it did so by 7%. VeriSign may be a boring company, but by providing vital plumbing for the digital economy, it is also likely to prevail in more turbulent times. Being in the right industry helps. Tobacco products are consumer staples, not usually affected by recessions. But Philip Morris has a strategy that puts it ahead of US competitor Altria (+16%). Crucially, Philip Morris has diversified more successfully—42% of its quarter one revenues came from smoke-free products. Compared to cigarettes this is a growing market. In addition, the exposure to tariffs is limited. Since the spin out of Altria in 2008 no cigarettes are sold in the US. Other products are but supply chains are regional, with ZYN nicotine pouches for the US market for example being produced in the country. Investors are always excited when companies are aligned with major trends. Few are in such a perfect spot as Palantir right now. It invested early in an AI platform. As CEO Alex Karp writes in the most recent letter to shareholders, at that time, 'many were skeptical, if not outright hostile.' And in an increasingly polarized world where many conflicts are fought online, Palantir's government security products are highly in demand. This isolated the company to the recent downward trends of tech stocks and outweighed concerns about how trade wars might affect the company. The analysis of the 10 best performing companies since inauguration is a timely reminder that even during difficult periods, there are usually winners as well as losers. The companies that benefit most are those with strong strategies that align with the needs of the situation and turn challenges into opportunities.
