Latest news with #economists
Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Job Growth Is Seen Moderating on Shifting Trade Policy
By and Craig Stirling Save The pace of US hiring probably slowed in May, with employers focusing on containing costs as households become a bit more guarded and businesses reconsidered investment plans against a backdrop of shifting trade policy. Economists see payrolls rising by 125,000 after job growth in March and April exceeded projections, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey. That would leave the average over the past three months tracking a still-solid 162,000. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.
Fast Company
10 hours ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Sellers or buyers housing market? Zillow's analysis for 250 metros
This interactive housing market map shows where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow. [Images: Lance Lambert] BY Listen to this Article More info 0:00 / 4:23 Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists have an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. A higher score indicates a hotter metro-level housing market where sellers have more power. A lower score indicates a colder metro-level housing market where buyers have more power. According to Zillow, a score of 70 or above is a strong sellers market, and a score from 55 to 69 is a sellers market. A score of 44 to 55 indicates a neutral market. A score from 28 to 44 reflects a buyers market, and a score of 27 or below is a strong buyers market. Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 for its April 2025 reading, published in May 2025, right on the border between a sellers market and a neutral market. That said, Zillow's reading varies significantly across the county. Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the hottest markets, where sellers have the most power, according to Zillow: Rochester, NY: 169 Buffalo, NY: 126 Charleston, WV: 107 Syracuse, NY: 105 Hartford, CT: 97 Albany, NY: 97 Manchester, NH: 93 Anchorage, AK: 86 Boston, MA: 85 Lansing, MI: 85 And these 10 are the coldest markets, where buyers have the most power, according to Zillow: Jackson, TN: 23 Macon, GA: 25 Gulfport, MS: 26 Brownsville, TX: 27 Naples, FL: 27 Cape Coral, FL: 30 Daphne, AL: 30 Panama City, FL: 30 Punta Gorda, FL: 31 Beaumont, TX: 33 5 takeaways on Zillow's latest assessment Directionally, there's a lot Zillow gets right. We believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most leverage—particularly around the Gulf. It also highlights areas where sellers have maintained, relatively speaking, some degree of control, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest. In ResiClub's view, Zillow is slightly overstating Northeast and Midwest tightness. While there are still some relatively competitive pockets in those regions, Zillow's model appears to exaggerate the strength of seller conditions. In the real world, many of these markets feel more neutral or only slightly tilted toward sellers—not full-blown 'strong sellers markets' as the model suggests. Zillow also appears to be overstating seller strength on the West Coast. Conditions on the West Coast have clearly softened over the past year, and Zillow's model doesn't fully reflect that shift. The softest housing markets right now are Southwest Florida and Central Texas. Based on our own housing market analysis, Florida, in particular, Southwest Florida currently stands out as the softest region in the country, followed by Central Texas markets such as Austin and San Antonio. Zillow's Market Heat Index is useful—but I believe ResiClub's monthly reports—especially our inventory analysis across +800 metros and +3,000 counties and our home price analysis across 800+ metros and 3,000+ counties —do a better job of keeping housing stakeholders ahead of market shifts and better informed on current market dynamics. What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2022 at the climax of the pandemic housing boom? Below is Zillow's April 2022 reading—published in May 2022. The final deadline for Fast Company's Brands That Matter Awards is this Friday, May 30, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply today. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Lance Lambert is the co-founder and editor of ResiClub, a media and research company dedicated to in-depth tracking, reporting, and analysis of regional housing markets. He has been publishing his reporting in Fast Company since 2023 More
Bloomberg
19 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
China's Factory Activity Contraction Eases After Trade War Truce
China's factory activity contracted at a slower rate in May after a reprieve in the tariff war with the US unclogged trade flows, even as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on the economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5, versus 49 in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Saturday. That matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
CBS News
a day ago
- Business
- CBS News
Key U.S inflation gauge shows price growth cooled in April with little sign of tariff impact
A key U.S. inflation gauge slowed last month as President Donald Trump's tariffs have yet to noticeably push up prices. Spending by Americans slowed despite rising incomes, potentially an early reaction to higher prices on some imported goods. Friday's report from the Commerce Department showed that consumer prices rose just 2.1% in April compared with a year earlier, down from 2.3% in March and the lowest since September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 2.5% from a year earlier, below the March figure of 2.7%, and the lowest in more than four years. Economists track core prices because they typically provide a better read on where inflation is headed. The figures show inflation is still declining from its post-pandemic spike, which reached the highest level in four decades in July 2022. Economists and some business executives have warned that prices will likely head higher as Trump's widespread tariffs take effect, though the timing and impact of those duties are now in doubt after they were struck down late Wednesday in court, only to be temporarily reinstated by a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. On a monthly basis, overall prices and core prices both increased just 0.1% from March to April. The cost of big-ticket manufactured goods rose a hefty 0.5%, though that increase was offset by a 0.1 decline in other goods, such as groceries. The cost of services rose just 0.1% from March to April. Americans cool off on spending The big increase in durable goods prices could reflect the early impact of tariffs. Americans also cut back their spending on longer-lasting factory goods in April, the report showed. Overall consumer spending — which includes spending on services — rose 0.2% in April from March, the report said, but that's down from a big 0.7% rise in March. The slowdown in spending could reflect some early caution on the part of consumers, economists said, in response to higher goods prices. It also suggests that some of the spending jump in March reflected consumers purchasing items like cars to get in front of the impact of tariffs. " This is unsurprising, given the implementation of tariffs," Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics said in a research note. "While tariffs may have started to weigh on consumers, this is far from a disaster," he added. "The pulling forward of consumer spending ahead of the tariff increases will continue to dampen household spending in the coming months, especially as they face higher prices and a softening labor market," Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said in an email. "We anticipate that the improved inflation trend will reverse in the second half of the year as companies are forced to begin passing along a portion of the increased tariffs in order to protect profit margins." Walmart executives said earlier this month that the retail giant would increase prices for many products in May and June to account for the tariffs, while electronics chain Best Buy's CEO Corie Barry said Thursday the company is increasing some prices as well because of the duties, as a "last resort." At the same time, incomes — before adjusting for inflation — rose a healthy 0.8% in April. Much of that gain reflected an increase in Social Security benefits as a result of the Social Security Fairness Act. The law signed in January by former President Biden, granted retroactive benefits for some retired teachers, fire fighters, and federal workers whose incomes previously weren't fully counted toward Social Security benefits because they have pensions. The inflation-fighters at the Federal Reserve said at their most recent meeting May 6-7 that inflation is still elevated, compared with their target of 2%. Fed officials, who focus more on core prices, broadly support keeping their key interest rate steady while they evaluate the impact of the tariffs on inflation and jobs. The court ruling last Wednesday said that most of Trump's tariffs were unlawful, including his duties on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as those on more than 50 other countries. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars were implemented under different laws and remain in place. But the duties were allowed to remain in effect while the Trump administration appeals the ruling against them. And administration officials say they will find other legal authorities, if needed, to implement the tariffs. As a result, what tariffs will end up in place and for how long remains highly uncertain.
CTV News
a day ago
- Business
- CTV News
StatCan releases Q1 GDP data amid U.S. tariff pressures
Statistics Canada unveils first-quarter economic performance, highlighting real GDP figures and the impact of U.S. tariffs on early 2025 growth.
