6 days ago
Will Ishiba's critics be able to garner enough support for a leadership race?
Weeks after the Liberal Democratic Party's poor performance in an Upper House election, it remains unclear if Shigeru Ishiba can resist rising calls for him to quit as party president and subsequently as prime minister.
His political survival likely hinges on whether a party leadership race will take place following the LDP's decision to have its election committee canvass the opinions of party members and prefectural chapters on the subject.
There is only one clear way to force an election midway through Ishiba's term as party president, which ends in September 2027 — the recall clause in the LDP presidential election rules. He could also resign voluntarily but so far, he has insisted that he will remain in office.
The focus now is on whether Ishiba's critics can gather enough support to meet the requirements of the recall clause. Here's what the rules say, and what can be expected in the coming weeks.
What are the rules?
Under Article 6, a presidential election can be held before the president's term ends if a majority of the LDP's parliamentary members and representatives of prefectural chapters call for it.
The LDP currently has 295 parliamentarians. The additional 47 prefectural representatives means there are a total of 342 eligible votes, making 172 the magic number needed for a presidential election to be held.
Who wants Ishiba out?
Ishiba is facing intense pressure from former members of a party faction once led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and another previously headed by former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, both of which have been disbanded. He is also feeling the heat from members of former Prime Minister Taro Aso's faction — the only group that remains active in the LDP.
The former Abe faction members in particular are Ishiba's most vocal critics. But they were also deeply involved in a slush funds scandal that is seen as one of the reasons for the LDP's Upper House election defeat last month.
Despite calls for him to step down, Ishiba insists he will remain in office. Those seeking to replace him, however, forced the party to hold a meeting of parliament members on Friday.
During the meeting, it was decided the party's election committee would seek the opinions of all party lawmakers and prefectural chapter representatives on whether or not to hold an election.
What are the prospects for a presidential election?
While much uncertainty remains, it is clear that not everyone wants to oust Ishiba. When the party's youth division met online with its counterparts in the prefectural chapters Tuesday, they were split on whether to hold an election or not.
'Everyone shared the opinion that the responsibility does not lie solely with the president. But there were also voices saying the party needs to start afresh,' said Yasutaka Nakasone, who heads the division.
An NHK poll released Tuesday showed 49% of respondents supported Ishiba's decision to continue while 40% were against it; 11% either said they were undecided or didn't respond.
Among LDP supporters who responded to the poll, 69% agreed with Ishiba's decision to stay on while 23% opposed it. There were also voices among supporters saying it was not just Ishiba's leadership but also the LDP's money scandals that led to the party's election defeat.
The NHK poll, conducted over the weekend, also showed an approval rate of 38% for the Ishiba Cabinet, a 7-percentage-point increase from July.
What are the next steps?
How and when the election committee asks party members and prefectural chapters for their opinions remain undecided, although media reports say the first meeting may be held as early as next week, after the Bon holiday is over.
The anti-Ishiba camp is expected to rally support for the leadership race during the holiday when they return to their constituencies.
Political tensions between the pro- and anti-Ishiba camps could also further complicate things when, at the end of the month, the party compiles a report on why it performed poorly in the July Upper House election. LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama has said that he will decide whether to remain or step down at that time.
Ishiba also said last week that he will decide on his course of action after listening to various opinions.
Information from Jiji added
