Latest news with #eurozone
Kuwait Times
8 hours ago
- Business
- Kuwait Times
ECB expected to hold rates as tariff uncertainty lingers
FRANKFURT: The European Central Bank is set to hold interest rates for the first time in almost a year when policymakers meet this week, despite concerns over the potential impact of higher US tariffs on the eurozone economy. The 26 members of the ECB's governing council will meet just over a week before an August 1 deadline set by US President Donald Trump for the imposition of his government's punitive tariffs. Trump has threatened to triple a basic tariff on imports from the EU to 30 percent if Brussels does not cut a deal by the end of the month, casting uncertainty over the future of transatlantic trade. But the ECB was expected to hold tight on rates instead of preempting the outcome of negotiations, pausing a series of cuts that goes back to September. The central bank has reduced its benchmark rate a total of eight times since June last year and at each of its last seven meetings, bringing it down to two percent. The rapid reduction in rates has come as eurozone inflation has fallen back towards the ECB's two-percent target from the double-digit highs seen in 2022. In June, eurozone inflation sat exactly on the ECB's target and was forecast by officials at the central bank to even out at two percent for the year. The ECB would 'almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged' at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, analysts from Italian bank UniCredit said in a note. 'The central bank will now want to have more clarity on the trade outlook before it considers adjusting its policy further,' they said. Despite the murky outlook, the ECB was in a 'good place' to deal with what comes next, executive board member Isabel Schnabel told financial news service Econostream Media this month. And with the euro area economy showing some signs of life despite Trump's threats on tariffs, 'the bar for another rate cut is very high', she said. Euro area factory output has grown four months in a row and the bloc's manufacturing PMI—a survey-based measure of manufacturer's overall health—rose in June to its highest level since August 2022. The improving picture painted by recent indicators could, however, be shattered were Trump to follow through with additional tariffs on top of steep existing levies on auto manufacturers, steel and aluminum. The saber-rattling from the Oval Office over trade—and Trump's repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve's independence—have otherwise had the impact of weakening the dollar against the euro. Were the euro to rise much further it would make matters 'much more complicated', ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg TV this month. A stronger single currency brought with it the risk of undershooting the ECB's inflation target by making imports cheaper and cooling the economy, while making European exports more expensive. Already, the ECB's forecasts published last month predict inflation to fall to 1.6 percent in 2026, before recovering to two percent the following year. A strong euro meant rate cuts later in the year were a matter of 'when and by how much and not if', ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said. The question would get 'more attention' at forthcoming ECB gatherings, Brzeski said, but the uncertainty over US tariffs argued in favor a 'wait-and-see approach'. Trump had upped the threatened level of tariffs on EU exports to the United States since the ECB's last meeting but where they would land after August 1 was uncertain. With the EU locked in talks with Washington to avoid higher tariffs, the necessary 'clarity is unlikely to emerge by next Thursday', UniCredit analysts said. A pause was likely before another cut later in the year, perhaps already in September, the first meeting after the summer, they said. –AFP
Qatar Tribune
a day ago
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
ECB expected to hold rates as tariff uncertainty lingers
Agencies The European Central Bank is set to hold interest rates for the first time in almost a year when policymakers meet this week, despite concerns over the potential impact of higher US tariffs on the eurozone economy. The 26 members of the ECB's governing council will meet just over a week before an August 1 deadline set by US President Donald Trump for the imposition of his government's punitive tariffs. Trump has threatened to triple a basic tariff on imports from the EU to 30 percent if Brussels does not cut a deal by the end of the month, casting uncertainty over the future of transatlantic trade. But the ECB was expected to hold tight on rates instead of preempting the outcome of negotiations, pausing a series of cuts that goes back to September. The central bank has reduced its benchmark rate a total of eight times since June last year and at each of its last seven meetings, bringing it down to two percent. The rapid reduction in rates has come as eurozone inflation has fallen back towards the ECB's two-percent target from the double-digit highs seen in 2022. In June, eurozone inflation sat exactly on the ECB's target and was forecast by officials at the central bank to even out at two percent for the year. The ECB would 'almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged' at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, analysts from Italian bank UniCredit said in a note. 'The central bank will now want to have more clarity on the trade outlook before it considers adjusting its policy further,' they said. Despite the murky outlook, the ECB was in a 'good place' to deal with what comes next, executive board member Isabel Schnabel told financial news service Econostream Media this month. And with the euro area economy showing some signs of life despite Trump's threats on tariffs, 'the bar for another rate cut is very high', she said. Euro area factory output has grown four months in a row and the bloc's manufacturing PMI—a survey-based measure of manufacturer's overall health—rose in June to its highest level since August 2022. The improving picture painted by recent indicators could, however, be shattered were Trump to follow through with additional tariffs on top of steep existing levies on auto manufacturers, steel and aluminum. The saber-rattling from the Oval Office over trade—and Trump's repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve's independence—have otherwise had the impact of weakening the dollar against the euro. Were the euro to rise much further it would make matters 'much more complicated', ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg TV this month. A stronger single currency brought with it the risk of undershooting the ECB's inflation target by making imports cheaper and cooling the economy, while making European exports more expensive. Already, the ECB's forecasts published last month predict inflation to fall to 1.6 percent in 2026, before recovering to two percent the following year. A strong euro meant rate cuts later in the year were a matter of 'when and by how much and not if', ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said. The question would get 'more attention' at forthcoming ECB gatherings, Brzeski said, but the uncertainty over US tariffs argued in favor a 'wait-and-see approach'. Trump had upped the threatened level of tariffs on EU exports to the United States since the ECB's last meeting but where they would land after August 1 was uncertain. With the EU locked in talks with Washington to avoid higher tariffs, the necessary 'clarity is unlikely to emerge by next Thursday', UniCredit analysts said. A pause was likely before another cut later in the year, perhaps already in September, the first meeting after the summer, they said.
Qatar Tribune
a day ago
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
Markets caught between earnings optimism, tariff fears
Agencies Stock markets largely rose on Monday, as traders focused on upbeat US corporate news, but President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline for ramped-up tariffs still weighed on European indices. New York extended its positive trajectory from the previous week, which had also pulled Asia higher. In Europe, London and Frankfurt rose, but Paris sank. 'As we start a new week, the focus is once again on tariffs and earnings reports,' said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB. Investors in US equities have been encouraged by forecast-beating results from major corporations, against only a modest uptick in inflation that suggested Trump's tariffs impact was not yet a worry. But analysts warned the picture could change if Trump made good on his threat to slap higher tariffs on major US trading partners the European Union, Canada and Mexico. Brooks and others stressed 'the clock is ticking' towards August 1, when a bruising US-EU trade war could be unleashed. Brussels has readied reprisals against a range of US imports—including on Boeing planes and bourbon—should no breakthrough come in its negotiations with Washington. Trump has threatened 30-percent tariffs on EU goods, which would rise further if Brussels retaliated. 'The upcoming US tariff deadline, which is due to kick in a week this Friday, continues to cast a long shadow, particularly across the EU,' said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS News over the weekend he was 'confident' a trade deal would be reached with the EU. But Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said that any agreement would likely be 'only a framework deal... requiring further negotiations on the details'. 'Realistically, there is a high probability that uncertainty will persist beyond August 1,' he said. That uncertainty will be part of the European Central Bank's calculus as it meets this week. Expectations are for it to hold eurozone interest rates steady, pausing a long cycle of easing. Asia's equities advance was led by Hong Kong and came after strong earnings from Taiwanese chip giant TSMC and news that US titan Nvidia will be allowed to export key semiconductors to China. The yen strengthened against the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to stay on even after his ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house in elections on Sunday. Ishiba, too, is struggling to reach a trade deal with Trump, who has threatened tariffs of 25 percent on goods from Japan.
Al Etihad
2 days ago
- Business
- Al Etihad
Markets caught between earnings optimism and tariff fears
21 July 2025 20:44 LONDON (AFP)Stock markets largely rose on Monday, as traders focused on upbeat US corporate news, but President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline for ramped-up tariffs still weighed on European York extended its positive trajectory from the previous week, which had also pulled Asia Europe, London and Frankfurt rose, but Paris sank.'As we start a new week, the focus is once again on tariffs and earnings reports,' said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group in US equities have been encouraged by forecast-beating results from major corporations, against only a modest uptick in inflation that suggested tariffs impact was not yet a uncertainty will be part of the European Central Bank's calculation as it meets this week. Expectations are for it to hold eurozone interest rates steady, pausing a long cycle of equities advance was led by Hong Kong and came after strong earnings from Taiwanese chip giant TSMC and news that US titan Nvidia will be allowed to export key semiconductors to yen strengthened against the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to stay on even after his ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house in elections on company news, Jeep maker Stellantis said it suffered a massive, 2.3-billion-euro ($2.7-billion) net loss in the first half of this year, on the back of slumping North America sales and partly from 'the early effects of US tariffs.'It shares, which have lost more than a third of their value since the start of the year, dipped early on Monday before reversing course and ending up. Oil prices receded on worries of declining global trade.
Khaleej Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
ECB expected to hold rates as Trump tariff uncertainty lingers
The European Central Bank is set to hold interest rates for the first time in almost a year when policymakers meet this week, despite concerns over the potential impact of higher US tariffs on the eurozone economy. The 26 members of the ECB's governing council will meet just over a week before an August 1 deadline set by US President Donald Trump for the imposition of his government's punitive tariffs. Trump has threatened to triple a basic tariff on imports from the EU to 30 percent if Brussels does not cut a deal by the end of the month, casting uncertainty over the future of transatlantic trade. But the ECB was expected to hold tight on rates instead of preempting the outcome of negotiations, pausing a series of cuts that goes back to September. The central bank has reduced its benchmark rate a total of eight times since June last year and at each of its last seven meetings, bringing it down to two per cent. The rapid reduction in rates has come as eurozone inflation has fallen back towards the ECB's two-percent target from the double-digit highs seen in 2022. In June, eurozone inflation sat exactly on the ECB's target and was forecast by officials at the central bank to even out at two percent for the year. 'More clarity' The ECB would "almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged" at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, analysts from Italian bank UniCredit said in a note. "The central bank will now want to have more clarity on the trade outlook before it considers adjusting its policy further," they said. Despite the murky outlook, the ECB was in a "good place" to deal with what comes next, executive board member Isabel Schnabel told financial news service Econostream Media this month. And with the euro area economy showing some signs of life despite Trump's threats on tariffs, "the bar for another rate cut is very high", she said. Euro area factory output has grown four months in a row and the bloc's manufacturing PMI -- a survey-based measure of manufacturer's overall health -- rose in June to its highest level since August 2022. The improving picture painted by recent indicators could, however, be shattered were Trump to follow through with additional tariffs on top of steep existing levies on auto manufacturers, steel and aluminium. Euro strength The sabre-rattling from the Oval Office over trade -- and Trump's repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve's independence -- have otherwise had the impact of weakening the dollar against the euro. Were the euro to rise much further it would make matters "much more complicated", ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg TV this month. A stronger single currency brought with it the risk of undershooting the ECB's inflation target by making imports cheaper and cooling the economy, while making European exports more expensive. Already, the ECB's forecasts published last month predict inflation to fall to 1.6 percent in 2026, before recovering to two percent the following year. A strong euro meant rate cuts later in the year were a matter of "when and by how much and not if", ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said. The question would get "more attention" at forthcoming ECB gatherings, Brzeski said, but the uncertainty over US tariffs argued in favour a "wait-and-see approach". Trump had upped the threatened level of tariffs on EU exports to the United States since the ECB's last meeting but where they would land after August 1 was uncertain. With the EU locked in talks with Washington to avoid higher tariffs, the necessary "clarity is unlikely to emerge by next Thursday", UniCredit analysts said. A pause was likely before another cut later in the year, perhaps already in September, the first meeting after the summer, they said.
