Latest news with #ex-Japan
Bloomberg
18 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Rupiah to Consolidate Before Further Gains, Citi Strategist Says
The Indonesian rupiah's recent gains are set to pause in the coming month before advancing to levels last seen in December, according to the currency's top forecaster. Emerging market currencies, especially those that are high-yielding, tend to weaken for various reasons in August, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan for Citigroup Inc. By the end of the year, the strategist forecasts the rupiah to rally almost 2% against the dollar.
Biz Bahrain
2 days ago
- Business
- Biz Bahrain
Standard Chartered: Weak Dollar to Unlock Opportunities in Emerging Markets and Global Equities
Standard Chartered announced its Global Market Outlook for the second half of 2025, projecting a constructive but volatile environment for investors worldwide. The Bank sees significant implications for Middle East investors, driven by expectations of a softer US dollar, resilient global equity markets and improving prospects for emerging-market assets. The report highlights that Global macro conditions remain mixed. In the United States, growth continues to be supported by resilient consumption and fiscal stimulus, though trade and policy uncertainty may temper momentum in the second half of the year. In Europe, fiscal easing increasingly offers support, but structural challenges persist while China's outlook is stabilising on the back of targeted stimulus and improving retail activity. Meanwhile, growth in India and ASEAN is expected to remain well-supported. Against this backdrop, the report outlines an investment strategy reflecting evolving risks and opportunities. We expect the US dollar to weaken over the next 6 to 12 months and have accordingly upgraded Asia (ex-Japan) equities and Emerging Market (EM) local-currency bonds to Overweight. Global equities also remain an Overweight position across portfolios, supported by healthy earnings, easing trade tensions, and controlled inflation (so far). Commenting on the report, Dr. Boutros Klink, CEO, Standard Chartered Bahrain, said: 'As global markets transition into a new phase, investors in Bahrain and the wider Middle East are well-positioned to capitalise on emerging opportunities. A weaker dollar historically supports returns across risk assets, particularly in emerging markets, which have long been core components of regional portfolios.' He added: 'This outlook underscores a critical moment for investors in the region. As the global environment adjusts to weak dollar dynamics, shifting trade policies, and diverging central bank actions, investors in our region have an opportunity to reposition portfolios with greater international diversification. Asset classes such as emerging market bonds and equities across major regions (including non-US equities) are well-placed to help investors navigate volatility, capture income, and enhance portfolio resilience in today's shifting landscape.' In line with these themes, the report maintains a preference for USD-denominated bonds in the 5–7-year maturity range, citing them as the most attractive in terms of risk-adjusted returns, particularly as yields begin to ease from current levels. Meanwhile, Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds have been downgraded to Underweight due to tight yield premiums and slower inflows. Alternative investments are also in focus, with the Bank highlighting gold as a core allocation, supported by strong central bank demand and its role as a diversifier when bonds offer less downside protection.
BusinessToday
3 days ago
- Business
- BusinessToday
Hong Kong Stocks Rally As Hang Seng Hits Multi-Year High
Hong Kong shares climbed sharply this week, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) surging to its highest level since early 2022, lifted by broad-based sector gains and renewed investor optimism across Asia. The HSI advanced from around 24,280 on July 14 to close at 24,825.66 on July 18, marking a robust 2.2% weekly gain. The rally mirrored upbeat sentiment in regional markets, as the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index also hit a multi-year high, buoyed by strong US economic data and positive corporate earnings. All sectors contributed to the advance, with Chinese blue-chip stocks leading gains. Investors shrugged off lingering tariff concerns and focused on improving macro signals from the US and China. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) also announced major infrastructure updates, including a proposal to shorten the equities settlement cycle from T+2 to T+1, aiming for implementation by 2027. This move aligns with global financial hubs and aims to reduce systemic risks. HKEX also launched a 30-year RMB interest rate swap under Northbound Swap Connect and introduced a new order routing service on its Integrated Fund Platform, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as a key cross-border financial centre. Outlook: With momentum building and HIS at a multi-year high, investors are eyeing this week's US macroeconomic data and developments in China's property sector for further direction. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic but note that volatility could return on shifting global trade and interest rate dynamics. Related
Bangkok Post
5 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Investors urged to buy gold as price surges
DBS Vickers Securities recommends investors increase their exposure to gold and reduce their allocation of government bonds from developed economies, predicting the bullion price will hit US$3,765 an ounce by the fourth quarter of this year. Wey Fook Hou, chief investment officer at DBS Bank, noted that the first 100 days of US President Donald Trump's second term sent shockwaves across global markets, especially by escalating a global tariff war. While these moves aim to reposition the US geopolitically, ongoing policy uncertainty is raising the risk premium on American financial assets. In addition, the recent passage of sweeping tax reforms has intensified worries about the long-term fiscal stability of the US. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.9 trillion this year, with debt levels rising to 118% of GDP by 2035. Moody's downgrade of US sovereign credit to Aa1, with 30-year bond yields exceeding 5%, underscores rising investor anxiety over the sustainability of US fiscal policy. Trump's "beautiful tariff war" has two main objectives, first to strategically counter China's influence, and also to generate revenue to address mounting national insolvency. "However, even with an aggressive 20% universal import tariff, the net revenue gain after dynamic economic effects would be just $185.2 billion, insufficient even to cover federal interest payments," Mr Wey noted. These fiscal constraints have prompted DBS to revise its investment strategy, he said. For equities, the bank has maintained a neutral stance overall, with expected performance divergence across regions and sectors. Belief in US technology stocks has also stayed intact, with services favoured over goods-based sectors. Meanwhile DBS suggests investors increase their allocation to European and Asia ex-Japan equities, citing fiscal stimulus, attractive dividend yields, and valuation discounts versus developed markets. For fixed income, developed market government bonds were downgraded to neutral amid persistent inflation and fiscal strain. DBS favours high-quality credit with A or BBB ratings, and has adopted a "duration barbell" strategy, focusing on those with 2–3 year and 7–10 year maturities, capital securities, and short-duration high-quality debts. DBS is overweight on alternative assets, especially gold, with a price target of $3,765 an ounce by this year's fourth quarter. The bank also recommends income-generating private equity, including infrastructure, as "a source of resilient returns in a volatile environment". "Investors tracking fiscal risks are expected to shift further away from US and Japanese assets. As capital diversifies from dollar-denominated holdings, Asian local currency bonds are emerging as beneficiaries," Mr Wey said. The US dollar is likely to continue weakening, pressured by inconsistent and controversial policies under the Trump administration. As a result, alternative safe-haven currencies are expected to gain favour, added Mr Wey. Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul, head of research at DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand), expects Thailand's GDP to grow just 1.8% in 2026 if US tariffs are 18%-20%, with a Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index estimate of 1,300 points. However, if tariffs stay elevated at 36%, growth could slow to just 1%, and the SET index target would be adjusted, she said. Despite macro challenges, selected Thai sectors remain attractive, including hospitals and telecommunications. The baht is projected to appreciate slightly to 32.8 baht against the greenback this year, and to 32 baht to the dollar in 2026. The brokerage expects Thai interest rates to be cut once or twice this year, with another cut likely in 2026. "Domestic political developments, especially in August and September, as well as US tariff policy, will have a significant impact on investment sentiment," Ms Chanpen noted.
The Sun
5 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
StanChart expects US dollar to weaken in H2
KUALA LUMPUR: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the next six to 12 months, and Standard Chartered Wealth Solutions Chief Investment Office (CIO) outlines a constructive, albeit volatile second half of 2025 in its recently published Global Market Outlook report. The bank views the weakening greenback outlook as a key market driver alongside an anticipated policy easing and supportive global conditions. Against this backdrop, the bank has identified three key themes for investors to consider during the second half of the year, namely an overweight position in global equities, with a tilt towards Asia ex-Japan. The bank also highlighted a preference for US dollar bonds with maturities of 5 to 7 years, as well as emerging market (EM) local currency bonds, citing the recent weakness of the US dollar as a key factor driving this strategy. Gold and alternative investment strategies are seen as attractive options for enhancing portfolio diversification. Taking into consideration the end of US' 90-day tariff pause in July, as well as global geopolitical conflicts, the bank also identified several risks that merit close attention and will most likely result in temporary volatility. Standard Chartered noted that key risks to the global economic outlook include a sustained rise in trade tariffs, a sharp increase in oil prices driven by geopolitical events, and a sudden decline in US economic data that could point toward a potential recession. Standard Chartered Malaysia head of wealth and retail banking Harmander Mahal said the second quarter marked a pivotal moment for investors. 'Despite ongoing global trade shifts and geopolitical tensions, global equities remained robust, rising approximately 8 -10% quarter-to-date. 'This reflects sustained investor confidence and a re-acceleration in risk appetite, particularly across Asia, where emerging markets benefited from stronger capital inflows and currency tailwinds. 'Malaysia continues to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainty, with our 2025 growth forecast maintained at 4.2% and the ringgit emerging as the region's better-performing currencies against the US dollar – signalling strong investment sentiment,' he said. In addition to its leadership role as Asean Chair 2025, Harmander said Malaysia is well-positioned to unlock further growth opportunities based on the bank's outlook for the year, as structural reforms take shape and strategic initiatives, such as the Special Economic Zones gain momentum.
