Latest news with #floodrisk

RNZ News
a day ago
- Climate
- RNZ News
Experts call for better info to help evaluate flood risks
environment policy 27 minutes ago An expert panel has called for more and better information to help people evaluate flood risk on properties. Climate Change Correspondent Eloise Gibson reports.

RNZ News
3 days ago
- Business
- RNZ News
Flood victims will not be on their own, says chair of contentious report
There will always be a role for the government in alleviating hardship, says the head of a panel that looked at how the government should adapt to climate change. Photo: RNZ The chair of the panel behind a contentious report on how the government should adapt to climate change says its authors never meant that flood victims should get no help from the taxpayer. The report was criticised for leaving people to manage their own flood risk after a transition phase of possibly about 20 years. But Matt Whineray says there will always be a role for the government in alleviating hardship, beyond the initial disaster response. "I think the government will always have a role in alleviating hardship - that's my view and that's the discussion we had at the reference group - but most critically it's not linked to the property value." Whineray said councils and central government could not keep buying properties at market rates when they were not suitable for rebuilding and were not covered by private insurance. He cited overseas examples of homes being rebuilt in the same place six times, with the government as the default insurer. Whineray said that did not mean people should be left on their own, even after a cut off date, and even after homeowners have been supplied with the best available risk information. He said currently there was an unofficial but powerful assumption that people will be compensated to their full pre-flood value - an expensive proposition for tax- and/or rate-payers, as climate change and poor development decisions increase the number of ruined homes. But Whineray said there were other ways to supply compensation, like capping the amount people can get for relocation assistance. "It's just how you determine how you do that and step away from a world where you say someone gets to get $5 million because because that's what they thought it was worth the day before the event happened. "There will be an impact (on property prices)," he said. "If you moved directly to a world where there is no automatic buyout, you have that abruptness. The idea of the transition period is to smooth the impact. "At some the point in the future where the government is no longer underwriting those property values, that will have been reflected by the market." Canterbury University Professor and climate scientist Dave Frame has been studying how much worse extreme events are getting on a hotter planet, and how much worse they might be expected to get in different parts of the country. He said he understood why some experts wanted a fund for property buyouts, and he also understood why others were wary of promising guaranteed compensation. "Often the people who are most adept at tapping into those funds are the kind of people who've been climate sceptics their whole life, brought a low lying property and now want to exit without paying a bill. It's the classic moral hazard," he said. "It's actually a really subtle one for the government to find a way of exercising prudent judgement, like it seems to me to be pretty clear that the people up Esk Valley weren't being unduly risky in in their behaviour." Professor Jonathan Boston of Victoria UNiversity led a previous report on how to stage a planned exit from the most risky areas. That report said financial help was needed to avoid worsening inequality and keep communities functioning, but the primary goal should not be restoring people's full wealth. Boston agreed that offering uncapped compensation or government insurance encouraged people to stay (and build) in places they should not, and said councils often struggled to stop them. But he said many people would not have the money to leave on their own, without some government assistance. "Some people will have mortgages and they run the risk of being left without any equity, in fact in debt, other people might not have a mortgage but the property might be unsaleable so they have no means of purchasing another property... they are in what a colleague has called property purgatory." Boston said he found it mind boggling that society would allow people with kids or serious disabilities to stay in harm's way, as councils withdrew sewage, water and road maintenance. He did not believe the decision to exit can be left to individual choice, even once people have access better access to risk information. "With sea level rise, more powerful storms and so on, if you look out decades and indeed centuries fro now, tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of properties in New Zealand are going to be vulnerable to one kind of flooding or another, or other hazards, and if there's no assistance to help people move, well it's pretty clear that we're going to have a hell of a mess." The environment ministry is working on options to present to the government, on how to move from today's ad hoc regime to something more financially sustainable. What that looks like and who pays still is not clear. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Heavy rain threatens flash flooding for millions across much of the US
Tens of millions of people are at risk of dangerous flash floods in pockets of nearly every region of the contiguous United States Friday, as the nation's summer of flooding continues. As summer heat starts to peak, July has seen the exact conditions needed for flooding rain. An abundance of incredibly moist, humid air is fueling a majority of Friday's flood risk, giving storms the potential to dump very heavy, overwhelming rain in a short period of time. Here's what to expect in the main areas at risk. 'Worst-case scenario' flash flood potential in the East, slow-moving storms in the Midwest A stalled storm front draped across more than half a dozen states from Oklahoma to Virginia could dump multiple rounds of rain and touch off significant flash flooding Friday. A Level 3 of 4 flooding rain threat is in place for parts of northern Virginia and northeastern West Virginia, with Level 2 of 4 risks covering portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley and Midwest, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Many places in these risk areas could see an inch or two of rain – especially from the afternoon on – but some could record more, which is a concerning possibility given how wet the ground already is in some areas. The Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley have been hit by round after round of soaking rain this summer, leaving the soil less able to absorb additional rain and area waterways swollen. The West Virginia-Virginia border area has been hit particularly hard this summer and the National Weather Service is highlighting the potential for very heavy rain on Friday that could dump upwards of 5 inches there in a short time. If that happens, it would equate to a 1-in-100 year rainfall event. 'These extreme amounts won't be widespread and might not occur, but the potential is definitely there for worst-case scenario flash flooding,' the NWS warned. Petersburg, Virginia - just south of Richmond – has also been dealing with severe flooding in recent days and could get more soaking rain Friday. The city was under a flash flood emergency, the most severe flood warning, on Monday night as floodwater rose quickly. Slow-moving, heavy storms are also expected Friday afternoon in the Midwest before some severe thunderstorms potentially develop and keep storms from loitering around. Heavy rain broke daily rainfall records in parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas and Missouri on Thursday. Drenching storms dumped up to 9 inches of rain and prompted early morning flash flooding along the Kansas-Missouri border, including the Kansas City metro area, Thursday. A separate round of storms late Thursday night in Arkansas flooded roads and triggered multiple water rescues. Overwhelming rainfall is becoming more prevalent due to climate change, as rising global temperatures drive weather toward extremes. Hourly rainfall rates have grown heavier in nearly 90% of large US cities since 1970, according to a study from the nonprofit research group Climate Central. More soaking rain targets the Gulf Coast Storms have dropped several inches of rain in southern Louisiana since Wednesday night even as a would-be tropical threat wasn't able to get its act together. So far, the heaviest – up to 12 inches – has mainly fallen over wetlands in the south-central part of the state that are able to absorb excess rain. A Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain is place Friday from the Florida Panhandle to eastern Texas as the lingering area of stormy weather brings more rounds of rain during the day after a slight lull overnight. An additional 1 to 4 inches of rain is possible through Friday along the coast, with the NWS warning of isolated pockets of up to 8 inches in areas caught under multiple rounds of heavy storms. Flood-prone town under threat again Heavy storms could trigger flash flooding Friday across parts of the Southwest, Rockies and Nevada, especially over wildfire burn scars and flood-prone canyon or valley areas. The Chiricahua Mountains in Arizona and the flood-weary town of Ruidoso, New Mexico, are among the areas under a Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain. Ruidoso was the site of deadly flooding last week that killed three people, including two children. The town dealt with another round of dangerous flooding on Thursday after nearly an inch of rain fell during afternoon thunderstorms. Authorities conducted three swift water rescues Thursday: One of the people rescued was trapped in a trailer near Ruidoso, while another was taken to safety from nearby Ruidoso Downs, according to CNN affiliate KOAT. All three were unharmed. No deaths have been reported as of early Friday, CNN affiliate KFOX said. Any quick burst of rain Friday can almost instantly cause issues for the area given the recent rainfall and how damaged the ground still is after its 2024 wildfires. Burned ground cannot properly absorb water, which creates immediate runoff.


CNN
5 days ago
- Science
- CNN
Trump admin to proceed with groundbreaking flash flood risk database, reversing course after media reports
Storms Climate change Donald Trump Federal agenciesFacebookTweetLink Follow The Trump administration has changed course and is moving ahead with work to develop a new database that would provide Americans with precise estimates of their flash flood risk in a warming world, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration official and an internal NOAA email seen by CNN that was sent Friday morning. The administration had paused work on the portion of the database, known as Atlas 15, that is designed to show how a warming world is amplifying flood risks. The database would be the first such resource to take this into account and would have applications for everyone from civil engineers to prospective homeowners. After reporting by CNN and the Washington Post this week and following discussions between NOAA leadership and Commerce Department officials, NOAA received permission to move forward with both parts of the analysis through fiscal year 2026, the official said. As CNN previously reported, the pause came during a summer of deadly flash floods, including the disastrous flash flood event in Texas on the night of July 4 that killed at least 130 people. CNN has contacted NOAA for comment. Prev Next Atlas 15 would replace the outdated database of precipitation frequency estimates, known as Atlas 14, that does not take climate change to date into account, let alone future warming. Global warming is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events, yet US infrastructure is currently designed based on Atlas 14's outdated information about the size and frequency of 100-year precipitation events. In other words, designers and builders of infrastructure in this country conduct their work with the notion that the worst rainfall events are occurring less frequently and are less severe than they are. The first phase of Atlas 15 updates the precipitation frequency estimates across the country but does not include climate change projections. That volume is slated to come out later this year and had not hit roadblocks. The second phase of Atlas 15, whose contracts were paused until Friday, is slated to come out in 2026. Contracts for work on Atlas 15 had been paused for about a month, raising suspicions that the project was in jeopardy due to its climate change content. Recently, the Trump administration has taken down the website, disbanded experts working on a congressionally-mandated national climate assessment and pursued other actions to stifle climate science research. When combined, the two volumes would comprise a national, interactive database of precipitation frequency estimates, including future projections, such as the statistical likelihood of a 100-year rainfall event at a particular spot each year. (A 100-year rainfall event is one that is so intense, it is only expected to occur once every 100 years on average.) The database will have information on how the likelihood and severity of 100-year rainfall events, as well as even rarer events – such as 1,000-year rainstorms, will shift depending on how much the planet warms during the next several decades. Atlas 15 is supposed to move NOAA, and those who depend on the agency, from an outdated assumption that the climate of today is roughly equivalent to that of several decades ago to a recognition that precipitation extremes are in the process of changing due largely to the burning of fossil fuels for energy and transportation. A pilot phase of Atlas 15, containing present day precipitation risk estimates solely for the state of Montana was released last year. It also shows how rainfall rates for 100-year events could increase with continued global warming. The Montana estimates include projections for precipitation frequency estimates at 3 degrees Celsius of global warming as well as 1.5 degrees of warming. The world has already warmed by at least 1.2 degrees.


CNN
5 days ago
- Science
- CNN
Trump admin to proceed with groundbreaking flash flood risk database, reversing course after media reports
The Trump administration has changed course and is moving ahead with work to develop a new database that would provide Americans with precise estimates of their flash flood risk in a warming world, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration official and an internal NOAA email seen by CNN that was sent Friday morning. The administration had paused work on the portion of the database, known as Atlas 15, that is designed to show how a warming world is amplifying flood risks. The database would be the first such resource to take this into account and would have applications for everyone from civil engineers to prospective homeowners. After reporting by CNN and the Washington Post this week and following discussions between NOAA leadership and Commerce Department officials, NOAA received permission to move forward with both parts of the analysis through fiscal year 2026, the official said. As CNN previously reported, the pause came during a summer of deadly flash floods, including the disastrous flash flood event in Texas on the night of July 4 that killed at least 130 people. CNN has contacted NOAA for comment. Prev Next Atlas 15 would replace the outdated database of precipitation frequency estimates, known as Atlas 14, that does not take climate change to date into account, let alone future warming. Global warming is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events, yet US infrastructure is currently designed based on Atlas 14's outdated information about the size and frequency of 100-year precipitation events. In other words, designers and builders of infrastructure in this country conduct their work with the notion that the worst rainfall events are occurring less frequently and are less severe than they are. The first phase of Atlas 15 updates the precipitation frequency estimates across the country but does not include climate change projections. That volume is slated to come out later this year and had not hit roadblocks. The second phase of Atlas 15, whose contracts were paused until Friday, is slated to come out in 2026. Contracts for work on Atlas 15 had been paused for about a month, raising suspicions that the project was in jeopardy due to its climate change content. Recently, the Trump administration has taken down the website, disbanded experts working on a congressionally-mandated national climate assessment and pursued other actions to stifle climate science research. When combined, the two volumes would comprise a national, interactive database of precipitation frequency estimates, including future projections, such as the statistical likelihood of a 100-year rainfall event at a particular spot each year. (A 100-year rainfall event is one that is so intense, it is only expected to occur once every 100 years on average.) The database will have information on how the likelihood and severity of 100-year rainfall events, as well as even rarer events – such as 1,000-year rainstorms, will shift depending on how much the planet warms during the next several decades. Atlas 15 is supposed to move NOAA, and those who depend on the agency, from an outdated assumption that the climate of today is roughly equivalent to that of several decades ago to a recognition that precipitation extremes are in the process of changing due largely to the burning of fossil fuels for energy and transportation. A pilot phase of Atlas 15, containing present day precipitation risk estimates solely for the state of Montana was released last year. It also shows how rainfall rates for 100-year events could increase with continued global warming. The Montana estimates include projections for precipitation frequency estimates at 3 degrees Celsius of global warming as well as 1.5 degrees of warming. The world has already warmed by at least 1.2 degrees.