Latest news with #geopolitical
Forbes
12 hours ago
- Politics
- Forbes
When Silence Speaks: The Doctrine Of Communication By Conduct
Majeed Javdani is a Board Member of Mercator Group and an internationally recognized practitioner in law and business. In a world increasingly saturated with instant messages, press releases and diplomatic declarations, it is tempting to assume that international relations are shaped by what is said. Yet, seasoned observers of geopolitical strategy understand a deeper, subtler truth: What is done often speaks more clearly than what is said. This brings us to a principle that sits quietly at the center of international law and diplomacy—communication by conduct. This mode of interaction operates beneath the surface of formal negotiation. It bypasses the volatility of words and ideological assertions, relying instead on actions—restrained, repeated or intentionally withheld—to convey strategic intentions. In environments where language has become too loaded or relationships too adversarial for open dialogue, conduct becomes the lingua franca of diplomacy. The doctrine of communication by conduct is not merely a theoretical construct. It is rooted in the foundational logic of international law itself, specifically in the principle of customary law. Under this doctrine, consistent and general state practice, when coupled with a sense of legal obligation, crystallizes into binding legal norms. This is not just about precedent—it is about how behavior builds legitimacy. States do not need to sign a treaty to show compliance with an international norm; often, they simply need to behave in a way that others interpret as recognition of that norm. This behavioral logic extends into the diplomatic realm. Silence, when paired with inaction or deliberate moderation, is never neutral in global politics. It is often read, rightly or wrongly, as an intentional message. And it is this interpretive space—where conduct becomes legible as policy—that the doctrine operates most powerfully. Unlike strategic ambiguity, which aims to obscure intentions to gain leverage, communication by conduct is inherently about clarity—albeit a clarity achieved through implication, not assertion. It creates space for de-escalation, recalibration and quiet coordination, all without triggering the political costs of formal declarations or public alignment. It enables rival actors to feel each other out without committing to an irreversible path. In this respect, it is less of a diplomatic tool and more of a diplomatic environment—an atmosphere in which policy is shaped through restraint, repetition and refusal. One key reason communication by conduct remains durable in the practice of statecraft is because it transcends language and ideology. It relies not on what a state claims to value, but on what it demonstrably prioritizes. In moments of crisis or strategic recalibration, when explicit engagement may be too risky or politically untenable, conduct becomes the only available channel for credible signaling. The key metric is not volume, but consistency. What matters is whether a pattern of behavior emerges that others can interpret and anticipate. This raises the question of interpretation. After all, conduct, unlike contractual language, does not define itself. It must be read, and all readings are contextual. In this ambiguity lies both the strength and vulnerability of the doctrine. On one hand, it allows states to test strategic shifts in a deniable format; on the other, it opens the door to misinterpretation, escalation or diplomatic paralysis. This interpretive complexity is why communication by conduct must be viewed as a layered process, not a one-off signal. One action may be ambiguous; 10 consistent actions begin to look like a message. And when that consistency aligns with a broader policy trend or institutional adjustment, it becomes increasingly difficult to ignore its strategic meaning. In many ways, the doctrine is a counterbalance to the performance of diplomacy. Whereas formal diplomacy operates in the spotlight—with joint statements, red-carpet visits and sound bites—communication by conduct happens in the shadows. It is quiet, cumulative and often retroactively understood. But this does not make it passive. On the contrary, it requires intention, discipline and a long-term strategic view. It is the diplomacy of the serious. This framework is particularly relevant in an age where the tools of coercion and persuasion are expanding beyond the battlefield and negotiation table. Sanctions, supply chain disruptions, regulatory delays or even the withholding of military or economic support are all actions that speak volumes—whether or not anyone is speaking. And when such conduct is repeated across time, interpreted consistently by observers and unchallenged by the international community, it begins to constitute a normative message. What this means for business leaders, policymakers and international observers is straightforward: Watching what states do is often more instructive than listening to what they say. This does not mean that words are irrelevant. Rather, it means that conduct supplies the evidentiary base that gives meaning to language. A diplomatic statement, no matter how eloquent, must be supported by action to carry weight. Without such alignment, rhetoric becomes noise. This understanding also has practical implications for interpreting strategic risk and opportunity. Investors looking at foreign markets, legal advisors evaluating compliance landscapes and analysts tracking geopolitical trends would all benefit from applying the lens of communication by conduct. When a state begins quietly relaxing enforcement on a domestic regulation, or when it abstains from retaliation in the face of provocation, these are not anomalies—they are signals. Importantly, communication by conduct does not necessarily aim for resolution. It often precedes negotiation, conditions it or exists alongside it. It may mark the beginning of a strategic thaw or simply serve as a stabilizing force in a volatile situation. Either way, it creates room. And in diplomacy, room is everything—room to think, adjust and reposition without losing face or triggering escalation. The challenge, of course, lies in ensuring that such communication is recognized, interpreted accurately and reciprocated in kind. This requires not only diplomatic literacy but also the institutional memory to track patterns, connect signals and identify when conduct begins to cohere into policy. It also requires restraint: the willingness to allow ambiguity when clarity would be counterproductive. In a world where overcommunication often leads to confusion and escalation, conduct reminds us that sometimes the most powerful statements are made without words. For those who know how to read them, these statements are never silent. Forbes Communications Council is an invitation-only community for executives in successful public relations, media strategy, creative and advertising agencies. Do I qualify?
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-China stake in CK Hutchison port sale could ease Beijing pressure but US geopolitical risks remain
By James Pomfret, Clare Jim and Davide Barbuscia HONG KONG/NEW YORK (Reuters) -The proposed inclusion of Chinese shipping giant COSCO in Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison's contentious global ports sale is a potential win for Beijing in a strategic sector, but the deal is far from final and could face resistance from Washington, sources and analysts say. Since the deal was announced on March 4 to sell 43 of CK Hutchison's ports in 23 countries, including two along the Panama Canal, to a consortium led by U.S. firm BlackRock, and Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte's family-run shipping company MSC, it has sparked a firestorm of criticism from China. While the U.S. government might oppose the inclusion of state-run COSCO over perceived geopolitical risks posed by Chinese influence, bringing in the shipping giant could provide a more level playing field rather than one company being dominant, said a person with knowledge of the deal. The complex deal would require approval from around 50 jurisdictions involved, and it would take at least two years for the process to be completed, sources and analysts said. There was no immediate response from the White House, COSCO and CK Hutchison to Reuters' requests for comment. At a time of festering global trade tensions between China and the U.S., the deal showcases the growing rivalry between both sides for maritime influence in the strategic commercial shipping sector that has been dominated by China in recent decades. U.S. President Donald Trump had earlier called for the removal of Chinese ownership in the Panama Canal - now used for more than 40% of U.S. container traffic valued at $270 billion annually. Following months of pressure from Beijing, including Chinese state media lambasting the move as a betrayal, and various Chinese government departments saying they would conduct a legal review, CK Hutchison announced on July 28 that a Chinese investor was being courted. It also said changes to the composition of the consortium and structure of the transaction would be necessary to secure regulatory approval. Two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters the investor was COSCO - a shipping and ports conglomerate that is now one of the world's dominant, vertically integrated marine transportation firms. While any stake by COSCO is not yet clear, a triparty agreement with BlackRock and MSC would alleviate China's national security concerns and have its blessing, the sources said. "The potential acquisition of Hutchison Ports is driven by the strategic need to secure key port resources amid global competition and U.S.-China tensions," JPMorgan wrote in a research report. The report also noted that while the inclusion of COSCO would "relieve some concerns by the Chinese government, thus boosting the likelihood of a green-light scenario", not all ports in the original agreement might be included. COSCO is requesting a bigger stake while the other parties in the consortium are keen to keep it a minority, the sources said. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters on Monday in response to a question on the deal that Beijing "will conduct lawful regulation, firmly safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, and uphold justice and fairness in the market." 'STRIP CHINESE CONTROL' A deal involving COSCO would be a "loud reaffirmation of China's geopolitical influence across the global maritime trade and transport sector, and of its effective leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S.," Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Reuters. "Beijing's disapproval clearly forced Hutchison to back off and change tack — and not merely in the optics of the transaction, but in its basic structure and national ownership." Should the deal proceed, it would be a crucial off-ramp for CK Hutchison, with the Americans wary of COSCO's growing maritime heft that could undermine U.S. national security. There could also be further blowback amid ongoing and complex bilateral trade talks. Some analysts say the Panama ports, in particular, will be a focus for the Trump administration, and could be taken out of the transaction to meet U.S. strategic interests. "The inclusion of this behemoth Chinese central state-owned enterprise as an owner seems like it should be a non-starter for the Trump administration seeking to strip Chinese control and restore some kind of American suzerainty over the Canal Zone," added Kardon. The CK Hutchison assets up for sale span the globe, including ports in Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Barcelona in Spain, Felixstowe in the United Kingdom, Mexico, Poland and the Bahamas - enlarging Beijing's global shipping networks and options at a time of great trade and tariff uncertainties. "At the moment they (Beijing) are in a place generally where they want to assert themselves and say, hey, don't mess with us," said Andrew Cainey, a senior associate fellow with the defence and security thinktank RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) in London. "If the U.S. were to come back and object to it, China could try to block the deal or demand more (from CK Hutchison)." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
New Drug, New Direction: J&J Moves Deeper Into Late-Stage Therapeutics
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is one of the . On July 21, 2025, J&J submitted a New Drug Application to the U.S. FDA for icotrokinra, an oral peptide therapy targeting moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in patients aged 12 and older—signaling a strong late‑stage R&D pipeline with growth potential beyond consumer staples or medtech divisions. On the analyst front, Guggenheim recently raised its price target from $164 to $167, while holding a Neutral rating in mid‑July 2025. The modest upgrade shows confidence in J&J's strategic balance between innovation and defensive income streams. Emilio100 / Despite being broadly diversified across consumer health, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices, J&J is relatively insulated from trade‑war volatility. Its supply chains are diffuse, production is localized in multiple markets, and it sources materials from global partners across regions less exposed to high tariffs. That allows J&J to preserve margin power and delivery continuity across geopolitical shifts. Johnson & Johnson is a global healthcare conglomerate spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products. Known for its scale and scientific depth, it operates in over 60 countries. While we acknowledge the potential of JNJ as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: and . Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Economy ME
17 hours ago
- Business
- Economy ME
Stock markets gain momentum as U.S. indices hit record highs amid mixed investor sentiment
Investors around the world were digesting a mix of optimism and uncertainty following a historic stretch of record closes in U.S. indices and crucial geopolitical developments. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite began trading on Tuesday near their highest levels ever, continuing a pattern of modest gains that culminated on Monday with both indices closing at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened just off its late 2024 peak, following a slight dip in the previous session. Internationally, both the MSCI World Index and European markets opened slightly lower, pausing after a strong upward run the prior week. Asian markets opened on a weaker note Tuesday as enthusiasm about the U.S.-EU trade deal faded and investors turned cautious amid a data-heavy week U.S.-EU trade announcement The focus remained on the U.S.-EU trade accord finalized over the weekend. Under this agreement, EU tariffs are set to drop to 15 percent—down from a planned 30 percent scheduled to start August 1. This announcement calmed fears of an escalating trade war and was a clear positive for multinational corporations, particularly automakers and manufacturers with cross-Atlantic supply chains. However, internal criticism—especially from France, which labeled the deal a 'submission'—highlighted ongoing disagreements within the European Union and kept investors cautious. With the U.S. still negotiating tariff deals with Canada and Mexico, and China talks ongoing, trade risks continue to hover just beneath the surface, potentially influencing market sentiment as the week unfolds. Read more: U.S. and EU strike tariff deal: Stock markets surge, euro rises as trade tensions ease Corporate earnings: Tech sector in focus Tuesday marks the beginning of a packed calendar for corporate earnings, with the spotlight firmly on America's top technology firms. Investors are closely monitoring reports from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta for clues about the health of the tech sector—one of the most significant drivers behind the Nasdaq's recent surge. Strong guidance or surprise profits from these firms could extend the upward momentum, while any disappointment risks triggering a swift reversal. Fed awaited All eyes are also on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which convenes its July meeting on Wednesday. While the majority expectation is for rates to remain unchanged, investors are parsing every statement for hints of dovishness. With fresh PCE inflation data and critical jobs numbers due this week, even a subtle shift in the Fed's tone could ignite market moves, especially given the widespread anticipation of a continued 'higher-for-longer' rate environment. Despite record equity highs and resilience since the April 2025 sell-off, investors remain wary. The unresolved status of U.S.-China trade negotiations—and the threat of tariffs returning in mid-August—underscore the fragility of the current bullish sentiment.
Khaleej Times
19 hours ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dubai: DXB reports record number of passengers in H1 2025 despite disruptions
Dubai International Airport (DXB) airport announced on Tuesday that it had received 46 million passengers in the first six months of 2025, marking its busiest first half on record, despite disruptions in traffic in May and June due to geopolitical tensions. The world's largest international airport saw 2.3 per cent growth year-on-year during the January-June 2025 period. The world's largest international airport said it received 22.5 million passengers in the second quarter alone, an increase of 3.1 per cent over the same period last year. According to Dubai Airports, April was the busiest month of the quarter and the most active April on record, with 8 million passengers.
