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Russia Today
10-07-2025
- Business
- Russia Today
Namaste, Mr. Putin: Russia and India forge closer ties despite Western pressure
As Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India for the two nations' 23rd bilateral summit later this year, experts in both countries are actively formulating proposals ahead of the trip. Mutual trust remains the cornerstone of the Russian-Indian partnership – a quality that has become even more significant in recent years as both countries navigate global turbulence and shifts in the world order. In the current geopolitical landscape, Moscow-New Delhi relations go beyond a bilateral framework and contribute an important element of continuity and stability to international relations and the global economy. A group of Russian and Indian experts has come together to take a fresh look at the India-Russia relationship. Their ideas have been compiled in a new book published earlier this year by Indian publishing house Har-Anand Publications, titled 'India and Russia: Enduring Trust in a Transformational Era'. The book is edited by renowned expert Dr. Lydia Kulik, head of India Studies at the Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO and senior research fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The publication also received support from Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, diplomatic affairs editor at The Economic Times. 'This edition is a selection of opinions from Russia and India providing a fresh look at the relationship that is of utmost importance to the people of our two civilization-states, as well as to the world undergoing profound change,' Kulik told RT. She added that the purpose behind the book was to assess the evolution of bilateral ties from the Soviet era to the pivotal year of 2024, when relations experienced an unprecedented boost. The book addresses the full spectrum of bilateral relations – from traditional pillars of the partnership to emerging areas of cooperation. The contributing authors are renowned scholars and experienced practitioners from both countries, ensuring that the recommendations offered are both research-based and practically applicable. The authors also point out gaps in the relationship, including the absence of a systematic approach to developing science and technology cooperation. Pankaj Saran, convener of NatStrat and former Indian ambassador to Russia, offers a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the bilateral relationship. He concludes that India-Russia ties will endure despite current geopolitical challenges, including Russia's confrontation with the West and its deepening ties with China. Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that 'Moscow appreciates India's foreign policy based on the pillars of strategic autonomy.' She argues that while India called for Russia to halt its special military operation in Ukraine, it abstained from voting on several UN resolutions condemning Russia's actions – including one at the UN General Assembly on the seizure of Ukrainian territory and a proposal to remove Russia from the Human Rights Council. 'In its strategic orientations, the Indian leadership is increasingly striving to ensure the country's important position not only in the South Asian region, but also at the level of global international relations, aiming to globalize its political thinking and real policy as India's economic, technological, and military power strengthens,' she writes. Shaumyan, a distinguished Russian Indologist and recipient of India's Padma Shri award, also analyzes the prospects and limitations of India-Russia cooperation in multilateral platforms such as the SCO, RIC, and BRICS. Experts highlight the significance of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's official visit to Moscow in July 2024. It was his first visit to Russia since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 – and his first bilateral trip after being re-elected in June 2024. Leyla Turayanova, junior research fellow at the Center for the Indo-Pacific Region of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), concludes that India-Russia relations have withstood the stress test imposed by the Ukraine crisis, while their economic ties have significantly expanded. At the same time, New Delhi has demonstrated its commitment to multi-alignment despite growing engagement with the West in recent years. Practical issues affecting India-Russia relations are also addressed. A team of authors including Julia Melnikova (program manager for Asia and Eurasia at the Russian International Affairs Council), Natalia Viakhireva (head of Canadian Studies at the Georgy Arbatov Institute for US and Canadian Studies), and Gleb Gryzlov (program coordinator at RIAC), explores the issue of connectivity. According to them, the post-2022 expansion of bilateral trade has made India a key stakeholder in Russia's connectivity projects, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor. At the same time, the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route are emerging as new frontiers in the partnership. Sergey Komyshan, executive director and board member of SIBUR, analyzes trade and investment prospects through the example of Reliance Sibur Elastomers Private Ltd. – a successful joint venture that showcases the potential of India-Russia industrial cooperation. He also highlights new areas for collaboration, including mutual integration of payment systems, cooperation in carbon credits, and water recycling. Aaryaman Nijhawan, international relations researcher and analyst, discusses the future of military-technical cooperation, drawing lessons from the Ukraine conflict. He identifies untapped opportunities such as joint drone development, anti-drone systems, and semiconductor manufacturing. Olga Ustyuzhantseva and Ivan Danilin of IMEMO RAS emphasize the rising importance of bilateral science and technology ties, driven in part by India's rapid high-tech growth. However, challenges remain, including vague institutional frameworks, limited investment, and a lack of integration between business and innovation ecosystems. The authors stress the need to shift from state-driven initiatives to private-sector-led partnerships and greater involvement of startups and SMEs. Cooperation in the financial sector – which became especially urgent after Western sanctions on Moscow – is examined by Sergey Storchak, senior banker at and former Russian deputy finance minister. He emphasizes that current geopolitical challenges require deeper bilateral financial engagement, including trade in national currencies, secure and fast cross-border payments, and integration of financial messaging systems. Anna Kireeva, associate professor at MGIMO and senior research fellow at its Institute for International Studies, places the India-Russia partnership within a broader Russia-India-ASEAN context. She proposes new formats for cooperation, such as strategic dialogue on policy and security, joint arms production, maritime security, and the formation of technological alliances. Aleksei Zakharov, research fellow at the Center for Indian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, agrees that Russia's approach to South Asia is evolving – from a narrow India-centric view to a broader engagement with other regional powers. He notes that while India remains central to Russia's regional strategy, South Asia as a whole is becoming a zone of expanded diplomatic and economic interest for Moscow. As President Putin prepares to visit India, a new expert volume explores the enduring strength, emerging challenges, and strategic depth of bilateral ties.
Times of Oman
27-06-2025
- Business
- Times of Oman
India's economy and exports seen resilient despite the geo-political developments in West Asia
New Delhi: The limited trade exposure to Israel and Iran, coupled with proactive engagement on infrastructure and technology, ensures that the ongoing conflict does not impact India's economic ambitions. As the world navigates an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical landscape, India offers a rare blend of economic resilience and policy foresight, anchoring its role as a stable force in the global economy. The global economy in 2025 continues to be clouded by geopolitical volatility, tariff tensions, and region-specific conflicts. Yet, amid the storm, India stands out as an exception, demonstrating resilience and stability in both economic performance and external trade. The deepening crisis in West Asia, particularly between Israel and Iran, has had little to no visible impact on India's economic trajectory or its export performance. Supported by robust fundamentals and prudent policymaking, the Indian economy has not only withstood external shocks but also shown encouraging growth signals across sectors. Indian Economy Remains Steady Amid Global Uncertainty Despite the global uncertainty stemming from geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, and financial tightening in developed economies, the Indian economy continues to expand steadily. According to the latest data, India's GDP growth in Q4 of 2024–25 has remained strong, signalling the continuation of a resilient growth path. The economy has benefited from a confluence of factors such as macroeconomic stability, effective fiscal management, and growing domestic demand. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has reached a three-year high in 2024-25, reflecting strong investor confidence in India's long-term potential. In the current year, 2025-26, the April FDI inflows were at USD 8.8 billion, manufacturing and business services accounted for half of the gross FDI inflows. Simultaneously, India's merchandise exports have touched an all-time high in 2024-25, contributing positively to the current account and boosting industrial production. India's exports grew at 2.7% in the month of May 2025, showing significant resilience despite global headwinds. Inflation, a key concern for many economies, has eased significantly in India, falling to a seven-year low due to well-managed food supplies, lower core inflation, and the Reserve Bank of India's calibrated policy stance. GST collections also hit an all-time high in May 2025, underlining robust consumption and formal sector expansion. On the capital markets front, Indian equities have performed steadily despite external pressures, supported by domestic inflows and improving corporate earnings. As India enters the new fiscal year, expectations of a good monsoon, rising rural demand, and improved credit flows to consumers and producers are poised to reinforce growth momentum. Private Sector Gains and Rural Boost Reinforce Momentum India's private sector activity surged in June 2025, hitting a 14-month high, a clear indication of expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 58.4, while the services PMI climbed to 60.7 — a 10-month high in June 2025. This uptick is attributed to strong domestic demand, increasing export orders, and favourable cost conditions for inputs. Enterprises across both sectors reported not only improved sales and higher new export orders but also increased hiring, a sign of expanding production capacities and confidence in business prospects. With inflationary pressures softening, firms are better positioned to maintain pricing power while offering competitive goods and services globally. In parallel, the rural economy is also showing promising signs. By June 20, 2025, Kharif sowing had increased by 10% over the same period last year, reaching 13.2 million hectares. The enhanced progress of the monsoon has particularly benefitted crops like rice and pulses, ensuring greater income support for rural households. While cotton sowing has slightly declined, the broader trend points toward an encouraging agricultural season. Strong Outlook for 2025–26 Amid External Headwinds S&P Global Ratings recently upgraded India's GDP growth forecast for FY2025–26 to 6.5%, citing favourable macroeconomic conditions such as a normal monsoon, declining global oil prices, and improved financial conditions. The report also notes that India's growth will continue to be driven by domestic demand, both consumption and investment, even as global exports face a slowdown due to weak external demand. While concerns remain over the sluggish global trade environment, India's well-diversified export portfolio and growing services trade offer a cushion. Additionally, the government's continued push toward infrastructure investment, ease of doing business, and Make-in-India initiatives are expected to strengthen the domestic industrial base and improve export competitiveness. No Impact of West Asia Conflict on India's Exports Despite the escalated hostilities between Israel and Iran, there has been no significant impact on India's exports to West Asia. This continuity can be attributed to India's well-managed port infrastructure, diversified export destinations, and strong bilateral mechanisms. Concerns over crude oil price volatility, often linked to Middle Eastern conflicts, have also been downplayed. Analysts believe that short-term fluctuations in oil prices are unlikely to have a major impact on India's macroeconomic stability, especially since India maintains adequate strategic reserves and benefits from hedging practices. These are temporary, event-driven fluctuations, they are unlikely to alter the long-term trajectory of India's energy or trade policies. Limited Trade Exposure to Israel and Iran A closer look at India's bilateral trade data further confirms that India's overall economic exposure to the Israel-Iran conflict remains limited. India's total trade with Israel and Iran during 2024–25 stood at approximately $3.7 billion each — a modest fraction of India's overall trade basket, which crossed $824 billion last fiscal 2024-25 India's exports to Iran primarily include rice, engineering goods , and petroleum products. On the other hand, exports to Israel are more diversified into gems and jewellery, engineering goods and electronic goods. On the import side, India majorly sources electrical machinery and precious stones from Israel. Imports from Iran are primarily agricultural and natural, comprising fruits, minerals & oil, and chemicals. Given the relatively narrow base of imports and exports with these countries, any disruption, even if it occurs, would have only a limited effect on India's aggregate trade flows. Strategic Engagement and Regional Connectivity India's relations with both Israel and Iran are not just transactional but strategically nuanced. In April 2025, India signed a revised agreement with Israel for agriculture cooperation, focusing on advanced technologies, R&D, and productivity enhancement. The agreement aims to establish more Centres of Excellence and bolster water-use efficiency and food processing , steps that have the potential to raise farmer incomes and improve product quality. With Iran, India's strategic interests are most visibly tied to the Chabahar Port Project. In May 2024, India and Iran inked a 10-year agreement for the operation of the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar Port. Under this arrangement, India Ports Global Limited (IPGL) will invest approximately USD 120 million in equipment and operations, and an additional USD 250 million in credit lines for other mutually agreed-upon infrastructure projects. This partnership holds immense potential for improving regional connectivity, especially toward Afghanistan and Central Asia, and strengthening India's presence in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Chabahar's growing significance offsets any perceived short-term trade disturbances. Conclusions In conclusions, India's macroeconomic stability and foreign trade momentum remain intact, despite the geopolitical turbulence in West Asia. The country has managed to insulate itself from the adverse external environment through diversification, strategic autonomy, and consistent economic reforms. With rising private sector activity, strong agricultural output, resilient exports, and record-breaking GST collections, India is well-positioned to continue its growth path in FY2025–26.
