Latest news with #grainfutures
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Grain Traders Await Key USDA Report on August 12. Big US Corn, Soybean Crops Expected.
Grain futures markets trading action may be muted on Monday ahead of what is arguably the data point of the month for the grain markets: Tuesday's USDA monthly supply and demand report. Huge and even record yields could be forecast for U.S. corn (ZCZ25) and soybean (ZSX25) crops. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect U.S. corn production this year at 15.991 billion bushels, with an average yield of 184.3 bushels an acre. The record for U.S. corn production, according to USDA, is the 15.186-billion-bushel crop grown in 2024, with a record average yield of 183.6 bushels per acre. The Dow Jones Newswires survey expects U.S. soybean production in 2025 at 4.371 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.0 bushels an acre. U.S. soybean production in 2024 totaled 4.37 billion bushels, which was also a record. The average yield per acre was 50.7 bushels, More News from Barchart What Game Is Being Played in Grains Early Monday Morning? Traders Sold the Rumor. Is It Time to Buy the Facts with Soybean Meal Here? Tightness in Coffee Supplies Underpins Prices Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Bearish USDA Data Expected for Corn and Soybeans, But… Price action in corn and soybean futures early last week saw significant selling pressure, with December corn hitting a fresh contract low and November soybeans scoring a four-month low. However, by the end of the week both markets had stabilized, suggesting that the bears had become exhausted, especially in the corn market. I suspect traders last week were factoring into futures prices the expected bearish USDA crop report on Tuesday. Such suggests that a classic 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' scenario may play out following Tuesday's crop report. U.S. Midwest Weather Still Leans Bearish for Corn, Soybeans Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is still non-threatening, with generally adequate soil moisture levels and rains still falling in the region. Weather forecasters say such will likely be the case for at least the next two weeks. There will also be a lack of widespread heat for at least another week. Warmer- to much-warmer-than-normal temperatures will be most common through the next week, but widespread, excessive heat is not expected, according to weather forecasters. August is arguably the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. Export Demand for U.S. Corn Picking Up Steam USDA last Friday reported another daily U.S. corn sale of 125,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year. Last Thursday, USDA reported weekly old-crop U.S. corn sales of 170,400 metric tons for 2024-25 for the week ended July 31, down 50% from the previous week and down 71% from the four-week average. However, new-crop corn sales totaled a solid 3.163 million MT. The 2025-26 marketing year corn export sales pace is now more than double the rate seen one year ago at this time. It may be difficult for corn market bears to continue to press the downside in corn futures if the U.S. corn export sales pace continues to be strong. October will find the U.S. corn harvest in full swing, and with a bumper crop expected, rallies and an extended price uptrend in corn futures will likely be limited by commercial hedging pressure. A better handle on the size of the U.S. crop will also come likely at that time, with combines rolling and yields from farmers rolling in. Soybean Meal Futures Providing Early Bullish Clues The soybean meal futures market had a good week last week, as spreaders unwound long bean oil (ZLU25), short meal (ZMU25) trades. If meal continues to perform well this week, that would be an early sign the soybean futures market has also put in a near-term low. Soybean bulls continue to anxiously await new-crop purchases from China. If the U.S. and China agree to a trade deal in the coming weeks or few months, the soybean market likely would get a significant price boost. Conversely, a deterioration in U.S.-China trade relations would be a bearish weight on the soybean futures complex. Wheat Market Bulls Are Still Struggling After swooning to contract lows last week, the winter wheat futures (KEZ25) (ZWZ25) markets posted decent rebounds Wednesday and Thursday and saw just modest corrective pullbacks Friday. Key for the bulls this week will be to show some price strength to better suggest near-term market price bottoms are in place. Wheat traders will be looking to the corn market for daily price direction. Tuesday's midday USDA supply and demand report is also in focus for wheat traders. The Dow Jones Newswires survey of grain analysts shows they expect all U.S. wheat production to come in at 1.925 billion bushels. U.S. wheat harvesting weather has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains is winding down. The Canadian Prairies wheat region has seen some dry weather that hurt wheat production potential. USDA last Thursday reported weekly U.S. wheat sales of 737,800 MT for the week ended July 31, up 25% from the previous week and four-week average. Sales exceeded pre-report expectations. U.S. wheat sales abroad will need to continue to improve in the coming weeks to get the winter wheat markets out of their slump and possibly begin sustainable price uptrends. U.S. winter wheat harvest will be mostly completed in the coming weeks, which suggests less commercial hedging pressure on futures prices. The wheat market bulls will be looking to new trade deals between the U.S. and other countries, including China, to potentially boost U.S. wheat export prospects in the coming months. Tell me what you think. I really enjoy getting emails from my valued Barchart readers all over the world. Email me at jim@ On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
It's Game Time for Grains: What to Watch as Critical Period for Corn, Soybeans Begins
Veteran grain futures traders argue that the months of July and August are the most important growing months for the majority of the U.S. corn (ZCZ25) and soybean (ZSX25) crops. This period is also important for U.S. wheat crops, as winter wheat (KEZ25) (ZWZ25) harvest has moved into full swing. To narrow down this timeframe further, the week immediately following the Fourth of July holiday tends to see existing price trends in the grain markets reversed or accelerated. And judging by price action in grain futures late last week, corn and soybean market bulls may be making a move. December corn futures prices scored a new contract low last Tuesday of $4.16 1/2 a bushel and bears were fully flexing their muscles. November soybeans also notched a two-month low in late June. However, price action in both markets showed impressive strength on Wednesday and Thursday, including technically bullish weekly high closes on Thursday. Markets were closed Friday for the Fourth of July holiday. Why the Grains Sector is "Feeling Down" Monday Brazil's Coffee Harvest Weighs on Prices Lean Hogs Are Starting to Stumble. Are Prices Set to Fall? Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. The bullish weekly high closes on Thursday are one chart clue that the corn and soybean futures markets have put in seasonal price bottoms. Key for the bulls will be to show good follow-through buying strength this week. Corn and soybean bulls are facing some stiff fundamental headwinds early this week. Price-bearish soaking rains over much of the Corn Belt during the weekend have both crops looking in very good shape, and they now have good soil moisture levels in case the Corn Belt rainfall spigot closes in the coming few weeks, which some forecasters predict will occur around mid-July. However, weather forecasts point to beneficial rains over much of the Midwest in the coming days, with seasonally warm temperatures. I live in west-central Iowa and the corn and soybean crops here have never looked better. Much of the corn crop is already nearing the seven-foot level. Corn pollination is already starting in some areas of the Corn Belt. Price action in the grain markets this week may indeed be pivotal. How the grain futures markets finish out the trading week on Friday (prices near weekly highs or near weekly lows), may well set price trends for at least the next month, if not the rest of the summer. As U.S. corn, soybean and wheat production estimates roll in this summer and traders get a better handle on crop size, attention will turn to demand. The USDA anticipates record U.S. corn use in the 2025-26 marketing year, which may help to offset the anticipated record U.S. corn crop. U.S. grain export demand remains a keen uncertainty in the marketplace, due to the unknowns regarding U.S. trade deals and with the U.S.-imposed deal deadline of July 9 approaching fast. The U.S. soybean export pace did pick up in last week. USDA reported a daily sale of 226,000 MT of old-crop soybeans and 195,000 MT of soymeal, suggesting the lower prices have prompted some better demand despite South America having fresh supplies to offer the world market. USDA's weekly export sales report showed a 15% rise in U.S. soybean sales in the latest reporting week, up 48% from the four-week average. The recent biomass biodiesel mandate has boosted the soybean oil (ZLU25) futures market. However, price action in soybean meal (ZMU25) futures has been very lackluster and meal prices need to show better strength soon, if the soybean market is going to sustain a price uptrend. Meal prices have recently hit multi-year lows, which may prompt some bargain buying in the export markets. With the U.S. winter wheat harvest moving into high gear, commercial hedge selling pressure may keep any gains in wheat futures prices limited in the near term. Wheat markets in the next several weeks will likely be more impacted by price action in the corn and soybean futures markets, as both of those crops are entering their more critical growth phases. The USDA reported last week that U.S. wheat export sales totaled 586,000 MT for 2025-26, within market expectations. U.S. wheat sales will have to improve in the coming months for futures prices to sustain uptrends. The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) last week fell to a 3.5-year low, which should make U.S. wheat (as well as U.S. corn and soybeans) more price-competitive for world trade. On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Zawya
09-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Funds' bearish sentiment on US grains and oilseeds hits nine-month high: Braun
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.) NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Speculators dug deeper into bear territory last week across U.S. grain and oilseed futures, and with this time of year known to feature plenty of uncertainties, investors must keep their eyes glued on upcoming weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt. In the week ended June 3, money managers' combined net short position across U.S. grain and oilseed futures and options surpassed 400,000 contracts, up more than 90,000 on the week. That marks their most bearish collective position since early September and their most bearish open to June in eight years. Just four months ago, the combined net long topped out at 300,000 contracts. Last week's move was driven by heavier selling in corn, soybeans and soybean oil. Money managers maintained bullish CBOT soybean oil bets through the week ended June 3, but they slashed their net long futures and options contracts by 22,000 to 31,990 contracts due to negative sentiment on the U.S. biofuels front. Money managers nearly erased bullish bets in CBOT soybean futures and options, reducing their net long to 8,601 contracts from 36,697 a week earlier. Funds' bearish soymeal position remained near-record large as prices have traded sideways over the last several weeks, and they also maintained sizable net shorts across the wheat flavors. CORN FOCUS Last week's net selling in corn was primarily driven by a large wave of new gross short positions, a trend that has been present in six of the last seven weeks. As of June 3, money managers' net short in CBOT corn futures and options hit a nine-month high of 154,043 contracts, up from 100,760 a week earlier. Recent heavy speculative selling in corn comes against the backdrop of a wildly strong U.S. export program and similarly robust U.S. ethanol grind. These factors have pared 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stock predictions significantly over the last year. However, the futures market does not seem to be reflecting a terribly tight situation. Late last week, CBOT July corn opened up a discount to December corn, not suggestive of imminent concern over supplies. Funds' building bearishness in corn as well as the newly established market carry could be hinting at the expectation that last year's U.S. corn crop was larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated. The agency's June 30 stocks report could potentially validate this notion. But in the meantime, traders will need to be watching the U.S. weather forecasts, which as of Friday suggested a potential dry spell for the western Corn Belt over the next two weeks. Heat risks were relatively low, though corn and soybean crop conditions are sitting at just average levels. In the week ahead, the market will be anticipating USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday, and traders expect a further contraction in old-crop U.S. corn supply. All eyes will turn toward London on Monday, where top U.S. and Chinese officials will hold talks aimed at resolving trade disputes. Pending the outcome, this could have markets starting off the week with a bang. But whether that trajectory is higher or lower is anyone's guess. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Writing by Karen Braun; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
Reuters
08-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Funds' bearish sentiment on US grains and oilseeds hits nine-month high
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 8 (Reuters) - Speculators dug deeper into bear territory last week across U.S. grain and oilseed futures, and with this time of year known to feature plenty of uncertainties, investors must keep their eyes glued on upcoming weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt. In the week ended June 3, money managers' combined net short position across U.S. grain and oilseed futures and options surpassed 400,000 contracts, up more than 90,000 on the week. That marks their most bearish collective position since early September and their most bearish open to June in eight years. Just four months ago, the combined net long topped out at 300,000 contracts. Last week's move was driven by heavier selling in corn, soybeans and soybean oil. Money managers maintained bullish CBOT soybean oil bets through the week ended June 3, but they slashed their net long futures and options contracts by 22,000 to 31,990 contracts due to negative sentiment on the U.S. biofuels front. Money managers nearly erased bullish bets in CBOT soybean futures and options, reducing their net long to 8,601 contracts from 36,697 a week earlier. Funds' bearish soymeal position remained near-record large as prices have traded sideways over the last several weeks, and they also maintained sizable net shorts across the wheat flavors. Last week's net selling in corn was primarily driven by a large wave of new gross short positions, a trend that has been present in six of the last seven weeks. As of June 3, money managers' net short in CBOT corn futures and options hit a nine-month high of 154,043 contracts, up from 100,760 a week earlier. Recent heavy speculative selling in corn comes against the backdrop of a wildly strong U.S. export program and similarly robust U.S. ethanol grind. These factors have pared 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stock predictions significantly over the last year. However, the futures market does not seem to be reflecting a terribly tight situation. Late last week, CBOT July corn opened up a discount to December corn , not suggestive of imminent concern over supplies. Funds' building bearishness in corn as well as the newly established market carry could be hinting at the expectation that last year's U.S. corn crop was larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated. The agency's June 30 stocks report could potentially validate this notion. But in the meantime, traders will need to be watching the U.S. weather forecasts, which as of Friday suggested a potential dry spell for the western Corn Belt over the next two weeks. Heat risks were relatively low, though corn and soybean crop conditions are sitting at just average levels. In the week ahead, the market will be anticipating USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday, and traders expect a further contraction in old-crop U.S. corn supply. All eyes will turn toward London on Monday, where top U.S. and Chinese officials will hold talks aimed at resolving trade disputes. Pending the outcome, this could have markets starting off the week with a bang. But whether that trajectory is higher or lower is anyone's guess. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Globe and Mail
19-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
What 3 Key ‘Outside' Commodity Markets Are Telling Us About Grains Prices This Week
Grain futures market prices are impacted daily and on a longer-term basis by how a select number of other important commodity markets are behaving. Let's look at three key 'outside markets,' their present price postures, and how they relate to corn (ZCN25), soybean (ZSN25), wheat (ZWN25) (KEN25), and oats (ZON25) futures. U.S. Dollar Index Bulls Working on a Price Uptrend The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) (DXM25) is a basket of six major global currencies weighted against the greenback. It's an important market for grain traders because most grain traded on world markets is priced in U.S. dollars. The USDX had been trending down from January to late April. That meant U.S. grains were less expensive to purchase on the world markets, in non-U.S. currency. However, present near-term chart posture for the USDX has turned bearish for grains. The USDX is presently in a price uptrend on the daily chart and prices last week hit a four-week high. If the USDX continues to trend higher, the upside potential for grain futures markets may be limited. Resumed and sustained USDX weakness would be bullish for grains. Crude Oil Trading Likely to Turn Choppier and More Sideways June Nymex crude oil futures (CLM25) made a good rebound from the early May low but late last week sputtered after the International Energy Agency lowered its global crude oil demand growth forecast. The lower outlook is due to broad economic uncertainty amid a global tariff war led by the U.S. and China. Also, the U.S. and Iran have been in talks to ease their tensions. The U.S. says Iran must stop its progress toward making a nuclear bomb or suffer dire consequences. The U.S., in turn, would lift economic sanctions on Iran, including its crude oil exports. It appears Iran is heeding the U.S. threat and wants to talk more about the matter. Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil would put significantly more crude oil on the world market. The factors mentioned above suggest less demand and more supply, which is price-bearish for crude oil. It's likely that Nymex and Brent crude oil futures prices will trade only sideways at best in the coming weeks or few months, barring a breakthrough on better global trade relations, which cannot be ruled out. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector and if crude can't sustain a price uptrend, then other raw commodity markets, including the grains, are also much less likely to do so. Conversely, uptrending crude oil prices would be a significantly bullish element for the grains as well as other commodities. Such could indeed occur in the coming weeks if the U.S. and its major trading counterparts, namely China, continue significantly easing trade tensions. U.S. Stock Indexes Are Rallying and That's Limiting Selling Interest in Grains The major U.S. stock indexes last week hit 2.5-month highs and are trending up. That strongly suggests better trader and investor risk appetite in the general marketplace and that's bullish for commodity markets, including the grains. If the U.S. stock indexes continue to trend higher, then speculative grain market bulls will be more compelled to play the long sides in grain futures. Significant selling pressure in the U.S. stock market would re-energize the grain market bears. My Bias on the Key Outside Markets Is Grain-Markets Bullish If U.S.-China trade relations continue to improve, and I believe they will, that would be stock-market bullish, USDX bullish and crude oil bullish. Trader and investor risk appetite would continue to improve. Given the turmoil in global markets leading up to the recent thawing in U.S.-China trade relations, it sure seems U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will want to keep the ball rolling on better trade relations. So, two of the three outside markets for grains would be bullish (higher oil and higher U.S. stock indexes), while one would be bearish (higher USDX). In such a scenario, I believe the outcome would be significantly more bullish for grains market futures than bearish.
