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Samsung, LG stand to benefit as BOE faces US OLED ban
BOE's exit may remove Apple's key price lever, easing margin pressure on Samsung, LG panels
Chinese display giant BOE Technology Group is on the verge of being pushed out of the US OLED market after a string of legal defeats to Samsung Display, a shift that could strengthen Samsung and LG's grip on the high-value organic light-emitting diode supply chain.
According to industry sources on Tuesday, the US International Trade Commission issued a limited exclusion order in July, barring BOE from exporting certain OLED products to the US for 14 years and eight months. The preliminary ruling concluded that BOE misappropriated trade secrets from Samsung Display, in violation of US intellectual property law.
This decision stems from a trade secret lawsuit filed by Samsung Display in October 2023. Industry insiders say the chances of the ruling being overturned in the final decision are slim. BOE had already lost a separate patent infringement case in March, also brought by Samsung.
BOE had steadily expanded its presence in the North American market, supplying OLED panels for key Apple devices such as iPhones, iPads and MacBooks. The Chinese company is estimated to hold around 10 percent of the US smartphone OLED panel market. However, the ITC's ruling could disrupt BOE's participation in global supply chains.
Samsung is expected to consolidate its dominance in the low-temperature polycrystalline oxide OLED segment, as BOE was found to have infringed on Samsung's LTPO driving technology patents. LG, which also supplies LTPO panels for Apple's iPhone Pro lineup, is likewise poised to benefit from BOE's likely retreat.
BOE has historically supplied 20-30 percent of iPhone OLED panels, or about 20 million to 30 million units annually, according to industry estimates. With BOE sidelined, Samsung and LG stand to absorb that demand, potentially boosting their profitability.
'The ruling will concentrate benefits on domestic panel makers, who already account for the majority of LTPO OLED shipments,' said Kang Min-koo, an analyst at IBK Securities.
The US is the world's largest IT consumer market and BOE's exclusion could result in a sharp deceleration of its growth trajectory. In contrast, Samsung and LG are likely to expand their share in the premium device segment led by Apple.
According to Omdia, in the first quarter of 2025, Samsung held 49 percent of the market share for iPhone OLED panel shipments, while LG and BOE held around 28 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
Industry experts anticipate that BOE's prolonged absence from the US will further solidify Samsung and LG's dominance within Apple's supply chain. BOE has typically supplied panels for older-generation and refurbished iPhone models sold in the US and its estimated annual volume of 20 million to 30 million OLED units could now be reassigned to its Korean rivals.
For Apple, BOE's role as a price leverage tool may also vanish. BOE, though lagging in technological prowess, was able to offer panels at lower costs thanks to state subsidies, giving Apple an edge in price negotiations with Korean firms. With BOE out of the picture, Samsung and LG may avoid price wars and maintain or even raise unit prices.
'BOE may face broader restrictions in doing business with US clients going forward,' said Kwon Min-gyu, an analyst at SK Securities. 'This could lead to stronger bargaining power for Korean panel makers when dealing with Apple, HP, Dell and other major US brands.'
The ITC's ruling is expected to send ripples throughout the OLED value chain, benefiting both Samsung and LG. Analysts forecast that investor sentiment and market response will become more visible following the ITC's final decision set in November.
Nam Sang-uk, associate research fellow at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade, noted that Apple's reaction will be the decisive factor.
'If Apple decides to completely halt the use of BOE panels not only in the US but globally, the implications will be sweeping,' he said.
'In particular, Samsung is likely to secure the lead supplier role in the foldable smartphone panel market, followed closely by LG. Such a scenario would be highly favorable for both firms.'
