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Indian ETFs fall on Trump's India tariff hike: A closer look
Indian ETFs fall on Trump's India tariff hike: A closer look

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Indian ETFs fall on Trump's India tariff hike: A closer look

The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) is falling after President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on India. Market Catalysts host Julie Hyman breaks down the latest. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. It is time now for this week's ETF report brought to you by Invesco QQQ. The iShares MSCI India ETF falling to session lows. That's after President Donald Trump announced he would impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from the Asian nation, that to be effective as of September 17th. The president imposing that additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil. The announcement coming hours after talks between Washington and Moscow over the war in Ukraine failed to yield a breakthrough. Trump has escalated his fight with India over trade, unilaterally imposing a tariff rate after months of negotiations failed to secure a deal. He accused New Delhi of refusing to ease access for American goods and criticized its membership in the BRICS group of developing economies. The ETF, known by its ticker INDA, fell as much as 1% following the announcement, although right now it has backed up off of those lows of the session, perhaps because there is a delay until these tariffs do go into effect, which would be a total of 50%, so maybe some optimism that there is a little time to continue negotiations. Related Videos It's 'entirely possible' bitcoin could fall below $100K by 2026 Why the alternatives market is growing so rapidly Trump's Fed gov. will be 'trial balloon' for Fed chair in 2026 Deflation in China is the 'single biggest' macro market factor Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Trump doubles India tariff to 50% to punish Russian oil buying
Trump doubles India tariff to 50% to punish Russian oil buying

The Star

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • The Star

Trump doubles India tariff to 50% to punish Russian oil buying

A train transporting oil tankers in Ajmer, India on July 7, 2025. - AFP WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over its ongoing purchases of Russian energy, escalating a fight with a key Asian partner on the eve of his broad-based duties taking effect. Trump signed an executive order setting the new rate, the White House said Wednesday (Aug 6), which will stack on top of a 25% levy on Indian imports Trump announced last week. The higher duty will take effect within 21 days, according to the order. The iShares MSCI India ETF fell to session lows after Trump's announcement. Oil prices jumped. India's rupee held steady at 87.91 per dollar in the offshore market. Trump's move came hours after talks between Washington and Moscow over the war in Ukraine failed to yield an immediate breakthrough. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said his nation is being unreasonably targeted by the US, defending consumption of Russian oil as necessary to support its economy. That hasn't proven convincing to Trump. "They're fuelling the war machine. And if they're going to do that, then I'm not going to be happy,' Trump said Tuesday in a CNBC interview. A spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs on Wednesday called Trump's announcement "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable' and vowed the government "will take all action necessary to protect its national interests.' Levies on imports from dozens of US trading partners are set to increase starting Thursday, including those from India, which will face the prior 25% charge. They're the centerpiece of Trump's effort to shrink trade deficits, revive domestic manufacturing and collect revenue for the federal government. The tariffs also carry risks for the global economy, including the prospect of higher costs and broken supply chains. Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said the latest move by the US is a "severe setback' for Indian companies as orders already have been on hold and "this additional blow could force exporters to lose long-standing clients.' - Bloomberg

Emerging ETFs Snap Winning Streak as Tariffs Weigh on Inflows
Emerging ETFs Snap Winning Streak as Tariffs Weigh on Inflows

Mint

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Mint

Emerging ETFs Snap Winning Streak as Tariffs Weigh on Inflows

(Bloomberg) -- Investors yanked cash out of exchange-traded funds that buy emerging market stocks and bonds last week, snapping nine weeks of inflows that reached $15.9 billion, amid renewed concern over the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff war. Outflows from US-listed emerging market ETFs that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $1.11 billion in the week ended Aug. 1, compared with gains of $2.36 billion in the previous week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. India led the reversal in flows, losing $298.2 million last week following withdrawals of $607 million from iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China. The almost $10 billion iShares MSCI India ETF recorded outflows of $21 million, marking the first weekly drop since April. This comes after Trump hit the South Asian nation with a 25% tariff last week, threatening additional penalties for its oil and military purchases from Russia. He criticized India for being a member of the 10-nation BRICS bloc, which he described as anti-US, and referred to both India and Russia as 'dead economies.' The MSCI India ETF dropped further on Monday after Trump announced 'substantially' higher tariffs on India. He didn't say how big the increase would be. 'Investor concerns about higher US tariffs on India and other emerging markets led to redemptions,' said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at TMX VettaFi. 'The risks of owning exposure to emerging markets has increased and for many is too much to stomach.' An official in New Delhi told Bloomberg News on Friday that the nation expects US trade negotiators to visit the country later this month to continue talks on a bilateral deal. The comment came before Trump's latest threat to hike the tariffs still further. India's currency, the rupee, is expected to remain one of Asia's worst performers in the second half of the year, with analysts at Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc forecasting the currency will drop to new record lows by the year-end amid muted foreign inflows and headwinds from US tariffs. 'In the near term, the 'handshake' nature of trade deals agreed so far means that tensions could resurface as the details are negotiated. Friday's punitive tariffs on a range of nations — including Switzerland — mean further urgent discussions lie ahead,' according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. Note: Figures are calculated by country weight using flows to US-listed ETFs. Bloomberg updated the screening criteria in November 2024. Use Bloomberg screening tools to create custom filters. Click here for Bloomberg's ETF screening applications. Click here for BI's Weekly Emerging Markets Fixed-Income Strategy Chart Pack Following are tables detailing net flows for emerging-market ETFs in US dollars. The data include the holdings-weighted allocations from multi-country funds, as well as country-specific funds. Latest and historic flows are allocated using latest fund weightings (figures in USD millions unless otherwise stated): Click here for Bloomberg's ETF Excel library. Europe, Middle East & Africa More stories like this are available on

India ETFs Slip After News of Strikes in Pakistan
India ETFs Slip After News of Strikes in Pakistan

Yahoo

time09-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

India ETFs Slip After News of Strikes in Pakistan

India exchange-traded funds softened Wednesday and Thursday after news that India hit multiple targets in Pakistan, but so far the weakness has been muted. According to news reports, India's military said these strikes were in response to a deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22 and that they targeted 'terrorist infrastructure' and were 'focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature.' Pakistan, however, called Wednesday's strikes 'an act of war.' The three biggest India ETFs by assets, the $9.1 billion iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), the $3.1 billion WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI) and the $2.1 billion Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN) were down about 1% on Wednesday and have started Thursday's trading on a back foot. Stock markets in India were also down. Many India-focused ETFs are flat to up on the year, with INDA up 2%, FLIN up 1.1% and EPI flat. Indian ETFs have had a strong run in the past few years as the country's economy has boomed. On a five-year annualized basis, EPI is up 23.2%, FLIN rose 19% and INDA is up 17.7%. The volatility is a reminder that emerging market ETFs are often subject to higher geopolitical risk than developed market ETFs for a variety of reasons. However, the Kashmir area which borders India, Pakistan and China is one of the most volatile regions globally. All three countries will end up having minor skirmishes at times, and sometimes those escalate, said Aniket Ullal, head of ETF research and analytics at CFRA Research. Ullal said the saber-rattling between the two countries bears watching, especially since both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons. So far, investors don't seem to be too worried about the situation, he added. 'India and Pakistan have always found a way to kind of navigate the conflict, and I think there's too much economically at stake for both players to escalate it beyond a certain point, unless something unpredictable happens,' he said. Ullal pointed to 2019, when India struck Pakistan in response to a bombing in Kashmir and Pakistan retaliated with its own airstrikes, according to news reports. At that time, the reaction in the stock markets was not overly bearish. If investors can stomach some geopolitical risk, Ullal said India has the potential for both short-term and long-term growth. Compared to other emerging markets, it has better domestic growth. And in the long term, it may be a beneficiary of the tariff regime under the Trump administration, which targets China more than other countries, he said. That could take longer to play out, he added. Ullal pointed to two India ETFs that are heavily focused toward India's domestic economy—the $316 million Columbia India Consumer ETF (INCO), which is down 0.6% year to date and up 20.6% on a five-year basis, and the $699 million iShares India 50 ETF (INDY), up 4.7% year to date and up 16.4% on a five-year | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Sign in to access your portfolio

CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Have India stocks bottomed?
CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Have India stocks bottomed?

CNBC

time24-04-2025

  • Business
  • CNBC

CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Have India stocks bottomed?

India's stock market seems to have gotten back its mojo. While the Nifty 50 index remains more than 7% below its all-time high reached on September 26. It has rallied about 10% since bottoming out on April 7, when trade tensions between the United States and China escalated. While concerns over the state of the global economy soured risk sentiment around the world, the slide in Indian equities began long before Donald Trump began his second mandate as U.S. president and trade tariffs dominated news headlines. Much of the pain for investors, though, has come from within. Valuations for stocks had risen while earnings flatlined, or worse, were deteriorating. At their peak, Indian large-cap stocks in the iShares MSCI India ETF were being valued at 30 times the earnings, significantly higher than their five-year average. However, the strong rally over the past two weeks raises the question of whether stocks have found a floor, and if investors are now looking past the short-term volatility. A key factor underpinning the market's resilience has been the unwavering support from domestic investors pushing funds into stocks through their systematic investment plans (SIPs). Despite foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling significant capital out earlier in the year, local institutions have stepped in, according to analysts at ICICI Securities. Vinod Karki, equity strategist at the bank, pointed out that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have so far poured in $3 billion in April, only marginally lower than the $3.2 billion in foreign fund outflows amid the trade war volatility. "Stock reaction during April'25 so far indicates that DIIs may have continued buying domestic-driven stocks (financials, industrials and consumption) while stocks related to global demand may have seen selling," Karki said. "Cash positions of active funds have risen further while SIP inflows were stable during Mar'25 – bodes well for market stability, assuming FPI selling intensifies." JPMorgan analysts echoed this sentiment in a note on HDFC Asset Management, one of the largest fund houses in the country. "The industry maintained positive new equity flows despite negative market movements in 4Q, demonstrating stability in domestic flows primarily driven by SIP contributions," said the Wall Street bank's analysts led by Harsh Wardhan Modi. India's fiscal year runs from April through March. Beyond flows, signs of improvement are emerging in specific sectors. ICICI Securities research also pointed to profitability "bottoming out" for companies in the mining and chemicals sector and to "fewer EPS downgrades" expected from analysts. CNBC Inside India's analysis reveals that analysts have steadily lowered their 2025 earnings per share expectations for Indian stocks by 10% over the past two years, setting up investors for a profitable surprise when companies beat estimates. On the geopolitical front, some analysts also hold the current global trade tensions, while serious, may offer more potential for resolution than did previous crises. ICICI's Karki said the current crisis could be fixed by politicians, unlike the global financial crisis or the pandemic, adding that "human interventions to avert a major global crisis" are still possible. Others agree. "Broadly, our stance on India being unfazed by the trade war stays, and we believe it will be 'relatively unfazed' in the short run while it could emerge as a beneficiary in the longer run if a trade deal materializes," said Bernstein's equity strategist Venugopal Garre in a note to clients. Despite the domestic optimism, significant hurdles remain, preventing the appearance of an 'all-clear' signal. The primary concern, echoed by multiple analysts, is the impact of the "global tariff war." Goldman Sachs said that the "investment activity is likely to remain subdued owing to the US 'reciprocal' tariff-related policy uncertainties." India's crucial IT sector, heavily reliant on Western markets, is likely to take a direct hit from such headwinds. IT outsourcing giants Wipro, Infosys, and HCL Technologies have consistently flagged weak guidance and heightened uncertainty impacting client spending. A JPMorgan analyst called HCL's performance a "rare feat" for simply being in-line — underscoring the challenging environment for the sector overall. However, as the green shoots for the market appear to be growing in the shadow of the trade war, the risks remain tangible. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Monday. In a statement from Modi's office, both leaders expressed "significant progress" in their discussions on bilateral trade and cooperation in areas such as energy and defense. Vance, who was in India on a mostly personal trip with second lady Usha Vance and his family, met Modi in New Delhi. Progress in India-U.S. trade deal. Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed hope that an India-U.S. bilateral agreement on trade could be reached "by the fall this year," according to comments made in San Francisco on Monday. The negotiations, which commenced Wednesday and conclude Friday, will be led by the country's new chief trade negotiator Rajesh Agrawal. Sitharaman also said New Delhi is aiming to lower the country's fiscal deficit below 4.5% of gross domestic product by financial year 2026 from 4.8% currently. Tesla is preparing to enter the Indian market. Speaking on an earnings call, CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed reports that the company is working on an expansion into India, adding that it would be a great market to enter, thanks to its "big middle class." Nevertheless, India is also "a very hard market," with EV imports into the country subject to a 70% tariff and about 30% luxury tax, he said, noting that this could make India-sold Tesla's twice as expensive. Indian stocks have continued their run up this week. The Nifty 50 index closed above 24,000 points for the first time since the end of January this year, heading for a 1.7% gain this week. The index turned positive and has risen 2.54% this year. The benchmark 10-year Indian government bond yield have continued to fall and are down to 6.3% this week. On CNBC TV this week, Hiren Dasani, co-head of emerging markets equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said India's domestic fundamentals are improving and economic growth appears to have bottomed out, making India a diversification play amid the broader market uncertainty. The Indian market is "one of the only few markets" that is up since U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed his "reciprocal" tariffs on April 2, Dasani observed. Meanwhile, Ruchit Mehta, head of research at SBI Mutual Fund, highlighted India's "fair solid domestic growth story," which he said is supported by strong consumption trends and by its advantage as a net importer amid global trade uncertainties. Mehta is also optimistic on the country's banking sector. The Indian initial public offering drought has some reprieve in the form of Tankup Engineers, a SME manufacturer of fuel storage solutions, listing on Wednesday. However, mainline IPOs have yet to make a comeback in India. April 25: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April, Japan's Tokyo consumer price index for April April 28: India industrial and manufacturing production for March April 30: Tankup Engineers IPO, U.S. personal consumptions expenditure index for March, flash GDP reading for Q1, euro zone flash GDP for Q1 May 1: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for April

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