Latest news with #intermodal
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Predicting the unpredictable for intermodal
Intermodal analyst Larry Gross says that normally he'd be able to draw on his 45 years of transportation experience to make predictions about freight volume in the months ahead. 'Theoretically, it would mean that I would be bringing some long-term insight to the situation that we find ourselves in today: You know, a sense that, well, the last time that this happened, here's how it went,' Gross said Tuesday during an Intermodal Association of North America webcast. But the past does not offer a road map for how intermodal traffic might perform while a trade war is raging. 'There is no 'last time' for some of what we're seeing right now,' Gross said. 'It's really a unique situation.' Shippers pulled forward their imports, particularly from China, in an attempt to beat tariff deadlines, which sent international container volume higher beginning late last year. Then when the Trump administration imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods in April, trade all but dried up, creating an air pocket of container volume bound for the says he was surprised it took as long as five to six weeks for the air pocket decline to hit U.S. railroads. 'We've only really seen it now for the past two or three weeks,' he said of BNSF and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) intermodal volumes. Now, with tariffs on Chinese goods reduced to 30% from May 12 through the middle of August, Gross is expecting a mini-surge in volume to begin in the middle of this month. 'It's not going to be … a huge volume, because even though 30% is a lot lower than 145%, it's still pretty significant,' Gross said of tariffs on Chinese goods. The hold on reciprocal tariffs, which vary by country and will remain in effect until at least July 9, means importers of goods made elsewhere also may try to rush containers to the U.S., he says. What happens to volume after these summer tariff-related deadlines depends on the next steps in trade talks. But it's trade with China, Gross says, that will have the biggest impact on U.S. intermodal makes up roughly half of all U.S. rail traffic. And North American volumes this year are running well ahead of 2024 levels as well as the 10-year average. U.S. intermodal volume is up 7% this year through May 24, while North American volume is up 5.8%, according to Association of American Railroads data. Overall, 41.3% of U.S. containerized imports come from China, Gross says, citing S&P Global PIERS data for 2024. Chinese imports make up 57.5% of containers handled by U.S. West Coast ports but just 25.6% of boxes that land at U.S. East Coast ports and 34.7% at Gulf Coast ports. 'To the extent that we have a trade war with China, the West Coast is going to feel it much more acutely than the East Coast,' Gross said. Making matters worse for the West Coast: Asian trade is flowing back to normal routings involving East Coast ports for two reasons. First, shipments were diverted to the West Coast last year amid labor uncertainty and a brief strike at East and Gulf Coast ports. Second, some shipments shifted to the West Coast to avoid danger on their normal route via the Red Sea, which was under threat by Houthi rebels in Yemen. This means that both international and domestic intermodal volume from Southern California will face headwinds after the mini-surge, Gross says. Some 15% of domestic container shipments out of Southern California carry goods that were transloaded from international containers, he estimates. This is bad news for BNSF and UP, which originate intermodal loads from West Coast ports. But it's not necessarily good news for Eastern carriers CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) or Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) because the intermodal share of imports is much lower at the East Coast ports they serve. It's unclear when trade disputes will be ironed out, Gross says, but he doesn't expect agreements to fall into place quickly. And that, he says, will mean lingering uncertainty for businesses and consumers alike. 'Uncertainty is the enemy of growth,' Gross said. Slowing growth, plus the potential for tariff-fueled inflation, could ultimately produce stagflation that will reduce consumer demand, he says. 'It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see a downturn in the second quarter and third quarter of this year,' Gross he expects domestic intermodal to eke out slight year-over-year gains for 2025 – if intermodal can continue to slowly regain market share from trucking. International volume, Gross says, likely will be flat to down this year. 'I certainly view more downside risk in that forecast than upside potential,' he said. The post Predicting the unpredictable for intermodal appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Carriers have a West Coast bias
Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Reject Index–Southeast, West Coast SONAR: Tender rejection rates (OTRI) for truckload shipments originating in the Southeast (URSE) surpassed 10% last week — marking the first time in nearly three years they've reached that level. In contrast, rejection rates for freight departing the West Coast (URWT) remain well below the national average and are the lowest among the seven major U.S. regions. This contrast is striking, especially given the current focus on imports and the Southern California ports that handle the bulk of U.S. container traffic. So, what can we learn from these diverging trends? Let's start with demand, the most logical first factor to examine. Tender volumes out of the Southeast are down 6% year over year, while West Coast volumes have declined 14% annually. While demand has held up better in the East, it hasn't increased meaningfully. This lack of significant growth suggests that demand alone is unlikely to be the root cause of the rejection rate disparity — at least not directly. As we've discussed previously, much of the long-haul freight demand from the West has shifted to rail, with intermodal capturing a large share from the truckload sector. Shippers have been bringing goods into the U.S. well ahead of fulfillment needs, allowing more flexibility in how freight is moved across the country. Loaded container volumes moving by rail (ORAILL) out of Los Angeles remain up year over year, even though they've dipped in recent weeks alongside declining import levels. Meanwhile, long-haul tender volumes (LOTVI) out of Los Angeles are down a staggering 26% annually. Intermodal is a slower but more cost-effective alternative to trucking — both attractive options in an environment of shrinking warehouse capacity and cost. In many cases, intermodal serves as a form of mobile storage. This shift helps explain part of the East-West truckload rejection rate disparity. Without sufficient transcontinental freight, carriers operating out West may find themselves stuck without balanced return loads. Despite the demand drop, some carriers may be gravitating toward the West Coast due to operational advantages. The average length of haul out of Los Angeles still exceeds 800 miles — down from 900 miles last year — which can result in better truck utilization and higher revenue per load. Rates are also compelling. According to SONAR's TRAC and invoice data, spot rates in many major Southern California lanes are at or above $3 per mile. Current averages include $3.29 to Denver, $2.97 to Salt Lake City and $2.92 to Phoenix. In contrast, rates from Atlanta to Chicago averaged about $1.78 last week (a 24% increase from the week prior). Atlanta to Harrisburg — typically an expensive, high-volume lane — was $2.42, while loads to Dallas were averaging $1.94. While rates per mile aren't directly comparable due to differing lane lengths and demand imbalances, it's clear that carriers are earning higher margins per load out West — even with lower demand. Utilization is a key driver of carrier profitability, though it's not directly visible in macro-level data. Without enough transcontinental freight to rebalance trucks, carriers may end up taking any available load — or staying in the West, drawn by stronger rates. Tender data also shows where markets are tightening the most. The latest key market trends map highlights tightening in the Savannah, Georgia, and Jacksonville, Florida, areas, along with Houston (outside the Southeast but still port-influenced). All are heavily impacted by maritime freight. The final wave of import pull-forward activity in April reached the East Coast in early May. This could be straining capacity, especially if much of that freight is moving through the spot or transactional markets, which may not be fully captured in tender data from a demand perspective as it is heavily biased toward contractual agreements. While much of this analysis is inferred, one point is clear: A significant reduction in truckload capacity over the past year has made the market more vulnerable. Even with a somewhat bearish outlook for demand, the truckload sector appears increasingly reactive — and poised for volatility. The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on for future reference. SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time. The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience. To request a SONAR demo, click here. The post Carriers have a West Coast bias appeared first on FreightWaves.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hub Group price target lowered to $45 from $52 at Stifel
Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Hub Group (HUBG) to $45 from $52 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Intermodal pricing is under broad pressure as squishy demand has begotten a softer contracting environment with shippers opportunistically pulling bids forward, but the firm thinks Hub has been managing costs well, and an additional $40M in cost-out offers some cushion, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note. Discover companies with rock-solid fundamentals in TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter. Receive undervalued stocks, resilient to market uncertainty, delivered straight to your inbox. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See the top stocks recommended by analysts >> Read More on HUBG: Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Operational Resilience and Strategic Growth Drive Buy Rating for Hub Group Hub Group's Q1 2025: Steady Earnings Amid Revenue Dip Hub Group (HUBG) Q1 Earnings Cheat Sheet Hub Group Positioned for Growth Amid Challenges: Buy Rating Reaffirmed by Analyst Christopher Kuhn Hub Group price target lowered to $40 from $49 at Benchmark
