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U.S.-China trade war is a battle to build walls
U.S.-China trade war is a battle to build walls

Washington Post

time25-07-2025

  • Business
  • Washington Post

U.S.-China trade war is a battle to build walls

The Trump administration wants to enlist Southeast Asian countries to build a giant wall around China. The idea is to reduce the countries' reliance on Chinese supply chains, ween them off Chinese exports, and get them to stop letting China transship goods through their ports to evade U.S. tariffs. This was a major point in President Donald Trump's recent trade deal with Vietnam, which imposes a 40 percent tariff on transshipped goods, almost all of which come from China. The Asian countries themselves, meanwhile, are talking about building a different kind of wall — a wall of self-reliance to insulate themselves from the unpredictable trade moves emanating from Washington. Asian leaders now talk incessantly about the need to increase intra-Asian trade as a counterweight to their overreliance on the American market. In April, President Xi Jinping spoke in favor of uniting the 'Asian family.' Chinese officials call this expanding the country's 'circle of friends.' And many Asians outside China seem to agree. 'We need to fortify our internal foundations,' Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations earlier this month. 'Trade more among ourselves, invest more in one another, and advance integration across sectors with resolve.' So whose wall is more likely to be built? China is clearly expanding its Asian trade. For more than a decade, it has been Southeast Asia's largest trading partner. China is right next door, after all, and has 1.4 billion consumers. And its long-standing trade ties appear to be deepening. In the first five months of this year, trade with Southeast Asia jumped more than 9 percent. In June, China's Southeast Asian exports surged by 16.8 percent year-over-year. Also, anecdotal evidence suggests that intra-Asian trade is growing. In Bangkok, anyone who calls for a GrabCar — the regional equivalent of Uber — is likely to get picked up in a new Chinese-made BYD or Aion electric car, rather than a Tesla. Japanese retail stores like Uniqlo, Isetan, Sogo and Muji dominate regional shopping malls. South Korean LG and Samsung, and Chinese Haier are the top-selling appliance brands. Sales of Chinese Xiaomi and Huawei smartphones now rival those of Apple iPhone. Of course, trade flows in both directions. Southeast Asian textiles, durian, frozen shrimp, rice, coconuts and other delicacies are finding their way onto a growing number of Chinese dinner tables, including in the hinterlands, thanks to China's new 21st century 'Maritime Silk Road.' Then there's Asia's undeniable cultural 'wall.' K-pop, Korean dramas and Korean beauty products are winning fans across the region. 'Squid Game' topped Netflix charts across Asia. But this is not to say that Asia might succeed in walling itself off from America. Steven Okun, an expert on international trade who is the CEO of APAC Advisors, a Singapore-based consultancy, explained the reality to me. 'First,' he said, 'the larger economies' — meaning South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia — 'are too exposed to the U.S. market and there is no replacing it.' 'Second, the countries are at least as afraid, if not more, of China coming in and dumping all their excess capacity into their markets — just as China has done to the U.S.,' Okun said. 'If any walls get built, it will be to keep the Chinese out.' In other words, the United States remains the global behemoth, a veritable vacuum for consumer products. American household spending hit an eye-popping $19 trillion in 2023 — double the figure for the European Union and nearly triple that of China. What's more, for many in Asia, the risk of becoming overly dependent on Beijing looms large. Indonesia has been actively strengthening its various antidumping laws, and recently even banned e-commerce giant Temu over fears it would destroy local businesses. Thailand is eyeing anti-circumvention duties on a host of imported products, mostly from China. Asians want to benefit from China's growth but avoid being crushed by its economic might. Trump's wall relies on rallying allies who are deeply dependent on the global economy and wary of China. China's wall relies on promoting regional self-sufficiency as a counterweight to Washington's unpredictability. Look for regional economic integration to increase. Two-way trade numbers will go up. There will be more Chinese smartphones, appliances and electric vehicles in Asian cities. But America's market dominance looks set to persist for years to come. Asian countries won't be able to wall themselves off anytime soon.

Malaysia sees container spillover as shippers reroute from China
Malaysia sees container spillover as shippers reroute from China

New Straits Times

time20-06-2025

  • Business
  • New Straits Times

Malaysia sees container spillover as shippers reroute from China

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian ports are expected to maintain high container volumes in the coming months, despite a 90-day 'grace period' granted by the United States to China for tariff renegotiations. Maritime scholar and commentator Nazery Khalid said Malaysia has experienced positive spillover effects from US tariffs on China, particularly at its ports. These ports have benefited from the rerouting of containers carrying finished and semi-finished goods originally destined for the US. He told Business Times that many American importers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), are cancelling orders or refusing shipments from China. Consequently, these containers are either unclaimed at US ports or sent back. Nazery explained that faced with higher costs, these SMEs prefer to abandon the cargo rather than absorb the tariffs or pass the added costs to customers, which could harm their businesses. Concurrently, containers turned back or those that never leave China for the US are redirected to other countries, including Malaysia, which also imports many finished and semi-finished goods from China. "This has resulted in several Malaysian container ports reporting an increase in throughput volumes in the months following the announcement of US tariffs on China. "A large share of these containers comes from intra-Asian trade, mainly from Chinese ports, which dominate the list of the world's top 20 busiest container ports by volume," he added. Nazery said while a rebound in US-bound containers from China is expected once the grace period ends, it is likely to occur towards the end of the third quarter of this year. This is because shippers and shipping companies sailing from China to the US are 'frontloading' their cargoes and services ahead of the 90-day 'breathing period' expiry. In the interim, he said Malaysian ports are likely to continue handling higher-than-usual container volumes over the next two to three months, until seaborne trade between the US and China stabilises following the disruption caused by the tariff standoff. He noted that the 90-day window granted by the US expires in mid-August, making it unlikely for normal trade flows between the two economic superpowers to resume before then. However, due to US President Donald Trump's unpredictability, it remains unclear what he will do after the 90-day trade embargo against China ends. "Should he stick to his 90-day timetable, container bookings, shipping services, and freight rates in the Trans-Pacific trade between China and the US can be expected to rebound from current lows. "Malaysian ports will likely cease to enjoy the purple patch of container spillover and return to handling normal container throughput volumes once order has been restored between the US and China," Nazery said. *Seizing opportunity amid uncertainty* Malaysia's maritime industry could face both challenges and opportunities if global supply chains shift due to US-led efforts to reduce reliance on China. Nazery said Trump's administration could push American firms to "re-shore" production closer to home in a bid to revive domestic manufacturing and reduce their reliance on China. He said that while such a change would take time, given the well-established global supply chain order that has taken decades to build, Malaysian exporters and logistics providers risk losing long-standing business with US companies seeking shorter, localised supply chains. "Our ports and logistics service providers could also find themselves handling fewer US-bound cargoes should the re-shoring shift of suppliers from Asia Pacific or Southeast Asia to the US or to neighbouring countries or regions materialise," he added. However, Nazery said the disruption could also drive Malaysian firms to innovate and climb the value chain. Rather than producing low-cost goods easily replaced elsewhere, he said local companies may focus on higher-value, specialised products. "The US-China tariff war could also motivate Malaysian ports, shipping companies, and logistics service providers to upgrade their infrastructure and strengthen their human capital. "This, in turn, would help them improve efficiency, productivity, service quality, and cost competitiveness, ensuring they remain relevant and are not bypassed, regardless of future developments," he added. Regionally, Nazery said Malaysia can use its Asean chairmanship to drive several key initiatives. These include boosting intra-Asian trade, deepening economic integration, and enhancing Asean's appeal as a destination for foreign direct investment. He added Malaysia can also work to strengthen governance, reduce trade barriers, harmonise trade rules, and promote good regulatory practices and transparency. "The decoupling of the US economy from China could become a powerful force that reshapes Asean," Nazery said. "It may allow the region to fully realise its potential, assert itself as a significant player on the global stage, and demonstrate its readiness and resilience in facing shocks such as the tariff war and its geopolitical impacts." *Strategies to boost maritime competitiveness* To remain competitive in today's increasingly borderless, hyperconnected, and digitalised global economy, Nazery said Malaysia must transform into a more value-adding, knowledge-based, and innovation-driven economy. He noted that despite Malaysia's strategic location and access to major shipping lanes, the country's economy remains heavily reliant on assembling low-value goods and exporting raw materials, missing out on downstream opportunities. He cited national initiatives like the National Smart Manufacturing Plan under the New Industrial Master Plan 2030 and the National Fourth Industrial Revolution Policy as positive steps to automate and modernise manufacturing and enhance industrial capabilities. However, he stressed that the critical success factors identified to attain the objectives of those plans must be executed steadfastly to ensure they are met. These include establishing a supportive ecosystem that offers incentives, improves infrastructure, develops human capital, and promotes the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies and solutions. He added that policymakers, ports, shipping companies, logistics service providers, shipyards and other maritime industry players must work more closely together. Their collaboration is essential to keep Malaysian ports attractive to global shipping lines and to strengthen the country's integration into global supply chains. "In this way, we can shield ourselves better from the vagaries of the VUCA (vulnerabilities, uncertainties, complexities, and ambiguities) landscape and minimise the impact of game-changing global events like the tariff tiff, or even position ourselves to benefit from them. "All these must be done without compromising the need to safeguard the environment, practise good governance, and adhere to international standards and rules, as long as they do not conflict with our policies and our national and strategic interests," Nazery said.

OCBC's Helen Wong bags ‘outstanding CEO' at SBA; credits ‘one group' banking approach
OCBC's Helen Wong bags ‘outstanding CEO' at SBA; credits ‘one group' banking approach

Business Times

time23-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

OCBC's Helen Wong bags ‘outstanding CEO' at SBA; credits ‘one group' banking approach

[SINGAPORE] Being a basketball player in her youth imbued Helen Wong with a strong belief in the power of teamwork, something she has carried over to her role as chief executive of OCBC. Wong said the combination of people with the right capabilities and the same ambition can bring about maximum value. Hence, when she led OCBC's corporate strategy refresh in 2022, the Hong Kong-born banker put forward a plan to leverage OCBC's strength across Asean and Greater China – through a 'one group' approach. That is, to provide an integrated customer experience across the financial group's business through collaboration across each of its functions. 'When people can work together, your client trusts you even more, because everything they do with us becomes smoother,' Wong said in an interview with The Business Times. Wong became the first woman to head one of the Big Three Singapore banks, when she was appointed OCBC's group CEO in April 2021. SEE ALSO TDCX founder Laurent Junique wins top prize at 40th Singapore Business Awards GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up VIEW ALL This marks her second stint at OCBC – she first joined as a management trainee in 1984. A former HSBC veteran who spent most of her career in Hong Kong, her previous role as CEO for Greater China at HSBC largely involved linking China and Hong Kong to the rest of the world, Wong said. Then came OCBC, which was founded in 1932 and has long been present in both the Asean and Greater China regions, especially the two financial centres of Singapore and Hong Kong. Wong said she always saw opportunities to connect the two regions, given the backdrop that intra-Asian flows have been dominant since 2015. Asean has become a 'much more important' trading partner for China, since the US-China trade conflict started almost 10 years ago. At OCBC, Wong's strategy focuses on trade, investment flows and wealth growth in Asia. Wealth, she said, was an especially important driver, given the rising affluence in the region. The focus has paid off. Since the launch of the corporate strategy refresh, OCBC has seen record earnings each year. Net profit was a record S$5.7 billion in 2022; it reached a new high of S$7 billion in 2023; and the record was beaten once again in 2024 at S$7.6 billion. And the 'one group' approach has led the bank to grow at a faster compound annual growth rate (CAGR) than its peers, she said. Another contributor is the influx of Chinese companies expanding to Asean as they build their supply chains and expand into domestic markets. While Wong acknowledged that OCBC benefited from higher interest rates in recent years, she said it was crucial to invest in the bank's capabilities to build an operation that can function regardless of the rate environment. 'It is not just the presence; it's whether you have the ability to link it up,' Wong said. Linking people is always the most challenging, as most people are familiar with their own domestic markets and are comfortable operating in them. 'But we are allowing our people to understand more – that you can have a bigger conversation with your customers, you can help them, and you can speak in one language,' she said. 'And today, after a couple of years of effort, I can see that people truly feel that we are together as one group – and this is both the frontline and the support units.' Growth across the bank Wong was named Outstanding Chief Executive of the Year at the Singapore Business Awards on Thursday (May 22). Under her leadership, OCBC made significant progress in various areas, including its Asean and Greater China links, sustainability targets, talent development and technology investments. But this was not without effort. The bank had to relook at its organisational structure, and implemented the metric, 'collaboration dollars' – a measure of the level of cooperation among staff. It relaunched its brand, putting all its operations across Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong and China under the single 'OCBC' brand. For staff, it created messaging about the bank's purpose, values and ambition, and trained them to collaborate. 'We built a very clear responsibility grid, which means that for a relationship manager: if you are able to create value in other countries, even not in your local book, you are recognised,' she said. This led to the use of artificial intelligence and technology, and resulted in significant process improvement. By 2024, as much as 15 per cent of its total income was attributable to collaboration dollars. Meanwhile, Wong noted five focus areas to achieve its sustainability goals: building capabilities for customers; training staff; targeting net zero for internal operations; disclosure policies; and coming up with innovative solutions. 'We have a task force for all five areas, and after one or two years, it becomes business as usual,' she said, noting that sustainable finance made up 16 per cent of its total book as at the end of 2024. 'Setting the tone is also for the whole top team to walk the talk. Because we believe in it, we support it, then everybody is aligned,' she added. Future targets The year 2025 marks the end date for OCBC's three-year goal to earn S$3 billion in additional revenue from its Asean-Greater China strategy. While Wong does not have exact targets beyond this, the plan does not stop there. 'We have a corporate strategy of eight pillars; whatever we have done will set the stage for this money to continue to come in,' she said. Beyond 2025, Wong said, 'the opportunities are still indeed in this part of the world'. Chinese companies continue to come to Asean. But the new wave is also not so much in low-cost manufacturing – as these bases have already been established – but more so in targeting the fast-growing economies of this region. Wong is also eyeing the 'banking wallet' – which is the estimated revenue for banks across Asean and Greater China. From 2023 to 2030, she expects the banking wallet in Asean to grow at a CAGR of 5 to 7 per cent, to reach S$500 billion to S$600 billion. 'A lot is about looking into the future and building a strategy to make sure we have the investments to pull people together,' she said. 'It's not a slogan; it is not just something that people say.'

Banking across Asean and Greater China as ‘one group'
Banking across Asean and Greater China as ‘one group'

Business Times

time22-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

Banking across Asean and Greater China as ‘one group'

[SINGAPORE] Being a basketball player in her youth imbued Helen Wong with a strong belief in the power of teamwork, something she has carried over to her role as chief executive of OCBC. Wong said the combination of people with the right capabilities and the same ambition can bring about maximum value. Hence, when she led OCBC's corporate strategy refresh in 2022, the Hong Kong-born banker put forward a plan to leverage OCBC's strength across Asean and Greater China – through a 'one group' approach. That is, to provide an integrated customer experience across the financial group's business through collaboration across each of its functions. 'When people can work together, your client trusts you even more, because everything they do with us becomes smoother,' Wong said in an interview with The Business Times. Wong became the first woman to head one of the Big Three Singapore banks, when she was appointed OCBC's group CEO in April 2021. SEE ALSO TDCX founder Laurent Junique wins top prize at 40th Singapore Business Awards GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up VIEW ALL This marks her second stint at OCBC – she first joined as a management trainee in 1984. A former HSBC veteran who spent most of her career in Hong Kong, her previous role as CEO for Greater China at HSBC largely involved linking China and Hong Kong to the rest of the world, Wong said. Then came OCBC, which was founded in 1932 and has long been present in both the Asean and Greater China regions, especially the two financial centres of Singapore and Hong Kong. Wong said she always saw opportunities to connect the two regions, given the backdrop that intra-Asian flows have been dominant since 2015. Asean has become a 'much more important' trading partner for China, since the US-China trade conflict started almost 10 years ago. At OCBC, Wong's strategy focuses on trade, investment flows and wealth growth in Asia. Wealth, she said, was an especially important driver, given the rising affluence in the region. The focus has paid off. Since the launch of the corporate strategy refresh, OCBC has seen record earnings each year. Net profit was a record S$5.7 billion in 2022; it reached a new high of S$7 billion in 2023; and the record was beaten once again in 2024 at S$7.6 billion. And the 'one group' approach has led the bank to grow at a faster compound annual growth rate (CAGR) than its peers, she said. Another contributor is the influx of Chinese companies expanding to Asean as they build their supply chains and expand into domestic markets. While Wong acknowledged that OCBC benefited from higher interest rates in recent years, she said it was crucial to invest in the bank's capabilities to build an operation that can function regardless of the rate environment. 'It is not just the presence; it's whether you have the ability to link it up,' Wong said. Linking people is always the most challenging, as most people are familiar with their own domestic markets and are comfortable operating in them. 'But we are allowing our people to understand more – that you can have a bigger conversation with your customers, you can help them, and you can speak in one language,' she said. 'And today, after a couple of years of effort, I can see that people truly feel that we are together as one group – and this is both the frontline and the support units.' Growth across the bank Wong was named Outstanding Chief Executive of the Year at the Singapore Business Awards on Thursday (May 22). Under her leadership, OCBC made significant progress in various areas, including its Asean and Greater China links, sustainability targets, talent development and technology investments. But this was not without effort. The bank had to relook at its organisational structure, and implemented the metric, 'collaboration dollars' – a measure of the level of cooperation among staff. It relaunched its brand, putting all its operations across Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong and China under the single 'OCBC' brand. For staff, it created messaging about the bank's purpose, values and ambition, and trained them to collaborate. 'We built a very clear responsibility grid, which means that for a relationship manager: if you are able to create value in other countries, even not in your local book, you are recognised,' she said. This led to the use of artificial intelligence and technology, and resulted in significant process improvement. By 2024, as much as 15 per cent of its total income was attributable to collaboration dollars. Meanwhile, Wong noted five focus areas to achieve its sustainability goals: building capabilities for customers; training staff; targeting net zero for internal operations; disclosure policies; and coming up with innovative solutions. 'We have a task force for all five areas, and after one or two years, it becomes business as usual,' she said, noting that sustainable finance made up 16 per cent of its total book as at the end of 2024. 'Setting the tone is also for the whole top team to walk the talk. Because we believe in it, we support it, then everybody is aligned,' she added. Future targets The year 2025 marks the end date for OCBC's three-year goal to earn S$3 billion in additional revenue from its Asean-Greater China strategy. While Wong does not have exact targets beyond this, the plan does not stop there. 'We have a corporate strategy of eight pillars; whatever we have done will set the stage for this money to continue to come in,' she said. Beyond 2025, Wong said, 'the opportunities are still indeed in this part of the world'. Chinese companies continue to come to Asean. But the new wave is also not so much in low-cost manufacturing – as these bases have already been established – but more so in targeting the fast-growing economies of this region. Wong is also eyeing the 'banking wallet' – which is the estimated revenue for banks across Asean and Greater China. From 2023 to 2030, she expects the banking wallet in Asean to grow at a CAGR of 5 to 7 per cent, to reach S$500 billion to S$600 billion. 'A lot is about looking into the future and building a strategy to make sure we have the investments to pull people together,' she said. 'It's not a slogan; it is not just something that people say.'

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