Latest news with #intrinsicvalue
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Fair Value Of Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE)
The projected fair value for Ameren is US$91.75 based on Dividend Discount Model Current share price of US$96.88 suggests Ameren is potentially trading close to its fair value Our fair value estimate is 11% lower than Ameren's analyst price target of US$103 Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We have to calculate the value of Ameren slightly differently to other stocks because it is a integrated utilities company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. The dividend is expected to grow at an annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We then discount this figure to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.4%. Relative to the current share price of US$96.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate) = US$3.2 / (6.4% – 2.9%) = US$91.8 Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ameren as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Ameren Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average. Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Integrated Utilities market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows. Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Ameren, we've put together three further aspects you should further research: Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ameren (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about. Future Earnings: How does AEE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
At UK£57.85, Is It Time To Put Spirax Group plc (LON:SPX) On Your Watch List?
Spirax Group plc (LON:SPX), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the LSE, rising to highs of UK£79.15 and falling to the lows of UK£54.45. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Spirax Group's current trading price of UK£57.85 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at Spirax Group's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change. We've discovered 1 warning sign about Spirax Group. View them for free. According to our valuation model, Spirax Group seems to be fairly priced at around 5.8% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Spirax Group today, you'd be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company's true value is £61.40, then there isn't much room for the share price grow beyond what it's currently trading. What's more, Spirax Group's share price may be more stable over time (relative to the market), as indicated by its low beta. View our latest analysis for Spirax Group Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 22% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Spirax Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation. Are you a shareholder? SPX's optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven't considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value? Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on SPX, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it's worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Spirax Group, and understanding this should be part of your investment process. If you are no longer interested in Spirax Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
