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Was This Summer's Healthy Job Market A Mirage?
Was This Summer's Healthy Job Market A Mirage?

Forbes

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Forbes

Was This Summer's Healthy Job Market A Mirage?

This is a published version of Forbes' Careers Newsletter. Click here to subscribe and get it in your inbox every Tuesday. After two months of seemingly healthy growth in the job market, the American workforce grew slower than expected in July. Only 73,000 nonfarm jobs were created last month, a dismal showing compared to the 115,000 analysts expected, while unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%. But that's not all: The Labor Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics—the government bodies charged with producing the monthly jobs report—revised their estimates for May and June employment down by 258,000 jobs in total. And it's not just a lack of new jobs hurting the U.S. labor market. Job cuts this year have already surpassed all of 2024, according to career services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Private and public employers have eliminated 806,000 jobs in the first six months of the year, largely driven by DOGE cuts to federal agencies and grants, concerns about President Donald Trump's tariffs and yes, AI. The disappointing labor report sent waves through Wall Street and the White House. Trump went as far as firing BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Biden-era appointee, in a move that has been criticized by many, including former Trump-era BLS chief William Beach. So what does all of this mean for those still looking for a new job? It's important to recognize the industries that are still adding jobs, like health care and social assistance. But for those working outside those fields, senior contributor Caroline Castrillon recommends seeking out contract work while you broaden your skills and network for full-time opportunities. Happy reading, and hope you have a lovely week! WORK SMARTER Practical insights and advice from Forbes staff and contributors to help you succeed in your job, accelerate your career and lead smarter. AI hiring tools can overlook top talent—here's how hiring managers can make sure they're still finding the best candidates. ChatGPT is coming for Excel. What does this mean for your job? Heads up, introverts: This is how AI can help you stand out to your boss. DEEP DIVE: Should You Scrub Your Social Media Before Beginning Your Job Hunt? Between the Trump Administration declaring private accounts a red flag for foreign student visas and prospective employers using AI to seek out fake applicants, the old rules are becoming obsolete. Forbes' Fiona Riley and I spoke to university counselors, employment lawyers and startup founders to figure out what job seekers should do. For years, the advice to graduates and job seekers when it came to their social media presence was straightforward: Delete your personal accounts or at least make them private, and work on building a professional LinkedIn network. But following that advice today could hurt your job prospects. The State Department now requires international students to make their accounts public to allow a review of their 'entire online presence.' Not only is content or activity that is 'hostile' to the U.S. government or culture worthy of a red flag, but even the absence of social media accounts could be held up against a visa applicant, as it could be viewed as a possible effort to evade scrutiny of their true views. 'You're damned if you do post, damned if you don't,' one international student who requested anonymity because she fears undermining her own immigration status tells Forbes. U.S.-born students and job seekers have reason to worry, too, as a lack of a social media presence can also hurt during verification processes. Employers are increasingly dealing with an influx of fake candidates, aided by the rise of AI. The technology is now so advanced that a novice AI user can create a fake applicant profile—social media pages and all—in just 70 minutes. So it makes sense that many employers are turning to pre-screening tools that use publicly available information to verify an applicant's authenticity. So is the new advice to post or not to post? To scrub your page or to leave it as is? It's a tough balancing act, especially when your online professional presence—like your LinkedIn profile—and personal brand can be more important than your résumé. Read the full piece for more tips here. TOUCH BASE News from the world of work. Boeing defense workers are on strike for the first time since 1996 after the union rejected the company's latest contract offer. The 3,200 unionized employees walked out of Boeing's factories in St. Louis and St. Charles, Missouri and Mascoutah, Illinois, where they assemble crucial missile systems and aircrafts, including the F-15 and F/A-18. Behind athletes' multimillion dollar paydays are the agents negotiating player contracts, brand partnerships and additional deals—all for a hefty cut. Topping Forbes' ranking of the Most Powerful Sports Agents in North America for 2025 is Scott Boras, who negotiated Juan Soto's contract with the New York Mets. Boras is set to earn $244 million in player commissions on nearly $5 billion in active player contracts. Meta has reached a new high in its bid to recruit top talent for its AI lab. According to Wired, one offer to an employee at Thinking Machines Lab, the startup founded by former OpenAI CEO Mira Murati, included a billion-dollar compensation package spread over a multi-year plan. Meta, however, has denied the staggering number. A new AP poll found that fewer Americans perceive racial discrimination against Asian and Black Americans than in 2021. The poll also found that more Americans are skeptical of DEI policies and programs, which have been targeted by the Trump Administration. NUMBER TO NOTE 154,000 VIDEO Venture Capitalist's Advice To Young Workers: Slow Down QUIZ As President Trump considers a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term is not up until May 2026, which current cabinet member is no longer on the shortlist? A. Vice President JD Vance B. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent D. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy Check if you got it right here.

Michael Eisenga, CEO of First American Properties, Issues Statement on June Jobs Report: 'Don't Be Fooled by the Headline'
Michael Eisenga, CEO of First American Properties, Issues Statement on June Jobs Report: 'Don't Be Fooled by the Headline'

Associated Press

time03-07-2025

  • Business
  • Associated Press

Michael Eisenga, CEO of First American Properties, Issues Statement on June Jobs Report: 'Don't Be Fooled by the Headline'

COLUMBUS, Wis., July 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In response to today's release of the June 2025 employment report, Michael Eisenga, CEO of First American Properties, cautioned policymakers and investors against overconfidence in the labor market's apparent stability. While the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June exceeding expectations, Eisenga emphasized that this number masks troubling undercurrents in the workforce. This report also is an interesting contrast to the ADP report which represents a more real time actual payroll database. 'On the surface, today's report looks encouraging,' said Eisenga. 'But dig deeper, and you'll find clear evidence of a cooling private-sector engine, sluggish hiring appetite, and shrinking workforce participation. We should be sounding the alarm, not celebrate.' This is especially the case when contrasting today's report with yesterday's ADP report, both can't be correct. According to ADP Research, private sector payrolls fell by 33,000 in June, following a revised gain of only 29,000 in May. Additionally, service providers, which have driven much of the post-pandemic recovery, cut 66,000 jobs, particularly in professional services, and health care. Out of the 147,00 jobs created 73,000 of them were government related jobs. Small and mid-sized businesses are reducing headcounts, suggesting tight margins and increased caution in future hiring. According to ADP, average payroll growth has slowed dramatically to just 18,700 jobs for the past 3 months up to May. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that hiring plans in June were the second worst since 2004. 'Businesses are not panicking, but they are clearly becoming more cautious,' Eisenga said. 'Layoffs aren't skyrocketing, but employers are holding back on replacements and new hires. That tells you confidence is slipping.' Labor force exits are also accelerating. The U.S. labor force shrank by 625,000 in May and another 130,000 in June, meaning between May and June, a combined 755,000 Americans exited the labor force, many likely due to retirement or more concerning exhausting their unemployment benefits. This mass exodus is not reflected in the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, down from 4.2%. Accordingly, the unemployment rate did not drop because more people found jobs, but because fewer people are showing up on the stats due to the government's definition of dropping out of the workforce. 'A lower unemployment rate driven by workforce exits is not progress, it's smoke and mirrors,' Eisenga warned. 'We're seeing clear signs of job-hunting taking more time and a weakening path for consumer spending and growth.' The number of people currently receiving unemployment benefits stands at 1.964,000, just shy of the 2-million mark. Hiring breadth is narrowing, and early regional employment data shows softening trends. Eisenga echoed recent calls from economists and Federal Reserve officials urging a pivot in Fed policy, including potential interest rate cuts as early as July. 'The Fed cannot afford to ignore these warning signs,' Eisenga said. 'The revisions and participation trends demand action. A proactive stance by the FED is long overdue.' Eisenga concluded by urging business leaders, investors, and policymakers not to take headline numbers at face value: 'The real story is beneath the surface. If we wait for the next round of downward revisions to confirm what we already see forming, it will be too late.' Media Contact: Michael S. Eisenga, CEO First American Properties [email protected] (920) 350-5754

U.S. applications for jobless aid fell to 233,000 last week as layoffs remain low
U.S. applications for jobless aid fell to 233,000 last week as layoffs remain low

Al Arabiya

time03-07-2025

  • Business
  • Al Arabiya

U.S. applications for jobless aid fell to 233,000 last week as layoffs remain low

Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as layoffs in the US remain low despite uncertainty about how tariffs will impact the economy. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims for the week ending June 28 fell by 4,000 to 233,000–less than the 241,000 that analysts forecast. Applications for unemployment aid are considered a proxy for layoffs. In a separate report Thursday, the Labor Department reported that US employers added 147,000 jobs in June–a sign that the American labor market continues to show surprising resilience despite uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic policies. The job gains were much bigger than expected, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in May. Analysts had forecast that unemployment would rise to 4.3 percent. While layoffs remain historically low, many companies have announced job cuts this year, including Procter & Gamble, Workday, Dow, CNN, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, and Facebook parent company Meta. On Wednesday, Microsoft announced that it is laying off about 9,000 workers–its second mass layoff in months and its largest in more than two years. Earlier this month, Google confirmed that it had offered buyouts to another swathe of its workforce in a fresh round of cost-cutting ahead of a court decision that could order a breakup of its internet empire. The Labor Department's unemployment benefits report showed that the four-week average of claims, which evens out some of the weekly volatility, fell by 3,750 to 241,500. The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits the week of June 21 held steady at 1.97 million.

May Jobs Report Reveals Steady Unemployment And Stable Job Growth
May Jobs Report Reveals Steady Unemployment And Stable Job Growth

Forbes

time06-06-2025

  • Business
  • Forbes

May Jobs Report Reveals Steady Unemployment And Stable Job Growth

The U.S. labor market exhibited signs of relative strength in May, according to the Labor Department's monthly jobs report released Friday morning, as questions swirl about economic uncertainty in the face of tariffs and high interest rates. The U.S. added 139,000 nonfarm jobs from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said. Consensus economist estimates pegged May job growth at 125,000, according to Dow Jones data. The unemployment rate was 4.2% last month, meeting forecasts of 4.2%, the level it stood in March and April. Job growth was strongest in the healthcare and food services sectors, while federal government employment contracted by 22,000, according to the report. The government revised down prior March and April job growth estimates by 65,000 and 30,000, respectively, meaning job growth over the last three months was actually 81,000 positions weaker than anticipated prior to Friday's release when combined with the better-than-expected May data. Friday's jobs report came two days after a secondary labor market measure, ADP's private employment update, flashed a worrisome signal, as the payroll processor reported the weakest monthly private sector job growth in more than two years. How tariff uncertainty or any further signs of economic weakness will weigh on unemployment. JPMorgan Chase economists predict the unemployment rate will peak next year at 4.8%, the highest level since August 2021. When excluding the 2020-21 blip during the COVID-19 pandemic, that would be the highest unemployment since October 2016 during the waning days of the Obama administration. The unemployment rate 'will be closely watched in coming months to parse out the supply (immigration restrictions) vs. demand (impact of trade uncertainty and DOGE actions) shocks to the labor market,' Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra wrote in a Wednesday note to clients.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures stuck in holding pattern with labor data on deck
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures stuck in holding pattern with labor data on deck

Yahoo

time05-06-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures stuck in holding pattern with labor data on deck

US stock futures marked time on Thursday as investors waited for further labor data and tariff-deal developments to relieve the uncertainty around the impact of President Trump's trade push. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) drifted just above the flat line after the blue-chip index snapped a four-day win streak on Wednesday. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also little changed. The mood is subdued as markets watch for fresh catalysts after this week's stock rally lost steam on Wednesday. Downbeat data on private-sector hiring growth and the services sector have stoked concerns that the US economy is starting to feel negative effects from Trump's sweeping tariffs. Eyes are now on a weekly update on jobless claims and the Challenger job cuts report for May, as well as productivity and labor cost data. The readings will prepare the ground for Friday's release of the closely watched May jobs report, which economists say will offer the "first real look at how the labor market is faring under a rapidly changing trade environment." Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Meanwhile, China's curbs on rare-earth exports have emerged as a key front in the trade war. The US auto parts industry warned of "serious, real-time risks" as it called for immediate action, as Ford (F) and carmakers overseas put production of some models on pause. On the corporate front, Lululemon (LULU) and Broadcom (AVGO) are due to report quarterly results on Thursday as earnings season winds to a close. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in eight months during the final full week of May while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis continued to hover near its highest level in nearly four years as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 247,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending May 231, up from 239,000 the week prior and above economists' expectations for 235,000. Meanwhile, 1.904 million continuing claims were filed, down slightly from 1.907 million the week prior and near the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. Silver surged to its highest level since February 2012, rising about 4% to above $36 an ounce on Thursday morning. Gold also rose 0.5% as demand for the metals remained strong. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. As millions of people flooded into the stock market over the past few years, understanding of the things that move markets seems to have made noticeable progress. Not, however, for bonds, notes Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban: Read more here in today's Morning Brief. Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), DocuSign (DOCU), Lululemon (LULU), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Duluth Trading (DLTH), Land's End (LE), Petco (WOOF), Rubrik (RBRK), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending May 31); Continuing claims (week ending May 24); Challenger job cuts (May); Nonfarm productivity (first quarter final); Unit labor costs (first quarter final) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Bonds are 'boring' — but they're critical to focus on right now US plans wider China tech curbs targeting subsidiaries 401(k) savings rate hit a record in first quarter: Fidelity US business optimism slumps in 'clear pivot' from Trump election Tesla: Musk may be changing his tune on EV tax credits Trump tariffs: China's rare-earth broadside hits its target Tide maker Procter & Gamble is slashing 7,000 jobs Amazon tests humanoid robots to replace delivery workers: Report Procter & Gamble (PG) said Thursday it will cut 7,000 jobs — or around 6% of its global workforce — as it grapples with rising tariff-related costs and shifts in demand from penny-watching shoppers. The consumer products giant's two-year restructuring plan also calls for the dropping of certain product categories and brands, Reuters reported. Shares in P&G were little changed in premarket trading as investors assessed the news from the world's largest consumer goods company. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Tesla (TSLA) stock fell over 1% in premarket trading on Thursday following CEO Elon Musk's latest attack on President Trump's tax bill. Musk said: "Call your Senator, Call your Congressman, Bankrupting America is NOT ok! KILL the BILL," Musk posted on X. PVH Corp (PVH), the owner of designer brand Calvin Klein, stock dropped 8% before the bell after cutting its profit outlook for the year, citing weakness in the US, China and tariffs. Zac Coughlin, Chief Financial Officer, said, 'We are reaffirming our revenue guidance for the year but are decreasing our outlook for profitability and earnings per share to reflect that backdrop and the current performance of our business." Robinhood (HOOD) stock rose 1% following Bank of America (BAC) saying the online brokerage is a "prime candidate" to enter the S&P 500 Index in the rebalancing set to be announced Friday. Broadcom (AVGO) stock rose 1.4% in premarket trading ahead of second-quarter earnings report, due for release later today. Optimism in the current state of the US economy and of US businesses has seen a rapid decline throughout 2025. After a sharp peak following President Trump's reelection, hope for a stable economy has been in free fall, dropping 40% in less than six months. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in eight months during the final full week of May while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis continued to hover near its highest level in nearly four years as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 247,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending May 231, up from 239,000 the week prior and above economists' expectations for 235,000. Meanwhile, 1.904 million continuing claims were filed, down slightly from 1.907 million the week prior and near the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. Silver surged to its highest level since February 2012, rising about 4% to above $36 an ounce on Thursday morning. Gold also rose 0.5% as demand for the metals remained strong. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. As millions of people flooded into the stock market over the past few years, understanding of the things that move markets seems to have made noticeable progress. Not, however, for bonds, notes Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban: Read more here in today's Morning Brief. Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), DocuSign (DOCU), Lululemon (LULU), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Duluth Trading (DLTH), Land's End (LE), Petco (WOOF), Rubrik (RBRK), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending May 31); Continuing claims (week ending May 24); Challenger job cuts (May); Nonfarm productivity (first quarter final); Unit labor costs (first quarter final) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Bonds are 'boring' — but they're critical to focus on right now US plans wider China tech curbs targeting subsidiaries 401(k) savings rate hit a record in first quarter: Fidelity US business optimism slumps in 'clear pivot' from Trump election Tesla: Musk may be changing his tune on EV tax credits Trump tariffs: China's rare-earth broadside hits its target Tide maker Procter & Gamble is slashing 7,000 jobs Amazon tests humanoid robots to replace delivery workers: Report Procter & Gamble (PG) said Thursday it will cut 7,000 jobs — or around 6% of its global workforce — as it grapples with rising tariff-related costs and shifts in demand from penny-watching shoppers. The consumer products giant's two-year restructuring plan also calls for the dropping of certain product categories and brands, Reuters reported. Shares in P&G were little changed in premarket trading as investors assessed the news from the world's largest consumer goods company. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read more here. Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Tesla (TSLA) stock fell over 1% in premarket trading on Thursday following CEO Elon Musk's latest attack on President Trump's tax bill. Musk said: "Call your Senator, Call your Congressman, Bankrupting America is NOT ok! KILL the BILL," Musk posted on X. PVH Corp (PVH), the owner of designer brand Calvin Klein, stock dropped 8% before the bell after cutting its profit outlook for the year, citing weakness in the US, China and tariffs. Zac Coughlin, Chief Financial Officer, said, 'We are reaffirming our revenue guidance for the year but are decreasing our outlook for profitability and earnings per share to reflect that backdrop and the current performance of our business." Robinhood (HOOD) stock rose 1% following Bank of America (BAC) saying the online brokerage is a "prime candidate" to enter the S&P 500 Index in the rebalancing set to be announced Friday. Broadcom (AVGO) stock rose 1.4% in premarket trading ahead of second-quarter earnings report, due for release later today. Optimism in the current state of the US economy and of US businesses has seen a rapid decline throughout 2025. After a sharp peak following President Trump's reelection, hope for a stable economy has been in free fall, dropping 40% in less than six months. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. 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